Russia's Military Expansion

[gazzzwp]

Russia has gained the Crimean EEZ. The zone probably has trillions of dollars worth of oil and natural gas deposits. Dmitri Trenin has started saying Russoa become a great power again. He use to follow the Western elite line that Russia is declining power. The Asian part of Russian has massive freshwater resources. Russia is one biggest grain exporters in the world, and has resources for massive future growth in its arigcultural industry.

Russia's vast natural resources are well known and accepted. None of the things you have mentioned however are likely to do the nation much good at the present time with a vast and unnecessary rearmament program underway and with the threat of worsening sanctions and trade restrictions with the wealthier nations.

 

[Feanor]

Russia's vast natural resources are well known and accepted. None of the things you have mentioned however are likely to do the nation much good at the present time with a vast and unnecessary rearmament program underway and with the threat of worsening sanctions and trade restrictions with the wealthier nations.

Well the agricultural sector is doing quite well. Their exports are on a drastic rise, and it's not inconceivable that Russian agricultural exports will eclipse natural gas exports within the next couple of decades. Clearly that does much good.

But honestly the re-armament program is neither as vast nor as unnecessary as you think.

 

[Kirza_rus]

Haha, you think there could ever be an economic alliance between Russia and EU?

I can tell you, that the great part of Russian elite is dreaming about getting part of Europe as close as possible, even Putin in his early was part of this elite. And this part of elite can give up many things if this union would be promised. And nothing of this wouldn't happened if somebody wouldn't start building NATO bases closer and closer to Russian borders. You just have to react on that. Russian elite believed that it had a agreement with USA, that NATO bases will go no further than Germany after USSR was gone. The agreement failed, the dream of Russian elite of becoming part of Europe like Germany and France failed, and that's where true reasons lie.

(I am from Russia)

 

[gazzzwp]

I can tell you, that the great part of Russian elite is dreaming about getting part of Europe as close as possible, even Putin in his early was part of this elite. And this part of elite can give up many things if this union would be promised. And nothing of this wouldn't happened if somebody wouldn't start building NATO bases closer and closer to Russian borders. You just have to react on that. Russian elite believed that it had a agreement with USA, that NATO bases will go no further than Germany after USSR was gone. The agreement failed, the dream of Russian elite of becoming part of Europe like Germany and France failed, and that's where true reasons lie.

(I am from Russia)

Thank you for your input. To help me understand because I honestly do not understand:

How does the fact of small defensive forces in the Baltics and the Eastern nations pose an existential threat?

 

[gazzzwp]

Well the agricultural sector is doing quite well. Their exports are on a drastic rise, and it's not inconceivable that Russian agricultural exports will eclipse natural gas exports within the next couple of decades. Clearly that does much good.

Maybe you are correct Feanor:

Russia expected to return to growth in 2017: IMF

An expected return to growth in 2017 albeit slow in the order of 1%.

 

[Kirza_rus]

How does the fact of small defensive forces in the Baltics and the Eastern nations pose an existential threat?

Firstly as I mentiond, there were and agreement that there will be no NATO expansion. (please watch this video, so i wont seem liyng - youtube watch?time_continue=5&v=dW3DWgMAwz0). This agreement was absolutly fundamentual for strategical plans of russian elite that contributed into the end of USSR and became the main power in Russia after that.

You have to understand - its is not the CIA that defeated USSR, it was part of russian elite, that decided it want to build capitalism now instead of communism. The roots of this counterelite in USSR is deeply in communist party and KGB.

At some point russian politics even dreamed of becoming part on NATO, you know. But years past and many of russians understood, that there will be no Russia in EU, that we will always be foreigners there. That is the moment where old strategy started struggling, that the point where Putin started searching for something new.

How does the fact of small defensive forces in the Baltics and the Eastern nations pose an existential threat?

Small forces mean nothing of course. What means is missile defence systems and that the strategic idea of last 20 years of Russian elite completly failed. And of course Ukraine, Ukraine is like our own land in our culture, no matter if it is another state. Its our land, and it maybe was the last drop of patience for Putin.

Russia today is searching where now it should go, what future it need. 90 % of people in country no longer believe that its future is in becoming the part of Europe. But there is still very powerfull group in elite that thinks its still so.

 

[gazzzwp]

Small forces mean nothing of course. What means is missile defence systems and that the strategic idea of last 20 years of Russian elite completly failed. And of course Ukraine, Ukraine is like our own land in our culture, no matter if it is another state. Its our land, and it maybe was the last drop of patience for Putin.

Some on this forum believe that it is not the present capability of the missile shield that worries Russia but the future capability. Is this what you are referring to? Is this really the core of the matter?

 

[Kirza_rus]

Some on this forum believe that it is not the present capability of the missile shield that worries Russia but the future capability. Is this what you are referring to? Is this really the core of the matter?

Yes, in Russia we think that in every NATO state missile defence systems can be
strengthened anytime.

The core of the matter of the whole conflict between Russia and West today (from my point of view) is that russian ruling elite thought that NATO won't expand, Yugoslavia also made a powerfull shock effect, the series of events through past 10-15 years changed their point of view: from point where we will be together with West to the point in which we will not be full partners with West. And that is unacceptable.

When USSR was gone there were established some rules between Russia and Western world. At least we thought they were.

If Europe was more independent from US policy maybe we could work that out with them. But American political power is too strong in Europe today. Im pretty sure, Putin would love to make friends with Europe again, but not with US watching over her shoulder.

We also hear talks of people like George Friedman from Stratfor talking about creating NATO 2.0, and that doesnt make situation any better.

Its was also Friedman who said that US would never allow Europe and Russia to become allies.

But ofc its my point of view.

 

[SolarWind]

Yes, in Russia we think that in every NATO state missile defence systems can be
strengthened anytime.

The core of the matter of the whole conflict between Russia and West today (from my point of view) is that russian ruling elite thought that NATO won't expand, Yugoslavia also made a powerfull shock effect, the series of events through past 10-15 years changed their point of view: from point where we will be together with West to the point in which we will not be full partners with West. And that is unacceptable.

When USSR was gone there were established some rules between Russia and Western world. At least we thought they were.

If Europe was more independent from US policy maybe we could work that out with them. But American political power is too strong in Europe today. Im pretty sure, Putin would love to make friends with Europe again, but not with US watching over her shoulder.

We also hear talks of people like George Friedman from Stratfor talking about creating NATO 2.0, and that doesnt make situation any better.

Its was also Friedman who said that US would never allow Europe and Russia to become allies.

But ofc its my point of view.

I find the idea of the West "winning" the Cold War to be flawed from the beginning. Towards the end of Cold War one, both sides realized that there was of course no way for any side to win in a full out war, and it was critical to de-escalate tensions. By that point, Russia had grown out of Communism, and wanted to embrace Capitalism. Throughout its history, Russia had always wanted to be close to Europe, to be accepted there, and this was nothing new really for them. In order to fully de-escalate and end the Cold War, concessions had to be made by each side. After an agreement was reached, clearly the West reneged on its side of the agreement on the grounds that Russia was economically weak at the time, preferring instead to stick to the idea of "winning" the Cold War. We can see the results of these ideas now, Cold War 2. Was it all really worth it?

 

[Goknub]

If the Russian elite had some idea that there was an agreement not to expand NATO then it only shows how ignorant they were of Russia's standing in Europe.

The initial pledge not to expand wasn't an agreement between two partners, it was the price negoiated between a hostage negotiator and a kidnapper to release his victims. There was a willingness to see if Russia would change its approach to its neighbours in the 90s but that ended with Putin's policies of oppression.

Look at the dates that NATO expanded eastwards, they all occured around the periods Putin began his latest round of aggression.
Many of these countries have been free for the first time in decades or even centuries. There's no conspiracy, they fled to NATO for protection from Russia. Russia has only itself to blame for driving these countries away. The events in Ukraine has only reinforced that view, the people of Eastern Europe don't want to sacrifice what they've gained for Russia's paranoia of the outside world.

 

[SolarWind]

If the Russian elite had some idea that there was an agreement not to expand NATO then it only shows how ignorant they were of Russia's standing in Europe.

The initial pledge not to expand wasn't an agreement between two partners, it was the price negoiated between a hostage negotiator and a kidnapper to release his victims. There was a willingness to see if Russia would change its approach to its neighbours in the 90s but that ended with Putin's policies of oppression.

Look at the dates that NATO expanded eastwards, they all occured around the periods Putin began his latest round of aggression.
Many of these countries have been free for the first time in decades or even centuries. There's no conspiracy, they fled to NATO for protection from Russia. Russia has only itself to blame for driving these countries away. The events in Ukraine has only reinforced that view, the people of Eastern Europe don't want to sacrifice what they've gained for Russia's paranoia of the outside world.

I am not Russian, don't get me wrong, I don't share the vast majority of their sentiments. Personally, I am glad that many good nations have joined NATO, I had welcomed these news when they came. These counties are an asset, as I had hoped Russia could have been (and not necessarily as part of NATO). From what I understand now, Russia was going to stomach the NATO expansion anyhow. The problems for them were the missile bases in Europe, as well as the armed regime change in Ukraine, the nation Russia considers theirs (their words, not mine). These were Russia's tipping points. Why it was necessary to push them, I do not understand.

Generally, I often find the naivete of many Westerners lies in their absolute ignorance of the Western cultural bias. Within the human race, there are no absolute rights and wrongs. Our moral/ethical system is only one among those of a number of dominant cultures, and however many of those that have come to pass. Particularly, this is the flaw of those Europeans who chose to ignore the dangers to European culture and identity that come with millions of migrants each year. This is also the flaw of those who have expected Russia to play along to a set of Western rules without giving them back enough.

 

[Kirza_rus]

Look at the dates that NATO expanded eastwards, they all occured around the periods Putin began his latest round of aggression.

Friedman (Stratfor): "Another important point-not being able to have troops everywhere, throughout the United States will maintain hostility and war, all fighting each other and not fight against the United States. And the United States will help the arms, money and advisors. Sami will intervene only as a last resort.

You do not need to invade a country, you need to put in power pro-US regime-as was the case in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Ukraine is vital for Russia, since it controls the West NATO to five hundred kilometers from Moscow, and a hundred kilometers from Stalingrad. (Friedman and says-Stalingrad)

The US goal-the creation of "Land Between the Seas", the buffer area, cut off Russia from Germany. The author of this concept-Pilsudski (Polish revolutionary, pro-Western dictator of Poland).

-Is Islamic extremism present a danger to the United States? He will come to naught, or will continue to exist?

-Islamism is a problem for the United States, but is a vital threat. It is necessary to deal with the problem, but it is necessary to make in the proportional force, not more. We have different foreign policy interests. And that's what.

The main foreign policy interests of the United States throughout the last century, during the First, Second World Wars and the Cold focused on the relations between Russia and Germany. Because, together, they are the only force that represents US vital threat. And our main task is to prevent their union. If you are a Ukrainian, you will be looking for someone who can help you. And it will be the United States. About ten days ago, I visited Ukraine in-chief of the US Army in Europe Gen. Ben Hodges. There he announced that soon will arrive to Ukraine officially US military advisers. He was awarded medals of Ukrainian soldiers of the US military, which generally prohibits US Army Regulations-awarding medals foreigners. But Hodges did it because I wanted to show that the Ukrainian army-is his army. Then he left.

The US is now supplying weapons, artillery and other weapons Baltic countries, Romania, Poland and Bulgaria. This is a very interesting aspect. And yesterday, the US announced its intention to supply weapons to Georgia. Although then followed by a denial, weapons will be available. And in all these matters are the United States, bypassing NATO, because NATO's decision can only be taken unanimously by all members.

The essence of what is happening is that the US is building a cordon sanitaire around Russia. And Russia knows this. Russia believes that the US is going to dismember the Russian Federation. I think we do not want to kill the Russian, but only slightly hurt and cause uschёrb.

In any case, we are back to the old game. And if you ask what he thinks Poles, Hungarians and Romanians...They live in a completely different universe than the Germans, and the Germans, in turn, live in a totally different universe than the Spaniards. And so on. In short, disagreement reigns in Europe".

 

[gazzzwp]

I am not Russian, don't get me wrong, I don't share the vast majority of their sentiments. Personally, I am glad that many good nations have joined NATO, I had welcomed these news when they came. These counties are an asset, as I had hoped Russia could have been (and not necessarily as part of NATO). From what I understand now, Russia was going to stomach the NATO expansion anyhow. The problems for them were the missile bases in Europe, as well as the armed regime change in Ukraine, the nation Russia considers theirs (their words, not mine). These were Russia's tipping points. Why it was necessary to push them, I do not understand.

Generally, I often find the naivete of many Westerners lies in their absolute ignorance of the Western cultural bias. Within the human race, there are no absolute rights and wrongs. Our moral/ethical system is only one among those of a number of dominant cultures, and however many of those that have come to pass. Particularly, this is the flaw of those Europeans who chose to ignore the dangers to European culture and identity that come with millions of migrants each year. This is also the flaw of those who have expected Russia to play along to a set of Western rules without giving them back enough.

Except to say that of the two ideologies, the western system ('Capitalism') has been more successful compared to Russia's ('Socialism). This has been proven in many parts of the world; Venezuela being the latest example.

So I don't think it is a question of relative values but more a question of which is the better system. I realise that Russia has moved on from Socialism now into an Oligarchical style of capitalism and I also realise that the west has it's problems.

On balance though the evidence strongly suggests that the west has done much better.

 

[gazzzwp]

The essence of what is happening is that the US is building a cordon sanitaire around Russia. And Russia knows this. Russia believes that the US is going to dismember the Russian Federation. I think we do not want to kill the Russian, but only slightly hurt and cause uschёrb.

In any case, we are back to the old game. And if you ask what he thinks Poles, Hungarians and Romanians...They live in a completely different universe than the Germans, and the Germans, in turn, live in a totally different universe than the Spaniards. And so on. In short, disagreement reigns in Europe".

Interesting. This is presumably why Putin is aggressively trying to challenge those US alliances and trying to capitalise quickly. Turkey being a good example. Another is The Philippines.

https://www.rt.com/news/363597-russia-philippines-cooperation-duterte/

The battle for strategic alliances is one that Putin cannot afford to lose.

 

[Feanor]

Except to say that of the two ideologies, the western system ('Capitalism') has been more successful compared to Russia's ('Socialism). This has been proven in many parts of the world; Venezuela being the latest example.

So I don't think it is a question of relative values but more a question of which is the better system. I realise that Russia has moved on from Socialism now into an Oligarchical style of capitalism and I also realise that the west has it's problems.

On balance though the evidence strongly suggests that the west has done much better.

It's not a question of which is the better system, and hasn't been the question since the end of the Cold War. Modern day Russia is a capitalist country, possibly in the worst sense of that word.

 

[Kirza_rus]

It's not a question of which is the better system, and hasn't been the question since the end of the Cold War. Modern day Russia is a capitalist country, possibly in the worst sense of that word.

Yes, I bitterly admit it is oligarchy in Russia. But I dont understand why does it matter for foreign policy.

As for domestic policy, its is our problem, and nobody is happy with that. BUT the thing is nowadays nobody will believe in western words that its just Putin that needs to go, and then oligarchy will go with him. No, thats not how it works, it is much more complicated.

Atleast Putin systems works and nobody want to get back to 90s, when everything was extremly bad.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

I realise that Russia has moved on from Socialism now into an Oligarchical style of capitalism..

Putin is putting a lot of pressure on those Oligarchs & those under them, many of whom are ancient history now. Ukrainians are following in the footsteps of other Central Europeans who joined NATO- they made a mistake by not becoming neutral like Austria or Sweden & thus antagonized Russia, shooting themselves in the foot. It may become a self-fulfilled prophecy: by hosting NATO bases, they became potential targets- the outcome they tried to avoid! Some in Poland, Hungary & Bulgaria already realized that there is more to loose than to gain. NATO will use them as cannon fodder & importers of arms, but won't be able to protect them just because the Article 9 is on the books. Russia has been warning all of them & NATO leaders for years, like that Soviet cartoon mellow cat Leopold done with mice: "lads, let's live peacefully!" Let's remember that in the long run, the West was never able to decisively defeat Russia. Those who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it!

 

[SolarWind]

Except to say that of the two ideologies, the western system ('Capitalism') has been more successful compared to Russia's ('Socialism). This has been proven in many parts of the world; Venezuela being the latest example.

So I don't think it is a question of relative values but more a question of which is the better system. I realise that Russia has moved on from Socialism now into an Oligarchical style of capitalism and I also realise that the west has it's problems.

On balance though the evidence strongly suggests that the west has done much better.

The West has done much better so far. In order to keep it that way, it would be good for many of us to dig deeper into our own values for guidance. For example, "Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before a fall." Proverbs 16:18

 

[SolarWind]

It's not a question of which is the better system, and hasn't been the question since the end of the Cold War. Modern day Russia is a capitalist country, possibly in the worst sense of that word.

And yet many rank and file Russians, especially the older ones, cling to ideas of Soviet-style entitlement.

 

[Kirza_rus]

And yet many rank and file Russians, especially the older ones, cling to ideas of Soviet-style entitlement.

I see the problem here. You think that soviet was some sort of unnatural condition of Russian culture. When actually it was natural condition or Russian culture, soviet culture was a logical extension of our culture. There are historical and cultural reasons fror that. Thats why it wont disappear even when we started to build capitalism.

Poll of recent years in Russia say, that up to 80 percent of people stand for restoration of USSR. It does not happen becouse elite is actually againts this. The elite, that u think is being soviet style in Russia actually is the main antisoviet force in inner politics.That where you are wrong.