I have to fundamentally disagree with this. A show of support from the US and the West was nothing more than words. When masked gunmen started appearing at the town halls in Russian speaking tows inciting people to take up the fight then that is the point at which lives started to be ruined and the situation turned ugly.
Who is to say that Russia would not have benefited greatly from an economically strong Ukraine? Who is to say that Ukraine would not have acted as a bridge between Russia and the West for sharing of economic skills and human values?
Putin and his thugs soon threw that idea out of the window and instead sent in tanks and missiles to show the west that it is they not the west that insists that the iron curtain divide remain in place as it more or less has for the past 70 years.
So my question to you is who first brought in their army? The West or Russia? Before anyone shouts "Right Wing Ukrainians" then let it be known that Right Wing activists exist in Germany, UK, France and everywhere. That is purely political and has nothing to do with the merciless slaughter imposed by Putin on the poor (Russian) speaking people of the Ukraine.
Who had more to lose from the violation of the ceasefire? The Russian backed rebels armed with the latest Russian weaponry and unreservedly backed by a massive army, or poorly armed Ukrainians trying to protect what is left of their homeland? I have my doubts. The west has been very reserved and measured regarding arming the Ukrainian forces and mostly again it has been words.
This one I would not disagree with. It is clear that the world is becoming dangerously polarised with China, Russia, Iran in some sort of alliance with the US, UAE, the West, Japan, etc on the other heading eventually one might be forced to conclude towards a horrific world war.
The question is who wants it the most and who is trying to avoid it? I'm hoping that this thread will address that question.
I may not have expressed myself too clearly. I am far from believing in the transcendent power of words. However, words do encourage action and provide legitimacy. Maidan opposition was reassured that protest is the only way forward by a host of Western delegations visiting the square, resulting in its utter unwillingness to compromise. At the same time, there was also the belief amongst the opposition that irrespective of how many laws it broke, the West would recognise it as the new Ukrainian government once it took power.
Ukraine cannot and could not act as a bridge between East and West. Firstly, Ukrainians, culturally and ethnically are no less Eastern than Russians and therefore, cannot be seen to be privy to Western socio-political organisational forms. Moreover, Russia has attracted far more Western investment in money and expertise than the Ukraine. Indeed, in regards to Ukrainian high-tech industry, its primary market has always been Russia. Russia has invested heavily in the An 70 project; contributed toward the production of An 148/58; regularly purchased Ukrainian Zenit boosters. Any talk of Russia not interested in a Ukraine as a country that can offer something more than farmland is trumped by the level of economic integration of these two nations.
Right wing thugs held ministerial positions in the Ukraine. Minister of Defence; acting General Prosecutor; Minister of Agriculture; Minister of the Ecology and Vice Prime-Minister were all members of the right-wing Svoboda Party. Yarosh, the former head of Right Sector, was offered a position on the Ukrainian Security Council on several occasions. The openly Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion is officially part of the Ukrainian National Guard. So, as you can see, very similar to the situation with UKIP in the UK and Pegida in Germany...
Before the arrival of Russian volunteers and army units proper, Ukrainian paramilitaries have already executed a bloody coup in Kiev and threatened Crimea. Any footage of the early-days of the Donbass War will suggest that primarily, local unemployed miners were involved with little to no military training.
Poroshenko has most to gain from the recommencement of hostilities. His utter failure at domestic reform, non-compliance with IMF road-map; loss of popularity can only be amortised, albeit temporarily, by
la patrie en danger rhetoric. It is Putin who has much to gain from the continuation of the cease-fire given Russia's intrinsic interest in 'frozen conflict' scenarios in the post-Soviet space.