Royal New Zealand Air Force

[Novascotiaboy]

At today's exchange rate a Kawasaki C2 would cost NZ$191 million without spares or training. A fleet of four C2 plus four C295W at NZ$50 million apiece would be NZ$964 million. A Fleet of five C2 would be NZ$955

Published costs of US$100 million per C130J equate to NZ$140 million so a fleet of
Seven would equate to NZ$980 million.

Published cost of NZ$250 million per A400 allows just four aircraft for NZ$1 billion.

Total lift of seven C130J's would be just shy of 140t.
Total lift of four C2's would be 144t.
Total lift of five C2's would be 180t
Total lift of four C295W would be 40t.
Total lift of four A400 would be 148t.

Versatility, capability, cost effectiveness and shear gross numbers my hi / lo mix gives the best value for less than NZ$1 billion plus training and support costs.

Throw two A109 A/LUH's in the mix and there is NZ $1 billion.

It's only money.

 

[Rob c]

At today's exchange rate a Kawasaki C2 would cost NZ$191 million without spares or training. A fleet of four C2 plus four C295W at NZ$50 million apiece would be NZ$964 million. A Fleet of five C2 would be NZ$955

Published costs of US$100 million per C130J equate to NZ$140 million so a fleet of
Seven would equate to NZ$980 million.

Published cost of NZ$250 million per A400 allows just four aircraft for NZ$1 billion.

Total lift of seven C130J's would be just shy of 140t.
Total lift of four C2's would be 144t.
Total lift of five C2's would be 180t
Total lift of four C295W would be 40t.
Total lift of four A400 would be 148t.

Versatility, capability, cost effectiveness and shear gross numbers my hi / lo mix gives the best value for less than NZ$1 billion plus training and support costs.

Throw two A109 A/LUH's in the mix and there is NZ $1 billion.

It's only money.

Don't forget the KC390, using the same calculation, 7 Herks price wise equals over 9 Kc390's which have a total lift of between 207 and 235 tonnes depending on which web site you believe in. The C2 does look promising and is said to have AAR capability but I don't know if this is only as a receiver or can it dispense as well, however with it's range payload figures ,probably not a pressing issue. NZ Defence is not adverse to some managed risk taking when they see an advantage in doing so For example the NH90 and the sea ceptor which the naval version had not even finished test firing's when selected.

 

[ngatimozart]

Don't forget the KC390, using the same calculation, 7 Herks price wise equals over 9 Kc390's which have a total lift of between 207 and 235 tonnes depending on which web site you believe in. The C2 does look promising and is said to have AAR capability but I don't know if this is only as a receiver or can it dispense as well, however with it's range payload figures ,probably not a pressing issue. NZ Defence is not adverse to some managed risk taking when they see an advantage in doing so For example the NH90 and the sea ceptor which the naval version had not even finished test firing's when selected.

You know a C2 / KC390 mix wouldn't be to bad except that there's only 10t difference in load capacity. Or a C2 / C130J mix, even KC130J. I wouldn't discount the C2 yet.

 

[Bluey 006]

Nice find. Range with load converted from km to nm (nautical miles) are as follows with load in brackets:

• 4,500km = 2,400nm (36t)
• 5,700km = 3,070nm (30t)
• 7,600km = 4,100nm (20t)
• 9,800km = 5,250nm (Ferry)

Now the Japanese agency has given the load weight symbol as t which is the SI symbol for tonne and since the rest of their data is metric it would be reasonable to assume that this is a metric tonne rather than an imperial ton or US ton which are different in that they are lighter.

As a comparison the A400M is claimed to have the following lift / range:

• 2,450nm - 33t
• 1,780nm - 40t

So on the face of it we may be better going with the C2 rather than the A400M. It would make good political, trade and defence diplomacy sense to go with the Japanese C2 because it would be more advantageous to us in the long term. Secondly, the engines are US and are mature with no problems and I think that two GE CF6 turbofans might just be less thirsty than four Europrop TP400 turboprops with very complicated gearboxes.

I see your view has changed, since last year? What changed your mind? I do agree with this position though C2 is a good choice for NZ

 

[ngatimozart]

I see your view has changed, since last year? What changed your mind? I do agree with this position though C2 is a good choice for NZ

It just changed over time with the continued problems with the A400M and the ongoing issues that the ADF have had with European sourced spares and that, I just think we may be better off looking elsewhere. One thing about the Japanese is that their service has always been good and if NZ acquired the C2 then they would ensure that there would be no problems because they would want the world to have a good impression and a satisfied customer. They understand that. Also there are the geopolitical considerations that I alluded to as well.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Ngati

If a C2 / KC130J mix were a possibility as you have suggested what mix do you see as plausible? Are both to be considered tactical or do you see C2 as the B757 replacement?

If seven airframes are to be replaced frame for frame would three C2 and four KC130J be realistic? All would be able to deal with tactical and C2 could cover off the extended range strategic operations with significant loads.

I personally like the idea of a few tankers as it gives the option to be able to act as theatre refuelers or if the NH90's are upgraded with probes they would enable self deployment options.

Cost wise, this option equates to @NZ$1.1 billion for aircraft alone for 188 t lift. The KC130J's could likely be delivered within the planned timeframe and the 2025 timeline for the strategic could be met by Kawasaki and allow RNZAF pilots and crew to embed with JSDF units prior to delivery to be prepared for acceptance. At the low rate of production of 4 per annum the JSDF would have all of their planned aircraft in service and the three NZ aircraft would be slotted in 2025 with no disruption to the Japanese timeline.

With the an initial Herc for Herc replacement the transition time would be minimal as crews are already familiar. Certain systems and procedures would need to be worked out but still far less than a switch to a whole new aircraft. Over time the tanker aspect can be worked in with Australia and other partners. Some have said on other forums that NZ has no need for a tanker but I see it differently. Instead of considering it initially for air to air consider the benefits of a fully functional fuel transfer capability in a HADR situation. The ability to rapidly fly in and safely dispense fuel for generators and vehicles in bulk.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

I forgot to add that I think I heard SeaToby fall out of his chair if he is still around.

 

[John Fedup]

It just changed over time with the continued problems with the A400M and the ongoing issues that the ADF have had with European sourced spares and that, I just think we may be better off looking elsewhere. One thing about the Japanese is that their service has always been good and if NZ acquired the C2 then they would ensure that there would be no problems because they would want the world to have a good impression and a satisfied customer. They understand that. Also there are the geopolitical considerations that I alluded to as well.

This link describes how a Japanese package might get enhanced support thus minimizing risk.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/a...ce-honeywell-eyes-japanese-aircraft-e-430337/

 

[Rob c]

You know a C2 / KC390 mix wouldn't be to bad except that there's only 10t difference in load capacity. Or a C2 / C130J mix, even KC130J. I wouldn't discount the C2 yet.

I like the C2/KC390 mix as it would tick most boxes. I think the KC130J would be a real long shot as the refuel system is not a quick change system unlike the KC390. Most operators simply leave it on and except the weight and drag penalty. The Kc130 is not built as a receiver, (Flight refueling, has a mod for this)so unless we put probes on the NH 90's it becomes a little pointless. I would not rule out a complete C2 fleet, though they are not quite as tactical as the KC390.

 

[ngatimozart]

I forgot to add that I think I heard SeaToby fall out of his chair if he is still around.

Jeez don't tempt fate. It's been nice and peaceful since he's left. You should be made to sweep out a large hangar with a small broom for mentioning him. :rotfl

 

[MrConservative]

Remember that the C-17A has not been completely ruled out by Cabinet it simply was not pursued at this time (ref: 2015 Cabinet Docs). To the best of my knowledge 14-0003 was still unsold and undelivered as of 31 July 2016, Boeing registered as N272ZD and stored at the Kelly Field Depot Maintenance facility in Texas. Thus airframe (14-0003) acquired outright by the NZ Gov and a rotational lease agreement to secure a second guaranteed airframe (ex USAF) is still as possible as other permutations to replace the B757 in the strategic / heavy tactical role. In my view it is still the best solution along with the C-130 in the tactical role. Not the only solution but the best solution.

 

[Rob c]

Remember that the C-17A has not been completely ruled out by Cabinet it simply was not pursued at this time (ref: 2015 Cabinet Docs). To the best of my knowledge 14-0003 was still unsold and undelivered as of 31 July 2016, Boeing registered as N272ZD and stored at the Kelly Field Depot Maintenance facility in Texas. Thus airframe (14-0003) acquired outright by the NZ Gov and a rotational lease agreement to secure a second guaranteed airframe (ex USAF) is still as possible as other permutations to replace the B757 in the strategic / heavy tactical role. In my view it is still the best solution along with the C-130 in the tactical role. Not the only solution but the best solution.

The C17 would certainly boost the strategic role to a very good level and we don't know what additional information that cabinet has that we don't in this regard. If they get anywhere close to the RFI i think the C130 is dead in the water, it simply does not tick enough of the boxes, even one of the essential ones is missed, It's only strong points are that it is available and well proven. However cabinet may have other idea's.

 

[Bluey 006]

It just changed over time with the continued problems with the A400M and the ongoing issues that the ADF have had with European sourced spares and that, I just think we may be better off looking elsewhere. One thing about the Japanese is that their service has always been good and if NZ acquired the C2 then they would ensure that there would be no problems because they would want the world to have a good impression and a satisfied customer. They understand that. Also there are the geopolitical considerations that I alluded to as well.

Fair enough, and I agree the Japanese will go to great lengths make sure they have a happy customer (bigger implications than just the one order for them).
For a long time I've liked the C2 for RNZAF and although it does contain some risk i think both quantitative and qualitative analysis need to be be considered when evaluating said risk.

The only very low risk solution was the C17, and that is no longer a option.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Jeez don't tempt fate. It's been nice and peaceful since he's left. You should be made to sweep out a large hangar with a small broom for mentioning him. :rotfl

Sorry Ngati. Reading thru all the previous posts you and he had some great discussions on this topic. Just thought it needed to be said. Hehehehe

 

[MrConservative]

The only very low risk solution was the C17, and that is no longer a option.

The C-17 in some form of negotiated commercial arrangement down the track has still not been ruled out as part of the FAMC capability solution up until the close of the tender 2 weeks ago. There has only been assumptions made here that it is no longer an option.

 

[ngatimozart]

The C-17 in some form of negotiated commercial arrangement down the track has still not been ruled out as part of the FAMC capability solution up until the close of the tender 2 weeks ago. There has only been assumptions made here that it is no longer an option.

I've been excluding the C17, not because I no longer see it as an option, but because of the extra hoops that now have to be jumped through any procurement of more than one aircraft. To me if it happens all well and good; if not, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, because the golden opportunity was >18 months ago and they didn't avail themselves of that. IF the C17 is made available then IMHO the ideal combination would be C17 / C130J or failing that C17 / KC390. In fact we could go with an an Boeing jet fleet 3 x C17, 5 x P8, 5(or 6) x KC390 (yes I know Embrear, but Boeing has the global maintenance and sustainment) and 2 x B737-800ER with strengthened floors. Add in 6 or more Pilatus PC24 and we would have quite a versatile fleet If the C17 is not available / procured then change that to 4 x Kawasaki C2.

 

[MrConservative]

because the golden opportunity was >18 months ago and they didn't avail themselves of that.

If the C17 is not available / procured then change that to 4 x Kawasaki C2.

The irony is that this week we as a nation announced a $1.8b surplus with future surpluses very likely.

As for the FAMC all will be soon be revealed. But it will be a risk adverse solution. Even then it will likely change over the next 5 years as the geo-political world of late 2016 is even different to 6 months ago.

 

[ngatimozart]

The irony is that this week we as a nation announced a $1.8b surplus with future surpluses very likely.

As for the FAMC all will be soon be revealed. But it will be a risk adverse solution. Even then it will likely change over the next 5 years as the geo-political world of late 2016 is even different to 6 months ago.

A surplus unexpectedly high too Yes, the geopolitical situation is changing very quickly and unfortunately for the worse. The pollies will have to pull their finger out but unfortunately they will procrastinate until to late, unwilling to accept the warning signs.

 

[Rob c]

I've been excluding the C17, not because I no longer see it as an option, but because of the extra hoops that now have to be jumped through any procurement of more than one aircraft. To me if it happens all well and good; if not, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, because the golden opportunity was >18 months ago and they didn't avail themselves of that. IF the C17 is made available then IMHO the ideal combination would be C17 / C130J or failing that C17 / KC390. In fact we could go with an an Boeing jet fleet 3 x C17, 5 x P8, 5(or 6) x KC390 (yes I know Embrear, but Boeing has the global maintenance and sustainment) and 2 x B737-800ER with strengthened floors. Add in 6 or more Pilatus PC24 and we would have quite a versatile fleet If the C17 is not available / procured then change that to 4 x Kawasaki C2.

The C17 would be great to have but I get the feeling that it may just be a bit of overkill for NZ and that it would seldom be used to best advantage, so I would think the C2 may be a better choice. The B737 800ER I feel would be a bad choice as it's runway requirements with anything other than a light load would seriously restrict its use in NZ, it simply is not flexible enough for us and the general trend of the RFI seemed to be leaning away from a passenger type. That was one of the complaints I heard down the grape vine about the B757 was that it lacked flexibility.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Ngati that is an impressive mix. Is it realistic in terms of funding since you are asking for a massive increase in lift plus two or three extra airframes plus the six PC24's.

Does NZ have the need for such capacity with C17? I think it is the right plane for NZ given its commonality with Allied air forces but its operational costs are high.

With the PC24 are you suggesting the platform for MEPT and EEZ patrol besides VIP? If C17 and KC390 are purchased having the business jet for MEPT makes more sense than the B200's or B350's.

Once the decision is made as to the chosen platforms the options listed all will give NZ a boost in capability if government ponies up with the cash.