Two Kawasaki C2 replacements for the B757, three Embraer KC 390 and three C295W would be a very realistic transport fleet. The C2's would provide long range strategic lift capability with the ability to fly tactical missions when needed. The KC390 as the heavy tactical transport able to fly most missions and support overseas operations with full self defence capability. The C295W would be the multi role stay at home utility aircraft able to provide MEPT, utility transport of cargo or passengers, possible MR with a FITS mission system option plus other non critical government taskings.
A mixed fleet provides thru life savings by using aircraft right sized to the task with max cargo capacities of 40 ton, 20 ton and 10 ton respectively. Using available acquisition costs for airframe only, not full life cycle costings, the eight frames could be acquired for approximately $1 billion New Zealand dollars today.
This mix provides one additional airframe over today's seven frame fleet but provides all aircraft as ramp equipped lifters. As stated the increase in speed allows for more cargo to be delivered over a given distance because more trips can be made. Additional airframes can be added as need develops. I would prefer a minimum of three C2's, but this is unlikely,in order to maintain the rule of 3.
A timeline for delivery could see the C295W's delivered first followed by the KC390 and then the C2's to allow for delivery slots to be made available and meet the timelines set out in the RFI. This also allow maximum use of the existing Hercules fleet until completely tapped out.
Passenger travel should be outsourced to a leased BBJ as needed otherwise pollies can travel in the back with everyone else.
It would also allow the movement of some transport capacity to Ohakea with the C295W. In its MEPT role it provides the opportunity for trainees to step over to the bigger air frame without leaving the training environ. Basing in the approximate centre of the country also provides a quick response for SAR and other internal natural disaster support. All turbo props at one base and all turbo fans at Whenupai.
Sorry Mr C I know it's been stated that a C295 sized aircraft isn't seen as needed but the limited ability of the B350 in the low end of the transport spectrum limits its value IMHO. To far of a step from a B350 to a P8 or C2 sized aircraft.