South China Sea thoughts?

[gf0012-aust]

Any hostilities and trade-Investment disruptions with China will be economic hurtfull for all Asia, especially in ASEAN and East Asia. However what China does with continue military posturing will made their neighbours have to choose side.

I agree with John Fedup that any hostilities with China will suck Global economy down..I also agree with Sturm that nobody can fill the China's void in Investment and Trade..at least for mid term..but eventually I do believe many 'relative' mature in developing stages economies in ASEAN, and ROK plus Japan can work something out to fill the Chinese void..

China it self is not the Allmighthy economies that many of Chinese Internet wariors potrait it..China economy is more fragile then what the surface shown..
China afterall not a fully developed Economies..no matter it is the world 2nd largest..Like any large populated developing economies..it need certain percentage of annual economy growth to maintain social-economic stability.

Indonesia will have recession if it growth bellow 4%, many Investment Bankers and Economiest put 4.5%-5% as minimum threshold growth numbers that India has to maintain to keep economic stability...whille the threshold number for China many believes is 6%.

Those economies at this moment only growth around 1% above their 'minimum' threshold..that include supossedly mighty China. In sense China actually can't afford to have prolong military conflict with anybody..unless it want to risk heavy damage to its own economy.

Perhaps why now Japan willing shown more determined face to China..since despite it miniscule economic growth rate compared to China, but as developed Industrial Economy..they actually have more economic sustainability compared to China..

China now has many excess capacity that need to be feed commercially to keep its work force socially maintanable..any prolong conflict..can risk damaging its growth..and risking internal social order..and that I believe more risk for China in the end then any external conflict.

So..in the end this Military posturing I believe is part of diplomatic bluffing..questions is..if the bluff being challenge by regional power like Japan..will China answered it back..knowing the risk it will made to its own economy thus..potential internal social stability..

+1

a list of some of chinas emerging problems

• 25m new military aged unemployed young men are appearing every year
• huge disconnection between city and country people - the north west, south west and west are frustrated that all development appears on the economic hubs and the regions are left to fend for themselves
• the push to modernise means that less labour intensive jobs are available - so those unemployed young men can't get the factory jobs that were prev available
• a huge disproportion of males to females - and a trend where foreign males are seen as a better catch
• a high proportion of the 25m new additionals are uneducated - and the women are after smarter men
• the education system can't keep up with the population
• a rising sense of nationalism or nativism and where the countries leaders turn on and turn off the patriotism to suit their narrative - this is happening far more frequently - and in real terms starts to indicate that maybe the govt has less control than what they portray
• a rising resentment by the corrupt military elements as the civil administration side makes an attempt to weed out corruption - and is failing, especially with respect to forfeiture of traditional commune properties to make way for retail and industrial developments. its a universal truth, that property development in a lot of cultures invites some dislocation if not worse corruption. this is also being played out in the rural areas
• pollution levels that are killing arable land and impacting upon general health and wellbeing
• an increasing bellicosity by the hawks that they should go to war with the US and/or Japan sooner rather than later
• a massive inferiority complex across the nation stemming from the Arrow Wars in the 1840's and a strong desire to be retributive as payback to the west - this is a very strong theme with the Hawks
• problems with water supply and quality
• problems feeding the population and becoming more dependent on imports as arable land gets taken up by commercial interests and any available land has a high risk of being compromised due to pollution issues etc...
• knock on effects of one child policy
• knock on effects of no family support for the elders in the new economy

I could go on, but you get the drift

the west was hoping that if trade ties were strong then the possibility of war would be reduced and we could all sit around the table and sing kumbayah
the hawks are fundamentally disinterested and want to turn the PACRIM into a chinese lake - and considering how much world commerce and trade goes through the SCS and ECS, then thats a scarey thought if the chinese decide to start declaring it as national zones and reinforce it with ongoing military exercises which will add costs to goods as it will cause trade routes to be adjusted to bypass contested areas - and that will only work so far.

however, they won't be shy about dropping dragons teeth into sea lanes of interest

all in all its a cluster, and I think that chinas has bought the worst case scenarios forward by 10 years at least - and that sooner rather than later, there will be a maritime incident involving shooting and lives lost

a lot of people don't realise that china has the dubious history of being involved with military incursions and punch ups with every one of its land neighbours since WW2, and that she's already had a shooting war with Vietnam in 1988 over the Spratleys, and that she's caused naval friction with 4 of the countries making claims on the Spratleys/Paracels. She's far from being benign, and this notion that she promotes that she doesn't fight but negotiates is absolute tosh

 

[John Fedup]

A bleak summary GF, which I think is pretty much spot on. The other worrying part is a zero awareness by the general population in NA for the most part and perhaps in Europe as well. If the stuff hits the fan in Asia, many here will be in WTF happened mode.

 

[cdxbow]

A bleak summary GF, which I think is pretty much spot on. .

Unfortunately all too true, conflict is looking inevitable if the PRC keep pushing like this. Ultranationalism, large numbers of unemployed young men, strong sense of historical grievance, unreasonable and expansionist claims for 'land', with a one party authoritarian state that will do anything to maintain it's power. Starts to sound like parts of Europe around the middle of last century. Look how that went.

The PRC has also started to push against India (PRC incursions in Uttarakhand last month) which has resulted in India moving tanks and artillery up to the border. I think this is the PRC signalling it's displeasure to India about Indian attitudes to SCC and aligning itself more with the West than a legitimate shift in focus away from the SCC. The low hanging fruit remains in the SCC.

 

[bdique]

unintended consequence I always use that spelling on forums in case the filters kick in

no worries, I know where you are coming from. I didn't earn that nickname for no reason...back then anyway

Also, thanks to Ananda and GF that concise list of issues affecting China. The issue of China bringing forward "the worst case scenarios forward by 10 years at least" seems to be materialising, with Vietnam deploying EXTRA guided rocket launchers to the one of their islands in the Spratlys, putting Chinese land installations in area at risk. I wonder what the PRC response would be. A blockade of said island?

 

[ngatimozart]

An interesting article on Chinas intentions vis a vis Japan: How China is Setting the Stage for War with Japan in the East China Sea.

The positive signs that China was moving past the ruling have been overtaken by a number of very disturbing trends which, regardless which path China ultimately takes, puts it on a collision course with Japan, the United States or perhaps a much broader group of states. Unless something dramatic emerges as a result of the secret conclave in Beidaihe, China seems intent on settling scores with those states responsible for its legal embarrassment and loss of face in ASEAN. Japan now seems to be the likely candidate even though it is an East China Sea (ECS) power. Japan warned China’s ambassador twice in the past week that relations between the two countries were “deteriorating markedly.”

China’s Negative Reactions
Immediately after the July 12 ruling the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a detailed repudiation declaring that the ruling was “null and void,” “has no binding force” and “China neither accepts nor recognizes it.” The Chinese state media declared the permanent court of arbitration a “puppet” of external forces and that “China will take all necessary measures to protect its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.” In addition to that harsh criticism:

On July 13, China sent civilian aircraft to two new airports on Mischief Reef and Subi Reef in apparent violation of the ruling.

On July 13, China’s vice foreign minister said “If our security is being threatened, of course we have the right demarcate a [air defense identification] zone.”

On July 15, China posts images of its recent overflight of the highly contested Scarborough Shoal by nuclear capable H-6K bombers (and escorts) and announced that such patrols would be a “Regular Practice.” This again is in violation of the Ruling.

On July 24, ASEAN failed to achieve consensus to issue a statement on the Tribunal decision after China’s ally Cambodia broke away from a consensus document that was being proposed by the Philippines, Vietnam and others.

On July 25, the United States, Australia, and Japan held a Trilateral Strategic Dialogue and issued a statement expressing “their strong support for the rule of law and called on China and the Philippines to abide by the Arbitral Tribunal’s Award of July 12 in the Philippines–China arbitration, which is final and legally binding on both parties.” The ministers also expressed opposition to any coercive or unilateral actions that could alter the status quo including future land reclamation activities.

On July 27, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the trilateral statement and charged that the statement was not constructive and “fanning the flames.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang also charged that the United States, Australia and Japan have been adopting double standards towards international law which they adopt when it “fits their needs.”

On July 28, the Chinese Defense Ministry announced plans to held a joint military exercise with Russia in the SCS in September; the first such bilateral exercise in that body of water. Note that in 2014, China and Russia held joint naval exercises in the East China Sea.

On August 1, China held a significant live fire drill in the East China Sea (ECS) that including the firing of “dozens” of missiles and torpedoes.There were also reports that six PRC coast guard vessels and over 200 fishing vessels swarmed in the vicinity of the Senkaku (or Diaoyu) Islands.

On August 2, Japan’s Ministry of Defense published a white paper describing China’s position on the SCS an object of “deep concern.” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called Japan’s paper “full of malice,” “lousy clichés,” “irresponsible” and a smokescreen to obscure Japan’s expansionist arms policies.

On August 3, North Korea launched two missiles; one of which impacted in the Sea of Japan about 150 miles from the Japanese coast. President Abe called the launch a “reckless act that is difficult to forgive.” When the UN Security Council sought to condemn North Korea’s actions, China curtailed the Security Council’s actions.

On August 2, China’s Supreme People’s Court clarified China’s 2014 Fishing Regulation to the effect that those that engage in illegal activities inside of the waters claimed by China will be arrested and tried as criminals. The practical import is that fishing within the nine dash line area will be met with vessel seizure and imprisonment.

On August 6, China sent bombers and fighter jets on patrol in the vicinity of “Scarborough Shoals.” China announced that these flights will be a “regular practice” to “normalize South China Sea combat patrols” to safeguard its sovereignty interests.

On August 7, Japan reported that it had issued multiple protests to China after it found that China had installed ocean surveillance radar “facilities” on a number of its offshore gas platforms.

It suggests that even though Japan is not involved in the SCS dispute, China is determined to "punish" Japan regardless; militarily if it can get away with it. Where I have problems with this article is when the author suggests that Japan launches a pre-emptive strike against China in order to give it a bloody nose before China becomes to strong militarily both quantitatively and qualitatively, similar to what Israel did in the 1967 Six Day War. My view is that if Japan did so it would be justifiably accused of launching an aggressive war, which would play into China's hands and severely damage Japan's reputation within the region and further afield. It also may give Putin the excuse to expand Russian territory at the expense of the Japanese. Most importantly of all, Japan could lose the support of its most important ally, the US.

Another tactic that China is using is instigating unannounced trade restrictions or more stringent inspections on imports at the port of entry. This is impacting not just on Japan but nations like the US, Australia and now most likely South Korea because of the THAAD installation there. In NZ's case we have had goods stopped at the Chinese port of entry for a variety of reasons ranging from difficulties with paperwork, to quick changes in the required forms, unannounced new inspection requirements etc., etc., and that's with a free trade deal. Now the NZG is reportedly investigating anti-competitive complaints of Chinese steel being dumped on the NZ market, with allegations of threats being made to the Chinese office of a NZ owned company, of Chinese retaliation if these complaints being investigated. The retaliation would not surprise me in the slightest.

There is a pattern developing and it is not good for the region and the world. Whilst some commentators have compared the Chinese rise to run up to WW1, I think that there are many difference, although there are definitely some parallels. The main point to remember is that we cannot look at Chinas attitudes, thinking, politics, etc., through the lens of western eyes and mind sets, because the cultural differences between the west and China are vastly different. To ignore that would be a fatal mistake.

 

[STURM]

An interesting article with some great satellite images of Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi. Makes one wonder what the Chinese have there that we don't know about and what else they plan to have there.

What do 'hangars' on disputed islands in the South China Sea tell us? - BBC News

 

[ngatimozart]

Updates

China has launched a new maritime reconnaissance satellite to monitor the SCS. It has a (publicly acknowledged) resolution of 1m using radar.

Vietnam has been hit by another spyware attack that is political in nature so is thought to have originated from China.

China may or may not be linked to the alleged denial of service attacks on the Australia Census website during the recent Australian census. It would not surprise me though if it was.

Tokyo has protested to Beijing over repeated incursions by Chinese coastguard and fishing vessels into its EEZ and contiguous waters. It has also protested about China installing radar (surveillance?) on its oil rig(s).

 

[weaponwh]

Those economies at this moment only growth around 1% above their 'minimum' threshold..that include supossedly mighty China. In sense China actually can't afford to have prolong military conflict with anybody..unless it want to risk heavy damage to its own economy.

Perhaps why now Japan willing shown more determined face to China..since despite it miniscule economic growth rate compared to China, but as developed Industrial Economy..they actually have more economic sustainability compared to China..

China now has many excess capacity that need to be feed commercially to keep its work force socially maintanable..any prolong conflict..can risk damaging its growth..and risking internal social order..and that I believe more risk for China in the end then any external conflict.

So..in the end this Military posturing I believe is part of diplomatic bluffing..questions is..if the bluff being challenge by regional power like Japan..will China answered it back..knowing the risk it will made to its own economy thus..potential internal social stability..

True, I don't think china want a war, but crossing certain line could cause a limited conflict anyway. CCP could shift attention of some these internal issues perceived by population toward issue such as SCS/east china sea, till they can solve the internal issues. The top echelon of CCP has decades of experience in governing, they are not stupid and knows whats at risk here.

It suggests that even though Japan is not involved in the SCS dispute, China is determined to "punish" Japan regardless; militarily if it can get away with it.

China do perceive Japan involved in ScS due to join patrol in SCS, visiting phillippine with warship/sub, given phillippine weapon deal etc. also try to convince Cambodia attitude toward China in the recent ASEAN meeting etc etc. Bunch little things, which china see Japan muddy the water. Recent Chinese boat intrusion into East could be indication they are trying to shift Japan SCS attention toward east. This is contrary compare to S.korea which stay neutral on SCS.

 

[swerve]

unintended consequence I always use that spelling on forums in case the filters kick in

Testing,testing . . .
Scunthorpe.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Testing,testing . . .
Scunthorpe.

not all forum software seems to adopt string parameters in their naughty word filters

in other forums that vaginal injection would be rejected

 

[gf0012-aust]

China do perceive Japan involved in ScS due to join patrol in SCS, visiting phillippine with warship/sub, given phillippine weapon deal etc. also try to convince Cambodia attitude toward China in the recent ASEAN meeting etc etc. Bunch little things, which china see Japan muddy the water. Recent Chinese boat intrusion into East could be indication they are trying to shift Japan SCS attention toward east. This is contrary compare to S.korea which stay neutral on SCS.

its irrelevant. chinese hawks have been pushing for a war with japan for decades, they just want any excuse

the only thing that has driven and convinced japan that the constitution needed changing was the increasing and more shrill rhetoric coming out of china - she certainly hasn't been seeking conflict, and for china to even argue that is just trite nonsense

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Japan is said to be in a dialogue with the Philippines to provide Manila with two large coastguard ships, those ships will be 90 meters in length, but it is unclear if those things are armed.

Japan in talks to provide Philippines with two coast guard ships to patrol South China Sea

Japan is expected to deliver the vessels next week as part of a deal on defence equipment.
By Nandini Krishnamoorthy
August 12, 2016 10:38 BST

Complete article at South China Sea: Japan to help Philippines with two coast guard ships to boost maritime security

 

[tonnyc]

The cooperation framework behind the larger coast guard ships is similar to the cooperation framework for the 44 mm boats. Those ships will not be armed but will have water cannons. Thus it is likely that the larger ships will also be unarmed but have water cannons. It is likely the Philippine Coast Guard will install a few .50 cal machine guns when they get the ships, but that's up to the Philippines, not Japan.

gf0012-aust is right though. The hawks political faction of China is looking for a war. I expect to see China casting this as Japan arming the Philippines and point to that as proof that Japan is destabilizing the region.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Chinese Defence Minister has called for substantial preparation for a peoples war at sea because of "offshore security threats". This call was made quite recently after the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea ruling went against China.

James Holmes has written an interesting piece that's posted on the National Interest website. Is China Getting Ready to Wage a 'People's War' in the South China Sea?. He raises quite a valid point and I quote:

Party leaders have regaled the populace with how they will use seagoing forces to right historical wrongs and win the nation nautical renown. They must now follow through.

It was foolish to tie China’s national dignity and sovereignty to patently absurd claims to islands and seas. But party leaders did so. And they did so repeatedly, publicly, and in the most unyielding terms imaginable. By their words they stoked nationalist sentiment while making themselves accountable to it. They set in motion a toxic cycle of rising popular expectations. (Emphasis added)

Breaking that cycle could verge on impossible. If Beijing relented from its maritime claims now, ordinary Chinese would—rightly—judge the leadership by the standard it set. Party leaders would stand condemned as weaklings who surrendered sacred territory, failed to avenge China’s century of humiliation despite China’s rise to great power, and let jurists and lesser neighbors backed by a certain superpower flout big, bad China’s will.

No leader relishes being seen as a weakling. It’s positively dangerous in China. As the greats of diplomacy teach, it’s tough for negotiators or political leaders to climb down from public commitments. Make a promise and you bind yourself to keep it. Fail to keep it and you discredit yourself—and court disaster in the bargain.

Like any sane leadership, Beijing prefers to get its way without fighting. Fighting, though, could be the least bad of the options party leaders have left themselves. Quite the predicament they’ve made for themselves.

And that IMHO is now the crux of the situation. The Party Leaders have backed themselves into a corner where they cannot be seen by the Party or the population to falter, for to do so would ultimately spell doom for them personally and may prove to be deleterious to their continued personal survival.

They will fight any sea war differently to what we are used to, in that their strategies and tactics will be different. They have a good chance of winning in the long term because they will be fighting a grouping made up of disparate forces and allies, who may not have the same determination, long term view and commitment that they do. I believe that this situation is going to become worse as time goes by.

 

[recce.k1]

The article states "Breaking that cycle could verge on impossible. If Beijing relented from its maritime claims now, ordinary Chinese would—rightly—judge the leadership by the standard it set. " and so on.

Which I get, but are we viewing that through a "Western lens"? I mean if the Party leaders lessened the rhetoric and confrontations (and in time quietly withdrew some of their combat capable elements), would the "people" know any better?

One thing going for the Party leadership is that they control their media, who won't have to report anything has changed (if fact, they can report nothing at all)! It's not like they have "Western" type media questioning every move or change in policy or direction of their own Government (unlike our own shrilling Western media that we have to put up with).

And as for foreign media, well if the Party leaders do things slowly and on the quiet over time then Western media will be too lazy to pick it up! Sure defence and foreign affairs analysts will question a perceived change but at the end of the day they only have a smaller following and the MSM generally will ignore them.

Just some thoughts, might be pie in the sky wishful thinking on my behalf, but there are other paths to take perhaps? The Party can still play the long game of course, but at least avoid a loss of face from a bloodied nose in the meantime and maintain their all important economic growth and hence internal stability.

 

[tonnyc]

^^^
China's Communist Party is not monolithic. There is actually a lot of horse-trading and bickering within. We can see the spill-out sometimes whenever a high ranking officer suddenly falls, followed by a quick clean-up of his followers and sympathizers.

If the Party starts backing down, it is going to be very hard to keep the media mum and instruct the folks behind the Great Firewall to squash the topic because the hawks will see it as an opportunity to destroy the doves. Both sides then will try to use the media to sway the neutral/uncommitted faction and also to sway the masses. The Party is very sensitive to public sentiment, it is part of the reason why they try so hard to control it.

So you can't expect the Party to tell the media to shut up in this matter. They could, but to do so would mean that behind the scenes the doves already triumphed over the hawks. So far it doesn't look like that's happening. If anything, it's the opposite.

Edit: then how can there be a peaceful resolution that is acceptable to all (well, most) parties? I think that will require a generation to do. They can start by slowly removing the rhetoric that the claimed area are sovereign homeland territory and switch to exclusive economic zones. Because EEZ can be traded around, but homeland sovereign territory is sacred and must be defended to the death. This change of rhetoric will require a decade or two. It's not easy undoing the effects of decades of internal propaganda. Once the people of China starts thinking of the claimed area as EEZ, negotiation on the exact line can begin.

 

[Volkodav]

So...?? In that 5000 years civilization..is there any Chinese Settlement in South China Sea ? Where are they now ?
What's your point that in Ice Age that SEA Arcihipelago is not islands ?..google a bit and everybody knows that Java, Sumatra and Borneo is part of Asiatic landmass and Papua is part of Australian landmass..in the last Ice Age..

So are you saying because of that China as the 'lord' of Asia can also claim Sumatra, Java and Borneo..While Australia can claim Papua ?

Like I said..and others already point..nothing legitimate can be derived on claiming sovereignty on ancient maps..or traditional claim..yes post WW2 border is not perfect for everybody..but does not mean anybody who disliked it can throw it away and set their own border based on some 'ancient' claim..

If based on Ancient Claim..than Mongolia can claim much part of Northern China..and much of Siberia..instead has to settle on their present border which only small fraction of their once huge empire..
China's Inner Mongolia teritory is traditionally belong to Mongolian Tribes/Nation..will China willing to give back Inner Mongolia to Ulan Bator sovereignty..??

If China wants to claim something based on ancient claim..whille many parts of western teritory or northern teritory is not part of Ancient Chinese empire of old..whether it is Qi, Han, Tang, Song, or Ming..Will China wants to carved its teritory based on someone else ancient claim ?

The truth is simple..China think now it's strong enough to push everybody in the region to recognise its claim on SCS..and got angry..because turn out..many still not willing and stand up against its claim.

With that attitude..well it's every nations (that still want to preserved International order) duty..to 'contain' China SCS ambition.

Very well put, thankyou for that.

We definitely need a"like" button.

 

[Volkodav]

+1

a list of some of chinas emerging problems

• 25m new military aged unemployed young men are appearing every year
• huge disconnection between city and country people - the north west, south west and west are frustrated that all development appears on the economic hubs and the regions are left to fend for themselves
• the push to modernise means that less labour intensive jobs are available - so those unemployed young men can't get the factory jobs that were prev available
• a huge disproportion of males to females - and a trend where foreign males are seen as a better catch
• a high proportion of the 25m new additionals are uneducated - and the women are after smarter men
• the education system can't keep up with the population
• a rising sense of nationalism or nativism and where the countries leaders turn on and turn off the patriotism to suit their narrative - this is happening far more frequently - and in real terms starts to indicate that maybe the govt has less control than what they portray
• a rising resentment by the corrupt military elements as the civil administration side makes an attempt to weed out corruption - and is failing, especially with respect to forfeiture of traditional commune properties to make way for retail and industrial developments. its a universal truth, that property development in a lot of cultures invites some dislocation if not worse corruption. this is also being played out in the rural areas
• pollution levels that are killing arable land and impacting upon general health and wellbeing
• an increasing bellicosity by the hawks that they should go to war with the US and/or Japan sooner rather than later
• a massive inferiority complex across the nation stemming from the Arrow Wars in the 1840's and a strong desire to be retributive as payback to the west - this is a very strong theme with the Hawks
• problems with water supply and quality
• problems feeding the population and becoming more dependent on imports as arable land gets taken up by commercial interests and any available land has a high risk of being compromised due to pollution issues etc...
• knock on effects of one child policy
• knock on effects of no family support for the elders in the new economy

I could go on, but you get the drift

the west was hoping that if trade ties were strong then the possibility of war would be reduced and we could all sit around the table and sing kumbayah
the hawks are fundamentally disinterested and want to turn the PACRIM into a chinese lake - and considering how much world commerce and trade goes through the SCS and ECS, then thats a scarey thought if the chinese decide to start declaring it as national zones and reinforce it with ongoing military exercises which will add costs to goods as it will cause trade routes to be adjusted to bypass contested areas - and that will only work so far.

however, they won't be shy about dropping dragons teeth into sea lanes of interest

all in all its a cluster, and I think that chinas has bought the worst case scenarios forward by 10 years at least - and that sooner rather than later, there will be a maritime incident involving shooting and lives lost

a lot of people don't realise that china has the dubious history of being involved with military incursions and punch ups with every one of its land neighbours since WW2, and that she's already had a shooting war with Vietnam in 1988 over the Spratleys, and that she's caused naval friction with 4 of the countries making claims on the Spratleys/Paracels. She's far from being benign, and this notion that she promotes that she doesn't fight but negotiates is absolute tosh

It almost reads like the preface to a dystopian novel or movie, you know the ones where its the US or Europe that has degenerated into a totalitarian state. Interesting times and unfortunately there are still too many making money and gaining power out of letting them get away with it for the rest of the world to adequately respond and perhaps avert armed conflict. I recall reading somewhere that had France alone mobilised in response to Germany's move on the Rhineland, WWII could have been averted and Hitler likely deposed. Similar with the union with Austria but Czechoslovakia was too late.

 

[cdxbow]

Harry J. Kazianis believes things will hot up after the G20 meeting in September - Report: China Could Make a Big Move in the South China Sea Starting Next Month | The National Interest Blog

Assuming PRC does make a move on the Scarborough Shoal as suggested, what options does the Philippines and the USA have? One option for the Philippines is to agree to the PRC demands in return for various 'economic incentives', which would leave the US in a very difficult positon.

BTW I have noticed the PRC propaganda machine has really kicked into overdrive in western and Asian media channels. It's makes very interesting reading, often reminiscent of Nazi propaganda for lebensraum. See att. pic.

Also I did come across this one Xi Calls for ?New World Order? Dominated by China and Russia and the Elimination of the US : Science : Chinatopix with Xi using very inflammatory rhetoric allegedly from the recent Party Congress. How should we interpret this?

 

[gf0012-aust]

I'm starting to fear that there is an inevitability in this...

'Prolonged, destructive' United States, China war possible, ex-Obama intelligence adviser says - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)