War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

The situation around Aleppo has temporarily stabilized as both sides seem to be out of reinforcements for now. A large rebel convoy en route to the battle was hit by the Syrians, and a Hezbollah btln-sized unit is being re-deployed to the area. However the current stability can't last. Heavy fighting will resume as soon as both sides can bring additional forces into the area. As is, Aleppo is still impossible to resupply because no open road is fully in rebel hands.

And it appears the SAA may have learned (after 5 years :rolleyes ) to destroy captured equipment. The Artillery Base, after being captured by the rebels, was pounded non-stop by artillery and air. Some of the munitions there detonated but the exact extent of the damage is unclear since most of the photos and videos pre-date the intense bombardment which continues sporadically even now.

Битва за Ðлеппо. 07.08.2016. День - Онлайн - Colonel Cassad
Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка под Ðлеппо. 07.08.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ Ðлеппо к вечеру 07.08.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Бои на юго-западе Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин

Meanwhile the SAA is assaulting Kinsabba, again. They lost it in a earlier rebel offensive and are now re-taking it.

Finally the Kurds have isolated ISIS forces in the town center of Manbij, and hold ~90% of the town, but the fight is not over yet.

КинÑабба и Манбидж - Colonel Cassad

An interesting detail, Russia has said that the UAV that violated Israeli airspace was Russian, and the reason was "operator error".

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/424101

 

[STURM]

It's still unclear whether they actually had rockets. It's about 10-12km separating Batam and Singapore. The good news they were caught. The bad news is that they're almost certainly other cells still out there.

 

[bdique]

It's still unclear whether they actually had rockets. It's about 10-12km separating Batam and Singapore. The good news they were caught. The bad news is that they're almost certainly other cells still out there.

The distance I was referred to was in the range of 25 to 30km (link). It would probably require a military-grade weapon to cover that distance and still be effective. Like you, I'm glad they are caught, but who knows how many other cells are out there.

 

[ngatimozart]

Updates

Two years of airstrikes against Daesh in Iraq have changed the map of Iraq.

Many western anti Daesh volunteer fighters are American with many of them military veterans.

Iraq has received a new tranche of F16s.

Syrian Democratic Forces have forced Daesh from Manbij and are now mopping up the diehard holdouts.

Daesh appeared to have captured some equipment from US SOF operating in Nangahar, Afghanistan.

Humanitarian relief groups are now preparing for to cope with refugees from the battle to liberate Mosul and its aftermath.

The US and Russia are having a bun fight over the siege of Aleppo and restrictions on allowing humanitarian aid into the civilians.

Iranian backed militia fighters from Lebanon and Iraq have converged on Aleppo to assist the SAA in retaking the city.

The UN Security Council has been informed of the conditions inside besieged Aleppo with accounts of deliberate air attacks on hospitals and gas warfare.

Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) also claims that one of the hospitals it supports in northern Syria was hit in daylight by two of four airstrikes.

 

[ngatimozart]

Updates

Apparently a small number of US forces are on the ground in Libya directing Coalition airstrikes against Daesh.
Pentagon acknowledges US ground forces supporting ISIS fight in Libya

Another warning that even after defeating Daesh in Iraq and Syria, it will morph into an insurgency that will continue to destabilise the region.

The US Commander for the Coalition fight against Daesh is claiming that the campaign has removed 45,000 Daesh combatants from the fight.

A Coalition airstrike over the weekend destroyed 83 Daesh oil trucks during the weekend. The value of the trucks and oil is estimated to be around US$11 million. Apparently they were parked in the open. Fools. nfloorl:

US backed militia in Libya has taken over the Daesh HQ in Sirte.

There are reports that terrorist groups like Daesh are increasingly funding groups in Asia.
Overseas Money Is ‘Financing Terrorism in Southeast Asia’.
Terrorists Channelling Funds Into Southeast Asia, Says Risk Study

It has been suggested that the battle for Aleppo could turn into being the most crucial battle so far of the Syrian civil war. Meanwhile Russia has declared daily three hour ceasefires to allow humanitarian aid into Aleppo. There has also been a suspected chlorine gas attack in Aleppo, being the result of a Syrian govt airstrike. The source is Fox News who are citing activists, so no guarantee of authenticity from either source. Apparently the make up of the rebel groups in Aleppo is now trending towards hard-line islamist groups.

Turkish and Russian officials are going to meet in Moscow to discuss a way of finding a solution to the situation in Syria. Maybe something will come out of it, maybe not.

There are allegations that the Russians have using Russian mercenaries in Syria, with a KIA count of 500 - 600 so far. Apparently it is a highly secretive enterprise with each mercenary being paid the equivalent of £3,000 per month (if they live to collect). NOTE the original source of this story, the Wagner Group, is a highly disreputable source. c/ref Feanors post below.

A look at why so many foreign fighters have joined Daesh.

Addition
Three more articles:
Mental Illness and Terrorism
Aleppo: Is the Turnaround Sustainable for the Rebels?
What Russia and Turkey Bring to Syria

 

[Feanor]

Ngati the Wagner Group story originates with a highly disreputable source. While it's crystal clear that some sort of Russian private military contractors operate in Syria (and likely did/are in Ukraine) I would treat anything about Wagner as mythology until confirmed independently if possible. It certainly doesn't help that Fontanka was the publication that ran with the story originally.

 

[ngatimozart]

Ngati the Wagner Group story originates with a highly disreputable source. While it's crystal clear that some sort of Russian private military contractors operate in Syria (and likely did/are in Ukraine) I would treat anything about Wagner as mythology until confirmed independently if possible. It certainly doesn't help that Fontanka was the publication that ran with the story originally.

Cool thanks Feanor. I will annotate the post as such.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russia has begun using an airbase in Iran, to conduct airstrikes in Syria with Tu-22M3s. This explains quite well the drastically increased Tu-22M3 strikes recently. They've also filed a request for airspace use for cruise missile strikes, over Iraq and Iran. Presumably it's another Kalibr strikes from the Caspian. It should be noted, two Small Missile Ships of the BSF are currently in the Mediterranean, also capable of participating.

Первый удар ВКС РоÑÑии Ñ Ð¸Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñкой тактичеÑкой авиабазы Хамадан - Юрий ЛÑмин
Ту-22Ðœ3 ВКС РоÑÑии на 3-й тактичеÑкой авиабазе ВВС Ирана к Ñеверу от Хамадана - bmpd
Иди вон, на кошках потренируйÑÑ... (Ñ) - Берлога Бронемедведа
Удары по Ракке - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêèì áîìáàðäèðîâùèêàì ðàçðåøèëè èñïîëüçîâàòü àâèàáàçó â Èðàíå

Iraqi Kurds are on the offensive again, near Mosul.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èðàêñêèå êóðäû íà÷àëè ìàñøòàáíîå íàñòóïëåíèå îêîëî Ìîñóëà

An explosion killed 15 in a refugee camp in northern Syria, near the Turkish border.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íå ìåíåå 15 ÷åëîâåê ïîãèáëè ïðè âçðûâå íà ãðàíèöå Òóðöèè è Ñèðèè

A Tigr armored car participating in combat action in Syria. Entirely possible that the crew/passengers are Russian military.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии броневик "Тигр" ÑÐ¿Ð°Ñ Ð¶Ð¸Ð·Ð½ÑŒ разведчикам

Possible T-34-85 sighting in Syria. Man those things have resilience. Iirc at least one reared it's head in Yemen, along with an SP gun on the same chassis. Curiously enough an ARV using the T-34 chassis was usedlitary in the east.

Gur Khan attacks!: 75 лет на войне

Egypt is fighting a full-fledged war against ISIS in the Sinai.

ТеррориÑÑ‚Ñ‹ "ИÑламÑкого ГоÑударÑтва" и египетÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Синае - bmpd

British SpecOps in Syria.

ТеррориÑÑ‚Ñ‹ "ИÑламÑкого ГоÑударÑтва" и египетÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Синае - bmpd

 

[gazzzwp]

China to provide 'aid and to enhance military training in Syria'.

https://www.rt.com/news/356161-china-syria-military-training/

How long could it be before we see PLA troops on the ground in the region? How would they interface with the Iranians and Russians? Would it make things better or make them worse?

I personally believe from the signals coming out of Beijing that this is on the cards. Would the Russians welcome their involvement or would it represent an embarrassment? Sorry about all of the questions.

 

[gazzzwp]

Apologies for posting again so soon but the conflict seems to be becoming ever more complex strategically with Iran and Russia playing an ever bigger role while the US now seemingly becoming irrelevant.

According to Fox 100 000 Iranian fighters now in Iraq?

US officials: Up to 100,000 Iran-backed fighters now in Iraq | Fox News

What does the Iraq administration say about such a sizable Shia influence within it's borders? With Turkey's (predominantly Sunni) role now pretty much unclear, and things going quite from Saudi Arabia's perspective where does this actually leave the US? Pretty redundant I would have thought.

Opinions anyone?

Just a further thought and that is that last year we were concerned about the financial cost of the war to Russia (declining economy, oil price still low) yet they have stepped up the campaign again after something of a lull in the Spring. Could this war now be significantly costing Russia?

 

[STURM]

Apologies for posting again so soon but the conflict seems to be becoming ever more complex strategically with Iran and Russia playing an ever bigger role while the US now seemingly becoming irrelevant.

What's clear is that the decades long U.S. policy of containing Iran has failed and that when it comes to defeating IS; Iran has actually more to offer than traditional U.S. allies/friends such as Saudi and Qatar. In the past, I've offered the opinion that a U.S./Iran rapprochement benefits not only both countries but also the region as well.

What does the Iraq administration say about such a sizable Shia influence within it's borders? With Turkey's (predominantly Sunni) role now pretty much unclear, and things going quite from Saudi Arabia's perspective where does this actually leave the US? Pretty redundant I would have thought.

I doubt if the Shia dominated Iraqi government has any major issues with this; given that Iraq's population has a Shia majority and Iran sent troops to combat IS at a time when they were badly needed. No doubt many Sunni Iraqis who already feel discriminated at the hands of the fellow Shia citizens will be suspicious of Iran's motives and one can't really blame them, given the reports of harsh treatment meted out to Sunnis by Iraqi Shia militias in areas recaptured from IS.

Behind the scenes, despite some level of distrust that the U.S. has for Iran and vice versa [unsurprising given that ties between both countries have been strained since 1979]; I'm sure the U.S. has finally - grudgingly - come around to accepting that Iran has a positive role to play in defeating IS. It's ironic but it was the U.S. invasion and the toppling of Saddam that enabled relations between a Shia dominated Iraqi government and a Shia Iran to reach where they are now.

 

[gazzzwp]

What's clear is that the decades long U.S. policy of containing Iran has failed and that when it comes to defeating IS; Iran has actually more to offer than traditional U.S. allies/friends such as Saudi and Qatar. In the past, I've offered the opinion that a U.S./Iran rapprochement benefits not only both countries but also the region as well.



I doubt if the Shia dominated Iraqi government as any major issues with this; given that Iraq's population has a Shia majority and Iran sent troops to combat IS at a time when they were badly needed. Behind the scenes, despite some level of distrust that the U.S. has for Iran [unsurprising given that ties between both countries have been strained since 1979]; I'm sure the U.S. has finally come around to accepting that Iran has a positive role to play in defeating IS. It's ironic but it was the U.S. invasion and the toppling of Saddam that enabled relations between a Shia dominated Iraqi government and a Shia Iran to reach where they are now.

Thanks for the response Sturm. Can I just press you please for an opinion on where the US should go from here?

Edit to add: Particularly bearing in mind the US backed rebels are teaming up with Al Qaeda.

 

[STURM]

Thanks for the response Sturm. Can I just press you please for an opinion on where the US should go from here? .

In Syria, the U.S. should do away with the totally unrealistic policy of insisting that Assad has to go. Focus should be on defeating IS and groups like it. If Assad prematurely goes, the only hope is that the Syrian army will step in. If that doesn't happen it will spell further disaster for an already wrecked and divided Syria; something that IS will welcome.

Syrian army likely to take power says expert Robert Fisk | Irish Examiner

The US is dropping calls for Assad to go because the Syrian regime is a better bet than Isis

In Iraq, the U.S. has to use all the influence it has to pressure the Iraqi government to mend relations with the Sunni community. No point trying to defeat IS when many Iraqi Sunnis are supporting IS not because of ideology but because of fear of what happens when areas they live in are recaptured by Iraqi Shia militias. Strained ties between the Shia and Sunni communities benefits IS.

There are so many foreign backers in the Syrian war that nothing is changing – rebels hope that Hillary Clinton could change that

 

[ngatimozart]

Apologies for posting again so soon but the conflict seems to be becoming ever more complex strategically with Iran and Russia playing an ever bigger role while the US now seemingly becoming irrelevant.

According to Fox 100 000 Iranian fighters now in Iraq?

US officials: Up to 100,000 Iran-backed fighters now in Iraq | Fox News

Can you find another source to back this up. Fox News are not the most reliable of sources. They push a very particular political line.

 

[Feanor]

An SAA offensive has retaken the 1070 apartments near the breakthrough to Aleppo.

Meanwhile ISIS has used homemade chemical weapons against the rebels around Mari.

Коротко по Сирии - Colonel Cassad

Massive Russian airstrikes have hit rebel positions west of Aleppo, at night. There are reports of Kalibr strikes but nothing solid so far.

ÐÐ¾Ñ‡Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñ€Ð°Ð±Ð¾Ñ‚Ð° - Colonel Cassad

In the wake of Russian airstrikes from a base in Iran, the Us has suggested that Russian use of that base is a violation sanctions against Iran. It also appears that Su-34s are using that base as well.

Удары роÑÑийÑких Ту-22Ðœ3 и Су-34 Ñ Ð¸Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñкой авиабазы Хамадан - bmpd
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ çàïîäîçðèëè ÐÔ â íàðóøåíèè ðåçîëþöèè ÎÎÍ èç-çà èñïîëüçîâàíèÿ âîåííîé áàçû â Èðàíå

Human Rights Watch has accused Russia of using incendiary munitions in Syria. Just so we're clear, there is little, if any, room for doubt about whether Russia has used them. They have.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Human Rights Watch îáâèíèëà Ìîñêâó è Äàìàñê â ïðèìåíåíèè çàæèãàòåëüíîãî îðóæèÿ

Some materials on the recent chemical attack in Aleppo. Bellingcat seems convinced that the attack must have come from the SAA but personally I'm not so sure. The only piece of evidence is eye-witness claim from a single person. Even if the chemical strike coincided with an airstrike, more investigation is necessary to positively conclude the origin.

https://www.bellingcat.com/uncatego...lorine-gas-that-targeted-civilians-in-aleppo/

Germany seems to now be accusing Erdogan of collaborating with terrorists and Islamic fundamentalists. This of course is hilariously two-faced. While Erdogan was a loyal member of the coalition, everyone closed their eyes on his connections with radicals and alleged support of ISIS. Now that he's looking at joining the Russo-Iranian coalition, suddenly this is rolled out. As f it was a big surprise. As if Russia hadn't made the same accusations following the Su-24 downing.

Запоздавшие Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð­Ñ€Ð´Ð¾Ð³Ð°Ð½Ð° - Colonel Cassad

 

[John Fedup]

What's clear is that the decades long U.S. policy of containing Iran has failed and that when it comes to defeating IS; Iran has actually more to offer than traditional U.S. allies/friends such as Saudi and Qatar. In the past, I've offered the opinion that a U.S./Iran rapprochement benefits not only both countries but also the region as well.

Whether some rapprochement with Iran is feasible is an open question. What is fact is what Colin Powell said, about Iraq, "if you break it , you own it". I think he was right. Worse still, the resources that went into to the Iraq war may have made a real difference in the Afghanistan. Saddam was a POS but he was a great counter-weight to Iran. Way better than the royal inbreeds of Saudi Arabia and Qatar as their efforts Yemen have confirmed. Too bad about WMD (i.e. the nuclear stuff) lies that led to the Iraq War.

 

[gazzzwp]

In Syria, the U.S. should do away with the totally unrealistic policy of insisting that Assad has to go. Focus should be on defeating IS and groups like it. If Assad prematurely goes, the only hope is that the Syrian army will step in. If that doesn't happen it will spell further disaster for an already wrecked and divided Syria; something that IS will welcome.

Syrian army likely to take power says expert Robert Fisk | Irish Examiner

The US is dropping calls for Assad to go because the Syrian regime is a better bet than Isis

In Iraq, the U.S. has to use all the influence it has to pressure the Iraqi government to mend relations with the Sunni community. No point trying to defeat IS when many Iraqi Sunnis are supporting IS not because of ideology but because of fear of what happens when areas they live in are recaptured by Iraqi Shia militias. Strained ties between the Shia and Sunni communities benefits IS.

There are so many foreign backers in the Syrian war that nothing is changing – rebels hope that Hillary Clinton could change that

Agree with your adding up. The US does seem to be more like a spare man at a wedding with real allies in the region rather sparse.

Saudi Arabia is becoming indifferent to the cause, Turkey is a disaffected partner, Iraq being influenced more by Iranians; I suppose the Kurds are still an ally though.

If I were Obama I would quietly withdraw from the region altogether and save a few billion on Hell Fire missiles and other expensive munitions. The Russians and Iranians are the real players in this fight.

 

[Toblerone]

I believe Russia's deployment in Syria elevated their geopolitical standing significantly in the long term. China wants to do the same, so some kind of deployment in Syria would give them the opportunity. Bombing jihadists gives you a good opportunity to show off your military capabilities to the world without too much danger.

Imagine the impact a bold deployment in the Middle East would make on the South China Sea poker game they are playing. It would prove that they are not just barking.

On another note, where would Iraq be without iranian support? In Syria, how would the situation look if the russians hadn't intervened when they did? Al Nusra would have obliterated any US-backed groups and there would be no end in sight. ISIS would have Palmyra, many more oil fields, would have eventually massacred Deir Ezzor and would have tens of thousands more fighters due to fewer losses and more recruits.

I think the current situation isn't that bad. The jihadis are contained and bleeding around Aleppo. They must have suffered significant losses these past weeks, in the long term their fighting power will be diminished in my opinion.

 

[STURM]

Whether some rapprochement with Iran is feasible is an open question.

It's not an open question as it's already happening. Both the U.S. and Iran share common interests and behind the scenes there is dialogue.

Way before the rapprochement and even after Iran was declared a member of the ''Axis of Evil''; there was already some form of cooperation. Iran shared intel on Al Qaeda, it agreed to close an eye if the U.S. mounted any SAR sorties for downed aircraft crews along or even inside the Iranian border and assisted in efforts to defeat the Taliban. Iran, along with Russia and India, was off course providing aid to the Norther Alliance at a time when the U.S. was refusing t provide the Northern Alliance with any weapons.

I suppose the Kurds are still an ally though.

The Kurds are treading very carefully; after all, at various times they have been courted and then played out by everyone.

On another note, where would Iraq be without iranian support? In Syria, how would the situation look if the russians hadn't intervened when they did?

Had Iranian units not arrived in Iraq when they did; Is would have certainly captured much more territory. The arrival of the Iranians allowed the Iraqis to re-organise themselves. To be fair to the Iraqis; for some time they were saying that the situation in Syria would spill over into Iraq but the West didn't pay much attention.

in the long term their fighting power will be diminished in my opinion.

As long as they are able to attract volunteers to their cause; it's irrelevant as to how much of their fighting power is reduced. The fact that IS is still there, still holds ground and still attract volunteers despite all the firepower hurled at it is worrying.

 

[gazzzwp]

I believe Russia's deployment in Syria elevated their geopolitical standing significantly in the long term. China wants to do the same, so some kind of deployment in Syria would give them the opportunity. Bombing jihadists gives you a good opportunity to show off your military capabilities to the world without too much danger.

Totally agree. Just to add though that China's involvement would not be without risk. Consider Russia who have tried out some of their new toys allowing the US to gain vital information to use in counter measures. I find it hard to believe that the US has not learned a very great deal for example about the Krasuka EW system for example.