War Against ISIS

[gazzzwp]

Some signs here of a possible escalation. US stepping in to show support for the Kurds after they were apparently bombed by the Syrian air force.

https://www.rt.com/usa/356527-us-syria-jets-pentagon/

Obviously showing that they are prepared to defend their special forces on the ground who are working with the Kurds.

More here:

Syrian Kurdish City Becomes Flashpoint as US Scrambles Aircraft to Protect Coalition Troops

For information F-22's met Syrian SU-24's. The Syria jets left the area apparently on 'seeing' the US.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/0...ikes-land-near-special-operations-forces.html

Edit to add. The above occurred on Friday. Apparently there has been another Syrian bombing raid against the Kurds today. Is this a coincidence that soon after Erdogan and Putin kiss and make up, the Syrians go after the Kurds? Has the US been left high and dry again?

 

[Feanor]

For information F-22's met Syrian SU-24's. The Syria jets left the area apparently on 'seeing' the US.

US warns Syria after regime airstrikes land near special operations forces | Fox News

Edit to add. The above occurred on Friday. Apparently there has been another Syrian bombing raid against the Kurds today. Is this a coincidence that soon after Erdogan and Putin kiss and make up, the Syrians go after the Kurds? Has the US been left high and dry again?

I don't think it's a coincidence. I think that the Kurds were looking for some sort of deal to be proposed by Assad on their potential autonomy. As is, they're trying to force the SAA out of Kurdish held areas. And while before negotiation was the typical way they resolved conflicts, this time the Syrians immediately escalated to air strikes. I don't think it's a smart move either, but Assad is desperate for room to maneuver. He doesn't want to be left dependent on Russia and Russia alone, and the high-level meetings that have taken place between Turkey and Syria seem to indicate that he might be willing to deal with Erdogan.

Russia is an enemy of the West, anything that inhibits it is a positive development in the same way the Soviets viewed Vietnam and the West viewed the Soviet/Afghan conflict.

I think you're conflating "the west" and "the US of A". ;-)

 

[Feanor]

For information F-22's met Syrian SU-24's. The Syria jets left the area apparently on 'seeing' the US.

US warns Syria after regime airstrikes land near special operations forces | Fox News

Edit to add. The above occurred on Friday. Apparently there has been another Syrian bombing raid against the Kurds today. Is this a coincidence that soon after Erdogan and Putin kiss and make up, the Syrians go after the Kurds? Has the US been left high and dry again?

Also, it appears Syrian Su-22s hit positions near US forces, and this is why the F-22s were dispatched. The US has also sent Russia a notice that if the lives of US troops are threatened, the US will defend itself.

 

[John Fedup]

Like it or not, Assad remains the least ugly option. The various rebel factions are either too weak or worse than Assad. As for the Shia/Sunni divide, let them sort it out. Do we really have to choose a side? Both suck IMO.

 

[Feanor]

Like it or not, Assad remains the least ugly option. The various rebel factions are either too weak or worse than Assad. As for the Shia/Sunni divide, let them sort it out. Do we really have to choose a side? Both suck IMO.

Is Assad an option though? Even if the west lets him win in Aleppo and Idlib, and with Turkey changing their stance that's a real possibility, the Kurds are still dead-set on either broad autonomy or independence. Meanwhile Assad is against the autonomy and considers Syria to be indivisible. There's also the fact that the Kurds are in no hurry to assault Raqqa, and instead are interested in linking their two enclaves through Azaz. In response to the question "where will we be 3 years from now" I suspect we will have a partitioned Syria, with ISIS in the east, Assad in the west, and the Kurds in the north. To be honest, I've said it before and I'll say it again, the smartest thing Assad could do is offer the Kurds their independence, in exchange for clearly defined borders, and their help in re-establishing control over the rest of Syria. But with the Russo-Turkish rapprochement, and Turkey making nice with Iran, that option seems to be off the table.

 

[Toblerone]

If Assad sells off a part of Syria won't that make him lose the support of some of the military and paramilitary forces? Can he really go back on his assurances of an indivisible Syria? The nationalism angle?

What about the christian, assyrian and other minorities in those lands? And generally the arab population there? Will he abandon them and let them be minorities in this new kurdish state?

These are hard pills to swallow.

And then, there is Turkey. Allowing the creation of a kurdish state on their border would be considered by most turks an epic failure, whoever leader allows this to happen will go down in turkish history as an impotent traitor. A turkish invasion is very possible. Otherwise there may even be ... a coup

Well, I am not familiar with internal syrian or turkish politics and the sentiment of the population, so I may be off in my above thoughts.

On another note, is anyone else thinking that after Mosul eventually falls, there will be an influx of shia militias into Syria? And it may shift the balance of forces?

 

[Feanor]

If Assad sells off a part of Syria won't that make him lose the support of some of the military and paramilitary forces? Can he really go back on his assurances of an indivisible Syria? The nationalism angle?

How much Syrian nationalism is there? I'm not an expert, I'm looking at this purely from the foreign policy angle. Because let's face it, Assad doesn't currently control Syrian Kurdistan, the Kurds do. And they intend to keep things that way. Assad has enough problems trying to pacify the various rebels in western Syria, and after the disastrous Tabka push, ISIS isn't a real priority.

Syria hasn't been a country long. Do the people there consider themselves "Syrian" the way say a Russian would consider themselves Russian?

What about the christian, assyrian and other minorities in those lands? And generally the arab population there? Will he abandon them and let them be minorities in this new kurdish state?

If Assad was offering independence he'd be in a fairly strong position as to dictating the borders of the new state. That having been said, I've taken a look at an ethnic map and you're correct. The Kurds would either be broken up into 2-4 enclaves that are separated or there'd be considerable territory inhabited by other ethnic groups. Of course this doesn't take into account the recent war. I wonder how many of those territories are even populated today.

These are hard pills to swallow.

And then, there is Turkey. Allowing the creation of a kurdish state on their border would be considered by most turks an epic failure, whoever leader allows this to happen will go down in turkish history as an impotent traitor. A turkish invasion is very possible. Otherwise there may even be ... a coup

Well, I am not familiar with internal syrian or turkish politics and the sentiment of the population, so I may be off in my above thoughts.

On another note, is anyone else thinking that after Mosul eventually falls, there will be an influx of shia militias into Syria? And it may shift the balance of forces?

But that would be perfect. US-backed Kurds get their independence, are promptly invaded by Turkey leaving the US between two "friendly" forces, to unf*ck the mess, while Assad consolidates his power. If he could sell it domestically, it would be a brilliant move.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

There's information that FAB-3000s were dropped in Syria. This is one of the heaviest regular air to ground munitions in the VVS arsenal

Ð’ Сирии применены бомбы большой мощноÑти ФÐБ-3000 - nortwolf_sam

Germany continues to supply weapons to the Kurds, despite reports of those weapons ending up on the black market.

Ðемецкое оружие Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¸Ñ€Ð°ÐºÑких курдов: militarizm

A terrorist strike hit Gaziantep, killing and wounding many, details are lacking. This might be ISIS payback for recent activities of Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria.

Взрыв в Газиантепе - Colonel Cassad

Turkey intends to play a bigger role in Syria, and says they're committed to Syrian territorial integrity. They're also willing to work with Assad, during the transitionary period.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðåìüåð Òóðöèè çàÿâèë îá àêòèâèçàöèè ðîëè ñòðàíû â ñèðèéñêîì óðåãóëèðîâàíèè
Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ñ‹Ñтупила против раздела Сирии - Colonel Cassad

Iran states that they intend to let Russia use the Hamadan airbase as needed. The base currently houses 6 Tu-22M3s and 4 Su-34s.

ИранÑкие базы - Colonel Cassad

Some evidence of Russian black ops in Syria.

https://citeam.org/russian-special-operations-forces-secret-losses-in-syria/

Some shots of a rare BTR-4 in Iraq.

БТР-4 ВС Ирака - Берлога Бронемедведа

A Tu-95MS spotted carrying X-101 cruise missiles. It might be a precursor to another strike in Syria.

Ту-95МС Ñ ÐºÑ€Ñ‹Ð»Ð°Ñ‚Ñ‹Ð¼Ð¸ ракетами Ð¥-101 - bmpd

 

[gazzzwp]

How much Syrian nationalism is there? I'm not an expert, I'm looking at this purely from the foreign policy angle. Because let's face it, Assad doesn't currently control Syrian Kurdistan, the Kurds do. And they intend to keep things that way. Assad has enough problems trying to pacify the various rebels in western Syria, and after the disastrous Tabka push, ISIS isn't a real priority.

Syria hasn't been a country long. Do the people there consider themselves "Syrian" the way say a Russian would consider themselves Russian?



If Assad was offering independence he'd be in a fairly strong position as to dictating the borders of the new state. That having been said, I've taken a look at an ethnic map and you're correct. The Kurds would either be broken up into 2-4 enclaves that are separated or there'd be considerable territory inhabited by other ethnic groups. Of course this doesn't take into account the recent war. I wonder how many of those territories are even populated today.



But that would be perfect. US-backed Kurds get their independence, are promptly invaded by Turkey leaving the US between two "friendly" forces, to unf*ck the mess, while Assad consolidates his power. If he could sell it domestically, it would be a brilliant move.

The future of the Kurds will be a major stumbling block. Turkey are against the idea of independence and as we know Turkey are looking more in the direction of Iran, Syria and Russia than the US. On RT this morning there was an an article about the Russians using the Incirlik air base. How would that work alongside US operations one wonders?

https://www.rt.com/news/356626-russia-turkey-incirlik-airbase/

Without the Kurds now the US have little reason to be in the region and I could even foresee them being forced out and facing further humiliation surrendering the whole conflict to Iran and Russian forces.

On the internet you can see Russia's commitment a few months ago to supporting the Kurds, and this was when they were at odds with Turkey over the shoot down incident. Now that Russia smells another point scoring opportunity against the US I'll bet that they have instructed the Syrians and Iranians to push the Kurds back. Or am I prejudging the Russians?

All depends on the Turkey US relationship. If I were the US I would be sitting Turkey down and trying to build bridges fast. There is still the Sunni/Shia divide that persuades me that Turkey will not throw all of their cards in with the Iranians and the Syrians.

Turkey today have said that they intend to play a greater role in the conflict over the next few months to "prevent the country from being divided along ethnic lines". That to me is a direct reference to the Kurds.

Going forward Russia seems predicted to win more kudos in this conflict with the US having their noses further pushed out in an embarrassing withdrawal due to lack of powerful allies with genuine interests.

 

[PO2GRV]

The future of the Kurds will be a major stumbling block. Turkey are against the idea of independence and as we know Turkey are looking more in the direction of Iran, Syria and Russia than the US. On RT this morning there was an an article about the Russians using the Incirlik air base. How would that work alongside US operations one wonders?

https://www.rt.com/news/356626-russia-turkey-incirlik-airbase/

Without the Kurds now the US have little reason to be in the region and I could even foresee them being forced out and facing further humiliation surrendering the whole conflict to Iran and Russian forces.

On the internet you can see Russia's commitment a few months ago to supporting the Kurds, and this was when they were at odds with Turkey over the shoot down incident. Now that Russia smells another point scoring opportunity against the US I'll bet that they have instructed the Syrians and Iranians to push the Kurds back. Or am I prejudging the Russians?

All depends on the Turkey US relationship. If I were the US I would be sitting Turkey down and trying to build bridges fast. There is still the Sunni/Shia divide that persuades me that Turkey will not throw all of their cards in with the Iranians and the Syrians.

Turkey today have said that they intend to play a greater role in the conflict over the next few months to "prevent the country from being divided along ethnic lines". That to me is a direct reference to the Kurds.

Going forward Russia seems predicted to win more kudos in this conflict with the US having their noses further pushed out in an embarrassing withdrawal due to lack of powerful allies with genuine interests.

Or worse it could lead to the US falling back in with the ol' Sunni Gang of Saudi Arabia, UAE et al. They would all back the Kurds if only to weaken the Shia crescent. Hell the old NATO saw wouldnt be too far off here but changed to "America in, Iran out, and the Shia down".

I dont envy the future President Clinton or whomever her SecState will be or the NATO Secretary General. The Kurdish Question will be (is!) a fundamental policy disagreement between rhe US and Turkey. And as "smart" as it would be for Assad to back the Kurds as a way to co-opt them to secure Syria it wont happen since a key policy stance of all his backers is Border Integrity At All Costs -- No Break Ups!

Furthermore i think Russia and Syria and Iran all know that Kurdish independence means a US client state in SW Asia eight un the middle of everyone and everything

 

[gazzzwp]

Or worse it could lead to the US falling back in with the ol' Sunni Gang of Saudi Arabia, UAE et al. They would all back the Kurds if only to weaken the Shia crescent. Hell the old NATO saw wouldnt be too far off here but changed to "America in, Iran out, and the Shia down".

I dont envy the future President Clinton or whomever her SecState will be or the NATO Secretary General. The Kurdish Question will be (is!) a fundamental policy disagreement between rhe US and Turkey. And as "smart" as it would be for Assad to back the Kurds as a way to co-opt them to secure Syria it wont happen since a key policy stance of all his backers is Border Integrity At All Costs -- No Break Ups!

Furthermore i think Russia and Syria and Iran all know that Kurdish independence means a US client state in SW Asia eight un the middle of everyone and everything

The Syrian attack on the Kurdish areas has certainly stirred up a hornets nest in the US camp. The top commander of US operations in Syria and Iraq LT General Stephen Townsend has disclosed that warnings have been given to the Russians and Syrians.

The US is focusing on it's primary objective of defeating IS in Iraq and Syria, and nothing will be allowed to interfere with that.

Well their plan is clear; the rest depends on the Syrians.

Top US commander warns Russia, Syria - CNNPolitics.com

 

[chris]

The only solution I can see on the Syrian problem is a federation of semi autonomous states but with a strong federal government, at least on certain issues like foreign policy and defense. Such a Kurdish state would be a huge step forward for Syrian Kurd nationalist ambitions and may keep them happy. If the Syrian central government keeps control on key aspects of the state, even Turkey could accept it, more so if at the same time is combined with a Turkmen Syrian state as well. Throw a Sunni state in the mix and you can have country that may stabilize in the future.

I just don't know how Saudis and US would feel about such a solution.

 

[STURM]

As for the Shia/Sunni divide, let them sort it out. Do we really have to choose a side? Both suck IMO.

Outsiders fave been meddling the region for a long time and things are not going to change soon. From the creation of artificial borders to the propping up of rulers who who were never chosen by the people; various policies put in place by outsiders - foe their own selfish self-interests -have proven disastrous. Look what's happening in Yemen. The U.S. is providing logistical and intelligence support to the Saudis but why are the Saudis really in Yemen?

We keep hearing - rightly so - about civilian deaths in Syria but what about civilian deaths in Yemen? Sure Assad is no angel but when the price was right and when it suited them; various countries dealt with Assad and his father before. When Assad the Elder razed Hama to the ground, the West didn't say much; after all Assad's enemy was the Muslim Brotherhood.
Not too long ago Assad Junior was the guest of honour at Bastille Day and Syria was a participation in the rendition programme. As for your opinions on the Shia/Sunni divide; I suggest we leave religion and your opinions on it, out of the discussion.

 

[Toblerone]

What an exciting theater. What will be the next surprise to come out of there? Maybe Erdogan will use those very serious ISIS attacks on Turkey and the danger to Syria's integrity as pretexts for a limited invasion in northern Syria. So that he can preempt the kurdish landgrab, the kurdish closing of the borders and the kurdish unification of their lands into a huge territory that looks like a country!

Fighting terrorism and having permission from the ... legitimate government of Syria and its supporters can go a long way. Then that turkish peacekeeping force stationed there will be a strong diplomatic card against kurdish independence. Maybe they would never leave at all.

Assad could declare the kurds terrorists if things escalate more. The turks already strongly consider them terrorists, the story writes itself. And if you think there would be significant international backlash, then I say that Erdogan can promise the fall of Raqqa (which no other force can do) and he can announce the building of refugee centers for mass repatriation. These two plans will make most people shut up and rub their chin thinking.

Sorry about my hypothesizing post but I am becoming obsessed with the concept of blowing away jihadis to push your own agenda.

 

[STURM]

Maybe Erdogan will use those very serious ISIS attacks on Turkey and the danger to Syria's integrity as pretexts for a limited invasion in northern Syria.

Turkey had previously - I think it was in 1995 - threatened to enter north Syria if the Syrian government didn't clamp down on Kurds along the Syrian border who were attacking Turkey.

 

[PO2GRV]

What an exciting theater. What will be the next surprise to come out of there? Maybe Erdogan will use those very serious ISIS attacks on Turkey and the danger to Syria's integrity as pretexts for a limited invasion in northern Syria. So that he can preempt the kurdish landgrab, the kurdish closing of the borders and the kurdish unification of their lands into a huge territory that looks like a country!

Fighting terrorism and having permission from the ... legitimate government of Syria and its supporters can go a long way. Then that turkish peacekeeping force stationed there will be a strong diplomatic card against kurdish independence. Maybe they would never leave at all.

Assad could declare the kurds terrorists if things escalate more. The turks already strongly consider them terrorists, the story writes itself. And if you think there would be significant international backlash, then I say that Erdogan can promise the fall of Raqqa (which no other force can do) and he can announce the building of refugee centers for mass repatriation. These two plans will make most people shut up and rub their chin thinking.

Sorry about my hypothesizing post but I am becoming obsessed with the concept of blowing away jihadis to push your own agenda.

What a terrifying prospect. While its reasonable to believe NATO would disavow any action by Turkey in Syria it'd be too easy for something to escalate in the region. Worse Erdogan could feel he had magic NATO armor that'd keep things from getting out of hand for Turkey giving him a false sense of security to do as he felt in Syria.

Even if Turkey-Iran-Syria-Russia are on the same page, i have a hard time believing greater involvement by a NATO member woukd be favorable to

 

[STURM]

Iran has announced the formation of the ''Shia Liberation Army''. Commanded by a Pasdaran officer; the ''Shia Liberation Army'' will recruit non Iranian Shias volunteers and will be used to fight in Arab countries [I've long been curious as to how many losses Hezbollah is willing to tolerate in Syria, given that Hezbollah only has so many fighters and that it's main focus is southern Lebanon]. Iran has also admitted that it has fighters in Yemen.

Iran's 'Shia Liberation Army' is par for the course - Al Jazeera English

It's interesting to speculate whether losses suffered by Iran in Iraq and other places to date; is largely behind this latest move and how many Iranian Shias volunteers actually join this unit [we know that Afghan Hazara fighters are in Syria fighting alongside Assad]. It also remains to be seen what Saudi, Qatar and other countries will do in reaction to improved U/S./Iran ties, a possible Iran/Turkey partnership, setbacks in Yemen and Russia's use of Iranian territory to launch airstrikes. Unlike the U.S. which acknowledges that Iran has a positive role to play in defeating IS and that it makes more sense to engage Iran, given that both countries have common interests, Saudi and allies such as Qatar will no doubt continue with efforts to isolate Iran.

 

[John Fedup]

Unlike the U.S. which acknowledges that Iran has a positive role to play in defeating IS and that it makes more sense to engage Iran, given that both countries have common interests, Saudi and allies such as Qatar will no doubt continue with efforts to isolate Iran.

The situation today is similar to the pre-war Iraq-Iran counter balance assuming ISIL's eventual demise with one important difference, Saddam was more competent than the Saudi coalition.

 

[gazzzwp]

What an exciting theater. What will be the next surprise to come out of there? Maybe Erdogan will use those very serious ISIS attacks on Turkey and the danger to Syria's integrity as pretexts for a limited invasion in northern Syria. So that he can preempt the kurdish landgrab, the kurdish closing of the borders and the kurdish unification of their lands into a huge territory that looks like a country!

Apologies in advance for expressing an opinion but the military campaigns to follow will be driven by politics and in this way:

I still think that Russia will be driven in the end not by principled action against IS or to honour alliances with Syria and Iran, but whatever they can do to further blunt the US influence in the region and cause political damage to NATO by perhaps leading Turkey into some mischief. Mark my words, Russia has a hidden agenda as we will see a the next few months unfold. The US as far as I can tell is aware of all this but is remaining focused on it's primary goal.

 

[Goknub]

Something to add to the mix is Russia's desire to see the sanctions against it lifted. A Russia-Iran-Turkey-Syria partnership would ensure the tensions between the US and Russia only gets worse and a move against the Kurds would also play badly in Europe, especially in Germany where Ergodan isn't so popular. It could cement the sanctions in place until the Syrian conflict is resolved which may be years away.