War Against ISIS

[Belesarius]

Didn't realise this would arouse such tensions. Agreed that the Turks are acting provocatively towards the Greeks with illegal overflights, etc. and that this should be considered unacceptable behaviour between allies.
You are wrong to suggest Turkey-Greece is the only example of this kind of thing within NATO however. The Guardia Civil and Spanish Navy infringe on Gibraltar's territorial waters constantly; the Cod Wars saw warships deployed, shots fired, boats rammed and the deaths of sailors; An MP in the Slovak government threatened to send tanks into Budapest, etc. etc.
The original point was simply that with every participant fixated on their own national goals, both the broader effort against ISIS and a stable post-ISIS regional framework is being undermined.

Although not a fan of the direction the AKP is taking Turkey, the countries value is in it's strategic position, not it's code of behaviour, and this remains undiminished. A (relatively) stable ally in the Middle East, gatekeeper to the Black Sea, and possibly key to future efforts to open up Central Asia.
Rather than Turkeys value diminishing every day, with the rising tension between Russia and the West, and the instability in the Arab states, one could argue the opposite.

I just worry about the instability spreading to Turkey with growing evidence of blatant corruption and ties to Daesh and other no-very-nice people in the area. I know there were reports back in November that Bilial Erdogan was involved in shipping oil out of ISIS controlled territory. I mean, with the son of the President of Turkey allegedly being involved, that's pretty high up corruption, if it is true.

Anyhow,

the US and coalition allies are continuing airstrikes against Daesh positions in Iraq and Syria.

From a DOD Press Release:

SOUTHWEST ASIA, December 28, 2015 – U.S. and coalition military forces have continued to attack Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists in Syria and Iraq, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve officials reported today.

Officials reported details of the latest strikes, noting that assessments of results are based on initial reports.

Strikes in Syria

Attack and remotely piloted aircraft conducted 16 strikes in Syria:

-- Near Hasakah, two strikes struck an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed an ISIL vehicle and an ISIL building.

-- Near Raqqah, a strike struck an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed an ISIL vehicle.

-- Near Manbij, eleven strikes struck seven separate ISIL tactical units, damaged an ISIL fighting position, cratered two ISIL-used roads, and destroyed an ISIL vehicle and an ISIL vehicle bomb.

-- Near Mar'a, two strikes struck two separate ISIL tactical units and destroyed an ISIL staging area.

Strikes in Iraq

Coalition forces used rocket artillery, along with fighter, attack, bomber, and remotely piloted aircraft to conduct 21 strikes in Iraq, coordinated with and in support of the Iraqi government:

-- Near Baghdadi, a strike struck an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed an ISIL weapons cache.

-- Near Fallujah, a strike struck a large ISIL tactical unit and destroyed an ISIL building and an ISIL bunker.

-- Near Kisik, three strikes struck two separate ISIL tactical units and destroyed an ISIL fighting position and an ISIL bulldozer.

-- Near Mosul, eight strikes struck six separate ISIL tactical units and destroyed three ISIL vehicles, six ISIL fighting positons, an ISIL heavy machine gun, an ISIL checkpoint, and an ISIL tactical vehicle.

-- Near Ramadi, three strikes struck two separate ISIL tactical units, denied ISIL access to terrain, wounded 12 ISIL fighters, and destroyed seven ISIL heavy machine guns, two ISIL rocket-propelled grenade positions, an ISIL bulldozer, two ISIL buildings, an ISIL staging area and an ISIL vehicle bomb staging area.

-- Near Sinjar, a strike struck an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed an ISIL fighting position.

-- Near Sultan Abdallah, a strike struck an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed three ISIL fighting positions.

-- Near Tal Afar, three strikes struck two separate ISIL tactical units and destroyed an ISIL vehicle and an ISIL assembly area.

Task force officials define a strike as one or more kinetic events that occur in roughly the same geographic location to produce a single, sometimes cumulative, effect. Therefore, officials explained, a single aircraft delivering a single weapon against a lone ISIL vehicle is a strike, but so is multiple aircraft delivering dozens of weapons against buildings, vehicles and weapon systems in a compound, for example, having the cumulative effect of making those targets harder or impossible for ISIL to use. Accordingly, officials said, they do not report the number or type of aircraft employed in a strike, the number of munitions dropped in each strike, or the number of individual munition impact points against a target.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Iraq continues strikes using Chinese CH-4B UAVs, against ISIS.

Боевое применение БПЛРCH-4B в Ираке - Юрий ЛÑмин

ISIS continues terrorist attacks in government controlled territory in Syria, with a series of explosions in restaurants. 13 dead so far.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  ñèðèéñêîì Êàìûøëè â ðåçóëüòàòå òðåõ âçðûâîâ ïîãèáëè íå ìåíåå 13 ÷åëîâåê

Iraqi Kurds display weapons captured from ISIS.

Трофеи - Берлога Бронемедведа

In the past 3 months, appparently the French have only made 10 air strikes in Syria, focusing their main efforts against targets in Iraq. Combined they flew 365 combat sorties over Syria and Iraq, hitting 677 targets.

Скромные результаты дейÑтвий французÑких ВВС против ХаÐата - bmpd

Over 2 days between Dec 28 and 30th, Russia flew 121 sorties, striking 424 targets in Syria.

ДейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð’ÐšÐ¡ РоÑÑии в Сирии в поÑледние дни 2015 года - bmpd

 

[ngatimozart]

Saudi Arabia has broken off diplomatic relations with Iran. They have given the Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave the country. This has occurred after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was sacked by protesters, who were protesting outside the embassy after the Saudis executed the prominent Shia cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr on Saturday. This latest development is another block in the French plan of a grand alliance against Daesh.

 

[ZeonChar]

Saudi Arabia has broken off diplomatic relations with Iran. They have given the Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave the country. This has occurred after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was sacked by protesters, who were protesting outside the embassy after the Saudis executed the prominent Shia cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr on Saturday. This latest development is another block in the French plan of a grand alliance against Daesh.

Was gonna happen eventually, Saudi really provoked them by beheading those Shiite clerics. Will be interesting if Saudi tries to poster up more against Iran.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

It looks like Syria has gone from a "hot spot" to a cold spot. Anomalous cold weather in northern Syria, with heavy snow. There are already reports that this is causing problems for the rebels, because they are far more visible from the sky, and tracks remain easily visible for a long time.

СириÑ, Ñнварь 2016 - Берлога Бронемедведа

A major defeat of the Iraqi Army north of Ramadi, ISIS has apparently captured rich spoils in vehicles and equipment.

Где-то прибавитÑÑ, где то убудет... - Берлога Бронемедведа

Also Camp Speicher in Iraq was hit by 5 suicide bombers at the same time, killing at least 15, wounding another 20.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà âîåííîé áàçå â Èðàêå âçîðâàëèñü ñðàçó ïÿòü ñìåðòíèêîâ: ìèíèìóì 15 ïîãèáøèõ

Some nice photos.

An antique German cannon at war in Syria.
Russian Il-76 just arrived.
A SAA T-90 near Aleppo.
A Hind flying over a roof in Syria, with a thank you message written on it.

За ÐÑада, für unseren Präsidenten, Feuer! - Берлога Бронемедведа
Прикрытие - Берлога Бронемедведа
Just a nice pic - bmpd
Análisis Militares: Espectacular foto de un Hind en Siria

The Varyag 1144 cruiser will be replacing the Moskva, on duty near the Syrian coastline. A reminder, the Moskva has been on an air defense mission there, augmenting the S-400 and Pantsyr deployment at Hmeimeem.

Смена ÑоÑтавов 2 - Берлога Бронемедведа

Lots of photos from the sacking of the Saudi embassy. Meanwhile in Iraq 3 rockets were fired at the Saudi embassy in Baghdad.

ДемонÑтранты в Тегеране и Мешхеде подожгли поÑольÑтво и конÑульÑтво СаудовÑкой Ðравии - Юрий ЛÑмин


At the same time the Saudis are cutting defense spending by 30%. This while the war in Yemen continues with no clear end in sight.

Резкое Ñокращение оборонных раÑходов СаудовÑкойравии - bmpd

It looks like one of the new VMF transports, the Kyzyl-60, has broken down. It was seen being towed by a tug. Unsurprising, info about the bad shape of the newly acquired ships (the used cargo haulers bought for the Syrian express) had surfaced earlier.

"Кызыл-60" проходит проливы на букÑире - bmpd

Turkey is preparing a WTO complaint against Russia over the sanctions Russia passed.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ ãîòîâèò æàëîáó â ÂÒÎ íà ðîññèéñêèå ñàíêöèè

 

[PO2GRV]

Update.

It looks like Syria has gone from a "hot spot" to a cold spot. Anomalous cold weather in northern Syria, with heavy snow. There are already reports that this is causing problems for the rebels, because they are far more visible from the sky, and tracks remain easily visible for a long time.

СириÑ, Ñнварь 2016 - Берлога Бронемедведа

. . .

At the same time the Saudis are cutting defense spending by 30%. This while the war in Yemen continues with no clear end in sight.

Ð*езкое Ñокращение оборонных раÑходов СаудовÑкой Ðравии - bmpd

/

Ah so I see Russia transferred General Winter to the front

But on a serious note, Saudi Arabia is in for a bad year. The war in Yemen is going terribly by all accounts, this latest row with Iran over Al Nimr making things worse, and last I read SA expects oil prices to remain low for at least the next year or too. Even if economic needs begin to make reining in production tempting the political and idealogical needs will trump them eg keeping prices low to hurt Russian involvement and prevent Iran from getting a windfall on the oil market

All tho spells trouble for the Saudi regime, though the paranoid in me makes me suspect that SA wouldn't so drastically cut defense expenditures at a Tim like tho unless they knew something was in the works -- a commitment from someone perhaps

 

[Feanor]

Ah so I see Russia transferred General Winter to the front

That Soviet weather machine...

But on a serious note, Saudi Arabia is in for a bad year. The war in Yemen is going terribly by all accounts, this latest row with Iran over Al Nimr making things worse, and last I read SA expects oil prices to remain low for at least the next year or too. Even if economic needs begin to make reining in production tempting the political and idealogical needs will trump them eg keeping prices low to hurt Russian involvement and prevent Iran from getting a windfall on the oil market

They increased production recently. They only have themselves to blame for the oil prices. And given that the US removed their own export restriction on oil, and the Iranians are entering the market, and Russia has also increased output, even if the Saudis try to reign in the prices in 2016, it's not clear they will succeed. I really think it was a stupid and ultimately self-destructive game of them to play, given how badly they are dependent on oil income. Russia, for example, can and will diversify. It will be painful, it may cost many upper officials their posts and a few oligarchs their fortune. It may even end in a change of regime. But Russia will undoubtedly survive the low oil prices, and with a little luck, and little decent management, will come out better for it. Saudi Arabia on the other hand could face disaster, with the house of Saud falling, and ISIS gaining a new playground.

All tho spells trouble for the Saudi regime, though the paranoid in me makes me suspect that SA wouldn't so drastically cut defense expenditures at a Tim like tho unless they knew something was in the works -- a commitment from someone perhaps

They have domestic stability issues and a shrinking income. They can spend the money on their clearly less then useful military, or they can spend it on keeping their population content. I suspect that the defense spending cut reflects a priority in their upper leadership. It's significant to note that Russia, facing the same choice, made the opposite one. Defense spending continues to remain at an all time high, while healthcare, education, etc. are cut, and new ways to tax the population are being prepared.

 

[gazzzwp]

Ah so I see Russia transferred General Winter to the front

But on a serious note, Saudi Arabia is in for a bad year. The war in Yemen is going terribly by all accounts, this latest row with Iran over Al Nimr making things worse, and last I read SA expects oil prices to remain low for at least the next year or too. Even if economic needs begin to make reining in production tempting the political and idealogical needs will trump them eg keeping prices low to hurt Russian involvement and prevent Iran from getting a windfall on the oil market

All tho spells trouble for the Saudi regime, though the paranoid in me makes me suspect that SA wouldn't so drastically cut defense expenditures at a Tim like tho unless they knew something was in the works -- a commitment from someone perhaps

I know we try and avoid speculation on the forum, but I am interested in the event of a conflict between Iran and SA (joined presumably by the other Gulf States who now have thrown in their cards with SA against Iran), what part the US might play? Tempting to think that they would stand with SA. Or would they just maintain the position of honest broker and peace negotiator to avoid encouraging Russian involvement.

What are people's thoughts?

 

[Toblerone]

There is no way the US would abandon their Saudi allies. Especially with all the billions they are making, a small example:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...y-a-large-role-in-saudi-arabias-war-in-yemen/

Between October 2010 and October 2014, Washington and Riyadh reached more than $90 billion in weapons deals, according to a report published in January by the Congressional Research Service.

Not even videos of saudi-sponsored terrorists beheading americans would change the US alliances. They wouldn't even change the president's golf schedule.

Personally, I've stopped applying common logic to USA policies and just treat it as a megacorporation, like Coca Cola with the strongest military in the world.

Anyway, a future Iran with modern russian and chinese equipment would keep me awake at night if I was saudi royalty. I would have already made arrangements in some other country to retreat when a big insurgency happens because with the lack of efficiency of the saudi security forces there could be a repeat of the rise of IS. Just imagine a rebel army with the newest US military gear. Rolling around with Abraams and having Patriots smuggled and F-15s and Eurofighters defecting to Iran and getting reverse engineered. These aren't pipe dreams, these are parallels to what happened in Iraq.

 

[gazzzwp]

There is no way the US would abandon their Saudi allies. Especially with all the billions they are making, a small example:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...y-a-large-role-in-saudi-arabias-war-in-yemen/


Not even videos of saudi-sponsored terrorists beheading americans would change the US alliances. They wouldn't even change the president's golf schedule.

Personally, I've stopped applying common logic to USA policies and just treat it as a megacorporation, like Coca Cola with the strongest military in the world.

Anyway, a future Iran with modern russian and chinese equipment would keep me awake at night if I was saudi royalty. I would have already made arrangements in some other country to retreat when a big insurgency happens because with the lack of efficiency of the saudi security forces there could be a repeat of the rise of IS. Just imagine a rebel army with the newest US military gear. Rolling around with Abraams and having Patriots smuggled and F-15s and Eurofighters defecting to Iran and getting reverse engineered. These aren't pipe dreams, these are parallels to what happened in Iraq.

I'm inclined to agree with your assessment. So this could well turn out to be the perfect storm between 2 military super powers. The question is does the US have the heart for it if the situation arises?

 

[John Fedup]

I'm inclined to agree with your assessment. So this could well turn out to be the perfect storm between 2 military super powers. The question is does the US have the heart for it if the situation arises?

With the U.S. Presidential election pending, any failure by Obama to support the Saudis which results in a crisis/insurrection within SA will hand the election to the Republicans even if they select one of the leading wackos.

One can only hope that combination of superior western technology but Saudis incompetence can best inferior Russian technology but likely very superior Iranian competence.

 

[2007yellow430]

With the U.S. Presidential election pending, any failure by Obama to support the Saudis which results in a crisis/insurrection within SA will hand the election to the Republicans even if they select one of the leading wackos.

One can only hope that combination of superior western technology but Saudis incompetence can best inferior Russian technology but likely very superior Iranian competence.

Given what we've seen in Yemen, that doesn't seem too likely. All he articles that I've read seem to indicate that outright war isn't going to happen, but the side conflicts might get more attention.

 

[surpreme]

Given what we've seen in Yemen, that doesn't seem too likely. All he articles that I've read seem to indicate that outright war isn't going to happen, but the side conflicts might get more attention.

Things can get outta hand if you're not paying attention. Each SA and Iran need more time to get there Military up to pare. The Saudi has the Western Technology and equipment but not the skilled personnel and professional land forces to perform it duties. It need time to learn to coordinated it own defense force. This required that they learn to conduct there own operation from the top to the bottom. They did a operation in Yemen before but it lack coordination from RSAF and RSLF. Once the Saudis get these little problems they having out the way that when they ready for Iran. Iran needs to modernize there Armed Forces it already has a Professional Army using old equipment so it need time to modernize it forces. It's best that both parties not engaged each other at this moment. The top Generals on both militaries know this and are not trying to seek war. My personally opinion Iran will give Saudis hell right now. The Iranian mindset is that it uses a hard core approach and there morale with be high right now. If ISIS get a foothold in SA it can do damage also. The Saudis has to come up with a interior plan to avoid a overthrow from within its Royal family and the youth.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Over January 1-2nd the Syrian army continued to make minor gains, villages here and there. Most notably they've taken Najarrah, north of Kuweiris.

Over January 3-4th the SAA has made gains against the Ar-Rastan pocket, clearing a major highway. They're also pushing in Deraa province, in Sheikh Miskin where they now have 70% of the city. Finally they're continuing the northward offensive out of Najarah pushing towards Al-Bab in the village of Ayishah.

СириÑ, военное положение на 1-2 ÑÐ½Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)
Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка в Сирии 3-4 ÑÐ½Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)

Sudan and Bahrein have severed diplomatic relations with Iran, and the UAE has recalled a number of their diplomats. Saudi Arabia is also banning any of its citizens from traveling to Iran, excepting religious pilgrimages. Meanwhile in Bahrein the police opened fire on Shiite protesters, and in Saudi Arabia police were fired on in the home town of the executed cleric. Meanwhile Russia has offered to be a go-between for the Saudis and Iranians.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñóäàí âûñûëàåò èç ñòðàíû ïîñëà Èðàíà
Ð’Ñлед за СаудовÑкой Ðравией и Бахрейном, Судан разорвал Ð´Ð¸Ð¿Ð¾Ñ‚Ð½Ð¾ÑˆÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ Ð˜Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ (valuisky)
СаудовÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÐÑ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ñ€Ð²ÐµÑ‚ вÑе ÑвÑзи Ñ Ð˜Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ð¼. (glohaust)
СМИ: Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð‘Ð°Ñ…Ñ€ÐµÐ¹Ð½Ð° открыла огонь по протеÑтующим шиитам (pob_ol)
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áàõðåéí ðàçîðâàë äèïîòíîøåíèÿ ñ Èðàíîì
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â ðîäíîé äåðåâíå êàçíåííîãî øèèòñêîãî ïðîïîâåäíèêà â Ñàóäîâñêîé Àðàâèè îáñòðåëÿëè ïîëèöåéñêèõ
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ãîòîâà âûñòóïèòü ìèðîòâîðöåì â êîíôëèêòå Ñàóäîâñêîé Àðàâèè ñ Èðàíîì

The US says the warned the Saudis about executing the cleric, but place the main blame on Iran anyway.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ãîñäåïå íå çàõîòåëè áûòü ïîñðåäíèêàìè ìåæäó Ñàóäîâñêîé Àðàâèåé è Èðàíîì

The elimination of the Syrian chemical weapons arsenal is complete.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ñèðèè îôèöèàëüíî çàâåðøåí ïðîöåññ ëèêâèäàöèè àðñåíàëà õèìè÷åñêîãî îðóæèÿ

 

[Toblerone]

So the talks start at the 25th. Will we see an effort by the SAA to claim a big victory before any ceasefire? Any rebel counterattacks as a show of force? More assassinations/bombings of rebel leaders?

On another note, does anyone have any current info on the current state of the syrian airforce? It's been a while since I've seen any videos of it. And those were museum pieces just doing a circle around the airport.

EDIT:
I've been watching some videos of VBIED attacks in Syria and Iraq on https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/

and now I understand their effectiveness and the terror they must cause. In one of them the explosion was so strong that an iraqi Abrams was totally wrecked, along with several other vehicles. I mean, whole buildings just get destroyed...

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Rebels have counter-attacked in Sheikh Miskin, gaining considerable ground, and are poised to reverse the previous SAA success in that town. However so far they've failed, twice, to take the Brigade 82 HQ. In Latakia province, the SAA took Ruweisat Al-Qubayb, pushing north of Salma, from the west. The SAA also has resumed pushing towards Palmyra.

Военные дейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹Ñкой армии 5-6 ÑÐ½Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)

Lynx MRAPs were allegedly handed over to the Syrian Tiger Force by Russia. Earlier Syrian troops were seen with GAZ Tigr armored cars. Of course it's hard to know for sure whether this is the case, or whether there are some Russian personnel with them, but it does follow the pattern. A reminder, Russia has been purchasing kits of the Iveco LMV through 2015, despite the sanctions, and assembling them at two separate facilities. Iveco LMVs alongside Tigr-M armored cars have been used by Russian ground forces in Syria.

РоÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð±Ñ€Ð¾Ð½Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¼Ð°ÑˆÐ¸Ð½Ð° "РыÑÑŒ" на вооружении СирийÑкой ÐрабÑкой Ðрмии - bmpd

There's info that ISIS is trying to take control of oil ports in Libya.

Боевики ИГИЛ ÑтараютÑÑ Ð²Ð·ÑÑ‚ÑŒ под контроль нефтÑные порты Ливии (giouliata)

There's info that Russian military presence is having a significant impact on the local economy in Latakia, with local bar and restaurant owners changing inventory, and even opening cafes, to suit the Russian clientele.

Как поÑвление роÑÑийÑких войÑк в Сирии повлиÑло на малый Ð±Ð¸Ð·Ð½ÐµÑ Ð² Латакии - bmpd

The Iran-Saudi mess is heating up. Saudi Arabia bombed the Iranian embassy in Yemen, Iran has banned importation of Saudi foodstuff.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èðàí çàïðåòèë ââîç ëþáûõ ïðîäóêòîâ èç Ñàóäîâñêîé Àðàâèè

The US says ISIS has lost 30% of their oil profits as a result of air strikes.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Äîõîäû òåððîðèñòîâ "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà" îò ïðîäàæè íåôòè ñíèçèëèñü íà 30%, çàÿâèëè â ÑØÀ

Evidence of Russian cluster munitions in Syria has surfaced on Russian media. Unofficially it's been no secret that Russia uses cluster munitions, though officially Russia denies it. Which is interesting, because Russia is not a signatory to the cluster munitions ban treaty.

https://citeam.org/sputnik-rt-and-russian-mod-expose-cluster-bombs-at-hmeimim-airbase/

 

[GermanHerman]

Not directly related to the war, but I would guess this falls into "news from the homefront" category:

Germany has a mild outrage about some cases of mass sexual harassment by alledged refugees in major citys, namely cologne where aroung 1000 "north african and arabian men" were robbing, assaulting and in at least one case raping women at the central station.

Germany shocked by Cologne New Year gang assaults on women - BBC News

similar events occured at Hamburg and in a smaller form at Stuttgart central station.

In first reports police stated "nothing happened and that it was a peacfull night", only five days later first details leaked and the media started reporting. The police then stated this events had nothing to do with refugees and were crimes comitted by organized gangs of robbers and thiefs only to find itself emberassed by new leaks from police men telling the media that among those controlled by them were actualy a lot of refugees from Syria... its a mess and it will have an impact on the public opinion regarding the "moderats" in Syria

It will be hard for Germany to continue its course and slovakia for one already stated it wont take any muslim refugees in the light of the events:

Migrants crisis: Slovakia 'will only accept Christians' - BBC News

This is only peripheral to the armed conflict but it takes away the attention on Assads crueltys and puts the "moderate" and "victims" of the conflict in a bad light which makes it harder for our politicians to push for a removal of the baath party or assad...

 

[CheeZe]

Not directly related to the war, but I would guess this falls into "news from the homefront" category:

Germany has a mild outrage about some cases of mass sexual harassment by alledged refugees in major citys, namely cologne where aroung 1000 "north african and arabian men" were robbing, assaulting and in at least one case raping women at the central station.

Germany shocked by Cologne New Year gang assaults on women - BBC News

similar events occured at Hamburg and in a smaller form at Stuttgart central station.

In first reports police stated "nothing happened and that it was a peacfull night", only five days later first details leaked and the media started reporting. The police then stated this events had nothing to do with refugees and were crimes comitted by organized gangs of robbers and thiefs only to find itself emberassed by new leaks from police men telling the media that among those controlled by them were actualy a lot of refugees from Syria... its a mess and it will have an impact on the public opinion regarding the "moderats" in Syria

It will be hard for Germany to continue its course and slovakia for one already stated it wont take any muslim refugees in the light of the events:

Migrants crisis: Slovakia 'will only accept Christians' - BBC News

This is only peripheral to the armed conflict but it takes away the attention on Assads crueltys and puts the "moderate" and "victims" of the conflict in a bad light which makes it harder for our politicians to push for a removal of the baath party or assad...

I find it difficult to accept that Syrian refugees can organize themselves so effectively over multiple cities. The short and differing amounts of time as well as the challenge of making do with very little beggars some disbelief. Someone with a lot of knowledge and infrastructure planned these attacks. Refugee men may be the guys on the ground doing the criminal acts but I don't think they're also the brains behind the attacks.

I find it further difficult to accept religion as a reason for denying someone entry. Is a Christian less likely to rape someone than a Muslim? The Catholic coverups would seem to disagree with that logic. Given that many of the victims were young boys, Christianity also doesn't seem to be an impediment to child abuse.

As far as I can see, people are just latching onto the easiest scapegoat. One can certainly ask, "For a country right next to France and one so proud of its laws and rules, why wasn't security good enough to prevent this?" Why was German law enforcement so lax on a nation-wide event in the same year which saw two terror attacks on its neighbor?

My father and I visited Germany this summer where we were bullied into paying a "fine" to a Berlin train conductor without uniform, refused to give us a name, refused to say what rule we had broken, and refused to go to the police station across the road to have it explained to us because his English was so bad. For the record, we are Chinese and were holding up a map on the train when he demanded we got out so we were very clearly foreigners who didn't really know what was what. Now if that attitude is reflective of the German police force, then I think the public needs to demand an explanation from the Cologne, Hamburg and Stuttgart police why they couldn't prevent this. That they could only react to it. And if it's not, then demand that explanation twice as loud.

If anything, this police leak comes across as a way for the German police to deflect blame for their failure to protect the public away from them and towards the scapegoat.

Blaming refugees hardly solves any problem. It simply deepens the existing divisions and tensions, allowing for greater fear, hatred and misunderstanding on both sides.

 

[Feanor]

My father and I visited Germany this summer where we were bullied into paying a "fine" to a Berlin train conductor without uniform, refused to give us a name, refused to say what rule we had broken, and refused to go to the police station across the road to have it explained to us because his English was so bad. For the record, we are Chinese and were holding up a map on the train when he demanded we got out so we were very clearly foreigners who didn't really know what was what. Now if that attitude is reflective of the German police force, then I think the public needs to demand an explanation from the Cologne, Hamburg and Stuttgart police why they couldn't prevent this. That they could only react to it. And if it's not, then demand that explanation twice as loud.

It sounds like you swindled. No uniform, and refused to go to the police station sounds very suspicious.

 

[Feanor]

I find it difficult to accept that Syrian refugees can organize themselves so effectively over multiple cities. The short and differing amounts of time as well as the challenge of making do with very little beggars some disbelief. Someone with a lot of knowledge and infrastructure planned these attacks. Refugee men may be the guys on the ground doing the criminal acts but I don't think they're also the brains behind the attacks.

People with a similar background and similar culture when placed in similar, alien, circumstances, may react in identical ways. Not all of them, not even most of them, but enough that it may look like organized behavior when it's really not.

I find it further difficult to accept religion as a reason for denying someone entry. Is a Christian less likely to rape someone than a Muslim? The Catholic coverups would seem to disagree with that logic. Given that many of the victims were young boys, Christianity also doesn't seem to be an impediment to child abuse.

I'm sorry, but entering another country is not a human right. Any country can choose to deny entry to anyone, and shouldn't be blamed for doing so. Granted denying entry for religious reasons looks bad, but I'm not sure religion is the primary factor here.

Blaming refugees hardly solves any problem. It simply deepens the existing divisions and tensions, allowing for greater fear, hatred and misunderstanding on both sides.

Culture doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's not just a collection of songs, national cuisine, and funny looking dances. Culture represents patterns of thought and behavior that have a significant impact on the social and political structures that people form. These immigrants (arguably through no fault of their own) come from a society that teaches certain types of attitudes and behaviors towards women. They come from a fairly violent society (third world societies tend to be more violent, and crime is less thoroughly investigated). They come from a wartorn society. And they come in huge numbers, forming communities of people with identical or very similar backgrounds and circumstances. It should come as no surprise that they reproduce the patterns of thought and behavior that they had back in Syria, in Europe. And that the result is a bunch of "little Syrias" in Germany. This is, of course, a huge problem, because Syria is a third world hell hole. This is hardly something you want to reproduce in Europe.

If we're talking about individual responsibility in the traditional western sense, you're right the immigrants aren't really to blame. Not most of them anyway. But if you look at the root causes of these events, you can't avoid dealing with the immigrant question. You can't simply pretend that the police should have done a better job, and that's that.