War Against ISIS

[Redrighthand]

I believe what you say is accurate. However it still doesn't give anyone in the conflict moral high ground. Turkey, Syria, Russia and the US all have severely tainted principles.

The US and Russia have their search beams on each other. the Sunni and Shia factions are playing power games, so are Turkey and the Kurds....... The Saudi's seem pre-occupied with Yemen, and Israel are keeping a nervous eye on everyone.

No one is likely to come out of this smelling of roses.

Trying find morality in international politics is, sadly, a mug's game. Especially in Syria.
From a power politics viewpoint, though, Russia has played a well timed game. Knowing that the opposition to Assad was always splintered, all they had to do was wait until things either settled down (and block UN resolutions to buy that time), or get to the current situation, where IS has made Assad is the lesser of two evils in everyone else's mind. Realistically, I can't see a way forward (for the general populace) that doesn't include the current regime taking back Syria. Also, I can't see Russia supporting any regime change later, although that desperately needs to happen if Syria isn't going to fall into this chaos again in the future.

Also, I don't believe that the Saudi's are ignoring the situation, as they're basically the funding base for IS in the first place (or factions in Saudi Arabia are, at any rate).

 

[Feanor]

The Syrians lost Mahin again. This is a setback, and means they will have to redirect troops from Palmyra to retake it.

 

[gazzzwp]

US claims that Assad regime is a major buyer of ISIL oil.

Several medias reporting this.

Russia must have been aware of this yet only focused on blaming Turkey. Here is one report.

Syria's Assad buying 'a great deal' of ISIS oil, US official says | Fox News

 

[ngatimozart]

US claims that Assad regime is a major buyer of ISIL oil.

Several medias reporting this.

Russia must have been aware of this yet only focused on blaming Turkey. Here is one report.

Syria's Assad buying 'a great deal' of ISIS oil, US official says | Fox News

Can you please supply other media sources then. Fox News is the US equivalent of Russia's RT.

 

[swerve]

Also, I don't believe that the Saudi's are ignoring the situation, as they're basically the funding base for IS in the first place (or factions in Saudi Arabia are, at any rate).

All the published estimates of Daesh funding contradict that. The exact proportions vary, but they all agree that its sources of money are -
(1) taxation, looting, & extortion from the population in the territory it controls.
(2) selling oil from wells it controls
(3) a collection of relatively minor sources, such as sales of antiquities, ransoms, & donations.

That puts funding by Saudis as one of a group of sources which collectively make up maybe 10-20% of its total income. That's not exactly "the funding base". Its total income is assessed as a hell of a lot for a terrorist group, but small change for such as the Saudi state, hundreds of millions of USD.

 

[Feanor]

Can you please supply other media sources then. Fox News is the US equivalent of Russia's RT.

I second your request, but in this case the info is solid. Granted the solid part is that the US did indeed make the statement. The accuracy of the statement itself clearly is a separate issue.

All the published estimates of Daesh funding contradict that. The exact proportions vary, but they all agree that its sources of money are -
(1) taxation, looting, & extortion from the population in the territory it controls.
(2) selling oil from wells it controls
(3) a collection of relatively minor sources, such as sales of antiquities, ransoms, & donations.

That puts funding by Saudis as one of a group of sources which collectively make up maybe 10-20% of its total income. That's not exactly "the funding base". Its total income is assessed as a hell of a lot for a terrorist group, but small change for such as the Saudi state, hundreds of millions of USD.

Do we have enough information to assume that they're involved on a state level? As in either the government is doing it, or the higher ups are aware of it? Or is it just conjecture? The latter seems unlikely given reports of Saudi military officers among the rebels.

 

[gazzzwp]

Can you please supply other media sources then. Fox News is the US equivalent of Russia's RT.

Lots of sources:

U.S. Says Syria Is Buying Oil From Islamic State - WSJ

Is Syria Buying Oil From ISIS? US Sanctions Syrian Businessman For Acting As 'Middleman' In Transactions

 

[Ranger25]

If need be, they can re-route all their planes and equipment via Iraq to Iran, then back over the Caspian. Though, I think Russia would consider it an actor of war if anything were to happen, where their supplies are cut like that. They've made that clear.

This would be a huge increase in expenses. There are beginning it be reports questioning their capability to sustain this pace. From logistics, to dwindling supplies of PGMs(and Kalibre).

In a pipe dream world, this could be an opportunity For they US/NATO and Russia to set aside their differences and unit against a common enemy.

Egos aside, this would be a good thing. IMO the sad part is I think VPP would be agreeable to this as he also see growing radical Islamist as a national security threat but the US president is too busy golfing and lacks the decisiveness to act and lead

 

[Feanor]

This would be a huge increase in expenses. There are beginning it be reports questioning the capabi,I ties to sustain this pace. From logistics, to dwindling supplies of PGMs(and Kalibre).

In a pipe dream world, this could be an opportunity For they US/NATO and Russia to set aside their differences and unit against a common enemy.

Egos aside, this would be a good thing. IMO the sad part is I think VPP would be agreeable to this as he also see growing radical Islamist as a national security threat but the US president is too busy golfing and lacks the decisiveness to act and lead

US Presidents aren't busy golfing, they're busy advancing US interests. And those don't include a powerful Russia with an independent foreign policy, playing a major role in flirting with Middle Eastern regimes.

As for the Kalibr missiles, they're being actively manufactured. Given the relatively small quantities actually launched over this entire time (less then 50 missiles) it shouldn't be that hard or costly to replace. But the operation as a whole is getting pricey. It might be the reason why, despite rumors and what looked like some prep work, no additional aircraft have been deployed. Even the publicly stated intent to deploy additional fighters to provide cover for the strikes never happened.

 

[Twain]

US Presidents aren't busy golfing, they're busy advancing US interests. And those don't include a powerful Russia with an independent foreign policy, playing a major role in flirting with Middle Eastern regimes.

As for the Kalibr missiles, they're being actively manufactured. Given the relatively small quantities actually launched over this entire time (less then 50 missiles) it shouldn't be that hard or costly to replace. But the operation as a whole is getting pricey. It might be the reason why, despite rumors and what looked like some prep work, no additional aircraft have been deployed. Even the publicly stated intent to deploy additional fighters to provide cover for the strikes never happened.

Are there any current estimates of the amount it is is costing Russia per day? Earlier in the thread the estimate was $4 million a day IIRC, it's obviously exceeding that by a considerable margin now.

 

[Nick underscore]

Last figures pubically stated, was the amount you mentioned (~$4mio). That was Oct 20th.

The Economist's Intelligence Unit, provided an article towards the end of that month. Russia's low-cost Syria campaign

Some figures for the US anti-ISIS involvement alone is x2.5 the RF daily estimate. In isolation I think RF is getting value for money, excluding political capital, but looking at the macroeconomic impact on the annual RF military budget, it looks less attractive IMV. (2-4%, which will be higher band, since events have developed recently)

 

[swerve]

Do we have enough information to assume that they're involved on a state level? As in either the government is doing it, or the higher ups are aware of it? Or is it just conjecture? The latter seems unlikely given reports of Saudi military officers among the rebels.

I didn't mean to suggest Saudi state involvement. I have no knowledge of any such involvement. I was merely trying to give some perspective to the amount of money.

If the published estimates of Daesh income are anywhere near right, it seems much too poor to be funded by the Saudi state. Why bother giving sums too small to make any difference to Daesh, when it could pay for the whole thing, & more, without strain? The sums mentioned are such that any Saudi share could easily be accounted for by private money. There are quite a few Saudi individuals & families who could each provide all the money Daesh is thought to get from donations, but it's known that donations come from many sources.

I know nothing of reports of Saudi officers. Can you point me to some?

 

[Feanor]

Are there any current estimates of the amount it is is costing Russia per day? Earlier in the thread the estimate was $4 million a day IIRC, it's obviously exceeding that by a considerable margin now.

8 mil/day is the last estimate I saw, but I don't recall the source.

 

[Feanor]

I didn't mean to suggest Saudi state involvement. I have no knowledge of any such involvement. I was merely trying to give some perspective to the amount of money.

If the published estimates of Daesh income are anywhere near right, it seems much too poor to be funded by the Saudi state. Why bother giving sums too small to make any difference to Daesh, when it could pay for the whole thing, & more, without strain? The sums mentioned are such that any Saudi share could easily be accounted for by private money. There are quite a few Saudi individuals & families who could each provide all the money Daesh is thought to get from donations, but it's known that donations come from many sources.

I know nothing of reports of Saudi officers. Can you point me to some?

It was posted by sokol-ff on his livejournal blog, and it was photos of Saudi documents found on dead rebels. I'm trying to find it right now, but he doesn't do a good job of putting tags on the posts, so it involves a lot of scrolling.

EDIT: Here it is. Two posts, one dealing with Iraq the other with Syria.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/1078250.html
http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/1092029.html

 

[gazzzwp]

US Presidents aren't busy golfing, they're busy advancing US interests. And those don't include a powerful Russia with an independent foreign policy, playing a major role in flirting with Middle Eastern regimes.

As for the Kalibr missiles, they're being actively manufactured. Given the relatively small quantities actually launched over this entire time (less then 50 missiles) it shouldn't be that hard or costly to replace. But the operation as a whole is getting pricey. It might be the reason why, despite rumors and what looked like some prep work, no additional aircraft have been deployed. Even the publicly stated intent to deploy additional fighters to provide cover for the strikes never happened.

Just another point on that. Oil is rapidly heading for $30 a barrel. What this is doing to Russian finances is anyone's guess. The Rouble is also very low against the dollar right now.

 

[ZeonChar]

Just another point on that. Oil is rapidly heading for $30 a barrel. What this is doing to Russian finances is anyone's guess. The Rouble is also very low against the dollar right now.

Oil will not stay that low forever, and when the next big price increase happens, it'll be huge. It's just a waiting game. This also effects the U.S. market.

Why Saudi Arabia won't cut oil production - Aug. 28, 2015
Saudi Arabia's Oil War With Russia - Bloomberg View

 

[gazzzwp]

Oil will not stay that low forever, and when the next big price increase happens, it'll be huge. It's just a waiting game. This also effects the U.S. market.

Why Saudi Arabia won't cut oil production - Aug. 28, 2015
Saudi Arabia's Oil War With Russia - Bloomberg View

Good articles. I doubt seriously that the US economy will suffer from low oil price. It's economy is very balanced and currently in it's best shape for a decade. It will however deeply affect Russia.

 

[2007yellow430]

Good articles. I doubt seriously that the US economy will suffer from low oil price. It's economy is very balanced and currently in it's best shape for a decade. It will however deeply affect Russia.

The USA's economy for the most part will benefit significantly from the low price. Texas, and the South where a lot of the oil is produced will suffer big time. The boom they had will be gone, but when the prices increase, they will recover. The rest of us will get huge benefits from $30 oil. A while back a friend in the oil business told me to watch for $35 oil, and he believed that would be the floor. Time will tell. He's been right more often than not.

 

[Humming Drone]

8 mil/day is the last estimate I saw, but I don't recall the source.

8 mil/day is the Bloomberg estimate.

Putin's Quagmire in Syria Proves Obama Prescient - Bloomberg Business

 

[SolarWind]

I think the points you raise are highly debatable. To hold Russia up as a pinnacle of morality after the destruction of part of the Ukraine, seizing a sovereign territory without wider negotiations, throwing weight behind a Syrian dictator who is widely believed to be a war criminal, isn't really very convincing in terms of wisdom.

Further Putin's reasons for entering the Syrian conflict have been very deceptive and more to do with poking the US in the eye rather than propping up an old ally.

A sense of balance here is very important. All sides need to adopt better principled action imho.

Though Russia is definitely not a pinnacle of morality, it is so far acting as a rational player in recent events, which can hardly be said about the west.