Do we have independent confirmation that they're deploying to strengthen Turkey? I haven't seen this in other news.
War Against ISIS
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gazzzwp
Member
I think the points you raise are highly debatable. To hold Russia up as a pinnacle of morality after the destruction of part of the Ukraine, seizing a sovereign territory without wider negotiations, throwing weight behind a Syrian dictator who is widely believed to be a war criminal, isn't really very convincing in terms of wisdom.
Further Putin's reasons for entering the Syrian conflict have been very deceptive and more to do with poking the US in the eye rather than propping up an old ally.
A sense of balance here is very important. All sides need to adopt better principled action imho.
gazzzwp
Member
There are dozens of articles; just google NATO strengthening Turkish defenses.
t68
Well-Known Member
Apprantly so, got to admit its the first one I have seen but I did as you suggested and found it. Just been lurking in this thread very informative much appreciated with special thanks to Feanor.
NATO allies approve measures to boost Turkish security | IHS Jane's 360
Interesting, and potentially problematic. I wonder what the logic is. As is, Russia clearly has little interest in a direct military confrontation with Turkey. Given that the entire supply chain for Hmeimeem runs through the straits, they'd be in serious trouble if Turkey shut it down. They'd have to run ships all the way around Europe, from the Baltic.
The USAF F15Cs at Incirlik are unable to defend Turkish airspace because they have not been cleared to operate in an air defence role within Turkey. The Turkish shoot down of the Russian Su24 has changed the situation and apparently negotiations are underway for an agreement, ROE and correct procedures.
Update.
There are some reports that a T-90 tank was destroyed in Syria, but the evidence is very flimsy. See for yourself.
Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии уничтожен Т-90? Ðе факт, гоÑпода, не факт!
Another Kalibr strike, this time from a 636.6 sub, the Rostov-na-Donu. 4 Kalibr missiles, likely the entire arsenal it carries.
Удар "Калибрами" Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð»Ð¾Ð´ÐºÐ¸ - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
ПуÑк крылатых ракет Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð²Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ лодки "РоÑтов-на-Дону" по объектам террориÑтов в Сирии - bmpd
Russian aircraft have flown, over the past 3 days, over 300 sorties striking over 600 targets, and Tu-22M3s are back in action, dropping dumb bombs.
ÐÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð°ÐºÑ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð´ÐµÐ¹Ñтвий ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd
The flight recorder from the Russian Su-24M has been found.
Оранжевый и квадратный - Берлога Бронемедведа
There are sources indicating that the number of Russian citizens fighting for ISIS has tripled, while the number of foreigners in general has doubled, according to Soufan group.
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ýêñïåðòû: ÷èñëî ñðàæàþùèõñÿ çà "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" ðîññèÿí óâåëè÷èëîñü â òðè ðàçà
Russia is equipping Syrian T-72s with ERA, including some T-72s upgraded under the TURMS-T program by Italy.
Gur Khan attacks!: СирийÑкие военные "одели" в роÑÑийÑкую динамичеÑкую защиту "Контакт" Т-72, модернизированные Италией
Russian MoD says they do not intend to open additional bases in Syria. And while it's possible to write off previous news as rumors and media hype, we already know that An-124s have delivered cargo to Sha'aryat, and Russian helos use that base. Given that, despite earlier claiming they intend to rebase additional fighter jets to Hmeimeem, they still haven't the question becomes, why the sudden change of mind? It's possible, in my opinion, that upon saner analysis, they realized their logistics can't support it.
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ìèíîáîðîíû îáúÿâèëè, ÷òî íå íàìåðåíû ðàçâîðà÷èâàòü äîïîëíèòåëüíûå àâèàáàçû â Ñèðèè
There are some reports that a T-90 tank was destroyed in Syria, but the evidence is very flimsy. See for yourself.
Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии уничтожен Т-90? Ðе факт, гоÑпода, не факт!
Another Kalibr strike, this time from a 636.6 sub, the Rostov-na-Donu. 4 Kalibr missiles, likely the entire arsenal it carries.
Удар "Калибрами" Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð»Ð¾Ð´ÐºÐ¸ - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
ПуÑк крылатых ракет Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð²Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ лодки "РоÑтов-на-Дону" по объектам террориÑтов в Сирии - bmpd
Russian aircraft have flown, over the past 3 days, over 300 sorties striking over 600 targets, and Tu-22M3s are back in action, dropping dumb bombs.
ÐÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð°ÐºÑ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð¸Ð·Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð´ÐµÐ¹Ñтвий ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd
The flight recorder from the Russian Su-24M has been found.
Оранжевый и квадратный - Берлога Бронемедведа
There are sources indicating that the number of Russian citizens fighting for ISIS has tripled, while the number of foreigners in general has doubled, according to Soufan group.
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ýêñïåðòû: ÷èñëî ñðàæàþùèõñÿ çà "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" ðîññèÿí óâåëè÷èëîñü â òðè ðàçà
Russia is equipping Syrian T-72s with ERA, including some T-72s upgraded under the TURMS-T program by Italy.
Gur Khan attacks!: СирийÑкие военные "одели" в роÑÑийÑкую динамичеÑкую защиту "Контакт" Т-72, модернизированные Италией
Russian MoD says they do not intend to open additional bases in Syria. And while it's possible to write off previous news as rumors and media hype, we already know that An-124s have delivered cargo to Sha'aryat, and Russian helos use that base. Given that, despite earlier claiming they intend to rebase additional fighter jets to Hmeimeem, they still haven't the question becomes, why the sudden change of mind? It's possible, in my opinion, that upon saner analysis, they realized their logistics can't support it.
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ìèíîáîðîíû îáúÿâèëè, ÷òî íå íàìåðåíû ðàçâîðà÷èâàòü äîïîëíèòåëüíûå àâèàáàçû â Ñèðèè
I've never been able to distinguish between russian tanks, they look so much alike. At least I understand that the first tank suffered an ammorack explosion and the second got hit at the thickest armor and survived. But at least one crew member panicked. The tank seems to not be incapacitated though.
Russia supporting Assad is in my opinion better for global stability than NATO supporting Erdogan. NATO or the whole world may pay a heavy toll for his antics.
When I said the decisions are correct, I meant in terms of their policy and general stability, not in terms of morality.
Russia supporting Assad is in my opinion better for global stability than NATO supporting Erdogan. NATO or the whole world may pay a heavy toll for his antics.
the concerned
Active Member
Hi I've been trying to find out where is the nearest Iraqi airbase to the Syrian border and how far is it. Could it be possible to set up a coalition base that's like a massive gunship spec-ops hub to conduct operations along both borders.
gazzzwp
Member
Agreed that both sides have skeletons in the cupboard. The only point I would add to my argument against Russia is that they are not predominantly targeting the extremists. Another example of being there under false pretenses. Reasons are everything.
The major concern I believe is that we are potentially only a short distance away from a direct Russian/NATO exchange.
Look at RT today. Putin saying that he doesn't think nuclear weapons will be needed to deal with ISIL. Why even mention NW's? More grief about the downing of the Jet, and more condemnation of alleged coalition action against Syria forces.
Putin looks like he is sending subtle warning messages.
We've talked about this before. Who there do you not consider an extremist?
Not so subtly. The entire cruise missile display is not dictated by military necessity. It's a message to other politicians that Russia has the capability. Nuclear Kalibr missiles makes every single 636 Kilo sub a strategic asset. I'd also not sure where they stand with regards to START. They clearly have strategic range, and strategic implications when armed with a nuclear payload. But nowhere in START do you see VMF assets, outside the SLBM sub fleet. There is, at this point very little difference between a Tu-160 carrying Kh-55s or Kh-101s and a Buyan-M small missile ship carrying Kalibr-NK.
The best outcome in Syria IMO is for the Assad coalition to consolidate its hold in as much of Syria as possible, so with some concessions and removal of Assad there can be a New Syria after a partition away from the eastern part with the more hardcore sunnis. Maybe a naive plan. I don't care about supposedly moderate rebel factions.
I mentioned nuclear weapons in my post in the previous page after learning about several NATO countries fortifying Turkey. Because there is a lack of balance and an attempt at "bullying" Russia by a US-controlled alliance that works like a pyramid scheme, the ones down below get screwed, like Greece all these decades against their NATO "ally", Turkey.
I guess that's why Putin resorts to thinly veiled nuclear threats. Because if another big provocation happens, another hostile action ... then he will have to act militarily. And he doesn't want that. I believe he is reaching his endgame, while the other actors are fumbling about. He wants "cooperation", meaning non-interference, some other actors want to throw a spanner in the works because their interests are in danger, not worrying about the consequences because they have the backs of others.
gazzzwp
Member
I believe what you say is accurate. However it still doesn't give anyone in the conflict moral high ground. Turkey, Syria, Russia and the US all have severely tainted principles.
The US and Russia have their search beams on each other. the Sunni and Shia factions are playing power games, so are Turkey and the Kurds....... The Saudi's seem pre-occupied with Yemen, and Israel are keeping a nervous eye on everyone.
No one is likely to come out of this smelling of roses.
surpreme
Member
good point there I'm give Russia credit they kept on Syria side for years and brought in forces to help them. Syrian Military is on thin ice thanks to Russia they are on solid ground again. Have the CIA try to get in touch with Brig General Issam Zahreddine commander of the 104th (Airborne) Republician Guards Brigade? He's a great general who is on the front line with his soldiers in Deir al-Zoor Air Base. He be a great help to the FSA. ISIS is hiding there forces now that they have lot of airstrikes on them. It hard to operate having to look up at the skies all the time. They regrouping as we speak with ex-Iraqi soldiers and foreign help. I would like to know what intelligence service is working with them? They seem to have good intel or do they have the Iraqi help in working against airstrikes. The ex Iraqi soldiers have lot of experiences against airstrikes since the 90's and then again in 2003 to present.
Here the prove I was looking for about Gen. Zahreddine if they try to get in touch with him to overthrow Assad or switch sides
.S. held secret communications with Syrian government: WSJ
December 24, 2015
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. officials held secret communications with members of President Bashar al-Assad's government to try to limit violence in Syria, and explored ways to encourage a military coup in 2011 as the civil war got under way, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
American intelligence officials identified army officers belonging to Assad's minority Alawite sect who could lead a coup, but they found few weak spots to exploit, the Journal said, citing interviews with more than two dozen people, including current and former U.S. officials.
The moves were made as Assad's government began cracking down on protests and soldiers started leaving the army, the Journal said,
"The White House's policy in 2011 was to get to the point of a transition in Syria by finding cracks in the regime and offering incentives for people to abandon Assad," a former senior administration official was quoted as saying.
The Obama administration shifted away from trying to influence Assad's government and toward supporting Syrian rebels in 2012, the newspaper reported.
Senior officials from the United States and Syria spoke directly to each other or sent messages through third parties, including Syrian allies Russia and Iran, the newspaper said.
Deputy Secretary of State William Burns made two phone calls to Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Moallem to warn the Assad regime against using chemical weapons on a large scale, U.S. officials told the newspaper. Burns retired last year.
One senior U.S. official said the secret communications were unlike those held with Cuba or Iran, in which the United States thought it could quietly resolve issues, but were more focused on specifics.
"We have had times where we've said: 'You could create a better environment for cease-fires if you stop dropping barrel bombs,'" a senior U.S. official told the Journal.
(Writing by Doina Chiacu; Editing by Alistair Bell)
View Comments (124)
U.S..
here video of the General
https://youtu.be/ow6d7e4od3k
Last edited:
If there were to be direct miltary confrontation between turkey and russia, defensive or offensive on Turkey's part, I would think that russian ships being able to transit the strait of gibraltar would be problematic too. Even if Turkey initiated the hostilities, I would guess that NATO would be rather hostile to Russia, especially after crimea and eastern ukraine and the aggressive stance Russia is taking in the Baltic. In short, under those circumstances, I'm not sure Russia would have a reliable way to get supplies to Syria by any route.
By ship across Caspian Sea to Iran then by road across Iran through Iraq to Syria if they are able to negotiate agreements with Iran and Iraq. Pain in the rectum but a lot easier than having to negotiate Straits of Gibralter or the Horn which is the real long way around from Murmansk. The Baltic could be an issue for the Russians as well if they have a bun fight with Turkey and it is Turkey who was the aggressor, that's why I chose Murmansk as the debarkation port.
If need be, they can re-route all their planes and equipment via Iraq to Iran, then back over the Caspian. Though, I think Russia would consider it an actor of war if anything were to happen, where their supplies are cut like that. They've made that clear.
There is no safe land route from Baghdad to Damascus. That route is effectively closed, because of where ISIS is located. The best you could do is, with much trouble, reach Syrian Kurdistan.
Update.
Turkey violated Iraqi airspace, and bombed PKK positions on Iraqi soil. This right after they stated that their trainers entered Iraq by the request of the Iraqi government. Iraqi officials stated that they reserve the right to request Russian military assistance to deal with Turkish incursions.
And apparently the Turkish contingent in Iraq is actually 900 strong. Also, despite protests from Baghdad, it appears that Turkey has no intention of withdrawing them.
Personal comment: The cat is behind the curtain, but the tail is sticking out.
Воюют вÑе против вÑех - Берлога Бронемедведа
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ýðäîãàí îáúÿâèë, ÷òî âîéñêà Òóðöèè âîøëè â Èðàê ïî ïðîñüáå âëàñòåé
On Dec 9th Russia flew 82 sorties striking 204 targets.
They also stated that all their sorties are coordinated with Syrian air control, and they have proof that they had no jets in the sky over Deyr-ez-Zor on the day the Syrian camp was struck. And that they had received notification that the US was bombing targets in that area, 55 kms away, and that two other coalition aircraft were in the area, but Russia was not notified of their presence as per the memorandum.
The second link is some video of recent Russian Tu-22M3 bombings, and the Kalibr strike from the Rostov-na-Donu.
ДейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð’ÐšÐ¡ РоÑÑии в Сирии 9 Ð´ÐµÐºÐ°Ð±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd
Ковровые бомбардировки Ту-22Ðœ + удар ÐšÐ Ñ ÐŸÐ› РнД по бандитам ИГИЛ - Блокнот военного милитариÑта
French sources report that Iran has over 2000 Revolutionary Guard in Syria today. In October-November they lost 67 KIA according to the IRNA.
rsonal comment: Those are rather large figures. There has been information that they've been the tip of the spear in the SAA offensive south-west of Aleppo.
ЛюдÑкие потери воинÑкого контингента Ирана в Сирии раÑтут - bmpd
Turkey violated Iraqi airspace, and bombed PKK positions on Iraqi soil. This right after they stated that their trainers entered Iraq by the request of the Iraqi government. Iraqi officials stated that they reserve the right to request Russian military assistance to deal with Turkish incursions.
And apparently the Turkish contingent in Iraq is actually 900 strong. Also, despite protests from Baghdad, it appears that Turkey has no intention of withdrawing them.
Personal comment: The cat is behind the curtain, but the tail is sticking out.
Воюют вÑе против вÑех - Берлога Бронемедведа
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ýðäîãàí îáúÿâèë, ÷òî âîéñêà Òóðöèè âîøëè â Èðàê ïî ïðîñüáå âëàñòåé
On Dec 9th Russia flew 82 sorties striking 204 targets.
They also stated that all their sorties are coordinated with Syrian air control, and they have proof that they had no jets in the sky over Deyr-ez-Zor on the day the Syrian camp was struck. And that they had received notification that the US was bombing targets in that area, 55 kms away, and that two other coalition aircraft were in the area, but Russia was not notified of their presence as per the memorandum.
The second link is some video of recent Russian Tu-22M3 bombings, and the Kalibr strike from the Rostov-na-Donu.
ДейÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð’ÐšÐ¡ РоÑÑии в Сирии 9 Ð´ÐµÐºÐ°Ð±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd
Ковровые бомбардировки Ту-22Ðœ + удар ÐšÐ Ñ ÐŸÐ› РнД по бандитам ИГИЛ - Блокнот военного милитариÑта
French sources report that Iran has over 2000 Revolutionary Guard in Syria today. In October-November they lost 67 KIA according to the IRNA.
rsonal comment: Those are rather large figures. There has been information that they've been the tip of the spear in the SAA offensive south-west of Aleppo.
ЛюдÑкие потери воинÑкого контингента Ирана в Сирии раÑтут - bmpd
True, but that is already one of the premises of this hypothetical discussion, that turkey is effectively if not officially at war with russia. The question was, if direct military conflict broke out between turkey and russia, what would be the ramifications for russia. What was presented is one of the potential ramifications.