War Against ISIS

[gazzzwp]

Russia to deploy missile cruiser close to border:

Russian guided missile cruiser Moskva, equipped with the ‘Fort’ air defense system, similar to the S-300, will be deployed off Latakia province's coast.

https://www.rt.com/news/323329-russia-suspend-military-turkey/

 

[Nick underscore]

Russia to deploy missile cruiser close to border:

Russian guided missile cruiser Moskva, equipped with the ‘Fort’ air defense system, similar to the S-300, will be deployed off Latakia province's coast.

https://www.rt.com/news/323329-russia-suspend-military-turkey/

Moskva and her group have already been in the AO, for some time. All strike packages will also being using fighter cover, going forward. I assume (maybe incorrectly) this means an increase on deployed air assets to Syria.

I'm more interested in hearing the movement/deployment of Kuznetsov - if it happens.

 

[Ranger25]

Moskva and her group have already been in the AO, for some time. All strike packages will also being using fighter cover, going forward. I assume (maybe incorrectly) this means an increase on deployed air assets to Syria.

I'm more interested in hearing the movement/deployment of Kuznetsov - if it happens.

There have been rumors about the Kuznetsov for some time but nothing confirmed yet I've seen. But heading out for sea trials. Who knows, sea trials could take her to the Eastern Med

 

[John Fedup]

Whatever you think of Russia's involvement in Syria, you can't possibly be dense enough to think that the reaction from Russia to this incident will be anything but outrage and retaliation. The only question is what form it will take. It hasn't been 24 hours, and they're already rapidly shutting down tourist ties with Turkey, a place where they can financially hit them hard at relatively low cost. I'm fairly confident that they will not stop supporting the Syrian offensive towards the Turkish border, and I think it's likely they will only intensify strikes there, be it by air, or switching to missile and tube artillery. Especially after the Turks "relatives" Turkmen killed both pilots. In this case Turkey's bite will end up costing them. The only question is how much will it cost them, and how much Russia is willing to pay or lose in the process.

Agreed. IMO Turkey has not been our friend except for accepting refugees. Given the other crap they have been involved with e.g. Bombing the only effective ground force against ISIS (the Kurds), Turkey is a NATO liability.

 

[gazzzwp]

Whatever you think of Russia's involvement in Syria, you can't possibly be dense enough to think that the reaction from Russia to this incident will be anything but outrage and retaliation. The only question is what form it will take. It hasn't been 24 hours, and they're already rapidly shutting down tourist ties with Turkey, a place where they can financially hit them hard at relatively low cost. I'm fairly confident that they will not stop supporting the Syrian offensive towards the Turkish border, and I think it's likely they will only intensify strikes there, be it by air, or switching to missile and tube artillery. Especially after the Turks "relatives" Turkmen killed both pilots. In this case Turkey's bite will end up costing them. The only question is how much will it cost them, and how much Russia is willing to pay or lose in the process.

Agreed. IMO Turkey has not been our friend except for accepting refugees. Given the other crap they have been involved with e.g. Bombing the only effective ground force against ISIS (the Kurds), Turkey is a NATO liability.

At least they have the guts to act though. Remember it's their border that was being violated. Would the UK have stood for that? Agreed about the Kurds though. It only serves to highlight that the sheer number of factions involved makes the whole question of alliances tricky.

 

[2007yellow430]

If you look at the map of where they allegedly violated Turkey's airspace, you can see it's a little intrusion into Syria. Couldn't be more than 2-3 miles wide. Assuming they were going say 400 mph, they couldn't have been in Turkey's airspace for less than a minute. Indeed, the wreckage ended up in Syria, several Km into Syria. It may be probable that the plane was in Syria when shot down.

Art

 

[ngatimozart]

At least they have the guts to act though. Remember it's their border that was being violated. Would the UK have stood for that? Agreed about the Kurds though. It only serves to highlight that the sheer number of factions involved makes the whole question of alliances tricky.

There are ways of doing things and there are ways of doing things. If the Su24 was well inside Turkish airspace fair enough, but if the poor bugger drifted over the border by a kilometre is that justification for a shoot down? Did they fire warning rounds first? F16 do carry cannon. Or did they just go straight to the shoot down after a radio call wasn't answered? The Turks do have the Wedgetail so that's the next question, was one of those operating nearby at the time?

 

[ZeonChar]

If you look at the map of where they allegedly violated Turkey's airspace, you can see it's a little intrusion into Syria. Couldn't be more than 2-3 miles wide. Assuming they were going say 400 mph, they couldn't have been in Turkey's airspace for less than a minute. Indeed, the wreckage ended up in Syria, several Km into Syria. It may be probable that the plane was in Syria when shot down.

Art

Yeah, that and coupled with the fact that Turkmen shot the pilots on the ground, and a ToW missile shot and caused a further casualty in the rescue attempt. I'm glad Russia hasn't responded too harshly as of yet, but that remains to be seen. Dangerous waters are being treaded on here. Obama's press conference comments does not help, and baffles me. Hollande, luckily didn't take so much of a tone.

 

[gf0012-aust]

without wanting to sound like anyones "dad" I'd suggest some real constraint be exercised in here on theories.

the situation is murky and some of the claims made in the media are just abject nonsense.

I'd hate to see the thread degenerate into how some of the other forums and blogs are progressing where its turning into a "mutt and jeff" quality level of debate

 

[2007yellow430]

without wanting to sound like anyones "dad" I'd suggest some real constraint be exercised in here on theories.

the situation is murky and some of the claims made in the media are just abject nonsense.

I'd hate to see the thread degenerate into how some of the other forums and blogs are progressing where its turning into a "mutt and jeff" quality of debate

If you were referring to me, I'll refrain.

Art

 

[gf0012-aust]

If you were referring to me, I'll refrain.

Art

Not at all

Don't take things personally

 

[gf0012-aust]

unsubstantiated:

The Aviationist » Here’s the alleged Audio of the Turkish Air Force warning the Russian Su-24 before downing it

for me, I'd like to see an unmolested image (as much as possible) from the equiv CAOC/AOC

 

[Feanor]

There have been rumors about the Kuznetsov for some time but. Itching confirmed yet I've seen. But heading out for sea trials. Who knows, sea trials could take her to the Eastern Med

There is info that the Kuznetsov is headed on a combat deployment. That sounds like Syria.

 

[ZeonChar]

The Russian MI-8 downed helicopter rescue crew has been rescued by SAA Special Forces, in an operation behind enemy lines.

 

[gf0012-aust]

apparently the SU-24 was inside turkish air space for a total of 17 seconds

someone was quick on the trigger and it would also indicate local authority

 

[StingrayOZ]

apparently the SU-24 was inside turkish air space for a total of 17 seconds

someone was quick on the trigger and it would also indicate local authority

Im suprised it was that long. How long would it take for the missile to cover the distance?

 

[barney41]

apparently the SU-24 was inside turkish air space for a total of 17 seconds

someone was quick on the trigger and it would also indicate local authority

Which is at odds wih Turkish claims of 10 radioed warnings over a 5-minute. If that path analysis graphic they releaseď is correct, anyone know how many miles across is that finger of land the Sukhoi flew over?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Im suprised it was that long. How long would it take for the missile to cover the distance?

not long - but the AOC-OP/TMS provided has been gutted of all the little bits that make it useful under STANAG 2525B and 2525C

 

[gf0012-aust]

Which is at odds wih Turkish claims of 10 radioed warnings over a 5-minute. If that path analysis graphic they releaseď is correct, anyone know how many miles across is that finger of land the Sukhoi flew over?

the warning is issued about a vector path problem and if path maintained that you will breach airspace - it's not necessarily when inside their airspace. so the warnings start coming when you enter a designated range ring

so in theory they could have been broadcasting when in syrian space and that the racetracks if maintained could result in a breach.

however, the AOC data is almost meaningless as its been sanitised - and you then need to syncronise the voice recordings with the TMS to get an appreciation of what is happening in real time.

gutted TMS and orphan voice recordings don't help in giving comfort to the merits of the course of action taken prior to authority for pilots to freefire

 

[Todjaeger]

One of the other things to keep in mind is that Turkey has recently become more strict/responsive to airspace intrusions, prior to the RuAF bombing campaign.

IIRC Turkey downed a drone of unknown origin (or at least not publically acknowledged or identified) over Turkish airspace in mid-October, as well as a Syrian UAV that was 11km over the border into Turkey back in May.

Also, following the 2012 downing of a Turkish RF-4E by a Syrian AF fighter, Turkey changed the ROE for incursions from Syrian airspace into Turkish airspace.

IMO time might tell in terms of what actually happened, as well as the sequence of events. OTOH the real information might remain classified for three decades or longer. I just feel that some additional context can help with understanding the potential circumstances.