Turks are claiming SU-24
War Against ISIS
- Thread starter spikehades
- Start date
If the Turks really shot down a Russian Su-24 in Syrian airspace, this is an act of war. And given that Edrogan is the one confirming it, it doesn't look good. Russian MoD says they have proof from control assets that the plane was never in Turkish airspace. The plane definitely fell inside Syria.
Russians have apparently confirmed SU-24
plane went down in a loc known by the Turks as the Turkmen Mountains. TM lies in northern Syria near Turkish border
1 x pilot allegedly captured
2 x ejected
plane went down in a loc known by the Turks as the Turkmen Mountains. TM lies in northern Syria near Turkish border
1 x pilot allegedly captured
2 x ejected
Yep, see above. Russia also however says it's ground fire, not a jet fighter.
Kk
Uh oh! Russian Su-24 confirmed shot down, pilots ejected into Syria territory but fates unknown.Turkey claims F-16 got the kill, Moscow says ground fire brought it down. AFAIK ISIS i nkt a presence in the area and the locals are anti-Assad. Putin to appear on TV shortly.
Turkey shoots down RUSSIAN Su-24 jet on Syrian border | Daily Mail Online
Uh oh! Russian Su-24 confirmed shot down, pilots ejected into Syria territory but fates unknown.Turkey claims F-16 got the kill, Moscow says ground fire brought it down. AFAIK ISIS i nkt a presence in the area and the locals are anti-Assad. Putin to appear on TV shortly.
Turkey shoots down RUSSIAN Su-24 jet on Syrian border | Daily Mail Online
The Russians have been warned by Turkey about bombing Syrian Turkmen who they regard as relatives and who live in that area
they called the russians in for a chat earlier this week to get ask them to stop bombing them
What happens if the next incident is the downing of a Turkish jet bombing the Kurds, by a Russian SAM "reaching" in from Syrian territory? If the shootdown was indeed over Syrian air space, this is a very nasty incident, and one with potential for escalation. Russian sources say the plane was at an altitude of 6000m.
EDIT: The Turks are saying they issued 10 separate warnings over 5 minutes of time.
have to wait till the media fog clears.
will be speculation for the next week or so I would think
will be speculation for the next week or so I would think
the forensics will be the key
problem is that both sides can offer up their COP as proof of life
I suspect that the US will be trawling through satellite runs to see proof of launch - plus the shootdown area is in Latakia - so there will be some imagery overlap from a few other independent sources.
How likely do you think retaliation by Russia is? I mean it's pretty clear the Turks don't want to let Assad push all the way to the Turkish border in Latakia, given that it would seriously hamper their ability to supply weapons to the rebels. So at this point it becomes a question of how far each side is willing to go.
EDIT: One of the pilots was captured by local Turkmen.
No idea - but the turks don't have entirely clean hands in the whole "contain" syria exercise. they're as culpable as the saudis are.
the whole thing is a cluster from my perspective. I can see a few ambassadors clocking up frequent flyer points....
It sure would be nice if the situation gets resolved by ambassadors. However given recent rhetoric by Russia and the nature, scope, and scale of the response to the downing of the Russian airliner, Russian leadership may feel that they need to make a parallel response. Russian commentators are already buzzing, saying that the correct thing to do would be to "drop" a couple of Turkish F-16s in response. There will be a lot of pressure from inside Russia for a hard line response to this.
This could lead to another escalation of Russian presence. There are already indicators that additional Russian assets are quietly being prepared. I wonder what Turkey would do, if the response to this is a heavier and more indiscriminate bombardment of the Turkmen that the Turks were trying to protect in the first place?
And of course, at the end of the day, closing the Turkish border to arms flow is still a must for Assad, so the SAA won't stop pushing northward as long as they have the resources. They made significant grounds in that area over the last few days.
I think whats telling (and admittedly its only hours old) is that if there was a violation of air space there would be supportive NATO voices.
The Turks would have invoked NATO for supporting commentary as well
I suspect that a few NATO partners are backtracking their COP and AOC imagery to see what the data says before adding public commentary too
either way, if the platform dived into syrian territory then it leaves two options, it was either in turkish airspace and died in syrian airspace or its been shot inside syrian airspace
all the prev chat about a NFZ will now crop up again
The Turks would have invoked NATO for supporting commentary as well
I suspect that a few NATO partners are backtracking their COP and AOC imagery to see what the data says before adding public commentary too
either way, if the platform dived into syrian territory then it leaves two options, it was either in turkish airspace and died in syrian airspace or its been shot inside syrian airspace
all the prev chat about a NFZ will now crop up again
A NATO statement is announced soon. Given the general tone of NATO rhetoric against Russia, there is no way they will denounce the Turks even if there is no airspace violation. But whether they make a specific allegation or general statements will likely tell us a lot.
After Libya, Russia will refuse any NFZ, and given that they have presence in-country, short of going to war with them, how can any NFZ be realistically imposed?
Russian helos doing SAR.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AJTurk/status/669093295339913216
NATO won't be giving unequivocal support to the Turks if the AOC and COP data is indefensible
It may be the only out that can be inserted to help avoid further incidents - or the Turks will need to do what the French and Israelis have done - and co-ord properly
that would seem to indicate one crew member still unaccounted for
No, of course not. Exactly what I'm getting at. But they won't come out and condemn them. So our indicator will be what kind of statement NATO issues.
In those two cases, they want to avoid incidents. In the case of the Turks, I suspect they wanted this to happen. They needed to send a message that they don't want Russia bombing the Turkmen fighters. Which is why I suspect they're lying about this. They lied about the last UAV downing, claiming it was an F-16 shoot-down when it clearly fell. Which is another reason why I suspect a harder response from Russia is likely.
One was captured, one is missing hence the SAR activity. I wonder if Russia will attempt a rescue operation of the captured crew member.
One of the pilots allegedly died. Details lacking.
https://mobile.twitter.com/green_lemonnn/status/669096228777521153
Turks publish alleged flight paths of the two planes. The grey one is the one they shot down.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669096544650600448
EDIT: The red is the one they shot down, the grey is the Turkish F-16 that fired.
https://mobile.twitter.com/green_lemonnn/status/669096228777521153
Turks publish alleged flight paths of the two planes. The grey one is the one they shot down.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669096544650600448
EDIT: The red is the one they shot down, the grey is the Turkish F-16 that fired.
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I'm going to stay sceptical for a few days until I get info from other sources.
not keen on accepting AOC data from Turkey or Russia - and in this case, data that is missing some fundamental display components.
that image is almost meaningless as presented.... and if some poor bastard got killed for crossing over that spur then I'm a bit gobsmacked that someone thought it warranted that response
but, until more meaningful data comes out I'm trying to avoid extrapolating whats coming from the ambulance chasers
Clearly. If/when you hear something, can you give us a heads up?
Come on. In the context of the situation, the air strikes against the Turkmen in the area, and Turkish involvement with the war in Syria, you know it's not about the airspace. The response was never to the actual violations. Look at how many violations Russia racked up in northern Europe. This was about sending Russia a message. Which is why I'm suspecting there will be a nasty response. The response won't be about technicalities, like whether the Russian plane was or wasn't 3 cm inside Turkish airspace. It will be about letting Turkey know where they can stick their objections to Russia's actions in Syria.
Understandable. But I think the context here is key. Details about the violation itself are meaningful only to a point. It's fairly unlikely that a Russian bomber made a serious foray into Turkish territory, especially since it went down inside Syria. So barring that unlikely option, what are we left with?