Flanker Export Thread

[tonnyc]

End of service life? Their Su-27s are much younger then the Russian ones. And Russia has upgraded and will continue to operate, Su-27SM variants.

There is a big question mark regarding why Indonesia does not upgrade their oldest Su-27/30 from the SK and MK standards to at least SKM and MK2 standards. No one has a good explanation.

The end of service life rumor might not make sense to you, but the complete version of the rumor sorta makes sense. I don't consider the source to be credible though. But what is true is that Russia did not offer an upgrade program for those first batch. Not after the Su-30 MK2 was delivered, and not as a sweetener for the current Su-35 pitch. And Indonesia didn't push for it either. No high ranking Indonesian official ever said they will push for a Flanker upgrade program.

 

[Feanor]

14 Su-40MKAs have been sold to Algeria. This will bring their total fleet of the type up to 58.

ПодпиÑан контракт на поÑтавку в Ðлжир 14 иÑтребителей Су-30МКИ(Ð) - bmpd
Ðад пµÑками Сахары - Берлога Бронемедведа

 

[nevidimka]

Great news for Algeria, and INdonesia if they eventually get 40+ flankers. Its a pity Malaysia did not increase their Su 30' numbers. Stuck at 18, which is too small for anything.

Problem with Malaysia is they lack funds, along with the normal corruptions, they end up with very small number of planes.. and then wait so long until there is funds.. n start looking at other options.

A force of 54 Flankers would be right for Malaysia to cover both east and west Malaysia and effectively patrol the South China sea.

But now that Su 35 is already here, would it make sense to buy more su 30mkm's or switch to su 35, or get new su 30 mkm's upgraded to su 35's standards?

Based on capability, su 35 edges past su 30 mkm/mki right?

 

[Haavarla]

Ongoing talks for Su-35 to Pakistan.


Pakistani official confirms Su-35 talks - IHS Jane's 360

 

[Feanor]

Ongoing talks for Su-35 to Pakistan.


Pakistani official confirms Su-35 talks - IHS Jane's 360

They seem desperate to land contracts for the type. They've had a hard time doing so, and given that a large part of the purpose of the Su-35S was to offset the cost of the PAK-FA by sharing some key subsystems, and being exported widely, this affects the price of the PAK-FA.

Meanwhile a Venezuelan Su-30 crashed.

 

[Haavarla]

Two more Su-30MK2V delivered to Vietnam.

 

[Feanor]

Two more Su-30MK2V delivered to Vietnam.

Venezuela is planning another 12 plane squadron buy, plus a replacement for the crashed jet. Presumably this would bring them up to 36 active birds, contracting another 13.

КомпенÑÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ - Берлога Бронемедведа

If the Indonesian and Venezuelan deals materialize, this will be a decent year for Flanker sales. Of course the domestic market seems to be the priority at this point, with the new Su-35S and Su-30SM deals. But export sales still seem to be important, and they're even desperate enough to try to sell the Su-35S to Pakistan.

 

[swerve]

I wonder who'll pay for more Venezuelan aircraft. A gift from Russia?

 

[Feanor]

I wonder who'll pay for more Venezuelan aircraft. A gift from Russia?

Russia is desperate to sell. They may bank on Venezuelan ability to pay in the medium term, and provide a loan in the short term. Though honestly I don't know. I don't even know if the deal will actually go through.

 

[Feanor]

And the Venezuelan deal goes through, but for the Su-30MK2. 480 mln dollars for 12, likely bought without weapons or spares. The source says Venezuela is providing the funds, but where they are getting them is unclear. They may come from the Russian loan which has yet to be fully spent.

ВенеÑуÑла выделÑет 480 млн долларов Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð·Ð°ÐºÑƒÐ¿ÐºÐ¸ у РоÑÑии 12 ¸Ñтребителей Су-30МК2 - bmpd

 

[Haavarla]

why cannot Venez afford this deal?

ВенеÑуÑла купит 12 иÑтребителей Су-30 за 480 миллионов: Оружие: Силовые Ñтруктуры: Lenta.ru

Its far between the larger defence invenstment done by Venezuela the last 10 years..

 

[tonnyc]

I am not sure why Venezuela could not afford the deal described in lenta.ru and BMPD, but whatever that deal is, it doesn't seem to be the same deal described by the Venezuelan Defense Minister, where he described it as "the president authorized $480 million for the service life...."

Aporrea's article has actual video. Skip the boring speeches and go to 8:45 and there about and listen to what Defense Minister Padrino Lopez said.

Another article from El Nacional.

The are others that can be found via Google News. Just make sure not to limit yourself to English results, as the articles are in Spanish.

There are others, but it seems that Venezuelan sources are quite consistent in using words like "maintenance", "extend", and "service life" in contrast to Russian sources who portray it as a sale of new Flankers. The Venezuelans seems to think that they are buying a maintenance package, not new Flankers. Perhaps the Russians mistranslated, but if that's the case, they really should find a better translator.

 

[Haavarla]

No.
Venez AF get those Flankers in service overhauled, and new Flankers too.

 

[tonnyc]

No.
Venez AF get those Flankers in service overhauled, and new Flankers too.

Uh, neither Russia nor Venezuela say that. Venezuelan sources say maintenance package. Russian sources say new Flankers. It's possible that you meant Venezuela intends to do both. They do and maybe tomorrow there'll be another deal to complement this one. But as of yesterday, the deal is for either the maintenance package or new Flankers, but not both.

Look, I got no beef in whether Venezuela buys new Flankers or not. Their money, their air force, their business. I just try to cross-check news because trusting any single source is not a good idea today. The above are what I found.

 

[barney41]

Puzzling prioritization of funds by the Venezuelan government. Operating fast jets is expensive moreso when the economy is in the dumps. I would doubt new purchases but finding the money to maintain existing jets seems sensible.
Venezuela is running out of cash and selling its gold - Oct. 29, 2015

 

[StobieWan]

Uh, neither Russia nor Venezuela say that. Venezuelan sources say maintenance package. Russian sources say new Flankers. It's possible that you meant Venezuela intends to do both. They do and maybe tomorrow there'll be another deal to complement this one. But as of yesterday, the deal is for either the maintenance package or new Flankers, but not both.

Look, I got no beef in whether Venezuela buys new Flankers or not. Their money, their air force, their business. I just try to cross-check news because trusting any single source is not a good idea today. The above are what I found.

Not sure if this article clarifies anything but it looks like they're talking a purchase here:

Ministro de la Defensa ratifica compra de 12 Sukhoi - Nacional y Política


"Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, confirmed the decision of President Nicolas Maduro on the disbursement of $ 480 million to strengthen the fleet of the Military Aviation Venezuela with the purchase of 12 Russian Sukhoi 30. The purchase of the aircraft Russian fighter Sukhoi 30 had already been announced by the Head of State, in September, after the death of two pilots when one of those machines crashed in an area of Elorza, in the drawer of Arauca, in Apure state. From the General Command of the Navy, the defense minister referred to investments in military matters has made ​​the National Executive. Underwater Caribbean C32 Padrino López reported on the investment of 11 billion bolivars in the government program "Black First Mission "; 6 billion bolivars for the improvement of the FAN and indicated that the project of the Navy in the Caribbean construction of the submarine C-32 has an advance of almost 70%."

 

[swerve]

Puzzling prioritization of funds by the Venezuelan government. Operating fast jets is expensive moreso when the economy is in the dumps. I would doubt new purchases but finding the money to maintain existing jets seems sensible.
Venezuela is running out of cash and selling its gold - Oct. 29, 2015

Don't expect economically rational decisions from Maduro & his gang. They've proved that just like Chavez, they're incapable of them.

 

[tonnyc]

I did not see the El Universal article when I wrote my post yesterday. (Shrug) I repeat, I don't actually care whether Venezuela buys the twelve new Su-30 or not.

Look, we actually have a video of the primary source that people can watch and listen to. Anyone who wants to can find out exactly what Defense Minister Lopez said instead on relying on mass media interpretation. The video is complete too, not just an edited sound bite without context. You can watch the whole 13 minutes video if you want to.

It is possible that Mr. Lopez misspoke, or that the Venezuelan government changed their mind after he spoke. But what Mr. Lopez said at that speech seems pretty clear to me.

But hey, if next year or the year after that a delivery of twelve new Flankers materializes anyway, good for them.

 

[Feanor]

Don't expect economically rational decisions from Maduro & his gang. They've proved that just like Chavez, they're incapable of them.

Apparently they haven't spent all of their Russian credit money yet, so they have some from the 4 billion they got a little while back still left.

 

[Feanor]

The Chinese Su-35 contract is finally signed, officially. 24 aircraft, allegedly for 2 billion dollars. There was a request by China to include Chinese avionics, but it's unclear whether this will actually happen. Also, this does not include any license production deal. It remains to be seen whether this is the first of a larger procurement program with eventual license production in China.

Контракт на поÑтавку Китаю 24 иÑтребителе¹ Су-35 подпиÑан - bmpd