War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

Updates.

There's information that the Syrian forces have completely surrounded the rebel positions in the south part of Aleppo. They've been pushing to close the cauldron for a little bit now, and this would be a success.

http://ria.ru/syria/20151102/1312484722.html

US ground forces are headed to Syria, to embed with anti-ISIS fighters. My understanding is that they'll be joining the Kurds.

Ðе только Ñ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð´ÑƒÑ…Ð° - Берлога Бронемедведа

Some photos from Hmeimeem airbase, showing an Il-76 landing, and the planes being prepped for combat. Note the Russian Lynx LMV, reportedly some tens of them are deployed there though the real numbers are likely lower.

The third link is an Iveco LMV with a GAZ Sadko truck, known to be used by the Syrian Army. It's likely that the Ivecos are being used by Russian military personnel, and given their higher protection levels, probably by the ones closer to the front line with the Syrians. The machinegun on it's roof is a Kord. But what's even more interesting is the first comment, with the poster wondering about GAZ Sadko trucks in desert paint jobs regularly seen going somewhere in Russia.

Хмеймим - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Ðхтунг! Боевые бурÑÑ‚Ñ‹! - Берлога Бронемедведа
Куда - куда... Вот куда! - Берлога Бронемедведа

Laser-guided KAB-1500 bombs were used likely for the first time in Syria. 1.5 tonns makes them the largest aerial munitions used by Russia in Syria so far. Makes one wonder about the targets. However this is an old munition, and had seen previous combat use as far back as the Soviet war in Afghanistan.

Полторашка - Берлога Бронемедведа

Iraqi missile systems are showing up in Syria near Aleppo, specifically the Kataib Hezbollah, which is an S-75 based ballistic missile that's been used by Iraqi Shiite militias. The presence of Iraqi militias in Syria had been noted earlier, but this is a step up. I can't help but wonder why Russia hasn't chosen to deploy Iskander missiles there. They would be much more useful, not too difficult to do (certainly cheaper then that Caspian launch) and could fill the same role much better.

Ð*акета иракÑкой "Катаиб Хезболла" под Ðлеппо ? - Юрий ЛÑмин

A rare sighting of a BTR-80 in Syria. To the best of my knowledge the Russian forces there have BTR-82 and 82As, although a BTR-80 was seen in a column with Russian artillery and comm vehicles. This is a classic BTR-80, right next to the TOS-1A. A batch of 30 BTR-80s was handed over as aid to Syria, to provide security for convoys carrying chemical weapons to the port, but the vehicles of course remained long after that particular operation was over. There's some question whether additional BTR-80s and even 82s were supplied to the Syrian military or not, and given that it's right next to the TOS-1A, there is a chance that these are Russian vehicles, in a relatively safe position.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2015/11/80-82.html

 

[Kantervo]

Wow, I haven't visited this forum for a long while and it's really nice to observe the discussion which is going on here! May I ask what do you think about the current political situation around Syria? This Vienna talks? Will it be possible for the US and Russia to coordinate their efforts in fighting ISIS? Also, the topic of possible elections in Syria is rather interesting.
IMHO it looks like the US and Russia have finally understood that cooperation with international partners is a reasonable way to resolve the Syrian crisis. The Obama administration seems to accept the principle that Syrian citizens should be given an opportunity to choose their own leadership, however, it looks like V.Putin is still convinced that Assad is the best choice in such a case.
Also, it is notable that the representatives from the United Nations and the European Union take part in the Vienna talks, because the aftermath of civilian war in Syria, combined with the threat which comes from ISIS affects global community and must be treated collectively.
Certainly, everyone understands that free and fair elections in Syria will only be possible after the armed hostilities are over, but with ISIS militants roaming all over the country and controlling more than a quarter of its’ territory, such a perspective is unlikely. Among other things, the support of Mr.Assad in Syria is rather high and he may be able to keep his position as a president. Such a scenario won’t suite the US, but the people of Syria have their right to choose their own future and the international community is more than ready to help and support them.
So, I think that the most important issue right now is for Russia and forces backed by US to combine their efforts. Maybe it is possible to deal with the ISIS groups separately, but in coordination, for example, by VVS and FSA simultaneously in different locations. There are reasons to believe that together, Moscow and Washington will be able to destroy this bunch of criminals, because both states have a lot of experience in such type of warfare.
Hopefully, Barak Obama and Vladimir Putin will be able to find a compromise. It ould be nice to hear your opinions.

 

[Feanor]

Wow, I haven't visited this forum for a long while and it's really nice to observe the discussion which is going on here! May I ask what do you think about the current political situation around Syria? This Vienna talks? Will it be possible for the US and Russia to coordinate their efforts in fighting ISIS? Also, the topic of possible elections in Syria is rather interesting.
IMHO it looks like the US and Russia have finally understood that cooperation with international partners is a reasonable way to resolve the Syrian crisis. The Obama administration seems to accept the principle that Syrian citizens should be given an opportunity to choose their own leadership, however, it looks like V.Putin is still convinced that Assad is the best choice in such a case.
Also, it is notable that the representatives from the United Nations and the European Union take part in the Vienna talks, because the aftermath of civilian war in Syria, combined with the threat which comes from ISIS affects global community and must be treated collectively.
Certainly, everyone understands that free and fair elections in Syria will only be possible after the armed hostilities are over, but with ISIS militants roaming all over the country and controlling more than a quarter of its’ territory, such a perspective is unlikely. Among other things, the support of Mr.Assad in Syria is rather high and he may be able to keep his position as a president. Such a scenario won’t suite the US, but the people of Syria have their right to choose their own future and the international community is more than ready to help and support them.
So, I think that the most important issue right now is for Russia and forces backed by US to combine their efforts. Maybe it is possible to deal with the ISIS groups separately, but in coordination, for example, by VVS and FSA simultaneously in different locations. There are reasons to believe that together, Moscow and Washington will be able to destroy this bunch of criminals, because both states have a lot of experience in such type of warfare.
Hopefully, Barak Obama and Vladimir Putin will be able to find a compromise. It ould be nice to hear your opinions.

Welcome back to defencetalk. I'd like to remind you that this is a military and defense forum. While some political discussion is unavoidable, given the nature of this conflict, please try to keep it to a minimum. I also can't help but wonder about your very simplistic view of the conflict and the sides involved in it. I know most of my links are in Russian, but others have posted materials that highlight the complex and contradictory nature of what's going on in Syria and Iraq. I strongly encourage you to read some of not only the things posted here, but also the articles linked to by other members.

 

[A.V. Berg]

РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÑ‚ активные поÑтавки новой бронетехники вооруженным Ñилам Сирии | Военный информатор

A report of T 72Bs in Syrian Service. I read somewhere that previously, the Syrians only had the Soviet export models.

I would imagine that if the Russians undertook to supply tanks, there would have to be a lot of them to make a difference. Syrian tank fleet would have to be severely depopulated by now.

I could be completely off the mark but it seems that the Syrians urgently need a cheap MRAP-type vehicle, even something as simple as a Ural Federal armoured truck. Otherwise, their new tanks could just get eaten up in urban combat.

 

[Feanor]

Ð*оÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÑ‚ активные поÑтавки новой бронетехники вооруженным Ñилам Сирии | Военный информатор

A report of T 72Bs in Syrian Service. I read somewhere that previously, the Syrians only had the Soviet export models.

I would imagine that if the Russians undertook to supply tanks, there would have to be a lot of them to make a difference. Syrian tank fleet would have to be severely depopulated by now.

I could be completely off the mark but it seems that the Syrians urgently need a cheap MRAP-type vehicle, even something as simple as a Ural Federal armoured truck. Otherwise, their new tanks could just get eaten up in urban combat.

This is not surprising. There were images of identical looking T-72s and BMP-1/2s in Novorossiysk not too long ago, awaiting loading for the Syrian express. Now they're cropping up in Syria. What seems a little stranger are claims that Lynx armored vehicles were handed over to the Syrians. This seems rather unlikely. Only 358 vehicles were ever delivered, the spare parts situation for them is unclear, and the Russian military currently has no other MRAP. The closest Russian equivalent is the Tayfun 4X4 which is depended on western import components, that are under sanctions, which is why they're trying to claim that they will go to law enforcement instead (the MVD) as a way of dodging sanctions. Whether this worked or not is unclear.

I'm also not convinced BTR-82s were handed over either. It's possible, and in my opinion far likelier, but I'll wait on better evidence.

As for the state of the Syrian tank fleet, they've switched from T-72s to predominantly T-55 and T-62 tanks. This is a pretty clear sign that they're not doing well. In terms of numbers, even 30-50 T-72Bs would be a significant boost, especially since they should already have maintenance, spares, and ammunition for them. It should be a fairly simple thing to put them to work. And a tank btlns plus sized element on fresh tanks, with working ERA, and potentially fresh crews (Iranians operate the T-72 ) could make a huge difference in reviving a stalled offensive, like the push towards Kweiris.

EDIT: I looked again at the older photos. The paintjob is very similar, but a little bit different. It's likely more then one batch was delivered, probably from different ARZs. That or they decided to adjust the color scheme. Link to the old photos from Novorossiysk

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/390031.html

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russian air strikes over Nov 1-2 continued, striking 237 targets in 131 sorties. This makes an average of 118.5 targets struck. Prior to this the highest number of targets per day was on Oct 28th, at 118. Even with a nearly even split, one the last two days still surpasses that setting a new high. There are some questions about the effectiveness of Russian air strikes, but the numbers still seem to be on the rise. There may also be some relation between the offensive, and the op tempo of the Russian air group.

Продолжение операции ВКС Ð*оÑÑии в Сирии 2 ноÑÐ±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd

Syrian rebels have captured a ZSU-23-4 near Aleppo. It should be noted that prior to this the only serious AA the rebels had captured was an Osa SAM, which was promptly found and destroyed by Russia early into its air operation. While the Su-24 and 34 are relatively safe from the ZSU-23-4, the Su-25s are not. Likely it's destruction will be a priority.

СирийÑким боевикам удалоÑÑŒ захватить зенитную уÑтановку в окреÑтноÑÑ‚ÑÑ… Ðлеппо | Военный информатор

Moderate rebels are using kidnapped Alawite civilians, kept in cages, as human shields. ISIS had, if I recall correctly, used human shields in the past, but this time they're not the culprit. And of course this nicely illustrates the nature of the "moderate" opposition.

Ð’ Ðлеппо повÑтанцы иÑпользуют людей в клетках чтобы Ñдержать ÑирийÑкие и роÑÑийÑкие военно-воздушные Ñилы | Военный информатор

Iranian thermal optics have been captured by rebels in Syria. This highlights not only the support Syria is getting, but the relative sophistication of the Iranian aid.

ИранÑкие тепловизионные прицелы в Сирии - Юрий ЛÑмин

3 Moroccans were arrested in Madrid, accused of being recruiters for ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ìàäðèäå àðåñòîâàíû òðîå ìàðîêêàíöåâ, ãîòîâèâøèõ òåðàêòû â Èñïàíèè îò èìåíè "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà"

Russia has sent a list of Syrian opposition groups that will be included in the negotiation process with Assad.

It will include Ahmad al-Dzharba, Ahmed Muah al-Khatyb, Badr Dzhamus, and Khaled Khodzha. They are the former and current leadership of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. Also approved are representatives from the Syrian National Council, Damascus Spring, Democratic Tribunes, Movement for a Pluralistic Society, the Communist Party, Party of Syrian Unity, and others.

Russia also suggested including representatives of the Kurds. This list was handed over to the Turks, Saudis, and the US at Vienna by foreign minister Lavrov.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ñîñòàâèëà ñïèñîê ñèðèéñêèõ îïïîçèöèîíåðîâ, êîòîðûõ ìîæíî äîïóñòèòü ê ïåðåãîâîðàì

EDIT: I found an interesting summary in colonelcassad. It's Russian, and very long, so I'm not going to be able to translate the whole thing, but the maps are mostly self-evident and interesting. It seems that the Syrian army is pushing hard south-west of Aleppo, to secure a major highway. Fighting in Aleppo itself is slow and undecisive, and the rebels in Aleppo have not been effectively surrounded. Meanwhile ISIS continues to gain ground primarily from the other rebels, but also partly from the government.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2459514.html

 

[Ranger25]

IDF strikes

Israel reportedly carried out two waves of attacks on 30 October and 1 November against Syrian military facilities containing weapons allegedly destined for Lebanon's Hizbullah organisation.

Several Syrian pro-opposition news sources reported that Israeli aircraft used stand-off air-to-surface guided missiles launched from Lebanese airspace to attack targets located in the Qalamoun region north of Damascus.

The first wave was reported by the pro-opposition news outlet Syria Mubasher to have hit at 1100 h local time on 30 October. Another pro-rebel news source, Al-Hal, quoted a local opposition activist as saying Israeli jets hit a Hizbullah position near Ras al-Ain village, 55 km northeast of Damascus, and the Syrian Arab Army's 155th Brigade ballistic missile base southwest of Qutayfah.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Unconfirmed information that Syrian government forces took the road leading from Salamia to Aleppo. It's supposedly the main supply route towards Aleppo.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / Ñèðèéñêàÿ àðìèÿ âçÿëà ïîä êîíòðîëü ñòðàòåãè÷åñêè âàæíóþ òðàññó

Footage of Su-34s with KAB-1500 bombs.

Фото Су-34 Ñ ÐšÐБ-1500 в Сирии. - Юрий ЛÑмин
Применение в Сирии боеприпаÑов повышенного могущеÑтва. - Блокнот военного милитариÑта

A Russian An-30B aerial monitoring plane has been spotted in Syria. It's likely that the shorter range UAVs and fighter-plane mounted sensors are not enough, though it's not clear why a much newer Tu-214ON wasn't sent instead.

Ðн-30 ВВС Ð*оÑÑии в Сирии - mikael655

US sources report that 5 Russian Mi-24P helos have been rebased to T-4 airbase near Palmyra. This would be a significant and risky deployment, quite clearly aimed against ISIS specifically. Again the absence of more modern helos is strange, especially given how they're using the Hinds.

Ми-24 ВКС Ð*оÑÑии около Пальмиры - Юрий ЛÑмин

The Russian MoD stated that the operation in Syria will continue as long as Assad's offensive does. This may or may not contradict earlier claims that the operations there will continue for no more then a year, since offensive may literally mean his current offensive operation, or it may mean until he wins the war.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíîáîðîíû ÐÔ: îïåðàöèÿ ÂÊÑ â Ñèðèè îãðàíè÷åíà ñðîêîì íàñòóïëåíèÿ àðìèè Àñàäà

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that keeping Assad in office is not a principal concern for Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âëàñòè Ðîññèè ïåðåñòàëè ñ÷èòàòü "ïðèíöèïèàëüíûì ìîìåíòîì" ñîõðàíåíèå Àñàäà íà ïîñòó ïðåçèäåíòà Ñèðèè

EDIT: A not very interesting article, that does however point out a significant fact. In the absence of APCs, MRAPs, or even armored trucks, the GAZ Sadko has become one of the main transport vehicles in the Syrian Army over the past year. Some hundreds were purchased prior to the war, and it's quite likely that deliveries continue. These trucks are cheap, fairly reliable and easy to maintain, and serve both as troop transport and as fire support vehicles (with HMGs or ZU-23-2s mounted in the trunk).

It also highlights an important weakness, that another poster pointed out earlier. The Syrians need a real armored truck, if not MRAP.

http://vestnik-rm.ru/news-4-14005.htm

 

[Toblerone]

Why don't the russians supply trucks and tanks from their bottomless soviet era stockpiles?

Is it a logistical problem or don't the syrians have enough crews/fuel or something?

It just seems that Russia has untold numbers of soviet equipment at the end of its service life or in storage already. And they could be put in "good" use in Syria without russian crews. It is also equipment that the syrians have been using already mostly, so it won't be a scandalous escalation or a danger to all those high-tech neighbors.

 

[Feanor]

Why don't the russians supply trucks and tanks from their bottomless soviet era stockpiles?

Is it a logistical problem or don't the syrians have enough crews/fuel or something?

It just seems that Russia has untold numbers of soviet equipment at the end of its service life or in storage already. And they could be put in "good" use in Syria without russian crews. It is also equipment that the syrians have been using already mostly, so it won't be a scandalous escalation or a danger to all those high-tech neighbors.

It's not that easy. Russian repair plants are not in ideal condition, and are pretty busy handling work for Russian army units. It also costs quite a bit to do an overhaul on older equipment. But the real bottle neck seems to be transportation. Russia has had trouble bringing in munitions, and even ground assets for the base. They've done a lot with very little, but it appears that only in the second half of october has Russia started bringing armored vehicles to Syria, for Syria. We do know that they've delivered other equipment earlier, before they started their own deployment. It's likely that they had to put a lot, if not all, deliveries on halt while they built the base.

Things could improve, once Russia's newly acquired transports get working on the Syrian express. And they've relocated ships from other fleets, basically everything with transport capacity they could get over there. So I would expect to see the total quantity of cargo rise, and supplies to the Syrians to increase.

 

[Ranger25]

It also highlights an important weakness, that another poster pointed out earlier. The Syrians need a real armored truck, if not MRAP.


Agreed, but by the looks of the photos they're not being used in areas of any threat but for basic logistical movements. Doesn't look like they're being used for front line troop carriers

 

[barney41]

Western Intelligence sources raising the likelihood of an ISIS bomb brought down the Russian airliner over Egypt. If confirmed, how will Putin react? I fear the Syrians will bear the brunt of an ecalated air campaign at the very least. Hopefully he'll prioritize bombing ISIS over moderate anti-Assad factions.

A couple of days ago there was a CNN eeport that there seemed to be no visible increase in airport security after the ISIS claims of downj the plane were made. I think that may be changing.

 

[Feanor]

Agreed, but by the looks of the photos they're not being used in areas of any threat but for basic logistical movements. Doesn't look like they're being used for front line troop carriers

1) What do you think they are using in high threat areas? They have almost no APCs, and the BMP fleet is old, worn out, and relatively small.

2) They're using them as direct-fire support vehicles with ZU-23-2s. If that's not a threat area, I don't know what is. Typically most militaries would use an IFV or even MBT for those roles.

Western Intelligence sources raising the likelihood of an ISIS bomb brought down the Russian airliner over Egypt. If confirmed, how will Putin react? I fear the Syrians will bear the brunt of an ecalated air campaign at the very least. Hopefully he'll prioritize bombing ISIS over moderate anti-Assad factions.

A couple of days ago there was a CNN eeport that there seemed to be no visible increase in airport security after the ISIS claims of downj the plane were made. I think that may be changing.

The head of the airport has just been removed. And yes, it appears that ISIS is responsible. I too wonder what actual steps will be taken. Another cruise missile salvo? More aircraft, possibly (finally) modern helos? Ground involvement? An overdue Iskander complex deployment?

 

[Toblerone]

If it's true that it was a bomb and the russians choose to accept it, then it's a card in Putin's hand. But how would he play it?

Maybe he could announce a military equipment package for Assad to fight IS. Or maybe deploy spetznaz/advisors on the front line. I think even a few hundred of special forces veterans would make an actual difference in the syrian battlescape.

 

[barney41]

The head of the airport has just been removed. And yes, it appears that ISIS is responsible. I too wonder what actual steps will be taken. Another cruise missile salvo? More aircraft, possibly (finally) modern helos? Ground involvement? An overdue Iskander complex deployment?

Ironically it's reported that the airport manager has been promoted and is now the No.2 guy in charge of all civilian Egyptian airports. The downing of the jet may just be ironic timing. In any case, the UK and Ireland have imposed a moratorium on flights to Sharm El Sheikh and sent a team to evaluate the security situation at the airport.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Western Intelligence sources raising the likelihood of an ISIS bomb brought down the Russian airliner over Egypt. If confirmed, how will Putin react? I fear the Syrians will bear the brunt of an ecalated air campaign at the very least. Hopefully he'll prioritize bombing ISIS over moderate anti-Assad factions.

this assymetrical escalation was exactly what I was referring to a few weeks back

this kind of thing was going to be inevitable - if they couldn't counter with force on force they were always going to revert to attacking offshore where shades of grey took effect

 

[Feanor]

this assymetrical escalation was exactly what I was referring to a few weeks back

this kind of thing was going to be inevitable - if they couldn't counter with force on force they were always going to revert to attacking offshore where shades of grey took effect

Well they certainly played well, if this is indeed them. Attack in Russia itself are hard, given the state security apparatus in place, and the willingness to take down terrorists, without considering the hostages. A large international incident like this one is a bigger deal, and harder to respond to.

On the other hand, it's entirely possible that the plane crashed for other reasons. Russian maintenance for aircraft is traditionally bad. ISIS may simply be taking credit, because they can.

Meanwhlie Russia has been escalating its involvement in Syria. So the Russian response may be one ISIS does not enjoy.

 

[PO2GRV]

In any case, Russian state information machine could spin this anyway way the administration wishes for the home audience.

What worries me most is that should the administration wish, the crash could be used as a casus belli of sorts to justify a much greater involvement, specifically the use of ground forces in a general deployment. While the administration has high or very high levels of popular support, by all indications id seen the Syrian Intervention had low or mixed support.

If the crash was brought down intentionally, by any group for any purpose, the entire region will become very dangerous very quickly.

I need to call my doctor for some more ulcer medication

 

[Feanor]

In any case, Russian state information machine could spin this anyway way the administration wishes for the home audience.

What worries me most is that should the administration wish, the crash could be used as a casus belli of sorts to justify a much greater involvement, specifically the use of ground forces in a general deployment. While the administration has high or very high levels of popular support, by all indications id seen the Syrian Intervention had low or mixed support.

If the crash was brought down intentionally, by any group for any purpose, the entire region will become very dangerous very quickly.

I need to call my doctor for some more ulcer medication

As best as I can tell, there is already a Russian artillery group working in support of Assad's forces. There are also Russian "advisers" embedded with Assad's units in some places. Their role is unclear, possibly to observe, or to act as FACs, or UAV operators. Remember, Russia lacks long-range UAVs, yet is in this conflict heavily relying on UAV footage for recon and BDA.

There's a good chance that Russian special forces of some sort are in play, though confirmation on that would be unlikely.

It remains to be seen how they proceed from here, but to me the logical step would be more aircraft and possible some long range missile systems (Smersh, Iskander). However it's entirely possible that they've decided that this is simply not effective enough, and are instead choosing another way to proceed (for example deployment of tube-arty and MLRS to support Assad's troops).

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Iraq has taken delivery of their first batch of L-159 combat-trainers. They ordered a total of 15, 3 of which will be used as spares.

Ирак получил первые L-159 - Юрий ЛÑмин

In a Nov 3rd briefing, the Russian MoD said that they had 1631 sorties, striking 2084 targets, since the beginning of the operation. They also admitted deploying SAMs to Syria.

Продолжение активных дейÑтвий ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãëàâêîì ÂÊÑ ÐÔ ïðèçíàë: â Ñèðèþ áûëè ïåðåáðîøåíû çåíèòíûå ðàêåòíûå ñèñòåìû

Russian air travel to Egypt is continuing as normal, for the time being, despite the incident. Meanwhile Medvedev is making statements about increasing security on international Russian flights.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ è Åãèïåò íå ñ÷èòàþò öåëåñîîáðàçíîé îòìåíó ïîëåòîâ ïîñëå êàòàñòðîôû A321, íåñìîòðÿ íà âåðñèþ î òåðàêòå

The US intends to increase aid to the moderate opposition.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ ðåøèëè óâåëè÷èòü âîåííóþ ïîääåðæêó óìåðåííîé ñèðèéñêîé îïïîçèöèè, ñîîáùèëè èñòî÷íèêè

Il-76 flights into Latakia are continuing at a solid pace. I'm not sure if this is because they're carrying urgently needed supplies, or if the maritime component is still simply not enough, but this can't be cheap.

Ил-76МД RF-78784 в Сирии . (Видео от Russia Today) - Ðвиаголоволомки
ÐÐ¾Ñ‡Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð˜Ð»Ð¾Ð². Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ñ - Ðвиаголоволомки

Western sources indicate that the Russian forces in Syria have doubled from 2000 to 4000 personnel, and many are outside of the bases. Russian aircraft are operating out of 4 bases total (though what "operating" means could be fuzzy), and Russian artillery is deployed there (not news tbh, I posted links to photos of an arty column here earlier).

+100% - Берлога Бронемедведа