South China Sea News & Discussions, incl Spratly Islands News

[swerve]

That's how WW1 started. Gavrilo Princip was one of a group which was run from inside Serbian Military Intelligence. The assassination was planned by the head of Serbian Military Intelligence. It was allegedly done with the knowledge & approval of the Russian ambassador (died of a heart attack 2 weeks after the assassination) & military attache in Belgrade, which is entirely credible, given their known attitudes.

It wasn't really minor, which was my point.


BTW, Franz Ferdinand was picked because he was seen as an enemy of Serbia. He wanted to make Austria-Hungary more democratic! And federal, with equal representation for its Slavic citizens! How dare he! That threatened to undermine Serbian irredentism (why join poor, violent, unstable Serbia if you could participate fully in running relatively prosperous, orderly, peaceful A-H?) & Pan-Slavism (why be ordered about by poor, autocratic, brutal Russia when you could vote for Slavs in the government of richer, gentler A-H?).

But I digress.

 

[John Fedup]

Welll . . . . if the Chinese security forces recruited, financed, armed & trained a group of (e.g.) Hawaiian secessionists to assassinate the vice president of the USA while he or she was performing official duties in Honolulu, & they successfully carried out the assassination, killing the VP's spouse at the same time, would you call it a minor event?

If you asked Kaiser Wilhem, Czar Nicolas or Emperor Franz-Joseph (had he lived to 1918) if this event was major enough to throw away their empires for, what would their answers be?

 

[tonnyc]

If you asked Kaiser Wilhem, Czar Nicolas or Emperor Franz-Joseph (had he lived to 1918) if this event was major enough to throw away their empires for, what would their answers be?

They would answer that they would have won if it weren't for the (insert third party here).

What is your point anyway? I understand you were trying to liken the SCS situation to the events leading to the First World War, but ask any policy maker and they will think you are stupid because (insert thing here that makes it different from WW1) and what, you think we should let (insert those other guys here) get everything?

You can't convince anyone that matters with that tack.

 

[cdxbow]

They would answer that they would have won if it weren't for the (insert third party here).

What is your point anyway? I understand you were trying to liken the SCSI situation to the events leading to the First World War, but ask any policy maker and they will think you are stupid because (insert thing here that makes it different from WW1) and what, you think we should let (insert those other guys here) get everything?

You can't convince anyone that matters with that tack.

It's not the detail, it's the pattern. Of course the detail is different, but the pattern has repeated a few times through history. The old truism says it, those who forget history are bound to repeat it, and fortunately in this case many have recognised it. Unfortunately knowing about the trap still doesn't mean you can avoid it.

 

[gazzzwp]

I understand the US Navy is proposing a close sail by of one of the newly created Chinese islands to make the point that the US sees the area as international waters.

Does anyone have an idea of the time frame for this exercise?

 

[gazzzwp]

Saying they are going to do something =/=doing something.

If this happens, we won't know (and those of us with blue handle fonts) won't be able to talk about it until afterwards.

Agreed. Can the US stand another humiliation though? Surely the weight of principle is behind the US on this one? That is an important issue that will decide whether the US takes a stand imho.

Then many questions need to be asked. Can the US Navy deal with the Chinese subs? I would have to believe that by now they have developed effective detection technology. I presume that any fleet that takes to the waters close to the new Chinese sand castles will have a respectable submarine escort?

Finally the support of allies will be an important issue. Australia, and the surrounding nations. It would also be nice to see Japan take a stance on this one.

Lots of issues here.

 

[Ranger25]

Agreed. Can the US stand another humiliation though? Surely the weight of principle is behind the US on this one? That is an important issue that will decide whether the US takes a stand imho.

Then many questions need to be asked. Can the US Navy deal with the Chinese subs? I would have to believe that by now they have developed effective detection technology. I presume that any fleet that takes to the waters close to the new Chinese sand castles will have a respectable submarine escort?

Finally the support of allies will be an important issue. Australia, and the surrounding nations. It would also be nice to see Japan take a stance on this one.

Lots of issues here.

1. Deal with PLA subs? Currently Yes, but the PLAN is getting better tech every year
LA and Virginia class can, notwithstanding the rest of the combined Fleet

2. Allies?
Japan is modifying the Constitution to Amend Military operations. The JDF is VERY capable and are now purchasing P8s, deploying Marines and Type 88 ASMs, just budgeted for two more Atago Class DDGs, Soryu class may be the most capable regional submarines, etc etc etc

The ROK navy is very, if not as or more capable then the current PLAN

The Phillipines are looking at increasing defense posture and inviting the US Navy back to Subic

Even Vietnam is looking to grow its Blue Water capabilities to deal with the PLAN

The RAN is building and now hosting a small contingent of the USMC

Nations in the South China Sea are all watching and preparing

IMO I don't see any American action required to make a statement. The US President has signed out and would rather be on the 13th Tee than deal with VVP or Xi Jinping

 

[Ranger25]

Weight of principle is probably behind the US (and I don't know what the results of the , but weight of will is solidly behind China. Plus the weight of logistics (at least in favor or just staying there) are behind the PRC. As far as enduring another humiliation, that's partly what makes me think this won't happen (note how after the Chinese mil hacks against the US, two months later there were still NYT articles discussing the admin agonizing over how to respond. That said a lot).

As far as ASW...not necessary for this. This is FONOPS, sending a single ship in driving close (eg w/in 12nm of these islands) to show to the Chinese that it can be done. You shouldn't expect the PLAN to respond with submarines or for them to attack. That would be...incredibly aggressive. Now, to get shouldered by some Chinese vessels? Heck, that's a tradition (though for the record, I don't think that's what the Soviets were trying to do here, just bad seamanship on their part).

Allies don't need to be involved, in fact shouldn't be involved too much; there's a different response to be generated by a US ship doing FONOPS in the SCS than an MSDF ship (RAN would have the same reaction probably, but different domestic reactions in Australia that I'll defer to the Diggers on the board). An MSDF ship doing this would be very, very provocative.

Agreed, I was not talking comparatively about the FONOPS, but a larger kinetic conflict involving the PRC v US et al.


And in today.....

The new U.S. Chief of Naval Operations said potential U.S. Navy freedom of navigation missions in the South China Sea are not meant to provoke nations but rather “part of exercising international rights in international waters.”

Speaking to reporters in Japan on Thursday, CNO Adm. John Richardson said the missions “should not be a surprise to anybody” and “that we will exercise freedom of navigation through wherever international law will allow.”

He went on to say that freedom of navigation operations was a standard operation of any navy in any sea.

“I think that we have to continue to proceed in accordance with international norms,” Richardson said. Freedom of navigation missions are “part of routine navigation in international waters, consistent with international rules there: I don’t see how these could be interpreted as provocative in any way.”

A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman tacitly agreed with Richardson’s basic tenets but also issued an implicit warning to the U.S. to stay away from its rapidly growing artificial islands.



CNO Richardson: Freedom of Navigation Missions in South China Sea Not Meant to Provoke - USNI News

 

[White Water]

1. Deal with PLA subs? Currently Yes, but the PLAN is getting better tech every year
LA and Virginia class can, notwithstanding the rest of the combined Fleet

2. Allies?
Japan is modifying the Constitution to Amend Military operations. The JDF is VERY capable and are now purchasing P8s, deploying Marines and Type 88 ASMs, just budgeted for two more Atago Class DDGs, Soryu class may be the most capable regional submarines, etc etc etc

The ROK navy is very, if not as or more capable then the current PLAN

The Phillipines are looking at increasing defense posture and inviting the US Navy back to Subic

Even Vietnam is looking to grow its Blue Water capabilities to deal with the PLAN

The RAN is building and now hosting a small contingent of the USMC

Nations in the South China Sea are all watching and preparing

IMO I don't see any American action required to make a statement. The US President has signed out and would rather be on the 13th Tee than deal with VVP or Xi Jinping

Just for clarifications, Japanese government is not modifying the Article 9 of the Constitution, only changing the interpretation to include not only self defence, but also collective defense. By the way, Japan is purchasing about 70 Kawasaki P-1's, not Boeing P-8's. P-1's are like P-8's without HAAWC ALA and MQ-4C control capabilities. IOC's for those capabilities are 2018, so Japan may update their capabilities afterwards at least for HAAWC ALA. Japan has ordered 3 RQ-4B's, but no Tritons.

I am not sure about South Korea as an ally when it involves China. S. Korean political leaders are now behaving like it is now a suzerainty of China just like before Sino-Japanese Treaty of 1895 which granted full independence from China. Obama could not stop S. Koreans joining AIIB nor officially discuss THAAD deployment. I would say Philippines and even Vietnam are closer to the US on this topic.

The US does not have any permanent military presence in Australia. Unlike fmr PM Tony Abbott, new PM Malcolm Turnbull is a true sinophile, so he may be little hesitant to join the US on this one. :eek

 

[cdxbow]

Today is the Day

Today the U.S. Navy plans to send the destroyer USS Lassen within 12 nautical of the 'islands' reclaimed by the PRC. Do I need to be clearing out my old 'cold war' era bomb shelter?

Actually, I expect PRC to do nothing provocative if the USN doesn't do anything to provocative, though when ever you play chicken there's a chance it might go wrong. The Chinese rhetoric has become more shrill and unyielding over the last few years which worries me that they may be forcing themselves into a corner of having to react.

 

[GermanHerman]

Today the U.S. Navy plans to send the destroyer USS Lassen within 12 nautical of the 'islands' reclaimed by the PRC. Do I need to be clearing out my old 'cold war' era bomb shelter?

Actually, I expect PRC to do nothing provocative if the USN doesn't do anything to provocative, though when ever you play chicken there's a chance it might go wrong. The Chinese rhetoric has become more shrill and unyielding over the last few years which worries me that they may be forcing themselves into a corner of having to react.

Although one could argue that crossing into the 12 mile zone is a provocative act in intself and the question who is forcing who into a corner might be open to debate.

I don't think this will spark a war but is on the same level as the russian aircrafts crossing into NATO and eastern European States airspace, a simple demonstration of power even if it is only on the psychological side since I doubt that russia would be capable of actually winning a war against NATO nor the US would actually be capable of winning against China (total nuclear anihilation aside). But at least it seems both are capable of showing enough willpower and seem to be able to inflict enough damage to not react to mild violations like this making them look strong.

In the longrun the US should find another vehicle for their foreign politics in the area though as the chinese are somewhat eager on developing capabilities to deny foreign naval forces access to their seas and even though I don't assume a military assault on Taiwan any time soon it will consequently one day be the end of the good old carrier-group-to-region-of-concern powerplay and without a naval dominance it is hard to see the US exersicing their influence in the region as they are used to since ww2.

 

[oldbrat]

In the longrun the US should find another vehicle for their foreign politics in the area though as the chinese are somewhat eager on developing capabilities to deny foreign naval forces access to their seas and even though I don't assume a military assault on Taiwan any time soon it will consequently one day be the end of the good old carrier-group-to-region-of-concern powerplay and without a naval dominance it is hard to see the US exersicing their influence in the region as they are used to since ww2.

Chinese will not react in anyway. Its not about their navy strength vs US Navy, but they know half of Russian sanctions will crush the Chinese economic.

But on another note, these Chinese have time, they will try to chew the area bit by bit for next 10-20 years.

 

[gazzzwp]

Chinese will not react in anyway. Its not about their navy strength vs US Navy, but they know half of Russian sanctions will crush the Chinese economic.

But on another note, these Chinese have time, they will try to chew the area bit by bit for next 10-20 years.

Knowing that fact the US and it's allies in the region should be taking steps to build their own facilities. Say on existing islands. That's the only way.

 

[Ranger25]

Chinese will not react in anyway. Its not about their navy strength vs US Navy, but they know half of Russian sanctions will crush the Chinese economic.

But on another note, these Chinese have time, they will try to the area bit by bit for next 10-20 years.

This is no real provocation by the USN IMO. This is an excercise in support of freedom of Navigation rules, period



If anyone remembers on 9/4 when the PRC Premier was visiting the US a flotilla of 5 PLAN ships did the same in Alaska



Chinese Navy Ships Came Within 12 Nautical Miles of U.S. Coast - WSJ

 

[swerve]

Although one could argue that crossing into the 12 mile zone is a provocative act in intself and the question who is forcing who into a corner might be open to debate.

If someone starts building a house in the middle of the road, & putting up signs saying "This is my land", is it provocative to continue driving along it?

China is illegally claiming territory which is not Chinese, according to laws which China demands should be enforced on others, e.g. Japan. There is no 12 mile limit around those artificial islands - & China agrees, in every case where someone else wrongly claims it.

This isn't like Russians flying up to the edge of US or other airspace. Think of having an aggressive neighbour who patrols the edge of your (undisputed, on the land register) land, constantly looking as if he's about to cross it, while watching to see how you respond. Russia! Then think of the above 'house in road' analogy.

 

[s002wjh]

Knowing that fact the US and it's allies in the region should be taking steps to build their own facilities. Say on existing islands. That's the only way.

pretty sure vietnam and PH build their own facilities on their claim land before. but they dont have the $$ and industry capabilities as china, so they can only build few

 

[bobby_77]

I think the Chinese already won the western Pacific

In sun tzu art of war the best victory is not to fight at all. I think in 1997 China already took back Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau, and was ready for 2001, the next century.

I think if the Americans went to help Taiwan the Chinese will be crippling the American Aircraft carriers with cruise missiles and planes. There's no way the Americans can really sustain any real chance of winning. If the Japanese get involved then North Korea backed by China, will start sending missiles into Japan. Then the Americans will probably get mad, and might use nukes against North Korea, and not yet at China. Then China will give green light for North Korea to Nuke Japan, and South Korea.

India is a Rogue Democracy with Nuclear Weapons. India is not part of the UN top 5 nations security council so is not allowed to have Nuclear weapons. So Iraq and Afghanistan is just stupid. So China helped Pakistan with Nukes to guard against India.

I think the Americans will try to get India to Nuclear Strike China first.

The Americans will probably lose every single one of it's Aircraft Cariers in the Western Pacific, so then they will have no choice but to deploy there B1 and B2 Bombers in Guam and Nuke North Korea to try to show strength.

I think China already Won Taiwan with Spies, and Infiltration. Now they are building up there DF21 and Off Shore Island defenses, like how Americans have Hawaii.

I think Columbia means well, but the Americans have to keep telling the public that they can win everything, but it's just stupid...

 

[Blackshoe]

In sun tzu art of war the best victory is not to fight at all. I think in 1997 China already took back Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau, and was ready for 2001, the next century.

I think if the Americans went to help Taiwan the Chinese will be crippling the American Aircraft carriers with cruise missiles and planes. There's no way the Americans can really sustain any real chance of winning. If the Japanese get involved then North Korea backed by China, will start sending missiles into Japan. Then the Americans will probably get mad, and might use nukes against North Korea, and not yet at China. Then China will give green light for North Korea to Nuke Japan, and South Korea.

India is a Rogue Democracy with Nuclear Weapons. India is not part of the UN top 5 nations security council so is not allowed to have Nuclear weapons. So Iraq and Afghanistan is just stupid. So China helped Pakistan with Nukes to guard against India.

I think the Americans will try to get India to Nuclear Strike China first.

The Americans will probably lose every single one of it's Aircraft Cariers in the Western Pacific, so then they will have no choice but to deploy there B1 and B2 Bombers in Guam and Nuke North Korea to try to show strength.

I think China already Won Taiwan with Spies, and Infiltration. Now they are building up there DF21 and Off Shore Island defenses, like how Americans have Hawaii.

I think Columbia means well, but the Americans have to keep telling the public that they can win everything, but it's just stupid...

I read this a couple times.

I'm still confused by it.

Heck of a first post, I'll say.

 

[gazzzwp]

pretty sure vietnam and PH build their own facilities on their claim land before. but they dont have the $$ and industry capabilities as china, so they can only build few

The US and Japan could contribute though surely? Both have significant interests in the region. I would create small airstrips run by the alliance of nations equipped with the usual radar, ASM's, SAM's etc. Just to balance China's force that is certain to be in place on those new reefs.

They need to get ahead for once instead of just being a witness to events as they unfold.

Listening to the response by the Chinese spokesman this morning it is clear that both sides see that this is something they have to win. The Chinese are fighting for what they see as respect due to them, and the US is fighting for freedom of navigation and International rights.

The problem is that the alliance of nations is not likely to respect China under these conditions.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/27/asia/us-china-south-china-sea/index.html

 

[Ranger25]

I read this a couple times.

I'm still confused by it.

Heck of a first post, I'll say.

Me too,

On all accounts