War Against ISIS

[gazzzwp]

You did read me correctly. Coming directly after the President's speech at the UNGA, this is disastrous for the Obama administration. Doubt they'll be able to admit that, even to newspapers in "anonymous administration official" form, but they know it. Or are delusional.

"unless it has a plan up it's sleeve"
I'm fairly confident no such plan exists or has ever existed.

There might actually be one. That is if the US does back off then Russia is exposed to the full weight of the Sunni extremists and the US has the options of who to covertly support.

Another Russian Afghanistan?

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russia officially begins the operation in Syria.

ÐžÐ¿ÐµÑ€Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Сирии началаÑÑŒ - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Su-25s in flight over Syria.

Су-25 в Ñеверной чаÑти ÑирийÑкой Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð¸Ð½Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¥Ð°Ð¼Ð° - Юрий ЛÑмин

Russian ground troops in Syria. Russian MoD sources claim only volunteers will be used in Syria.

РоÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð² Сирии - Военный Блог
Только еÑли Ñами захотÑÑ‚ - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russian MoD releases air footage of the airstrikes. And is already being accused of bombing civilians. Russian MoD called it the information war.

Минобороны выложило видео ударов по позициÑм боевиков в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèþ îáâèíÿþò â áîìáàðäèðîâêàõ ìèðíûõ êâàðòàëîâ â Ñèðèè, ñ÷èòàåò ýòî "èíôîðìàöèîííîé âîéíîé"
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ íàíåñëà ïåðâûå àâèàóäàðû ïî áîåâèêàì "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà" â Ñèðèè

Negotiations between Assad and the opposition continue in Geneva with the intend to sign a peace treaty of sorts.

Ð’ канву ÑегоднÑшних Ñобытий - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

 

[Blackshoe]

Russian ground troops in Syria. Russian MoD sources claim only volunteers will be used in Syria.

Volunteers as in only contraktniki or volunteers as only volunteers from the contraktniki?

 

[STURM]

Doubt this will happen. Backing off would lead not only to a loss of prestige but the Gulf Arabs and countries like Turkey questioning how far they can really rely on the U.S. Backing off would also lead to Russia gaining more influence in the region and making it harder for the West to get rid of Assad.

I suspect that American rhetoric on the need for Assad to leave will continue but at the same time, they will slowly adjust to the fact that he's the one keeping IS at bay and that there is some benefit from the Russians getting involved. For the Gulf Arabs, it's all about weakening Iran. Same reason why they're putting so much effort in Yemen.

 

[Feanor]

Volunteers as in only contraktniki or volunteers as only volunteers from the contraktniki?

Allegedly the latter. Only those contract soldiers that volunteer for the deployment. Which would make sense, if they can find enough.

 

[Blackshoe]

There might actually be one. That is if the US does back off then Russia is exposed to the full weight of the Sunni extremists and the US has the options of who to covertly support.

Another Russian Afghanistan?

That would require far more competence than this administration has ever displayed.

And unlike Afghanistan, the Russians aren't overly concerned about retaining control over the whole country. I think this is going to be a play to start efforts to partition and create a Alawistan in the coastal southwest.

 

[John Fedup]

That would require far more competence than this administration has ever displayed.

And unlike Afghanistan, the Russians aren't overly concerned about retaining control over the whole country. I think this is going to be a play to start efforts to partition and create a Alawistan in the coastal southwest.

That's one likely partition. The other necessary partitions in Iraq will be even harder to achieve.

 

[bdique]

That would require far more competence than this administration has ever displayed.

And unlike Afghanistan, the Russians aren't overly concerned about retaining control over the whole country. I think this is going to be a play to start efforts to partition and create a Alawistan in the coastal southwest.

nfloorl:

On a more serious note, it seems like the Russian attacks were directed at opposition rebels, and not IS forces as claimed. (Link: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/russia-enters-syria-war/2162232.html)

I am not surprised by this development, this is a demonstration of realpolitik at its finest. Perhaps IS is deemed weak enough to be less of a threat to Assad than the rebels?

 

[gf0012-aust]

nfloorl:

On a more serious note, it seems like the Russian attacks were directed at opposition rebels, and not IS forces as claimed. (Link: Russia enters Syria war with air strikes - Channel NewsAsia)

I am not surprised by this development, this is a demonstration of realpolitik at its finest. Perhaps IS is deemed weak enough to be less of a threat to Assad than the rebels?

I'm in a group comprised of ex DoD analysts on FB - according to some of them the russians struck US armed syrian fighters.

 

[RobWilliams]

Wouldn't surprise me, they're just as much if not a larger threat to Assad than IS. Those fighters only have the Syrian AF to contend with, IS have a significantly larger opposition.

Fallon has confirmed Sentinel is to stay as part of Op Shader 'until 2016'.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/sentinel-to-continue-anti-is-ops-until-2016-417222/

It is hoped any decision about the future of Sentinel or the capability as a whole will be made as part of SDSR 2015.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Russians look like they are there for a while because of the assets that they have been moving into their "enclave" and they have every intention of ensuring the survival of Assad. They don't have an issue with Iran, the PRC are reported to become involved militarily at some stage and they also are friendly with Iran. Finally Iran which has been staunchly supporting Assad both overtly and covertly, has forces fighting Daesh in Iraq and sees Syria as a buffer state between it and Israel. I think Iran would also like to have part or all of Iraq as a buffer between it and Saudi Arabia if it possibly could as well.

So is this Russian and Chinese involvement the open act of the establishment of a permanent buffer zone between Iran and its enemies Israel and Saudi Arabia using the cadavres of Syria and Iran? It certainly would help Russian and Chinese initiatives at the moment with the West being caught up in and dragged further into the Daesh situation / Syrian civil war. I'm just looking at a longer possible timeline.

 

[Ranger25]

The Russians look like they are there for a while because of the assets that they have been moving into their "enclave" and they have every intention of ensuring the survival of Assad. They don't have an issue with Iran, the PRC are reported to become involved militarily at some stage and they also are friendly with Iran. Finally Iran which has been staunchly supporting Assad both overtly and covertly, has forces fighting Daesh in Iraq and sees Syria as a buffer state between it and Israel. I think Iran would also like to have part or all of Iraq as a buffer between it and Saudi Arabia if it possibly could as well.

So is this Russian and Chinese involvement the open act of the establishment of a permanent buffer zone between Iran and its enemies Israel and Saudi Arabia using the cadavres of Syria and Iran? It certainly would help Russian and Chinese initiatives at the moment with the West being caught up in and dragged further into the Daesh situation / Syrian civil war. I'm just looking at a longer possible timeline.

I think all of the above

Plus IMO this is VVP securing a port and airfield in the Southern Med furthering his geographic intentions. Plus it further secures his populism on the home front. Every time he outwits the west, especially the American president, he grows stronger with the oligarchs who support him.

Win win for VPP
Secure bases, a good customer, and influence in the ME. It does pit him against the Saudis and and GCC I believe.

 

[KiwiRob]

Doubt this will happen. Backing off would lead not only to a loss of prestige but the Gulf Arabs and countries like Turkey questioning how far they can really rely on the U.S. Backing off would also lead to Russia gaining more influence in the region and making it harder for the West to get rid of Assad.

I suspect that American rhetoric on the need for Assad to leave will continue but at the same time, they will slowly adjust to the fact that he's the one keeping IS at bay and that there is some benefit from the Russians getting involved. For the Gulf Arabs, it's all about weakening Iran. Same reason why they're putting so much effort in Yemen.

The only benefit in removing Assad is if you want to create another Iraq or Libya, do the West really want that?

 

[gazzzwp]

The only benefit in removing Assad is if you want to create another Iraq or Libya, do the West really want that?

The more assertive Russia becomes the weaker the US appears.

Listening to Deborah Lee James (Secretary USAF), there are doubts about the air forces capability to engage 'high end' adversaries. We have US generals repeatedly saying that Russia is now the No1 threat to the US........There are obvious worries about the aging and outdated planes that the US now have.

The US seems to have doubts over it's military equipment and seems more and more in awe of Russian equipment. This does not bode well at all.

In the end Obama has to take the wrap for the loss of prestige that his great nation is now experiencing in the face of Russian resurgence. If China enter the scene and decide to install a force in the region then what will the US do then?

The whole situation looks extremely grave indeed and I worry about the future and security of the West in the light of these developments.

For God sake get Obama out quickly and replace him with a more assertive and charismatic leader.

 

[gazzzwp]

I think all of the above

Plus IMO this is VVP securing a port and airfield in the Southern Med furthering his geographic intentions. Plus it further secures his populism on the home front. Every time he outwits the west, especially the American president, he grows stronger with the oligarchs who support him.

Win win for VPP
Secure bases, a good customer, and influence in the ME. It does pit him against the Saudis and and GCC I believe.

This is extremely serious. Hundreds of Iranian troops entering the region in support of the Russians and Assad.

Iranian troops prepare to aid Russia with Syrian ground assault, officials say | Fox News

Israel are now going to feel extremely vulnerable with Iranians on their border.

Thoughts anyone?

 

[gazzzwp]

In case anyone was in any doubt here is what I believe is an accurate assessment of the situation:

What now? How to deal with the utter collapse of Obama's Syria-Iraq strategy | Fox News

The Russian anti-aircraft assets are in place to warn the coalition; unless the US acts quickly against Russia it will be too late and the next war will be involve Israel.

Netanyahu and Obama have both been hoodwinked.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Netanyahu and Obama have both been hoodwinked.

Netanyahu was powerless to do this on his own...

the greater issue is that people like Kilkullen and Petraeus will be feeling somewhat vindicated (esp Kilkullen) as Obama ignored all their advice 5 years ago.

The Russians knew Obama was strategically and politically feckless.....

 

[gazzzwp]

Netanyahu was powerless to do this on his own...

the greater issue is that people like Kilkullen and Petraeus will be feeling somewhat vindicated (esp Kilkullen) as Obama ignored all their advice 5 years ago.

The Russias knew Obama was strategically and politically feckless.....

Agreed.

We just have to hope that nothing kicks off with the anti-Israel states who no doubt now feel highly emboldened with Russia next door.

If there are silver linings anywhere in this unholy mess, it is that Russia will now learn what the US has already learned that nothing less than a massive and complete military commitment will be enough to deal with the Middle East.

You can be sure that Russia will be dragged in more and more and will be forced to make a much bigger commitment. That will drain their resources at a time when their economy is in poor shape.

The other is that the US will lick it's wounds and hopefully learn that indecisiveness in the end loses all. No doubt it will be stronger for the experience but for now Russia has totally eclipsed the US in strategic terms.

How far will Russia's influence in the region now extend? How will the Saudi's respond to all of this? Could oil supplies be affected with beneficial results to Russia's economy?

 

[Blackshoe]

The only benefit in removing Assad is if you want to create another Iraq or Libya, do the West really want that?

Syria turning into Libya right now would make it much, MUCH better.

Source

Likewise, there is no way to end the war with Assad in power unless you give him back his chemical weaponry and let him go wild with them (which has been successful in ending insurgencies before-see the Italian experience in Libya for further).

 

[Feanor]

In case anyone was in any doubt here is what I believe is an accurate assessment of the situation:

What now? How to deal with the utter collapse of Obama's Syria-Iraq strategy | Fox News

The Russian anti-aircraft assets are in place to warn the coalition; unless the US acts quickly against Russia it will be too late and the next war will be involve Israel.

Netanyahu and Obama have both been hoodwinked.

The words "accurate assessment" followed by a link to Fox News.

Seriously, media like Fox is useless as a source of information. Even the CNN and BBC are barely reliable when it comes to basic facts. Analysis is another story entirely.