there's another arrow in the russians quiver....
ultimately the russians want to maintain their last real footprint in the region - its a geostrategic as well as a military issue
I'd suggest that the Russians will support anyone that they can manage - and if Assads survival politically is unpalatable for them then they will support whoever they can identify as a supporter - Assad will be provided with a new place to spend in exile - be it a Russian enclave, be it Iran - be it wherever is available. Syrian capacity to influence behaviour in Lebanon is still important to them - and important to Iran, so having a "nominal" syrian presence is critical to both countries
at this stage it appears that Assad controls less than 20% of Syria, so the rump and changeover question is rapidly emerging - irrespective of Russian military efforts
OTOH the Saudis and the GCC are more than happy for the Syrians and Iranians to burn money as they can bankroll longer and far more heavily - and they have no concerns about the Russians burning money into something which will also have the potential for radical islamists to have an excuse to ramp up things against the russians on russian soil - hence why I can't see the chinese taking an active role.
and then there are the egyptians and turks.... turkey doesn't want assad in place and certainly doesn't want an iran with idealogically extended borders - (ie not geographical but influenced enough to be Iranian remotely managed)
ultimately to control the enemy you have to be on the ground and have forces prepared to go in and fight a war without the influence of the political "1000km screwdriver" - and the Russians will need to come to the same decision point issue as the west. ie if we are going to deal with this properly do we inject our ground forces so as shift the tipping point properly"
ultimately the russians want to maintain their last real footprint in the region - its a geostrategic as well as a military issue
I'd suggest that the Russians will support anyone that they can manage - and if Assads survival politically is unpalatable for them then they will support whoever they can identify as a supporter - Assad will be provided with a new place to spend in exile - be it a Russian enclave, be it Iran - be it wherever is available. Syrian capacity to influence behaviour in Lebanon is still important to them - and important to Iran, so having a "nominal" syrian presence is critical to both countries
at this stage it appears that Assad controls less than 20% of Syria, so the rump and changeover question is rapidly emerging - irrespective of Russian military efforts
OTOH the Saudis and the GCC are more than happy for the Syrians and Iranians to burn money as they can bankroll longer and far more heavily - and they have no concerns about the Russians burning money into something which will also have the potential for radical islamists to have an excuse to ramp up things against the russians on russian soil - hence why I can't see the chinese taking an active role.
and then there are the egyptians and turks.... turkey doesn't want assad in place and certainly doesn't want an iran with idealogically extended borders - (ie not geographical but influenced enough to be Iranian remotely managed)
ultimately to control the enemy you have to be on the ground and have forces prepared to go in and fight a war without the influence of the political "1000km screwdriver" - and the Russians will need to come to the same decision point issue as the west. ie if we are going to deal with this properly do we inject our ground forces so as shift the tipping point properly"