substantiated
9 x T-90 tanks
500+ marines
2,000 troops at Latakia
+ aviation ie Frogfoots etc
4 x SU30
12 Frogfoots
26 x BTR
6 x MBT
increasing
+ the chinese contingent which the egyptians just cleared through the suez
War Against ISIS
- Thread starter spikehades
- Start date
9 x T-90 tanks
500+ marines
2,000 troops at Latakia
+ aviation ie Frogfoots etc
4 x SU30
12 Frogfoots
26 x BTR
6 x MBT
increasing
+ the chinese contingent which the egyptians just cleared through the suez
Thanks. Meanwhile info keeps coming in.
An Il-18-based aircraft has been allegedly deployed yo Syria. The source claims an Il-20 specifically, but it's often hard to tell the difference.
And Russian troops have allegedly participated in ground combat around Kweiris together with the Syrians. But the source is DEBKA, so...
ОпÑÑ‚ÑŒ ÑƒÐºÑƒÑ€ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð´ÐµÐ²ÐºÐ°. Ð’ ÑмыÑле - DEBKA... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата
There are also unverified claims that Ukrainian rebel commander Motorola either has been or still is in Syria. There is no reliable confirmation, and it would make little sense to send Ukrainian rebels to Syria, but given that quite a few of the "rebels" are actually professionals who travel around various conflicts (mercenaries and war junkies), it could be possible that some of those types of personnel are used as unofficial instructors or even fighters and commanders for the Syrians.
ÑÌÈ îòïðàâèëè áîåâèêà Ìîòîðîëó â Ñèðèþ - Íîâîñòè äíÿ
I find it weird that the Assad regime still has not secured Damascus and its suburbs. The maps of the conflict are very confusing and so are the relations between all the rebel factions. It truly is chaotic.
Maybe with the russian deployment some manpower will be freed up for some offensives?
Maybe with the russian deployment some manpower will be freed up for some offensives?
Updates.
Combat footage by TV channel Rossiya of the fighting in Harasty, near Damascus. Syrian special forces and some militias are fighting.
Бои в ХараÑте - Юрий ЛÑмин
Su-34s arrive in Syria. Quantities are unclear, they may deploy a wing of 4 like with the Su-30SMs for combat evaluation and testing, or a full squadron like they did with the older Su-24s and Su-25s. Technically the Su-34 was already used in combat, at least twice (once in 888 to deliver EW and once in 2011 to bomb insurgents in the North Caucus). But this would be it's real debut, since the last two were individual and isolated occurrences.
The photo is one landing in Latakia.
Су-34 в Сирии - Военный Блог
France enters the war in Syria, with Rafales carrying out airstrikes against Islamist terrorists.
И Ð¤Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñ†Ð¸Ñ - Берлога Бронемедведа
There is evidence that Russia is working on building a full scale Naval base in Syria.
Ðе только ÐБ но и ВМБ - Берлога Бронемедведа
The Chinese officially deny any intent to get involved in Syria. But then again Putin recently denied Russian participation in combat too. So...
Китай не будет учаÑтвовать в ÑирийÑкой войне - Военный Блог
CNN says Russian combat aircraft over Syria fly with their transponders turned off, to avoid detection. Though we should consider the airspace control assets Israel has, as well as western Navies in the area. Turning off the transponders is likelier to work against civilian observers, thus masking Russian action with the tacit consent of the other major players.
Коварно тайно летают - Берлога Бронемедведа
Israel conducts air and artillery strikes against the Brigade 90 base in Syria, after taking rocket artillery fire from there.
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èçðàèëüñêàÿ àðòèëëåðèÿ îáñòðåëÿëà ñèðèéñêèå âîéñêà ó Ãîëàíñêèõ âûñîò
Израиль возможно Ð½Ð°Ð½Ñ‘Ñ Ð¾Ñ‡ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ´Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ авиаудар по базе 90 бригады армии аль-ÐÑÑада в Сирии - Военный Блог
Putin predictably says, in an interview, that Russia is not participating in combat in Syria and has no plans to do so.
Ожидаемо - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ íå ïëàíèðóåò ó÷àñòâîâàòü â âîåííûõ äåéñòâèÿõ íà òåððèòîðèè Ñèðèè, çàâåðèëóòèí
Yet another 2 Russian MoD Tu-154s begin flights to Syria.
Третий Ту-154 в Сирию . RA-85563 (Ñкриншот) - Ðвиаголоволомки
http://mil-avia.livejournal.com/122435.html
British AWM sniper rifles have been seen in the hands of Syrian special forces.
Oryx Blog: Syrian Special Forces spotted with British Accuracy International AWM sniper rifles
Combat footage by TV channel Rossiya of the fighting in Harasty, near Damascus. Syrian special forces and some militias are fighting.
Бои в ХараÑте - Юрий ЛÑмин
Su-34s arrive in Syria. Quantities are unclear, they may deploy a wing of 4 like with the Su-30SMs for combat evaluation and testing, or a full squadron like they did with the older Su-24s and Su-25s. Technically the Su-34 was already used in combat, at least twice (once in 888 to deliver EW and once in 2011 to bomb insurgents in the North Caucus). But this would be it's real debut, since the last two were individual and isolated occurrences.
The photo is one landing in Latakia.
Су-34 в Сирии - Военный Блог
France enters the war in Syria, with Rafales carrying out airstrikes against Islamist terrorists.
И Ð¤Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñ†Ð¸Ñ - Берлога Бронемедведа
There is evidence that Russia is working on building a full scale Naval base in Syria.
Ðе только ÐБ но и ВМБ - Берлога Бронемедведа
The Chinese officially deny any intent to get involved in Syria. But then again Putin recently denied Russian participation in combat too. So...
Китай не будет учаÑтвовать в ÑирийÑкой войне - Военный Блог
CNN says Russian combat aircraft over Syria fly with their transponders turned off, to avoid detection. Though we should consider the airspace control assets Israel has, as well as western Navies in the area. Turning off the transponders is likelier to work against civilian observers, thus masking Russian action with the tacit consent of the other major players.
Коварно тайно летают - Берлога Бронемедведа
Israel conducts air and artillery strikes against the Brigade 90 base in Syria, after taking rocket artillery fire from there.
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èçðàèëüñêàÿ àðòèëëåðèÿ îáñòðåëÿëà ñèðèéñêèå âîéñêà ó Ãîëàíñêèõ âûñîò
Израиль возможно Ð½Ð°Ð½Ñ‘Ñ Ð¾Ñ‡ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ´Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ авиаудар по базе 90 бригады армии аль-ÐÑÑада в Сирии - Военный Блог
Putin predictably says, in an interview, that Russia is not participating in combat in Syria and has no plans to do so.
Ожидаемо - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ íå ïëàíèðóåò ó÷àñòâîâàòü â âîåííûõ äåéñòâèÿõ íà òåððèòîðèè Ñèðèè, çàâåðèëóòèí
Yet another 2 Russian MoD Tu-154s begin flights to Syria.
Третий Ту-154 в Сирию . RA-85563 (Ñкриншот) - Ðвиаголоволомки
http://mil-avia.livejournal.com/122435.html
British AWM sniper rifles have been seen in the hands of Syrian special forces.
Oryx Blog: Syrian Special Forces spotted with British Accuracy International AWM sniper rifles
Nick underscore
Member
Feanor - is the Russian naval expansion the port of Tartus?
Many cynics (incl. Gen. Breedlove) are now looking at the unfolding deployment of certain Russina forces in Syria, as an opportunistic play by the RF to create (another) permanent A2/AD bubble.
I personally believe there is some merit in this view, when considering the deployment of Panstir S1
Many cynics (incl. Gen. Breedlove) are now looking at the unfolding deployment of certain Russina forces in Syria, as an opportunistic play by the RF to create (another) permanent A2/AD bubble.
I personally believe there is some merit in this view, when considering the deployment of Panstir S1
gazzzwp
Member
OK I'm compelled to ask. Why do the Russians need advanced SAM and anti-aircraft equipment in Syria? ISIL do not have air based assets and neither do the rebels.
Are they expecting trouble from other forces?
its a warning layer to the west....
- beware of accidental overflights
- and I can stick whatever I want in to Syria and you can't
2007yellow430
Active Member
Don't those systems defend against cruise missiles and artillery also? Are the rebels using cruise missiles and artillery yet?
Art
They can if the other sensors are on site - am not sure what is in place at the overall regional force protection level yet - Feanor might have a better idea
at this point I'd argue that the greater symbolism is weighted around my brief dot points a few posts back.
there is no latent air threat - there is no latent cruise missile threat - and any cavalry or arty would be dealt with fairly quickly by extant russian air such as the frogfoots.
the more interesting issues will be whether the russians have been reprogramming satellite runs over the region - and whether the frequency of runs has gone up.
true to some extent - but at this stage where there is no latent threat needed to counter and to manage force protection - there are a whole pile of other things that could come in first if its a defensive rump - etc.... where is there any intelligence that shows that Daesh have acquired the capability..... eg as soon as its discovered that they have overrun air force facilities and missile facilities then all platforms and assets at that base will be destroyed immediately - I'd predict an aggressive reaction within hours of an overrun
all smacks of a degree of permanency to me....
convention is to secure the ground, bring in base protection via progressively heavier ground forces, then start bringing in GBAD etc... but the russians aren't running daily overflights which is part of the base protection strategy in a build up
nothing is conventional here except that the russians are prepared to put men on the ground even if they are "trainers" en masse.
the west has been loathe to do that because it adds another layer - and one of them is that having men on the ground becomes a magnet for Daesh to focus on.... at some stage Daesh will see russian ground troop formations as the new honeypot to attack (which I also suspect the russians are happy to accomodate).
boots on the ground causes a counter response. witness any modern conflict including korea, vietnam (provinces) iraq, afghanistan, chechnya, georgia, crimea, konfrontassi etc etc etc.....
on another note, the saudis via Adel Al-Jubeir are saying that assad has to go or he will be removed by force...
I guess the saudis are gearing up for a ground war (/joke off)
I guess the saudis are gearing up for a ground war (/joke off)
displacedjim
New Member
Well, perhaps doing their usual gearing up for someone to fight their ground war for them?
From military-informant.com :
BM 30 Smerch multiple rocket launchers have been spotted in Qerdaha, Northern Syria. Unclear as to who is manning them, but they have not been to be in the Syrian arsenal previously.
Whilst Putin said at the UN that a Russian ground operation in Syria is unlikely, I don't think it can be ruled out. After all, some of the criticism of Western air campaign against ISIS revolved around the difficulty of bombing a highly mobile enemy with no permanent bases and without a long logistics tale.
BM 30 Smerch multiple rocket launchers have been spotted in Qerdaha, Northern Syria. Unclear as to who is manning them, but they have not been to be in the Syrian arsenal previously.
Whilst Putin said at the UN that a Russian ground operation in Syria is unlikely, I don't think it can be ruled out. After all, some of the criticism of Western air campaign against ISIS revolved around the difficulty of bombing a highly mobile enemy with no permanent bases and without a long logistics tale.
images make things clearer - as its important to see what the supporting assets and attendant vehicles are. that lets you work out what is actually in place. otherwise a truck is just a truck - a rocket is just an ornament to dissuade rather than to deter, destroy
its not easy.,...
force co-operation requires more than agreements... it requires demarcation, it requires sympathetic comms between disparate forces etc....
I think the possibility of isis having cruise missiles is remote. I think the russian anti air in Latakia is meant as both the defence and a statement of discouragement of the Lybian scenario in the Alawite stronghold which would be Alawites' last refuge. This interpretation would be in harmony with recent speeches at the UN GA.
Why would the US not send trainers to Syria? Who could the US possibly send trainers to? Assad? ISIS? Al'Nusra? Other Al'Qaeda derived groups? Kurds with whom our NATO ally Turkey is at war? Or perhaps the FSA to help instruct all 5 of their members?
Absolutely, and that is probably the Achilles heel of the Russian military. I would imagine that Serdykov reforms have helped but nonetheless, we are yet to see how different branches of the Russian military cooperate with each other and with other military formations in hostile terrain. I might be wrong, but flawless as the operation in Crimea was, insofar as it lacked an 'enemy' ready to hold his ground, the Russians are yet to prove their capacity for complex operations on foreign soil.
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They have been known previously, albeit indirectly (since last year). They're used by Syrian military personnel. Oryx blog (the second link) had an entry dealing with the BM-30s in Syria, as well as the BM-27s. Note the date on the post.
СирийÑкий "Смерч" - Юрий ЛÑмин
Oryx Blog: Syria's BM-30 Smerchs, emerging from the shadows
I'll make a bigger update post when I get home.
I'm not sure. But the KIL-158 is a vessel designed for work on harbor installations, and it's headed to Syria again.
Nothing opportunistic about it. It's a strategy Russia is employing in many places, including the Arctic, Kuril islands, Crimea, and now Syria. They've been looking for a Mediterranean base for a long time, and had conversations on the subject with Cyprus, Egypt, and Syria in the past. It's a consistent and long term part of Russian military and geo-political strategy.
SA-22s have intercepted actual Russian cruise missiles with (from what I know) not outside sensors involved, just using their own. The most interesting trials were a launch from an unknown direction and distance, where the SA-22s conducted a march to a random location, and then set up for the intercept. The cruise missile was fired through their engagement envelope, but they didn't know the time, direction or range from which it was fired. They successfully intercepted the target. Granted they had 2 SA-22s and only one cruise missile, and Russian cruise missile tech is certainly lagging compared to some of the more cutting edge stuff in the west, but these results are still significant.
Now it's my understanding that they have deployed either an S-300PM or S-400 btln, plus a number of Pantsyr-1s. Both have anti-cruise missile capabilities, and significant anti-aircraft capabilities. So while the west certainly can take these assets out, it would require a considerable effort. Unlike say Assads own assets which, while relatively modern (Buk-M2 and those same Pantsyrs) are not as well prepared or supported. There's also a good chance that EW gear is on the ground in some form. The Russian military used EW and ELINT assets extensively in Ukraine at every level from the tactical to the strategic. I wouldn't be surprised if they're listening in to rebel comms, and will use that to coordinate air strikes.
I suspect that they may take over the Syrian air defense assets and tie them together with the Russian ones into a single network. Which could potentially be quite formidable, especially if we're only talking about the small provinces around Tartus and Latakia.
There are strong indications that they have been and it has. They're also providing sat-intel to the Syrians which they did not in the past.
Given what's going on in Saudi Arabia right now, maybe the Saudi monarch has to go?
Israeli and western air strikes are a pretty latent threat, especially if Russian troops are embedded with the Syrians organically, making it hard to hit one without hitting the other.
Daily overflights, as in satellites?
Well it depends. Decisive overwhelming force with clear short and medium term goals is one thing, indecisive and underwhelming force commitments with only vague long term goals is another. This smacks of the latter. Georgia is an example of the former.
my prev was around the issue that the first thing you go for if you're anticipating an attack or that the attack is latent, you take out the launchers, supporting comms, supporting assets... ie degrade, deter, destroy the capacity for them to do it again.
it would be interesting to see how many have been repositioned and how often they're running racetracks... ie degree of overlap by "follow ons" etc....
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I was assuming sats had gone up,. I was referring more to overt manned air for messaging ability and intent etc....