War Against ISIS

[stojo]

And some commentators are saying that the BTR-82 in the video is Russian Army. There are claims that some of the yelling in the video is in Russia. To be honest I didn't make any of it out clearly enough, but here it is. To me more convincing is the paintjob and tactical number on the vehicle. There's also the use of Russian UAVs in Syria (two were downed earlier). It remains to be seen what's actually happening, but I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is stepping up direct involvement through military "advisers". They have a long history of doing this during the Cold War.

Oryx Blog: New evidence proves Russian military directly engaging in Syrian Civil War

RT reported that the Russian airforce officials denied the deployment of airplanes. So it seems that the info I quoted was wrong.

However, no one denied the rest of the article, so it seems you are right about "advisers" etc...

 

[Feanor]

RT reported that the Russian airforce officials denied the deployment of airplanes. So it seems that the info I quoted was wrong.

However, no one denied the rest of the article, so it seems you are right about "advisers" etc...

And yet. Looks like an Su-27... though it could be something else. Just too hard to tell. Those UAVs sure look interesting.

В небе Сирии - Военный Блог

 

[stojo]

And yet. Looks like an Su-27... though it could be something else. Just too hard to tell. Those UAVs sure look interesting.

В небе Сирии - Военный Блог

Kaboom... So, the evidence is mounting, now the question is what kind of troops are they deploying, what is their role etc.... I don't expect we will soon have the official answers, especially bearing in mind the peculiar silence of Western politicians on this topic.

I think Pentagon stated that they are "investigating these reports". It is hard to believe, however, that they don't know exactly what are Russians doing down there.

 

[John Fedup]

Kaboom... So, the evidence is mounting, now the question is what kind of troops are they deploying, what is their role etc.... I don't expect we will soon have the official answers, especially bearing in mind the peculiar silence of Western politicians on this topic.

I think Pentagon stated that they are "investigating these reports". It is hard to believe, however, that they don't know exactly what are Russians doing down there.

If they are shoring up Assad then that is probably the best option considering the alternative. The West just doesn't want to admit that the "Arab Spring" was a total disaster.

 

[Feanor]

Kaboom... So, the evidence is mounting, now the question is what kind of troops are they deploying, what is their role etc.... I don't expect we will soon have the official answers, especially bearing in mind the peculiar silence of Western politicians on this topic.

I think Pentagon stated that they are "investigating these reports". It is hard to believe, however, that they don't know exactly what are Russians doing down there.

Yeah, honestly this is something they could do openly. I don't see much international opposition to Russia joining the fight against ISIS with boots on the ground. Anyways, the latest Syrian express carrying more stuff on the deck, under cammie netting. Maybe more Russian Army units. It would be interesting to know just what kind of deployment they can sustain there.

РоÑÑийÑкие военные поÑтавки в Сирию - Военный Блог

 

[Feanor]

Thanks to Mr. Ruslan Leviev, we have a clearer picture of Russian deployments to Syria. Here's his investigation, in English. A Russian-language version is also available. I'll post the conclusion here, you can follow the link for the full article.

Final conclusion


Since 1971, Russia has had a naval depot in Tartus, Syria (once again, not a naval base), Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the depot hasn't been particularly important. Russian vessels visited it for service from time to time. The depot was manned by a total of four Russian servicemen. In 2010, Russian government pondered over turning the depot into a full-blown naval base, but in 2011, Arab Spring and Syrian civil war happened. To be on the safe side, in 2013 all the Russian staff, including civilians, was evacuated from the depot. Later, in comments to the press, Russia's deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that the depot had no strategic or military importance and all the Russian servicemen and civilian staff had been evacuated to Russia to avoid risks to their lives and escalating the conflict. Among the evacuees there also were military advisors.

In spring 2015, government troops suffer huge defeats close to Latakia, losing Idlib in March and Jisr al-Shughur in April. Latakia is strategically important for Assad: this is Syria's largest port, and close to it there is an international airport/airbase, where both Russian humanitarian aid and military hardware have been unloaded. To the south of the airbase there's Tartus, housing Russia's naval depot.

Due to this threat, a quick shift of Kremlin strategy occurs: the Tartus depot suddenly becomes important for Russia once again, talks are renewed of turning it into a bona fide naval base, Tartus sees an influx of military vehicles and Russian soldiers. The Tartus depot used to house but 4 Russian seamen servicing it. Now it has hundreds of soldiers and heavy vehicles.

In late August, fighting close to Latakia goes on. Combat footage captures a Russian-made BTR-82A with a color scheme and number characteristic of Russian military units. As the APC is shooting, we can hear orders to the gunner in Russian. Several days later, in Western Idlib governorate, Jabhaat al Nusra (Al Qaeda) spot a Russian Pchela-1T UAV. 3 fighter jets are also spotted there, believed by many to be Russian.

Meanwhile, posts appear on social networks about contract soldiers being sent to Tartus (while in early 2015 draftees went to Tartus as well) for long periods from 3 to 8 months.

Based on all of the above, our team believes that currently Russian marines have been moved to Syria to guard and strengthen the Tartus depot as well as the airbase close to Latakia. We believe infantry does not take part in the fighting. However, we believe that Russian vehicles with Russian crews do go into battle. Support is also rendered at least by Russian UAVs.

Are there Russian troops in Syria?: ruslanleviev

You will note that he doesn't seem to be aware of the shoot-down of Russian Eleron-3 and (presumably) Orion-10 UAVs over Syria, which are a far more credible proof of Russian presence then the venerable Pchela.

 

[Feanor]

And more news. Albeit still of the fuzzy variety. A Russian An-124 just landed in Latakiya. Cargo unknown, but it seems that they just don't have enough BDKs to get the cargo through. Recently the ferry normally used to move trucks and cars from mainland Russia to Crimea has been spotted carrying military equipment through the Bosphorus to Syria.

Ðн-124 летит в Латакию - bmpd
Боевой паром - Военный Блог

According to some media reports a Russian military base is being built in Latakia, and a limited contingent of Russian troops is being deployed there.

Сюжет : Ограниченный военный контингент РоÑÑии прибыл в Сирию | Военный информатор
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-05/putin-confirms-scope-russian-military-role-syria

Photos of Russian marines and sailors in Syria.

Будни на роÑÑийÑкой военно-морÑкой базе в ТартуÑе, Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ñ - mikael655

Meanwhile both in a conversation with Kerry, and in general, the Russian government denies involvement of Russian soldiers in the fighting. No denial of Russian military presence in principle, though the air force did recently at one point deny participation in air strikes in Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÌÈÄ ÐÔ îïðîâåðã ñëóõè î ðîññèéñêèõ ñîëäàòàõ, âîþþùèõ â Ñèðèè íà ñòîðîíå ðåæèìà Àñàäà
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êåððè ïîçâîíèë Ëàâðîâó óçíàòü î ðîññèéñêèõ âîåííûõ â Ñèðèè

 

[Blackshoe]

The fact that the Russians are inserting themselves so publicly into this means things must be going really badly for al-Assad.

Which surprises me, since the war had fallen into a stalemate based off my last impression.

 

[gf0012-aust]

The fact that the Russians are inserting themselves so publicly into this means things must be going really badly for al-Assad.

Which surprises me, since the war had fallen into a stalemate based off my last impression.

the Syrians have just lost their last oil field

the predictions are total collapse/loss within a month.

it may well be what is driving the rapid shift by the russians

 

[Feanor]

The fact that the Russians are inserting themselves so publicly into this means things must be going really badly for al-Assad.

Which surprises me, since the war had fallen into a stalemate based off my last impression.

Assad has been losing position by position, slowly but surely. It's possible that the deployments to Latakia and beefing up the presence in Tartus are an attempt to Give Assad a final life of defense in the coastal provinces, with the Russian military as added insurance, and a maritime/airborne lifeline to Russia replacing the oil-fields as a source of means to keep fighting.

EDIT: It seems that there are two main air corridors into Syria. To Damascus they fly through Iran and Iraq, to Latakia they fly through Bulgaria, Greece, and Cyprus. A VVS Il-62M recently also landed in Latakia.

Ещё один в Сирию . Ðа Ñтот раз Ил-62Ðœ (Ñкриншот ) - Ðвиаголоволомки
ИранÑким маршрутом - Военный Блог

Also unconfirmed claims floating around that Lavrov told Kerry that Russian aircraft would be re-based to Syria to join the mission against ISIS.

Рне побомбить ли нам Сирию - Военный Блог

 

[Hone C]

"the predictions are total collapse/loss within a month."

Collapse of the Syrian government forces or the removal of al-Assad himself?

While a transition of power to another group within the Baath party or Alawite community is looking increasingly likely, I'm less certain of a complete collapse.

During the first year of this conflict there were a number of reports by the media and political figures suggesting Assad had only a couple of months left. Divisions between the rebels (and their sponsors) and the loyalty of most of the minority groups to the regime have resulted in a protracted conflict. What has changed?

The Alawites are facing an existential threat from the Sunni majority and won't go down easily. Although the army is fatigued and has been losing ground they still control the coastal region, with good defensive positions in the Latakia mountains, and the corridor through Homs to Damascus; although the position in and around Aleppo is looking shaky.

Iran will continue to support Assad because a Sunni dominated Syria would reduce their influence in the Levant and make it harder to provide support to Hezbollah. Thanks to the recent deal they're going to have a lot more cash to bring to the party.

Russia will shore up the government (for now) to safeguard it's regional interests, making sure it has to be consulted on any negotiations for a future post-Assad Syria, so that it can leverage it's influence onto issues closer to home. The weaker the regime, the less Russia's bargaining power, but it won't commit so many troops as to undermine it's position with any future government (and because it probably can't really afford it either). Russian involvement (and the Western attempts to stop or reduce it) should be seen in the context of the worsening conflict between Russia and the US.

This support can't really change the fatigue or manpower shortage facing the army, and Assad's time is probably numbered as those around him see the clock ticking. He'll have to go as the price for any future settlement, but I have my doubts about an imminent collapse.

Time will tell I suppose. Thanks for all the interesting info and perspectives.

 

[gf0012-aust]

the syrians have just lost their first air base, and an army base is probably close to being lost as well within 72 hrs

 

[Nick underscore]

I think this is their 3rd 'major' military AB lost to either ISIL or the Al Nusra Front - Taftanaz AB (one of the main rotary), Tabqa AB and now the Abu al-Duhur AB.

The recent increase in Russian military involvement is hardly surprising in my opinion and I'm sure more 'advisors' and equipement will follow-on, from what has already been posted by Feanor. The strategic importance of the port of Tartus to Russia, can't be underestimated.

 

[Feanor]

I think this is their 3rd 'major' military AB lost to either ISIL or the Al Nusra Front - Taftanaz AB (one of the main rotary), Tabqa AB and now the Abu al-Duhur AB.

The recent increase in Russian military involvement is hardly surprising in my opinion and I'm sure more 'advisors' and equipement will follow-on, from what has already been posted by Feanor. The strategic importance of the port of Tartus to Russia, can't be underestimated.

If the information I have is correct, then Russia will get a second base near Latakia, that may also include port access, or even an airstrip.

In the meantime Bulgaria has closed their airspace to Russian flights, however they're still flying in, just through Iran and Iraq. Another An-124, and an Il-76 from Pskov.

Ðн-124 RA-82035 вчера вечером прилетел в ПÑков , а ÑÐµÐ³Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ ÑƒÐ¶Ðµ в Сирии (запиÑÑŒ) - Ðвиаголоволомки
Ð‘Ð¾Ð»Ð³Ð°Ñ€Ð¸Ñ Ð·Ð°ÐºÑ€Ñ‹Ð»Ð°ÑÑŒ. Будем летать через Иран-Ирак - Ðвиаголоволомки
РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð²Ñ‹Ð½ÑƒÐ¶Ð´ÐµÐ½Ð° изменить маршруты полета военных Ñамолетов в Сирию | Военный информатор

Confirmation on the fall of the Idlib airbase and the last oil field.

Ðефти больше нет - Военный Бло[url=http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/1073018.html]ÐаÑтупление иÑламиÑтов в Сирии - Военный Блог
ИÑламиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ ведут активное наÑтупление на позиции ÑирийÑких войÑк | Военный информатор

 

[gf0012-aust]

I think this is their 3rd 'major' military AB lost to either ISIL or the Al Nusra Front - Taftanaz AB (one of the main rotary), Tabqa AB and now the Abu al-Duhur AB.

The recent increase in Russian military involvement is hardly surprising in my opinion and I'm sure more 'advisors' and equipement will follow-on, from what has already been posted by Feanor. The strategic importance of the port of Tartus to Russia, can't be underestimated.

I think the difference with this one is that it has been under sustained attack for almost 2 years - and the army who had carriage of protecting it have done a "fighting withdrawl" to the nearby army base

the other bases (as I understand it) were not colocated and harder to protect

 

[Feanor]

Meanwhile, Iraqi soldiers arrive in Syria to protect Damascus.

ИракÑкие военноÑлужащие в Сирии - Военный Блог

Personally I think it's time to admit reality. A single anti-ISIS coalition is necessary. Preferably under joint command.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Russians have established or are in the process of establishing 2 large bases. 1 x coastal and 1 x inland.

 

[Feanor]

Russians have established or are in the process of establishing 2 large bases. 1 x coastal and 1 x inland.

Is this in addition to Tartus? Because while it's technically a "depot", the permanent presence of Russian Marines there and infrastructural improvements would make it a base at this point in time.

And the two bases, is one of them the SAR airstrip near Latakia? And the other that village (name starts with a D), 25kms south of Latakia?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Is this in addition to Tartus? Because while it's technically a "depot", the permanent presence of Russian Marines there and infrastructural improvements would make it a base at this point in time.

And the two bases, is one of them the SAR airstrip near Latakia? And the other that village (name starts with a D), 25kms south of Latakia?

my understanding - yes and yes

both are extant depots converting to bases. one for logistics and forwarding on to inland

 

[Feanor]

my understanding - yes and yes

both are extant depots converting to bases. one for logistics and forwarding on to inland

So this makes for 3 total bases, two of them coastal.

I know they've been flying heavy and super heavy cargo haulers, as well as government passenger flights in and out. And apparently the number of Syrian express deliveries to Syria spiked as early as June, just went un-noticed. Maritime shipping brought 4500 tonns of cargo in June, 3000 in July, and 4000 in August (potentially, this is the capacity of the vessels used). Also the Black Sea Fleet support vessel Kil-158 has joined the Syrian express together with the civilian ferry.

«Увеличение активноÑти «СирийÑкого ÑкÑпреÑÑа»» в блоге «ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ Флот» - Сделано у наÑ

Detailed article on the fall of Abu-ad-Duhor airbase.

Oryx Blog: The fall of Abu ad-Duhor airbase, the Civil War's longest siege comes to an end

Also Ahrār ash-Shām, another anti-Assad Islamic group, is using the sandstorm as cover to move into Idlib province and get ready for a new offensive against the SAR. The convoys are looking more and more army-like, with the tanks carried on transporter trailers.

ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ÑламиÑтов - Военный Блог

It's important to note that this group is also fighting in Latakia province.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/4492126.html

Finally the Russian government says that they have always supplied weapons, advisers, and technical staff to Syria and that this is not news, claiming that nothing else was going on. Yet.

They also said that further steps to aid Assad against terrorists would be considered in due time, and with due regard to Russian and international law.

Russia will also be holding live-fire naval exercises in the Mediterranean near Tartus, and has notified airlines. I think this is a symbolic and significant gesture intended to demonstrate that Russia is here to help Assad, and to potentially deter the US-led coalition from striking SAR positions in their bombing campaign.

Текущее по нашим военным в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Among weapons Russia is supplying Assad, they list Ural trucks, APCs, small arms and RPGs. And other weapon needed for counter-terrorist operations.

http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/2809191.html
http://www.newsru.com/russia/10sep2015/tosyria.html