South China Sea News & Discussions, incl Spratly Islands News

Status
Not open for further replies.

gazzzwp

Member
It's too simplistic to convey the impression that China is the bad guy and that the other, weaker and smaller claimants, along with the U.S. are the good guys. We may not agree with what China is doing but like others, it has legitimate reasons for doing what it's doing and there is some elements of truth when China screams of double standards and hypocrisy on the part of the U.S. We can only hope that diplomacy will eventually lead to a solution to this dispute.
Why not just regard the whole area as international water? Or agree say a 250 mile boundary from all sovereign nations as belonging to that nation?

For China to declare the whole SCS as theirs is preposterous and fails on all moral and historical grounds. I see no sympathy due to China on this issue.
 

gazzzwp

Member
There was a theory put forward to me by a defence writer a few years ago that doesn't sound very far fetched.

According to the theory, what China badly desires is for the other claimants to first acknowledge China's new status as an economic and military power and to stop (this would include Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam) being 'influenced" by the U.S. and Japan (to China the U.S. and Japan are meddling in matters that don't concern them). China believes that if it wasn't for other claimants being influenced by "outsiders", the issue would have long been resolved and everyone would have gained something (naturally China will gain the most).
No one should have to bow prostrate to any emerging super power. It's degrading and primitive; like 'paying homage' to Rome.

Pay homage to the all great China and then we will stop bullying the weaker players. Really?

After this is done and after the other claimants completely cease all actions that are deemed "provocative" and "disrespectful", they will be rewarded. The rewards would include being allowed to keep the reefs they currently hold, joint oil and gas exploration with China and increased trade and investment from China. Despite its actions and strings words, the Chinese realised that some concessions will have to be made. Naturally, China will be the dominant partner in this arrangement and the other smaller and weaker claimants will have to "behave".

This year's Shang-rila dialogue will be held soon. Will be interesting to see what various countries have to say about recent events in the Spratlys.
Thank God they have the US to defend them then that's all I can say. These nations deserve respect and dignity. If it takes the US to safeguard that right then so be it.
 

gazzzwp

Member
That theory makes sense. It's Chinas version of America's "Monroe Doctrine" that kept the Europeans out of South America. Even Australia has its Pacific "backyard".
The US has a less than rosy relationship with some of its southern neighbours.

International Law only exists while the major powers see value in them and are willing to play nice. The League of Nations was a big deal back in its day too.
Using history as a precedent for the present is a huge mistake. Do we really want to keep repeating the errors of the past? Should the human race not be moving on and evolving new ethics and principles? You decide.
 

Alkyonios

New Member
South China Sea thoughts?

The Chinese perspective is simple. Their view is that the South China Sea is an integral part of Chinese territory from time immemorial and everyone else is trespassing.

There is no such thing as other claimants, because there is no claim. The South China Sea is as much part of China as Beijing is part of China. Mind you, the South China Sea is not Chinese EEZ. It is China's "blue" homeland. Their internal rhetoric is very consistent on this and is accepted without question by the Chinese (if any Chinese academics disagree, they know better than to say it).

Given this baseline, any action that is not silent acquiescence can easily be spun as provocative and aggressive. What matters is not the actual action, but whether the Party sees the corresponding nation as a friend or not.

For example, some three years ago I saw a series of TV programs covering the South China Seas. As part of the show a Chinese Marine Surveillance ship was shown proudly and bravely rescuing Chinese fishermen from a "foreign warship". The problem is that the coordinates shown corresponds to the Indonesian EEZ. This is not the CCTV mistakenly putting the wrong numbers, because the coordinates were shown on the CMS ship's navigation screen. The foreign warship has had its flag blurred out, but from the silhouette someone said it was an Indonesian navy ship.

A warship threatening your fishermen is normally a big deal. The Indonesian Navy ship was probably going to arrest the Chinese fishermen for poaching, but if China says the SCS is their integral territory (listen to what the Chinese officers say, their warnings consistently say "Chinese territory", unlike the Chinese diplomats who still keep things vague), then it would have been a foreign military entering sovereign territory to kidnap one's citizens. This ought to be a big diplomatic mess. But nope, barely anyone ever heard about it. I don't claim to know why, but I speculate that it is because China sees Indonesia as a friendly nation.

Contrast that to the Philippines taking the issue to UN arbitration. No warship involved. No lives involved. It doesn't seek to establish who owns the area, merely to establish that the islands in question are rocks that can not naturally sustain people and thus can't generate EEZ. This does not even conflict with China's own claim, since China does not base the Nine Dash Lines on the rocks but rather states that the Nine Dash Line is Chinese territory, period. No justification given because none is needed. And yet the filing of the arbitration is considered highly provocative.

While hypothetically some action is obviously aggressive and provocative (e.g., actual shooting), it's impossible to determine what action is unquestionably non-provocative and non-aggressive because China can always choose to view it as provocative.

I share the hope that diplomacy will provide a solution. I watch Chinese TV from time to time and it is a useful barometer. But as long as their internal propaganda says that it is their homeland, though, then diplomacy can only delay things, not solve it. When their media starts saying that the SCS is Chinese EEZ, then maybe we can hope for a real solution. Because EEZ can be negotiated, but homeland is not.
China is quickly modernizing its deepseafleet to counter the us in the region. They have the basurd claim of 90% of South China sea.. LOL...
According to link deleted they have 495 warships in total, a pretty impressive fleet, but the quality is not even close to that of Russia or US.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

gazzzwp

Member
Is the U.S. really going to defend "them"? Is it in the interest of the U.S. to risk the prospect of war in the event that China gets more aggressive with a certain claimant? If Chinese bullying of a certain claimant does not interfere with the freedom of navigation in the area, will it be in the interests of the U.S. to risk getting caught up in a war; especially after the failures that were Iraq and Afghanistan? If for example the Philippines decides to act more aggressively - with a 40 year old former USCG cutter - in knowledge that it is a U.S. treaty ally; will the U.S. automatically jump in if a Chinese ships rams the Philippines cutter?

If the U.S. - regardless of whether it serves its natural interests - was so eager to defend the weak and vulnerable; I can think of certain places whose populations would be deserving of U.S. protection to safeguard their well being, "respect" and "dignity".
I see the US as the only one super power with any honour at the moment.

Yes they are lending support to various nations at the moment; particularly those at risk from China and Russia. Also those in the middle east too and yet without becoming embroiled themselves.

I do not see a lot wrong with the actions of the US at the moment. We see a very restrained moderate leadership that asserts itself when needed without the impulsive trigger happy attitude that it had in previous decades.

What regime change may bring in the US is anyone's guess. Being a European I certainly would not want to be without their support at this time.

I'll wager there are tens of millions of South Koreans that agree with that sentiment.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Why not just regard the whole area as international water? Or agree say a 250 mile boundary from all sovereign nations as belonging to that nation?

For China to declare the whole SCS as theirs is preposterous and fails on all moral and historical grounds. I see no sympathy due to China on this issue.
Why not just follow the established international laws? That would rule out the island creation, cancel the Chinese claim, & make most of the disputed area the EEZs (not to be confused with territorial waters) of the littoral states, which means (except for a bit in the north) Not China.
 

gazzzwp

Member
Why not just follow the established international laws? That would rule out the island creation, cancel the Chinese claim, & make most of the disputed area the EEZs (not to be confused with territorial waters) of the littoral states, which means (except for a bit in the north) Not China.
Agreed.

Anyway the militarisation has apparently begun.

U.S. detects Chinese artillery on disputed islands - CNNPolitics.com

I really also object to China accusing the US of stoking tensions. That is a blatant falsehood and I can only hope justice prevails here otherwise terrible things may happen.
 

gazzzwp

Member
Why not just follow the established international laws? That would rule out the island creation, cancel the Chinese claim, & make most of the disputed area the EEZs (not to be confused with territorial waters) of the littoral states, which means (except for a bit in the north) Not China.
Swerve what are your thoughts about timing of a major US challenge? Once these islands are complete and fully militarised with fighter and bomber fleets, missile defences and naval assets would that present a major danger to the movements of the US an her allies in the area?

Would it be in the interests of the allies to launch a major challenge sooner rather than later?

This surely has to be a dilemma that needs a quick decision by the US policy makers?
 

gazzzwp

Member
There isn't really much more the U.S. can do beyond what it's already doing. Lets be realistic here. The worrying part is that despite the U.S. "pivot", moves to strengthen ties with regional players and strong statements made by U.S. officials; the Chinese haven't backed down. I suspect the Americans - like everyone else - are not only worried and frustrated but are at a lost at what to do next.

Given the way things are going I will not be surprised to see USN ships visiting Subic more often for rest and refueling stops. Another possibility - if Sino/Vietnamese ties worsen - is USN ships regularly stopping at Da Nang.
The ultimate defiance would be for the allies to build a major reef of their own! A US/Vietnam/Philippines/Malaysia joint venture.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I don't see why European nations need to lose sleep over what's going on in this part of world. Most European governments will probably be observing developments, and I bet have already quietly done their analysis of the SCS situation. The European 'silence' on this matter should be indicative of how the developments in the SCS are being prioritised by the respective governments.

Also, I don't think NATO will be making any statements regarding the SCS in a long while. It simply is not a fundamental area of interest to them.
Not of fundamental interest!

Trade between China and the EU in 2011 totalled 474 billion Euros, 165.6 exports to China and 309.1 from China.

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93European_Union_relations"]China–European Union relations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

That's more than enough reason IMHO
 

barney41

Member
Just saw a PLAN Admiral on CNN saying China may declare Air Defense Zones over some of the reclaimed areas if they perceive their security is threatened. in the meantime, Sec. Ash Carter insists the US wil continue to treat the SCS as part of the global commons and operate accordingly. It's high-stakes poker and seems to put the US and Chinese forces on a collision course. Who will blink first?
 

bdique

Member
I don't want to seem petty but which major EU economies are not part of NATO?
Please don't answer.
Wow, thanks. :/

This is the best way to counter the Chinese push; for countries to outwardly reject it by mutual co-operation. The UK should follow suit along with other NATO members.
C'mon ASSAIL, do you really think that UK, and subsequently NATO will be making overt rejections of current developments through means of 'mutual co-operation', whatever that means? As you rightly pointed out, there is significant trade that goes on between the EU and China. Wouldn't that warrant a more nuanced approach rather than a belligerent one?

And this area really isn't NATO's playing field, isn't it? It would be of concern to individual European nations, no doubt, but what's NATO got to directly do with the South China Sea?
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Wow, thanks. :/



C'mon ASSAIL, do you really think that UK, and subsequently NATO will be making overt rejections of current developments through means of 'mutual co-operation', whatever that means? As you rightly pointed out, there is significant trade that goes on between the EU and China. Wouldn't that warrant a more nuanced approach rather than a belligerent one?

And this area really isn't NATO's playing field, isn't it? It would be of concern to individual European nations, no doubt, but what's NATO got to directly do with the South China Sea?
I'm certainly not countenancing a belligerent approach by NATO. What I am saying is that its in their interest to treat the situation as important to their collective welfare and to bring diplomatic pressure on all concerned to resolve the differences peacefully.

The SCS is not something that Europe should cast aside as being irrelevant to their interests as some have implied. In fact a parallel situation might be Afghanistan where NATO played a leading role as their collective interest was served by them taking military action despite it not being in their "playing field". (I am not advocating a military response in this case)
 

bdique

Member
I'm certainly not countenancing a belligerent approach by NATO. What I am saying is that its in their interest to treat the situation as important to their collective welfare and to bring diplomatic pressure on all concerned to resolve the differences peacefully.

The SCS is not something that Europe should cast aside as being irrelevant to their interests as some have implied. In fact a parallel situation might be Afghanistan where NATO played a leading role as their collective interest was served by them taking military action despite it not being in their "playing field". (I am not advocating a military response in this case)
We're on the same page on this. If you ask me, it would be incredibly unwise for any European government to turn a blind eye to developments in the SCS. As I said earlier, I'm quietly confident that most European governments are keeping an eye on developments in the region. I guess things have not yet developed to a stage where a collective response is warranted - I've no idea where that threshold will lie, honestly. Perhaps when a anti-ship missile battery is spotted on the island?
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
We're on the same page on this. If you ask me, it would be incredibly unwise for any European government to turn a blind eye to developments in the SCS. As I said earlier, I'm quietly confident that most European governments are keeping an eye on developments in the region. I guess things have not yet developed to a stage where a collective response is warranted - I've no idea where that threshold will lie, honestly. Perhaps when a anti-ship missile battery is spotted on the island?
The G7 have made a wishy washy sort of statement against large scale island reclamation in the SCS, I know there are only 5 European powers in the G7, and Russia had to sit in the naughty corner this time, however they are the most powerful of the European nations.

The escalation in the SCS creates significant problems for diplomacy in Oz, 'cause we want to be best buddies to everyone in the region, but when your major trading partner and your major strategic partner starts to face off, some tough decisions will need to be made.

So far the 'new model' of great power relations doesn't seem to be working as hoped. I thought this article from 2014 - America, China and the 'new model of great-power relations' | Lowy Institute for International Policy was a pretty good one at describing the 'new model' and how it could pan out in a positive way; and how it could fail. Unfortunately since it was written China has followed what the article calls ‘proactive assertiveness’, putting pressure on its smaller neighbours to abandon their claims in the SCS. As the article points out, this has led several of China’s neighbours to cuddle back up to the US, which is rather counter productive. China may be following a carrot & stick approach, after using a bit of stick, she will then use the carrot of soft economic power to undo the diplomatic damage while keeping what ever asset was gained by the stick. This may be a cyclical thing over the next decades.
 
Last edited:

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Clearly NATO has more pressing issues than the SCS like Ukraine and ISIL. Given the West's weak response towards the Ukrainian crisis has likely emboldened the Chinese but realistically nobody wants a major power confrontation over the Ukraine let alone a few islands in the SCS. Then again WW1 started over a seemingly minor event.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Welll . . . . if the Chinese security forces recruited, financed, armed & trained a group of (e.g.) Hawaiian secessionists to assassinate the vice president of the USA while he or she was performing official duties in Honolulu, & they successfully carried out the assassination, killing the VP's spouse at the same time, would you call it a minor event?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top