Ukranian Crisis

[GermanHerman]

You are doing it again. Relativism at it's finest.

Yes, Stalin's reign and to a lesser degree the regimes that followed him did horrible things. As did Mao or Pol Pot for what it's worth.

But that doesn't make the atrocities of Germany any better. This nation planned and committed genocide and war on an epic scale. Just because other countries don't accept and learn from the wrongdoings of the past doesn't make it any less evil.

Firebombing our cities was exactly what Germany deserved and putting them into the same context as the German actions is just wrong.

Oh come on now, that is beyond ridiculous. The targeting of civilian population is never right or something someone "deserves". You might talk about "Germany" as the abstract leviathan, the state under nazi rule but at the end the state is made up of people and to generalize and say all of them randomly deserved to die a horrible death because some or even the majority believed in the wrong ideals is nothing short of beeing horribly close to the beliefes of the fashists itself.

You do realise that some of the people that make up the state and which "deserved" to be burned alive were children. Do you realy beliefe in any circumstances it would be alright to do that?

You are absolutly right in stating that there shouldn't be any relativation of the german war crimes but this statement of yours is far beyond any good taste.

 

[Waylander]

You think so? Germany had no problems with bombing cities like Rotterdam, Coventry, Warsaw or London.

For me Nazi Germany was no faceless evil Leviathan but made out of people. And while many good and innocent people, especially children, died in the bombings of our cities it were the people of Germany which let the evil come to frution. Fore sure not all of them and for sure not the children which had to pay a terrible price for the wrongdoings of others. But surely enough to start an extreme war of hate and genocide.

You reap what you sow and getting your cities bombed to smitherins is terrible but understandable. I would even go as far as saying that as a nation, Germany needed this experience of utter destruction and defeat in order to come back into the ranks of the civilized world.

 

[BlueRose]

You think so? Germany had no problems with bombing cities like Rotterdam, Coventry, Warsaw or London.

For me Nazi Germany was no faceless evil Leviathan but made out of people. And while many good and innocent people, especially children, died in the bombings of our cities it were the people of Germany which let the evil come to frution. Fore sure not all of them and for sure not the children which had to pay a terrible price for the wrongdoings of others. But surely enough to start an extreme war of hate and genocide.

You reap what you sow and getting your cities bombed to smitherins is terrible but understandable. I would even go as far as saying that as a nation, Germany needed this experience of utter destruction and defeat in order to come back into the ranks of the civilized world.

That's an utterly sad position, I take the good out of the bad.

 

[Waylander]

It is defenitely terrible. I just need to think of the stories of my grandparents which experienced the war as children. Or my other grandparents which experienced the war on the frontlines and at home as young adults. Horrible.

Nevertheless I stand by my words.

 

[wittmanace]

You think so? Germany had no problems with bombing cities like Rotterdam, Coventry, Warsaw or London.

For me Nazi Germany was no faceless evil Leviathan but made out of people. And while many good and innocent people, especially children, died in the bombings of our cities it were the people of Germany which let the evil come to frution. Fore sure not all of them and for sure not the children which had to pay a terrible price for the wrongdoings of others. But surely enough to start an extreme war of hate and genocide.

You reap what you sow and getting your cities bombed to smitherins is terrible but understandable. I would even go as far as saying that as a nation, Germany needed this experience of utter destruction and defeat in order to come back into the ranks of the civilized world.

Having read your posts for years, I think I see what you are saying. Correct me if I am wrong, but you are saying that the firebombing and carpet bombing of cities was a necessity created by the conduct of Nazi Germany as a state ( a pattern of behaviour, not an incident or one aspect), the behaviour itself enabled or allowed or carried out by the German population of the time, thus rendering them responsible. And that the Germans of the time are not in a position to claim any moral high ground, but rather were entirely accepting at least, when the shoe was on the other foot. If so I agree, to varying degrees, with aspects of this.

I think that reading the post in isolation, one could get the impression that it either suggests that what is good for the goose is good for the gander and/or that collective punishment is acceptable. I know you didnt mean that in the post, but to be direct that is in part because I have had the benefit of reading your posts for a while. I just point this out as it seems it may have been taken along these lines.

 

[Waylander]

You are right with you interpretation and probably said it better than I managed to do.

The end of WWI had shown that keeping the idea of a premature capitulation alive in the German population is dangerous. And the bombings as brutal as they were, were a part of this process.

The morale high ground is a shaky thing. The western allies treated the civilians and POWs captured in their offensives largely well. And although it was also driven by the need for a strong ally against communism they helped to rebuild West Germany and soon welcomed it back if not as an equal and sovereign nation but at least as a largely self governing new entity with a democracy and right of law which grew strong over the years.

To get a bit back on track the same cannot be said about the eastern allies. The Sovjet Union und er Stalin was as much a brutal totalitarian state as the 3rd Reich and while they didn't conduct genocide on an industrial scale their wrongdoings die cost millions of mostly their own peoples lives.

Their behaviour after the end of WWII comes back to hunt them even these days. The Poles, Czech, Baltics, etc. didn't forget who kept them under an iron boot for nearly half a century. The Czech areas for example where one of the most productive and competitive industrial areas of it's time before WWII. Look were they were after the fall of the wall. The Poles got the sticky end twice, first by direct invasion together with Germany and than again after their "liberation". The SU also mercilessly crushed resistance like in Ukraine or popular uprisings like in Prague and East Germany.

And these days it looks like Russia learned nothing out of it's own dark past. It still acts as if it's eastern neighbours are mere playballs and loy spheres of influence. A free and sovereign national will of these nations seems totally alien to Russia. This is also shown by Russias ongoing commentaries against eastern EU and NATO membership. While it is normal that large organisations like the EU and NATO try to depict themselves in a positive light at the end it were the eastern countries which pledged membership. They sought for security against their eastern neighbour and expected nothing in terms of economical growth by keeping in Russias basket.

For Russia it's all an evil western plot while realistically it's it's behaviour in the past and present which drives it's neighbours away.

 

[narvi]

To get a bit back on track the same cannot be said about the eastern allies. The Sovjet Union und er Stalin was as much a brutal totalitarian state as the 3rd Reich and while they didn't conduct genocide on an industrial scale their wrongdoings die cost millions of mostly their own peoples lives.

Their behaviour after the end of WWII comes back to hunt them even these days. The Poles, Czech, Baltics, etc. didn't forget who kept them under an iron boot for nearly half a century. The Czech areas for example where one of the most productive and competitive industrial areas of it's time before WWII. Look were they were after the fall of the wall. The Poles got the sticky end twice, first by direct invasion together with Germany and than again after their "liberation". The SU also mercilessly crushed resistance like in Ukraine or popular uprisings like in Prague and East Germany.

And these days it looks like Russia learned nothing out of it's own dark past. It still acts as if it's eastern neighbours are mere playballs and loy spheres of influence. A free and sovereign national will of these nations seems totally alien to Russia. This is also shown by Russias ongoing commentaries against eastern EU and NATO membership. While it is normal that large organisations like the EU and NATO try to depict themselves in a positive light at the end it were the eastern countries which pledged membership. They sought for security against their eastern neighbour and expected nothing in terms of economical growth by keeping in Russias basket.

For Russia it's all an evil western plot while realistically it's it's behaviour in the past and present which drives it's neighbours away.

Well said, well said. And while there is a small but vocal group of people in Poland (and in other EE countries as well) that treats Russia as 'genetic' enemy, majority just wants neutral relations with mutual respect. In that regard, joining NATO and EU were never meant to be 'aggresive' actions, just guarantees that smaller, less potent countries would be treated as independent actors on the international stage.

Looking from our perspective Russia (and large majority of Russians) never accepted those goals. Militaristic, nationalist rhetoric, political games played on the economical field (like various embargoes) and even limited willingness to investigate historical events (it is still hard to access Russian documents and state sources) prolong and strengthen picture of Russia as the 'menace from the east'. In this light recent events in Ukraine can be seen here in just one way - as a confirmation of a long standing trend in Russian political evolution towards Soviet Union 2.0.

From my experience in various forum communities in recent months, opinions and views commonly seen in EE (and to some degree also in WE and US) are in complete contradiction to views of Russian posters. Having witnessed long, inconclusive discussions (or rather exchanges of posts with little effect) I fear that the gap is widening to an unbridgeable chasm.

 

[Feanor]

Well said, well said. And while there is a small but vocal group of people in Poland (and in other EE countries as well) that treats Russia as 'genetic' enemy, majority just wants neutral relations with mutual respect. In that regard, joining NATO and EU were never meant to be 'aggresive' actions, just guarantees that smaller, less potent countries would be treated as independent actors on the international stage.

Looking from our perspective Russia (and large majority of Russians) never accepted those goals. Militaristic, nationalist rhetoric, political games played on the economical field (like various embargoes) and even limited willingness to investigate historical events (it is still hard to access Russian documents and state sources) prolong and strengthen picture of Russia as the 'menace from the east'. In this light recent events in Ukraine can be seen here in just one way - as a confirmation of a long standing trend in Russian political evolution towards Soviet Union 2.0.

From my experience in various forum communities in recent months, opinions and views commonly seen in EE (and to some degree also in WE and US) are in complete contradiction to views of Russian posters. Having witnessed long, inconclusive discussions (or rather exchanges of posts with little effect) I fear that the gap is widening to an unbridgeable chasm.

I would amend the emphasized part to "Russian Empire 2.0" and you'd be right. The Soviet Union was an extremely interesting place sociologically and politically, and I don't think modern day Russia is up to replicating the insane social measures necessary to produce that state of affairs. Nor does Putin and Co. want to live like the ascetic monks (Stalin for example) or middle class burghers (Brezhnev/Gorbachev). The level of luxury they want, the nature of the upper class, it's all far more similar to the empire. Of course there's also the lack of an ideological foundation for their power, there's their old-school territorial expansionism (some resurrection of pan-Slavism with the idea of the Russian World), hell even the way they annexed Crimea by buying out their government and leaving them in their local positions of power, it all looks like the old empire.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Well it will be interesting to see how the rest of Europe reacts, long term.

France seems more interested in selling equipment than anything else, Germany looks concerned but looks like keeping business as usual. Rather than building up German forces directly, I think Germany would be more interested in strengthening "buffer" countries closer to the boundaries, also being more independent of Russian energy.

Germany is still in someways an occupied country, there is a huge US military presence still in Germany, US forces are exempt from local laws, while the check points are gone, there is still a strong presence. A militarist Germany is something people have been trying to avoid from occurring. If Germany today announced it was kicking military spending to 4% of GDP it would have a huge impact on other countries around it. Even 2% which is pretty common spend, would be seen as high by the local population. While some think it would be okay, as long as they only directed it against the evil Russians, countries and national pride don't always work like that.

If we are looking at Russian Empire 2.0, then how is the rest of Europe going to deal with that. What happens the next time the Russians "claim" new territory.

 

[CB90]

Germany is still in someways an occupied country, there is a huge US military presence still in Germany, US forces are exempt from local laws, while the check points are gone, there is still a strong presence.

Relative to the size of the German military and US troop presence in other European countries? Maybe. Though the UK also has a sizable presence, and probably a higher tooth to tail ratio. A lot of HQ/NATO interfacing staffs are in Germany, which is probably why the numbers run higher there than in the UK, which is mostly USAF combat units and their support.

Status of Forces Agreements aren't unusual. They're pretty much the norm everywhere US troops are deployed, and other nations have used them as well.

 

[Waylander]

The 2+4 treaty ended all occupational rights of the allied forces in Germany and gave it back all of it's sovereign rights. The NATO forces which remained here did so under normal status of forces agreements between allied nations.

As has been said what remains are mostly support, logistics, USAF and C3I facilities. IIRC only a stryker brigade worth of combat troops is currently based here. Local people actually don't like the reduction of foreign forces due to them being an important local economic factor.

I agree with Feanor that it looks more like empire 2.0 with high government figured and oligarchs being the new nobles.

 

[swerve]

Germany is still in someways an occupied country, there is a huge US military presence still in Germany, US forces are exempt from local laws, while the check points are gone, there is still a strong presence.

40000 US troops, with a very high proportion supporting operations elsewhere. They have 29 tanks, all at one training ground. Germany has armed forces of 183000.

They're not 'exempt from local laws'. If they do something which is illegal in Germany but not the USA (e.g. a breach of local gun control laws), the Germans have exclusive jurisdiction. If they do something which is illegal under both US & German law, both sets of authorities are involved. Which h one has primary jurisdiction depends on circumstances, but it's mostly Germany, unless Germany chooses to waive it. And if they break US military law but not German law, the US military tries 'em & the Germans aren't involved.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Well it seems that status for forces still has pretty strong power at least in southern Germany, in that only very serious crimes are pursued by the police (those involving organised crime, death etc). While not major recent public incident comes to mind in Germany, South Korea and Japan have had significant issues, quite possibly because legal systems are considerably different to the US system. My original comment is inaccurate, however I was trying to point out that the German psyche is somewhat more complex. Many don't really understand how the SOFA really works.

The 4+2 treaty still has ramifications for Germany. It can have a armed forces of no larger than 370,000 for example setting clear limits. Germany was only really a complete nation in the early 90's and soviet/federation forces left Berlin in 1994. Only German forces can operate in the former east Germany. Nuclear weapons etc. It is more problematic (diplomatically, politically, legally, ethically, internally and externally ) for Germany to suddenly increase it defence forces. There is a great deal of inertia, where as other countries like the UK, France etc do not have to deal with.

I wonder:
Germany signs deal with Poland over navy
If Poland had worries about this and was actively seeking broader deals. While upgunning Germany has issues, Poland on the other hand would have serious concerns and would most likely welcome added funds to sure up its forces.

And Poland definitely seems very concerned with what is happening around it. Its not sure if Germany is acting in the same direction as its interests.

Has Germany sidelined Poland?

 

[swerve]

AFAIK the Germans often waive their primary jurisdiction, & let the US military punish its own. Easier & cheaper for Germany. But it is extremely reluctant to waive jurisdiction in any case which might end in a death sentence.

The ceiling on German forces is meaningless. Germany has cut to half what it's allowed, & has no intention or need of building back up to a level where the limit would be a consideration. Thus, there is no effective legal bar to increasing its forces. The only external pressure on it is to stop cutting. The only obstacle to increasing strength (starting by spending enough on spares & maintenance) is internal politics.

 

[PO2GRV]

Ukraine to Receive German Humanitarian Aid Monday: Ukrainian Official | World | RIA Novosti

So to segue back on topic here, German humanitarian to arrive in Ukraine. Of note, there's a stipulation that it will only be distributed to regions under the control of the Kiev govt

 

[John Fedup]

AFAIK the Germans often waive their primary jurisdiction, & let the US military punish its own. Easier & cheaper for Germany. But it is extremely reluctant to waive jurisdiction in any case which might end in a death sentence.

The ceiling on German forces is meaningless. Germany has cut to half what it's allowed, & has no intention or need of building back up to a level where the limit would be a consideration. Thus, there is no effective legal bar to increasing its forces. The only external pressure on it is to stop cutting. The only obstacle to increasing strength (starting by spending enough on spares & maintenance) is internal politics.

The last sentence in your post applies to some other NATO members as well, especially my country.

 

[kato]

AFAIK the Germans often waive their primary jurisdiction, & let the US military punish its own.

Germany waives its jurisdiction in exactly those cases where no German citizens or assets are involved.

Germany has cut to half what it's allowed, & has no intention or need of building back up to a level where the limit would be a consideration.

Technically, the Bundeswehr still maintains a socalled "reconstitution target". This target was declared in 1994 and establishes a "full strength defense force" far beyond the 2+4 treaty limit.
The "reconstitution target" consists of the active forces, the mobilizing reserve forces (Ersatztruppenteile) and a non-structured, non-equipped personnel reserve that - if it actually existed as supposed - would currently be somewhere around 400,000 men; the full target number is equal to the size of the combined Bundeswehr and National People's Army as of 1990.

There used to be numbers handed out what time the Bundeswehr would need to grow an active force back to its full "reconstitution target". Back in the 90s, that was six months, during the last decade it was 12 months, currently it's probably around two years. This growth presumes the 2+4 treaty limit to be either cancelled, ignored or declared void.

So to segue back on topic here, German humanitarian to arrive in Ukraine. Of note, there's a stipulation that it will only be distributed to regions under the control of the Kiev govt

The official press release (in German) declares that the humanitarian aid would be delivered to Dniepopetrovsk, Mariupol, Slavyansk, Charkov and Saporoshje.
The whole thing is a bit ridiculous insofar as what we're sending are just containers, generators, field kitchens and water and fuel tanks - stuff that we have scores of that we no longer use. Of course we're still declaring 7.3 million worth, cuz that's what it would probably bring if we sold it through VEBEG. The actual humanitarian aid, such as clothes, blankets, some furniture and stuff like that (worth 2.7 million), will be bought in Ukraine itself and just redistributed.

The whole thing is organized through the private company GIZ, which doesn't really advertise abroad that it's fully owned by the German government. Or that it tends to be used as a cover for the BND surprisingly often...

 

[Feanor]

Situation on the Front

Kiev forces have attempted several attacks on Donetsk, including near the airport. Heavy fighting is resuming rapidly.

Government MBTs were sighted advancing on rebel positions near the airport.

http://military-informant.com/index...hali-nastuplenie-na-pozitsii-opolcheniya.html
http://military-informant.com/index...oj-s-primeneniem-tyazheloj-bronetekhniki.html

Meanwhile the rebels have begun firing heavy weapons, and AA guns, into Schastye, in an attempt to retake the city.

http://military-informant.com/index...tsy-obstrelyali-iz-zenitok-gorod-schaste.html

The rebels admit, that despite earlier claims of taking the airport, parts of it remain under government control.

http://military-informant.com/index...chastichno-nakhoditsya-pod-kontrolem-vsu.html

 

[Feanor]

Armed Forces

A new Ukrainian ATGM Skif (Scythian) is being used in the airport battle.

http://military-informant.com/index...j-kompleks-v-rajone-donetskogo-aeroporta.html

Video of the BTR-4K in rebel hands.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1023269.html

Rebel guntrucks.

http://karelmilitary.livejournal.com/482496.html

A re militarized civilian BRDM for Kiev troops.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1449957.html

15 armored cars from Streit Group are handed over to the Ukrainian government.

http://military-informant.com/index...m-strukturam-ukrainy-15-broneavtomobilej.html

Dozor-B armored car production has been stalled due to Germany refusing engine supplies. Now it looks like Sweden might be an alternative.

http://military-informant.com/index...men-germanskikh-dlya-svoej-bronetekhniki.html

Some of the helmets in the Ukrainian military turned out to be paintball helmets.

http://military-informant.com/index...uyu-armiyu-odeli-v-shlemy-dlya-pejntbola.html

Leadership of the Carpathian TerBtln that fled the war zone will be put on trial.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1446864.html

 

[Feanor]

General Background

A military unit near Kiev mutinied, and is marching on the Presidential administration. Some of them are National Guard that were conscripted rather then volunteering.

The situation is problematic but not as volatile as it seems. Yet.

http://military-informant.com/index...dii-militsiya-goroda-podnyata-po-trevoge.html
http://twower.livejournal.com/1451037.html

Russian military units are being pulled back from the border with Ukraine. What this will amount to remains to be seen.

http://newsru.com/russia/12oct2014/rostovskaya.html
http://twower.livejournal.com/1449718.html
http://newsru.com/russia/11oct2014/putinrost.html

Ukrainian MinDef Geletey, has been retired.

http://newsru.com/world/12oct2014/geletey.html

Kiev governor of Donbass has said he's willing to negotiate with the rebels, if it's a constructive dialogue.

http://military-informant.com/index...enko-gotov-k-peregovoram-s-opolchentsami.html

Poroshenko hopes to reach a gas deal with Putin.

http://newsru.com/world/11oct2014/poroshenkosays.html

The DNR has reached an agreement with Kiev about border demarcation.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1448502.html

Kharkov region has been declared as part of the war zone.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/847163.html
http://military-informant.com/index...operatsiyu-teper-i-v-kharkovskoj-oblasti.html

OSCE UAVs have arrived in Ukraine.

http://military-informant.com/index...-dostavili-bespilotniki-dlya-missii-obse.html

The UN says over 3000 dead in the war in Ukraine, hundreds since after the ceasefire.

Personal comment: probably a low estimate.

http://newsru.com/world/08oct2014/ua_un.html