Ukranian Crisis

[Blackshoe]

A scary looking volunteer btln checkpoint near... Odessa. Because you know... there's a big chance of rebels showing up there.

You say that, but a checkpoint manned by the Ukrainian Navy there was hit by an RPG two nights ago.

 

[Feanor]

You say that, but a checkpoint manned by the Ukrainian Navy there was hit by an RPG two nights ago.

Thank you for the material. No info so far has surfaced on that attack in Russian sources.

I have to wonder if the attack was carried out because there are checkpoints there...

 

[Feanor]

Situation on the Front

Destruction of the 72nd Mech Bde at Amvrosievka.

http://etoonda.livejournal.com/735889.html

Rebel Grad firing on government troops despite the ceasefire. Exchanges of fire have been constant.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZS_AzKWThAE"]Град "Оплота" в ДокучаевÑке 27/09/14 - YouTube[/nomedia]

Government arty position.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3798007.html

MVD BTR-60s and BRDM-2s were sighted on the streets of Kharkov. MVD says they will now patrol the city in armored vehicles.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/news/6956-na-ulitsakh-kharkova-poyavilas-bronetekhnika.html

Ukraine says they've withdrawn all heavy armor and heavy weapons from Mariupol'.

http://military-informant.com/index...u-tyazheluyu-bronetekhniku-iz-mariupolya.html

Fighting inside the Donetsk airport. Rebel forces are clearly inside the airport.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVLNHlIyZJQ"]Донецк бои за аÑропорт зачиÑтка ополченцами ДÐР - ЭкÑклюзив - YouTube[/nomedia]
http://military-informant.com/index...roporta-donetska-serezno-aktivizirovalis.html
http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/811499.html

A destroyed Ukrainian vehicle column near Novoazovsk.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1069964.html

Ukrainian checkpoints near Mariupol' are taking Grad fire.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1034808.html

DNR fighters near Zhdanovka.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1036167.html

Fighting took place in Novosvetlovka, allegedly on Sep. 24th. The next day we have footage of the wreckage.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuE41u1JMpQ"]ÐовоÑветловка ледующий день поÑле боевых дейÑтвий. Украина новоÑти ÑегоднÑ. - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[Feanor]

Armed Forces

UAV donated to Ukrainian forces by volunteers.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1436345.html

New APCs and trucks for the Ukrainian border guards.

http://military-informant.com/index...ogranvojsk-ukrainy-otpravilas-v-zonu-ato.html

The 79th Airmobile Bde is getting 2S1 howitzers.

http://military-informant.com/index...rigady-postupili-pervye-sau-2s1-gvozdika.html

200 service members of the 79th Airmobile have refused deployment to the warzone. They're being denied pay.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1435961.html

More improv. vehicles for Ukraine.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1008306.html

Ukrainian volunteer btln Fenix has D-30 howitzers.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/811678.html

 

[Feanor]

General Background

Ukraine is short 7.5 bln cubic meters of gas for the winter.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1038257.html

Eurocommission says that Ukraine has to pay Gazprom 3.1 bln USD.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1037112.html

Yatsenyuk accuses Russia of trying to "freeze" Ukraine.

Personal comment: I mean I get it, general Winter and all, but it's not like Russia has a weather machine.

http://newsru.com/world/26sep2014/yatsenuk.html

The DNR is requiring farmers to register with the government, their ownership of crops. Unregistered crops will be confiscated.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1035938.html

In response to the Peace March in Moscow, a pro-Putin march will be held.

http://newsru.com/russia/26sep2014/miting.html

Ukraine is trying to negotiate with Russia, the return of 10 mln USD worth of equipment from the space communications center in Crimea. The equipment is used to communicate with the Ukraine satellite, Libed' (Swan).

http://eagle-rost.livejournal.com/227724.html

 

[BlueRose]

Great footage of the assault on Donetsk airport, it includes a map and open battle plan discussions by the Rebels. They clearly have the southern end of the Hangars under control now. ENG sub https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8hfVqPM1V4#t=730

 

[dprijadi]

Great footage of the assault on Donetsk airport, it includes a map and open battle plan discussions by the Rebels. They clearly have the southern end of the Hangars under control now. ENG sub https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8hfVqPM1V4#t=730

but who hold the donetsk airport ? is it foreign mercenary force as alleged by some rebel sources ? any info on this ? :sniper

 

[Feanor]

but who hold the donetsk airport ? is it foreign mercenary force as alleged by some rebel sources ? any info on this ? :sniper

Ukrainian SpetzNaz along with airmobile grunts. No evidence of mercs.

Well to be precise, they hold parts of the airport. The rebels hold a few parts too. And a lot of it has become no-mans land between the two sides.

 

[PhysicsMan]

Great footage of the assault on Donetsk airport, it includes a map and open battle plan discussions by the Rebels. They clearly have the southern end of the Hangars under control now. ENG sub https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8hfVqPM1V4#t=730

Interesting video. May be worth noting that every single fighter heard on the video has an obvious Ukrainian accent (speaking Russian) - the kind the Russian speakers in Ukraine have.

 

[wsb05]

Ukrainian SpetzNaz along with airmobile grunts. No evidence of mercs.

Well to be precise, they hold parts of the airport. The rebels hold a few parts too. And a lot of it has become no-mans land between the two sides.

Hello Feanor, I would like to contact you privately for an urgent matter if possible. Kindly direct, thanks in advance.

 

[Feanor]

Hello Feanor, I would like to contact you privately for an urgent matter if possible. Kindly direct, thanks in advance.

I'm sorry about the slow response, but I was away for a few days. Please send me a private message, and I will respond there.

For everyone else, I'm sorry it's been a while. I will try to make an update post tomorrow or wednesday, whenever I have time.

 

[Feanor]

Situation on the Front

Ukrainian naval artillery near Odessa. The commentary in the post accurately points out how badly prepared the positions are.

http://alex-leshy.livejournal.com/225247.html

Ukraine accused Russia of testing armor-piercing ammo in Ukraine.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1445131.html

It seems that the fighting has slowed down by a lot. Military archeologists are now looking for the MIA dead.

http://www.profile.ru/eks-sssr/item/86741-vsekh-my-uzhe-nikogda-ne-najdem

Ukrainian bunkers near the Donetsk airport. Note the heavy concrete and logs.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1445918.html

There is info that the 10th and 14th Territorial Defense Btlns have crossed to the rebel side, fought briefly against government troops, before a rebel offensive allowed them to cross into rebel-controlled territory. The btlns in question are from Cherkassy and Zhitomir. There are also reports of some personnel from a Kharkov TB Btln crossing to the rebel side. This is so far unconfirmed.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1077674.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3820208.html

DNR rebels have fired on two Ukrainian border guard patrol boats, and apparently damaged them.

http://military-informant.com/index...dnr-podbila-dva-pogranichnykh-katera-vsu.html

A video of fighting in the Donetsk airport, from the rebel side.

http://karelmilitary.livejournal.com/478950.html

Ukrainain MoD is refusing to release the names of their dead from the battle at Ilovaysk. They claim the number of dead is 108.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1046209.html

There are reports of chemical weapons used against the government forces in the Donetsk airport, but it appears that it was a mass use of smoke grenades.

http://military-informant.com/index...veshchestva-protiv-ukrainskikh-silovikov.html

Fighting continues around the Donetsk airport. Rebel-sourced video.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3810842.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3811301.html
http://summer56.livejournal.com/237148.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsT-QRTo38M

It seems that at least one of the terminals is in rebel hands.

http://military-informant.com/index...sumelo-vzyat-terminal-aeroporta-donetska.html

Ukrainian Msta-B cannons, abandoned.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1010059.html

Shahtersk, rebel D-30 howitzers firing.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1038819.html

Rebels destroyed a government BTR, killing 7 soldiers, 9 more were heavily wounded.

http://military-informant.com/index...a-udalos-podbit-ukrainskij-btr-7-ubitykh.html

A Ukrainian Mi-8 shot down despite the ceasefire. It's unclear if the flight was violating the ceasefire.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1071174.html

 

[Feanor]

Armed Forces

Photoset of rebel fighters and gear.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1074544.html

Up-armored Grad in Nikolaev. The local railroad factory is doing them.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1445543.html

Higher level officers and generals are being massively retired from the Ukrainian Border Guards.

http://military-informant.com/index...zhby-ukrainy-begut-generaly-i-polkovniki.html

Ukrainian BTRs near the Donetsk Airport, 79th Airmobile Bde.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1445013.html

Poland has declined to provide weapons to Ukraine.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/analytic/7029-polyaki-otkazalis-dat-ukraine-oruzhie.html

A Ukrainian officer in the Donetsk airport died due to fake body armor provided to the troops.

http://military-informant.com/index...ogo-bronezhileta-pogib-ukrainskij-ofitse.html

A thorough inventory, with photos, of all Ukrainian 152mm SP Arty in service and storage.

On March 1st we have 38 Msta-S and 21 Giatsint-S SP Arty.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3815956.html

A photo-session of the Kiev Armored Repair Plant. It produces BTR-3s, repairs and overhauls all kinds of older armor.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1442939.html

A BTR-4 in rebel hands, repainted and ready for combat.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1016037.html

Ukrainian prisoners provided an uparmored truck for the war.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1016716.html

More up-armored civilian vans for the Ukrainian military.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1012623.html

 

[Feanor]

General Background

Two Russian VDV soldiers supposedly killed in Ukraine are alive and well in Russia.

http://newsru.com/russia/06oct2014/alive.html

Other info says two VDV soldiers (unclear if the same two) were secretly buried in Kostroma. Supposedly a training accident. Details are lacking.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/825840.html

Representatives of the OSCE, Russia, and Ukraine will begin border demarcation between rebel-held territories and Ukraine.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1046919.html

Two soldiers of TB Btln Aydar are being charged with kidnapping. Their fellow service members, in masks, and uniforms, are protesting the arrests.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1048636.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1048999.html

After a Lenin statue was demolished in Kharkov by the government, hundreds of locals brought flowers to the pedestal of the demolished statue. You can see them removing the pro-Ukraine graffiti from the pedestal, and I saw at least one St. George ribbon.

Last time Right Sector activists tried to pull this stunt, they were beat up by the locals, and then arrested by the police. This time I guess it's different.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1038892.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1039254.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1039681.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHOtvoNBzs8

Protests in Kharkov, against the Kiev government. Note the red flags.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1070660.html

Avakov, Svoboda member-turned Minister of Internal Affairs (national law enforcement organ) says that attacks by radicals on political figures in Ukraine may cause the west to turn away from Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/world/01oct2014/avakov.html

It also seems that Ukrainian attitude about NATO membership are changing. Some polls indicate that the majority are now in favor (where as only a few years ago the majority were staunchly against it).

http://military-informant.com/index...aintsev-podderzhivayut-vstuplenie-v-nato.html

ExxonMobil has canceled 9 out of 10 of their joint projects with Rosneft.

http://newsru.com/finance/30sep2014/exxonmobil.html

Right Sector activists beat up a Party of Regions politician in Odessa, and disrupted the press-conference.

http://newsru.com/world/30sep2014/shufrich.html

Ukrainian SBU claims it uncovered a plot to hijack and fly to Russia a Ukrainian Su-24 plane.

http://newsru.com/world/30sep2014/sbu.html

The EU is not currently considering lifting sanctions against Russia. Merkel in particular said that restoring relations with Russia may take decades.

http://newsru.com/world/30sep2014/sanc.html
http://newsru.com/world/29sep2014/merk.html

OSCE observers visited a mass burial site near Donetsk. They were shown there by locals. These mass burial sites were first reported by Russian media, and Russian human rights groups, then brought to the attention of the OSCE.

http://newsru.com/world/29sep2014/osce.html

The EU puts off the free-trade zone with Ukraine until 2016.

http://newsru.com/world/29sep2014/es.html

A Ukrainian oligarch intends to sue Russia for 2 bln dollars.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1038372.html

A memorial gathering, for those who died in the Ukrainain Civil War was held in Moscow. It was pro-rebel (of course) and was definitely sanctioned and supported by the government. That having been said, it seems that turnout was quite high.

http://arkthur-kl.livejournal.com/1347206.html

 

[nkvd]

Russia could spark war with NATO by seizing the Kuril islands according to Newsweek.
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/17/baltics-arctic-russian-wolf-door-275599.html
Also Russia is said to be "piercing" the Canadian and American air defense identification zone.

 

[KiwiRob]

Russia could spark war with NATO by seizing the Kuril islands according to Newsweek.

Since when has Japan ever been a NATO member.

I would think the Yalta Agreement guarantees Russia sovereignty over them.

The Yalta Agreement, signed by the US, Great Britain and the Soviet Union, stated:

The leaders of the three great powers – the Soviet Union, the United States of America and Great Britain – have agreed that in two or three months after Germany has surrendered and the war in Europe is terminated, the Soviet Union shall enter into war against Japan on the side of the Allies on condition that: [....] 2. The former rights of Russia violated by the treacherous attack of Japan in 1904 shall be restored, viz.: (a) The southern part of Sakhalin as well as the islands adjacent to it shall be returned to the Soviet Union; [....] 3. The Kurile Islands shall be handed over to the Soviet Union.

 

[swerve]

Except that Japan reckons that Habomai, Shikotan, Kunashire & Iturup (i.e. the islands that were part of Japan before 1855) to be part of the Kuriles, & even the USSR in the 1950s, & Russia in the 1990s & 2000s, has offered to hand over Habomai & Shikotan (which both Japan & the USA then held were offshore islands of Hokkaido, not in the Kuriles), apparently accepting that they weren't covered by Yalta.

The 1855 treaty that confirmed the border referred to only one of those island, Iturup (Etorofu). The others were accepted to be undisputed parts of Japan. The English translation is ambiguous, but appears to say that the islands to the north of Iturup are the Kurile islands, & not necessarily Iturup or the islands to the south of it.

So no, it's not guaranteed. The Yalta agreement used a term which was & is open to interpretation, & is disputed - & according to Japan, it isn't legally binding in any case.

 

[BlueRose]

The U.S. has held back the innovation of the Japanese and even the German Military for years. If I were Russia, I wouldn't give them back anything, unless all U.S. bases are removed from Japan.

 

[My2Cents]

Russia could spark war with NATO by seizing the Kuril islands according to Newsweek.
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/17/baltics-arctic-russian-wolf-door-275599.html

How can Russia seize islands that they already occupy and control?

As for reinforcing the garrisons already there, that's a pointless logistics headache they would do well to avoid.

 

[Blackshoe]

The U.S. has held back the innovation of the Japanese and even the German Military for years. If I were Russia, I wouldn't give them back anything, unless all U.S. bases are removed from Japan.

The innovation of the Japanese military? Hardly. Maybe some of their aggressiveness, but not their innovation.