Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It worries me that Russia is so full of bravado in terms of provoking the mighty US; say with these bomber and fighter sorties close to the North American continent.

It worries me because it gives the strong impression that Russia firmly believes in itself to be able to give the US a fair old whack on the chin.
No. But Russia does believe they can outplay the US in regions where Russia has particularly strong interests. So far they've mostly managed to do that. The current Ukraine mess is of course a debacle, but until that Russia had made some serious gains on the international arena.

Is it all just a bluff from political calculation?
What exactly are you asking?

Looking at the videos all over the web, Russia firmly has the opinion that it has superior fighter aircraft and electronic missile capabilities.
You know the opinions of Russian general staff, high command, and military scientists in the academy? Real ones, not the "Russian Stronk!!!" stuff for the media.

Then look at the recent exercises conducted in Europe and the Far east by the Russian military and it becomes clear that they have a greater state or preparedness to go with their advanced weaponry.

NATO never does anything on that scale any more.
NATO does hold large scale exercises. Perhaps not as grandiose as the ones Russia has, but if you look closer at the details you will realize that while Russia has regained the ability to move and deploy masses of men and equipment, this ability is not nearly as solid or foolproof as you might think. And of course there are tons of lower-level problems from old equipment, to a badly trained NCO corps, to inadequate training methods and standards, etc.

For example Russian line infantry (Motor-Rifles) don't train for rapid-reload drills, don't know what a combat glide is, etc. Individual accuracy with personal weapons (AKs) is poor, and not just because the weapons lack optics or is inherently inaccurate (it's not), but because the standards for weapons training are low in general. The low-level officers and NCOs don't have the skills themselves, and thus can't pass it on to the soldiers. Contract soldiers, especially NCOs, are better, and quite valuable, but they're not nearly common enough (they're heavily concentrated in technical jobs that require more knowledge like SAM operators).

No wonder then that NATO is steering clear of an engagement. From what I can see it had better get it's act together and quickly before it really falls behind and faces an adversary that it cannot match.
NATO is nowhere near falling behind Russia. If the Russian economy continues to develop successfully for another 10-15 years, and Russia continues to maintain a high level of military spending, with a competent and capable Ministry-level staff that understands how to get what it needs despite civilian pressures, then Russia may have a military comparable to that (in training, gear, etc.) of western Europe. But that's a big "if".

Also if you honestly think that the primary reason to avoid going to war with Russia, is because NATO is afraid they will lose, you've lost touch with reality. War is expensive, messy, and damaging. Europe has no desire for a major war. So the reason NATO is not going to war with Russia (the primary, if not only, reason) is that it's members don't want to. Even Britain has no desire for a large scale war with Russia.
 

the concerned

Active Member
Although Russia is powerful its armed forces are nowhere near the force that the soviet block used to be. I know they have been ordering new equipment but that can't have reversed nearly 2 decades of decay. It still seems to me that they plan along the one thrust massive charge with little else in reserve. The main issue for Russia now is once this Ukraine situation calm's down then the Ukrainian forces are going to re-equip themselves to provide a credible defence against future Russian aggression so even without Nato expansion they have created an enemy closer to its borders .To be honest if you take nuclear weapons out of the equation I don't see a Nato/Russian conflict being any different to the gulf war.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Although Russia is powerful its armed forces are nowhere near the force that the soviet block used to be. I know they have been ordering new equipment but that can't have reversed nearly 2 decades of decay. It still seems to me that they plan along the one thrust massive charge with little else in reserve. The main issue for Russia now is once this Ukraine situation calm's down then the Ukrainian forces are going to re-equip themselves to provide a credible defence against future Russian aggression so even without Nato expansion they have created an enemy closer to its borders .To be honest if you take nuclear weapons out of the equation I don't see a Nato/Russian conflict being any different to the gulf war.
The bolded parts are straight nonsense. The Ukrainian military is a sad wreck, and the number of uncontrollable volunteer btlns with uparmored or unarmored civilian vehicles, and gear bought with their own money, clearly shows that the Ukrainian government does not have the resources or ability to produce, nevermind a credible defense against Russia, but a functioning military. Ukraine will not have a credible military force to stand up to Russia with in the foreseeable future.

Some food for thought, look at the massive resources and unbendable political will behind the Russian and Chinese militaries. Look at the massive amounts of money being poured into them. And yet they're still quite a ways away from being able to stand up to NATO or the US. For Ukraine to produce a serious modern military would take over a decade (probably over two decades) and massive funds. That's just not happening.
 

stojo

Member
... and the number of uncontrollable volunteer btlns with uparmored or unarmored civilian vehicles, and gear bought with their own money, clearly shows that the Ukrainian government does not have the resources or ability to produce, nevermind a credible defense against Russia, but a functioning military.
I think you are right regarding the state Ukrainian military is in, and the very fact that they rely on volunteer btlns speaks a lot for it self. There is one other thing however, the sheer amount of the destroyed armor shows, that Ukr. government could, if it wanted to, to provide the volunteer btlns. with more than that have at this moment (virtually nothing, but assault rifles, and few APC-s), after all that armor was distributed to regular forces...

Volunteer btlns, and political parties they are associated with, present serious liability when it comes to Poroshenko's authority. There are constant rumors of a nationalist coup. And these people already played a crucial role in removing his predecessor. I don't read to much into this, but it is at least the evidence, that there are people who are contemplating this possibility, and that, among regular oligarchic political elite in Ukraine, there might be certain dose of fear, that something like that just might happen.

Arming those people with tanks, with nothing more than a demotivated regular forces at Poroshenkos disposal, might just be an invitation for nationalists, to march against him, and who would stop them?

At this moment, I would say, there is some sort of love-hate relationship, between the government and volunteer extremists. They need them, but they don't control them fully, and if they arm them completely, they might become even greater danger, than the "evil" they are supposed to fight.
 
The bolded parts are straight nonsense. The Ukrainian military is a sad wreck, and the number of uncontrollable volunteer btlns with uparmored or unarmored civilian vehicles, and gear bought with their own money, clearly shows that the Ukrainian government does not have the resources or ability to produce, nevermind a credible defense against Russia, but a functioning military. Ukraine will not have a credible military force to stand up to Russia with in the foreseeable future.

Some food for thought, look at the massive resources and unbendable political will behind the Russian and Chinese militaries. Look at the massive amounts of money being poured into them. And yet they're still quite a ways away from being able to stand up to NATO or the US. For Ukraine to produce a serious modern military would take over a decade (probably over two decades) and massive funds. That's just not happening.
Yes, the Russians and Chinese cannot project power, but the U. S. would stand a chance in a War close to Russian and Chinese territory. The Russian air defenses would be a massive test for U. S. aircraft.

The Russians are making energy deals with India and China. South Korea and Japan are two very likely potential customers for Russian oil and natural gas. The Japanese government wants the two southernmost Kuril Islands back from Russia. Russia needs to shift to Asia. Russia economic growth has been slowed by slowing Europeans economies.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I think you are right regarding the state Ukrainian military is in, and the very fact that they rely on volunteer btlns speaks a lot for it self. There is one other thing however, the sheer amount of the destroyed armor shows, that Ukr. government could, if it wanted to, to provide the volunteer btlns. with more than that have at this moment (virtually nothing, but assault rifles, and few APC-s), after all that armor was distributed to regular forces...
No. It wasn't distributed. It was the TO equipment of the regular units. In fact there was such a deficit of vehicles at the start that they have to re-distribute working vehicles to concentrate them in units headed to the front. As time went by they brought more of the equipment out of storage, and restored more of it to working order, slowly filling the line army units with vehicles, and repairing those that took minor damage at the front. They they proceeded to hand out some vehicles to the National Guard, and to the first few territorial defense btlns. However as casualties, especially vehicles ones, mounted, they became unable to replace even just their losses. There are no vehicles left to hand over to the territorial defense btlns. At this point the majority of gear in storage is categories 3 and 4, and it wasn't stored properly since the USSR collapsed. It requires considerable money and time to bring it up to combat readiness. Even Poroshenko recently admitted that the Ukrainian military lost 65% of their TO vehicles, in this war so far. It might be an exaggeration, but it gives you an idea of the scale of losses taken.

Volunteer btlns, and political parties they are associated with, present serious liability when it comes to Poroshenko's authority. There are constant rumors of a nationalist coup. And these people already played a crucial role in removing his predecessor. I don't read to much into this, but it is at least the evidence, that there are people who are contemplating this possibility, and that, among regular oligarchic political elite in Ukraine, there might be certain dose of fear, that something like that just might happen.
Some of the btlns are nationalist formations, but some are funded by those very same oligarchs. It's more complicated then that.

Arming those people with tanks, with nothing more than a demotivated regular forces at Poroshenkos disposal, might just be an invitation for nationalists, to march against him, and who would stop them?
They were offered MBTs. Representatives from some volunteer btlns were taken to a tank storage facility (after publicly and repeatedly demanding tanks) and were told "here you go, take however many you need". Unsurprisingly they weren't able to take any because the tanks are in cats 3 and 4, and thus require factory level work to bring them back.

At this moment, I would say, there is some sort of love-hate relationship, between the government and volunteer extremists. They need them, but they don't control them fully, and if they arm them completely, they might become even greater danger, than the "evil" they are supposed to fight.
You don't need MBTs or APCs to overthrow the government. The Army is demoralized and probably wouldn't take orders to fight the territorial defense btlns though they certainly could fight each other. Note that the relatively recent Maydan dispersal in Kiev was done by an MVD volunteer btln. As is, if a large organized force leaning on multiple volunteer btlns grabbed power in Kiev, there's not much anyone could do to stop it. The key thing is that the btlns in question not only belong to different ministries, but also are all independently led by a bunch of colorful figures. Organizing them for a coup would be quite hard.
 

SkolZkiy

New Member
For a long time hasn't read this forum - nothing has changed here:)
As always I see only discussions how fast Russia will loose everything.
Pity, but according to US and EU foreign policy and their debts soon survivors in US and Russia will see who is really more effective and ready for the WW3. But this time US will not be able to sit faaaarrrr away and just watch on what is going on.
 

FoxtrotRomeo999

Active Member
Just for a change, lets look at the political situation within Ukraine itself. Prior to Crimea being separated, about half the country was Russian leaning and half EU leaning.

  1. To what extent do the non-revolting Russian speaking areas of Ukraine support their government? support the ATO?
  2. Is there likely discrimination against citizens or military from these areas?
  3. How likely is it that an eastern leaning President could be elected in the future?

Foxtrot
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
The Russians are making energy deals with India and China. South Korea and Japan are two very likely potential customers for Russian oil and natural gas. The Japanese government wants the two southernmost Kuril Islands back from Russia. Russia needs to shift to Asia. Russia economic growth has been slowed by slowing Europeans economies.
The Japanese and Koreans are already customers of Russian gas, Japan owns a stake in the Yamal LNG project as well as providing some of the design and engineering.
 
The Japanese and Koreans are already customers of Russian gas, Japan owns a stake in the Yamal LNG project as well as providing some of the design and engineering.
Yeah, all the countries I mentioned are already importers of Russian oil and/or natural gas. The Russians have been in talks with India, China, and South Korea about new energy contracts.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Situation on the Front

Unconfirmed reports of rebels assaulting Avdeevka.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/797385.html

Another prisoner exchange, 28 for 28.

http://newsru.com/world/21sep2014/obmen2.html

Allegedly a Ukrainian Tochka strike hit the Donetsk chemical plant that produces military goods. The explosion was quite dramatic. Some reports indicate 3 missile fired, hitting different targets.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1027649.html
http://azlok.livejournal.com/1064019.html
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1000518.html

A destroyed Ukrainian Army checkpoint.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/317123.html

During a recon-by-force mission, the rebels captured a BTR-60 near Mariupol'.

http://military-informant.com/index...polya-byl-zakhvachen-1-btr-60-vs-ukrainy.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Armed Forces

Ukrainian army photoset.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3785429.html

A rebel photoset.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3778380.html

The National Guard is getting 10 armored KrAZ trucks, designed to withstand 7.62 rounds.

http://military-informant.com/index...ej-na-baze-kraz-v-interesakh-natsgvardii.html

Testing of Ukrainian anti-RPG cage armor.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1428693.html

Another T-64BM in rebel hands.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3782159.html

A new armored unmanned ground system for the Ukrainian army is being tested.

http://military-informant.com/index...lya-vyvoza-ranenykh-bojtsov-s-polya-boya.html

A tactical UAV for the Ukrainian military. So far these UAVs have not been purchased in any significant quantities. While Ukrainian sources claim it's Ukrainain, the UAV is an American RVJet made by RangeVideo.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1003120.html

Another up-armored UAZ for the Ukrainian army.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1429890.html

And another one.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1428475.html

A parade in Mariupol', showing off new vehicles.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/photo/6880-v-mariupole-proveli-parad-voennoj-tekhniki.html

The Ukrainian military says they will fire incompetent service members.

http://military-informant.com/index...olit-neboesposobnykh-voennosluzhashchikh.html

Germany has refused to sell engines for Ukrainian Dozor-B APCs.

http://military-informant.com/index...gateli-dlya-ukrainskikh-broneavtomobilej.html

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense says they have no money to re-equip the army.

http://military-informant.com/index...koj-armii-novoj-tekhnikoj-net-minoborony.html

T-72Bs at the Kiev BTRZ. Note some have K-5 ERA tiles. To the best of my knowledge none have been handed over to the military yet.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2014/09/72.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - General Background

Poroshenko claims there were no orders to fire into civilian neighborhoods.

http://newsru.com/world/21sep2014/poroshenko.html

Poroshenko also mentions that the regions not under the Ukrainian flag will not get any budget funds. They will also set up border controls with the rebel regions.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1428749.html

The OSCE published the full text of the memorandum about the ceasefire.

http://newsru.com/world/20sep2014/oscememo.html

Ukrainian MinDef says he was misinterpreted when he made statements about use of nuclear weapons.

http://newsru.com/world/20sep2014/geletey.html

Right Sector fighters "arresting" people in Odessa.

http://ur-2222.livejournal.com/2667383.html

Third Russian humanitarian convoy arrives in Donetsk.

http://newsru.com/world/20sep2014/todonetsk.html
 
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dprijadi

New Member
feanor, do you see any build up of ukraine military indicating another offensive to retake the rebel regions in the near future ? or are they now out of the shooting phase and entering the diplomatic phase ?

in your opinion, how ready will the rebel military be for future military agression by Ukraine goverment ?
 

Rimasta

Member
feanor, do you see any build up of ukraine military indicating another offensive to retake the rebel regions in the near future ? or are they now out of the shooting phase and entering the diplomatic phase ?

in your opinion, how ready will the rebel military be for future military agression by Ukraine goverment ?
I think its clear from Feanors post and from the other posts here, that the Ukranian Army has been bled, many units aren't even UA units and what level control Kiev has other those units is dubious.

The UA has suffered casualties in trained men, and has suffered huge material losses, to say nothing of their supply situation regarding ammunition and fuel. If they do attack, it won't last long I'd imagine.

I think Porshenko agreed to the cease-fire and greater autonomy for the Donbass because he didn't have much choice, his bolt was shot, his fractured military units were pinned down or fleeing the battle area, his aircraft are shot down, his artillery is scattered and largely ineffectual, against crack Russian troops, what could anyone have done? Attacking now would be to throw what's left of the UA away on fruitless combat.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Rimasta is basically spot on. There remained three capable troop groupings in the north and west. But they were also depleted in resources, and capability for offensive action. The elite 1st Tank Bde took a beating, possibly from Russian army units, that unblocked Lugansk. The entire south was basically wide open (probably still is, with the exception of some defenses in Mariupol'). Russian and rebel forces could have swept past Mariupol' and into Zaporozhye. Or they could have struck heavily towards Slavyansk, smashing one of the remaining Ukrainian troop concentrations, and retaking the vital cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. This would give the rebels control of almost all of Donbass. They could even have pushed north along the border, retaking more of Lugansk region. In fact, depending on Russia's willingness to get involved directly, they could have done all 3. The ceasefire for Poroshenko is a blessing. And it's a sign of the strength of European pressure on Russia, which has no other reason to agree to a ceasefire now.
 
The ceasefire for Poroshenko is a blessing. And it's a sign of the strength of European pressure on Russia, which has no other reason to agree to a ceasefire now.
Putin has to think about military casualties unlike the leaders Soviet Union. The Europeans have keep buying Russian oil and natural gas; taxes from those commodities make up at least 50% of the Russian budget.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Situation on the Front

A Ukrainian blogger specializing in armored vehicles, claims that there is evidence that Ukrainian tanks were destroyed by PGMs, including a highly experimental ATGM called Hermes, and the Kitolov guided arty shell.

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/311130.html
http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/300878.html

A scary looking volunteer btln checkpoint near... Odessa. Because you know... there's a big chance of rebels showing up there.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/806685.html

Bezler is alive and well and still in Gorlovka. In an interview he describes a few things, including large numbers of prisoners (he claims they release conscripts and junior enlisted all the time, especially if relatives come to pick them up). He says they only hold on to officers for exchanges.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3791382.html

Despite the appearance of a ceasefire, arty exchanges continue.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3791717.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1028864.html

Ukrainian btln Aydar still seems to control Schastye, despite rebel attacks.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1029717.html

Battle damage and fresh graves in Lugansk.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1031769.html

Rebels in Donbass.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1032067.html

Ukrainian government sources claim 0 dead in 48 hours, but it's unlikely to be true.

http://military-informant.com/index...-ato-ne-pogib-ni-odin-ukrainskij-silovik.html

Pro-rebel sources describe heavy fighting around Debal'tsevo, including heavy arty exchanges.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/318727.html

The famous/infamous Babay is back in the conflict zone.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3789588.html

Ukrainian troops shoot down a UAV.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3awUDARIYI

Footage of destroyed Russian army vehicles, being presented as Ukrainian. Note the characteristic T-72B3 tanks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM8rr19L-KY

The DNR says they've pulled back their artillery, to the distances prescribed in the memorandum. I doubt it's true.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/news/6911-v-dnr-zayavili-ob-otvode-artillerii.html

Rebel HMG position. Note the winter clothes (Russian Army surplus) on him.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3787322.html?view=132676154#t132676154
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - Armed Forces

Ukrainian MinDef says that they still have 600 T-72s in storage.

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/310742.html

Vehicles of the MVD volunteer btln Holy Virgin Mary.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1433046.html

Ukraine intends to make two months of basic training mandatory for the entire population.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1433725.html

There will be a special format for coordinating the actions of volunteer btlns, and government forces, with government forces taking control of the logistics for the volunteer btlns.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1433376.html

Up-armored Nissan jeep for the 25th Airmobile Bde.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1434259.html

Cage armor is finally appearing on Ukrainian T-64s.

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/311473.html

Rebel BMP-2 in Donbass. Note that the rebel forces look very similar to Russian military in the 90s.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=225670&d=1411597074

Ukraine plans to halt arms exports during the war.

http://military-informant.com/index...prodavat-voennuyu-tekhniku-na-vremya-ato.html

Meanwhile T-72As from L'vov are headed to Nigeria.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1006049.html

Ukrainian volunteers are trying to import British Saxon armored trucks/APCs for Ukrainian volunteer btlns, but have run into bureaucratic problems.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1005607.html
http://military-informant.com/index...sannye-britanskie-broneviki-saxon-at-105.html

Ukrainian Kozak armored car was tested by the National Guard.

http://military-informant.com/index...noj-baze-natsionalnoj-gvardii-pod-kievom.html

Ukrainian soldiers report that they're being issued uniforms that come apart at the seams after weeks or even days of ordinary wear.

http://military-informant.com/index...ali-formu-kotoraya-raskhoditsya-po-shvam.html

Unconfirmed info on dead Russian soldiers, from Ukraine, in Orenburg.

http://newsru.com/russia/24sep2014/orenburg.html

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has found 17 000 defective flak jackets.

http://military-informant.com/index...tvetstvovali-ukazannomu-klassu-zashchity.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update - General Background

Peace march in Moscow, draws tens of thousands.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1029631.html

Turchinov visits Mariupol'.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1030574.html
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1031285.html

The EU has attached some heavy conditions to their 1bln of financial aid to Ukraine, including a requirement to publish the plans of what they will do with it, overall budget transparency requirements, passing of anti-corruption legislation, and reaching certain transparency standards in the operations of Naftogaz. This will be quite difficult.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1031426.html

There are planned power outages in Kiev and Kharkov due to shortages of electricity.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1033442.html

Naftogaz says that prices for consumers, on gas, could increase 4-fold.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1033929.html

The EU is considering importing Iranian gas.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1034582.html

Yatsenyuk mentions that there will be gas shut-offs in the winter, especially to non-paying customer, or in cold-snap to non-essential enterprises and social objects. What this will amount to in practice remains to be seen.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1032676.html

Ukrainian government sources claim that at least 1300 people have died (confirmed deaths) in Donbass alone. Rebel sources say 4000 dead, but their number is an estimate.

http://newsru.com/world/24sep2014/donbass.html

Japan passes additional sanctions against Russia.

http://newsru.com/world/24sep2014/japan_visit.html

A secret mass burial ground has been found near Donetsk. The Russian Duma demands an investigation.

http://newsru.com/russia/24sep2014/dead.html

Apparently a threatening letter from Putin to Poroshenko was leaked to the media. It threatens closing of Russian markets to Ukrainian goods.

http://newsru.com/world/23sep2014/dearslim.html

Ukrainian coal import will come from Russia as well as other countries.

http://vz.ru/news/2014/9/23/707109.html
 
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