Ukranian Crisis

[bdique]

IMHO Ukraine should negotiate because if it doesn't, then the loss of its two easternmost provinces can't be prevented any more. Nobody can guarantee that Putin would agree to stop intervening in the conflict with military means, but it's at least worth trying. And NATO will certainly do nothing as Ukraine in their eyes is simply not worth fighting for. They didn't even start supplying Ukraine with military equipment in order to defeat the separatists, so why would they send forces.
Of course this is only my opinion and events are taking an unfortunate path. One year ago nobody would have imagined that something like this was possible.

There is no humanitarian crisis i.e. genocide, or governments using disproportionate military force on unarmed protesters, so I don't think NATO will be taking any military action. Also, it isn't like Russia is massing multiple divisions/army groups or conducting mass mobilisations overtly.

 

[dprijadi]

There is no humanitarian crisis i.e. genocide, or governments using disproportionate military force on unarmed protesters, so I don't think NATO will be taking any military action. Also, it isn't like Russia is massing multiple divisions/army groups or conducting mass mobilisations overtly.

I think it is already established by the links from feanor posts that the Ukraine Military used and still using disproportionate military force on unarmed civlian. Though this fact is rarely if never reported in the western media sources.

and i agree there is no indication of russia massing troops on the borders like they are planning to invade.

I think Obama already stated that no one looking for open conflict with Russia in his official speech.

 

[Feanor]

I seriously doubt the rebels could hold more than the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Realistic estimates for their troop strength range from 10.000 to 12.000, what is still less than what the UA can muster. And in oblasts like Dniepropetrovsk public support for the rebels' actions has been much weaker as in Donetsk, as the local oligarchs funded pro-government demonstrations and propaganda.
To conquer a larger territory Russia would have to intervene with large numbers of troops, what would be answered by the western countries with harsh sanctions. Hopefully it won't get to that and all sides finally start negotiations soon, as the Ukrainian and Russian economy both suffer from the current situation.

Yes. It's very strange, but apparently Russia can't funnel enough volunteers or mercs to the rebels, and are resorting to using even Russian military personnel. Though the extent certainly remains unclear. That having been said, I think it's possible that the rebels manage to put together a force of 20 or 30 thousand, if they have the time.

People keep talking about negotiations. Why should the government of Ukraine negotiate? Why should a nation be forced to surrender the most lucrative part of it's territory? Just to please an imperialistic aggressor on it's border?

Hmm? What naive nonsense is this. Countries negotiate with imperialistic aggressors all the time. It's a necessity. If you try to find morality in international politics, you've lost your way. Countries are not people. They don't have morals. They have interests. Any coincidence those have with an appearance of morality is just that. Coincidence.

I honestly don't think they should negotiate on principle. If it does happen it will be a sad indictment of the EU and NATO that it stood idly by and watched yet more of Europe be consumed by the Putin greed machine.

Yes. Don't negotiate with a huge trading partner, and an extremely powerful neighbor. Fight until victory. Even if that victory is Russia's.... And of course it doesn't matter that people are dying, infrastructure is being destroyed, and the Ukrainian economy is failing. Principles are much more important than people's lives...

Yes I do feel a degree of emotion on this issue. Who will be next? If the EU and NATO show continued weakness on this then it does not bode well for the future. It's time to be strong and show some solidarity; Europe went through this in the last century with the USSR. On a bigger scale albeit.

I'm sorry but sanctions will not be enough.

The EU has taken a much tougher stance then what Russia counted on or hoped for. And the sanctions are having quite a serious effect on the Russian economy. Russia has financial resources, and a certain ability to absorb losses, but those resources and that ability are quite finite.

NATO needs to signal it's intentions by sending in a task force. US led, supported by a carrier group in the Black Sea, fighter and bomber forces in Poland and Turkey. They alert Putin to the idea that they are not fighting Russia but they are fighting the Rebel force. How can Russia object if it has no official troops there?

Russian can object to NATO involvement in principle. Remember what kind of a tantrum they threw over minor US presence in Poland. A much better question is, do you seriously think NATO should go to war with Russia? Even unofficially?

The nuclear warning works both ways and I have always believed that is a red herring and just a NATO excuse for doing nothing. Putin knows that the West is more than able to retaliate and won't consider that level of risk.

Is it worth finding out the hard way?

Oh I understand that EU membership isn't a magic bullet against corruption. Dealing with endemic corruption requires the political will to do so and even if Ukraine were admitted, it's at ebst a 50/50 chance that they would succeed.

What Eu membership would do is give them additional help in dealing with it and addictional incentives. Ukraine's first big problem is in dealing with the oligarchs and their influence and that won't be easy. They are defintely smart men and a number of them switched sides once the fighting started rather than find themselves under Ukrainian government scrutiny for aiding the russian irregular troops. IMO, anti-corruption measures may not really have a chance until the maidan protesters are of an age where they are old enough to be running the government and that is a decade or two off.

If they end up running the country, they will have to have changed themselves to the point where they are the corruption. I don't know that much about Poland, but I do know that Russian financial interests have no problems infiltrating countries like Bulgaria or the Czech Republic, which tells us a whole lot about the government there.

 

[Feanor]

I don't have time for an update post right now, but just so you guys know, the rebel offensive towards Lugansk seems to have succeeded. There was a major armored battle (by this conflicts standards) and the rebels seem to have restored communication between Russia and Lugansk, along the M-4 highway.

A photo-assortment here.

bmpd -

 

[gazzzwp]

Negotiate or not, if Russia wants its territory, there is little Ukraine itself can do about it. Further, putting a US carrier into the Black Sea would not be a good idea. Turkey would not allow it for starters, second if Turkey does allow it, it would be a stupid way to start WW3. Russia has right under the Monroe convention to destroy a Carrier group if it enters the Black Sea, and Russia can only carry that out fully and successfully with the use of a nuclear weapon. Even without the use of a nuclear weapon, an unacceptable damage might be done to a carrier group with conventional weapons, although I should not speculate on that.
In short, the only way a CBG enters the Black Sea is to start WW3, if it's not already in progress and nuclear weapons are being used. Playing this card while expecting Russia to blink would be a very reckless game wagering pretty much everything we have as a species.

Not if NATO declared it's intentions; to roll back the rebel forces. That by Putin's admission are not Russian anyway.

I heard Merkel's limp announcement this morning,

BBC News - EU set to tighten Russia sanctions 'within a week'

More evidence of a highly ineffective and useless alliance.

God forbid that Germany loses some of it's precious manufacturing income or has to pay a little more for it's gas this year.

What about Ukraine; what about the nation, it's people. it's soldiers fighting against overwhelming odds.

Am I the only one who thinks this is distasteful?

 

[Nick underscore]

BTW what is the max draft for the Bosporus? I looked in several places and couldn't find it.

Seems to change quite frequently, due to varying natural changes on the strait according to this 2011 study

"The maximum depth reaches 120 m at the entrance from the Black Sea,
and the lowest is recorded near the south entrance from the Sea of Marmara, which reach 36 m in the strait are two thresholds, one in the south, near Beikta, to 33 m
depth and another in the north by 61 m."
http://aerapa.conference.ubbcluj.ro/2010/pdf/Stefan_Romanescu.pdf

On NATO; Canada and US prioritising higher collective defence spending through upcoming conference in Wales this week.
-Obama, Harper discuss NATO summit, Iraq in phone call - White House | Reuters

Outside US contributions they will be pushed to find more funding, as pointed out here from a few days ago
-http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f23ead7e-2dc6-11e4-8346-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BxqOhkoS

Further news w.r.t NATO - new British led 10k division-sized RRF to be formed with further details released later this week by Cameron at summit. Seven NATO allies to create new rapid reaction force-report | Reuters

Ukrainian's government's made a proposal Friday to repeal a law that bans membership in military blocs. NATO Says It Would Respect Any Ukraine Decision to Try to Join Alliance - WSJ

I see Tusk has been elected EU president.. Possible that Merkel will begin to take a stronger stance? - Donald Tusk: A Champion for Eastern Europe in a Leading Role at EU - WSJ

EU have stated the next round of sanctions (round V) will be imposed, if no change in current course by RF forces in Ukriane. EU leaders deliver sanctions ultimatum to Russia over Ukraine | World news | theguardian.com

 

[swerve]

...
There is the fact this is the real world and its not governed by high ideals its governed by people so when Ukraine decided that rather then negotiate with the east portion of its country it would simply lay down the law and use its military power to crush any resistance rather then negotiate. It was taking the risk that it would actually be able to accomplish that goal. ....

As I recall, there was nobody even remotely legitimate to negotiate with. Elected & appointed officials - including members of Yanukovich's party - were thrown out of office by groups of armed men, & replaced with people nobody had ever heard of before. One 'leader' (soon replaced) had stood in the last election & got 0.2% of the local vote. How can you negotiate with someone so obviously unrepresentative? And in any case, it soon turned out that he was just a front man. The real leaders, some of them visible from the start & others initially in the background but later moving forward, were dominated by Russians. That is, Russians from Russia, not Ukrainian citizens. And it's since become obvious that they were acting on behalf of Moscow, which has recalled some of them to Russia & replaced them.

So, who could the government in Kiev negotiate with, from that lot? They'd forced out the people who Kiev could have negotiated with.

 

[swerve]

I think it is already established by the links from feanor posts that the Ukraine Military used and still using disproportionate military force on unarmed civlian. Though this fact is rarely if never reported in the western media sources.

and i agree there is no indication of russia massing troops on the borders like they are planning to invade.

I think Obama already stated that no one looking for open conflict with Russia in his official speech.

1) There is a large difference between using artillery against military targets located among civilians, & "using ... military force on unarmed civlian [sic]"/ As far as I can see, Ukraine hasn't deliberately targeted unarmed civilians. It's guilty, if you can call it that, of what every army used to do routinely, i.e. shelling any place from which it was being shot at, or where it thought the enemy was. Compared to what the Russian army did in Chechnya, for example, the Ukrainians seem to have been very civilised.

2) Russia has invaded. But it's done so on a limited scale. Why mass divisions on the border when it doesn't need to? The Ukrainian army is weak, after 23 years of neglect. Tank divisions aren't necessary.

 

[swerve]

Thanks for the correction. Here is an interesting article on this topic.
How The 1936 Montreux Convention Would Help Russia In A Ukraine War

From the convention:

Article 20.

In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.

Article 21.

Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.

If NATO is at war & Turkey is participating, or if Turkey feels threatened, the entire US navy can pass through, if the Turkish government gives permission, & it's pretty much up to Turkey to define the terms in this case.

 

[gazzzwp]

Well besides the ideological reasons that a government should be inclusive and listen to the needs of a large minority in there population, especially one that has shown it is willing to fight before its willing to be ignored and disenfranchised

There is the fact this is the real world and its not governed by high ideals its governed by people so when Ukraine decided that rather then negotiate with the east portion of its country it would simply lay down the law and use its military power to crush any resistance rather then negotiate. It was taking the risk that it would actually be able to accomplish that goal.
well it is true the reble forces have the backing and support of russia this is not by any stretch of the imagination a wholly russian resistance and frankly a responsible government should have taken the concerns of a major world power sharing a border with them into account before they decided to wage a military conflict with those ailed to it.

simply put Ukraine has to negotiate at some point because they do not govern, speak for and cannot silence the eastern portion of there country. The question is how much is the western portion willing to pay in blood treasure before they sit down and negotiate?
As things look right now (and things can change in a hurry as we have seen) the sooner they do the better as they are loosing the war they started. Not to mention its much harder to deal with a confident force that has defeated you on the battle field and a large group of citizens who have almost reason to give into its demands. Or faith that if they lay down there arms the government will hold to its side of the deal

There is one thing missing in your argument and that is that are the majority of people in the east actually bothered about who governs in Kiev and what their political leanings are?

The trouble is that as soon as the pro Euro government took over there appeared to be an uprising in the East; now who actually were these people? Were they actually local ordinary folk or were they Russian sponsored militia there to stir up the politics?

This is the problem when people use the phrase 'negotiate'. I see no evidence to suggest that it was the citizens in the east actually were responsible; it seemed to be Russian sponsored provocation.

To me the story line looks much more like this:

An uprising begins in Kiev towards a more pro EU stance.
Moscow objects for both political and military reasons and provokes the pro Russian populations by claiming that they are under threat from a 'Nazi' regime and that they had better take up arms and resist for the sake of their survival. Russia even gave them the arms and the man power to do so.

So Kiev negotiate? Well they might have to with an external power in order to survive.

Which ever way you look at it that is immoral.

 

[gazzzwp]

Yes. Don't negotiate with a huge trading partner, and an extremely powerful neighbor. Fight until victory. Even if that victory is Russia's.... And of course it doesn't matter that people are dying, infrastructure is being destroyed, and the Ukrainian economy is failing. Principles are much more important than people's lives...

Ah appeasement. Doesn't history prove that this costs more lives in the long run?

 

[narvi]

Ukraine's Border Guards patrol boat attacked by airplanes near Novoazovsk. Can't really tell if the source is valid, but the video shows air attack indeed. Beginning of separatist air force?

I can't include link due to post count, but the info can be also found on liveuamap.

 

[Feanor]

Ah appeasement. Doesn't history prove that this costs more lives in the long run?

From the perspective of the West this may be a valid point. But Ukraine has no other options. Either a continuing blood war ending in likely defeat, or negotiations.

1) There is a large difference between using artillery against military targets located among civilians, & "using ... military force on unarmed civlian [sic]"/ As far as I can see, Ukraine hasn't deliberately targeted unarmed civilians. It's guilty, if you can call it that, of what every army used to do routinely, i.e. shelling any place from which it was being shot at, or where it thought the enemy was. Compared to what the Russian army did in Chechnya, for example, the Ukrainians seem to have been very civilised.

There have been reports of indiscriminate firings on civilian vehicles in certain areas, by government troops. Though to be fair the rebels use civilian vehicles all the time. In some areas government troops fire on anything that moves.

2) Russia has invaded. But it's done so on a limited scale. Why mass divisions on the border when it doesn't need to? The Ukrainian army is weak, after 23 years of neglect. Tank divisions aren't necessary.

A little bit of facts. Russia has been, and currently is, massing troops at the Ukrainian border.

So, who could the government in Kiev negotiate with, from that lot? They'd forced out the people who Kiev could have negotiated with.

To be fair, the only national-level political figure who could have spoken for the east was Oleg Tsarev. He was violently beaten in the Rada, ended up in the hospital, and then fled east-ward. He was an elected member of the Rada, and he intended to run for president.

 

[Feanor]

Update - The Situation on the Front

Another battle near Avdeevka and Yasinovataya. Rebels claim 3 destroyed tanks, and one BMP-2, but the video only shows the BMP and one destroyed tank, still smoking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZatZjcX33w

One or two Ukrainian border guard patrol vessels were attacked. Allegedly by aircraft. Details are lacking, but photo and video is here.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/986003.html

Novosvetlovka is in rebel hands. They captured one T-64BM intact.

The situation is a little suspicious. On the one hand this matches rebel reports of their counter-attack to unblock Lugansk. On the other hand, the city was unblocked from the Russian side. It's quite possible that the attack came from inside Russia, though there is no way to say who exactly attacked. One or two T-72Bs were lost by the rebels.

http://military-informant.com/index...m-udalos-zakhvatit-ukrainskij-tank-bulat.html
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/974037.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3719294.html

Battle damage in Novosvetlovka.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AocrZfCeWk

Ukrainian sources report that some volunteer btlns (or parts of) have left the encirclement and broken out, but the numbers seem to be small.

http://newsru.com/world/31aug2014/avakovsays.html

Captured Ukrainian soldiers near Ilovaysk. The rebels say that these are the fighters that allegedly escaped the encirclement. The total numbers of captives are quite large. Rebels say 173.

Note the large number of similar brand new looking Kamaz trucks in the background, and how many of the rebel soldiers are well equipped. A lot of the rebels make a point to mention that they are locals, fighting for their land, but to be honest it doesn't look very convincing.

The rebels tell the captives that they will be used to rebuild the destroyed cities of the east. They also spend quite a bit of time telling the captives about destruction in the east, and use of some sort of chemical weapons, and phosphorus munitions. The prisoners don't respond.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/984747.html

An article dealing with Ukrainian prisoners in the east. They're spoken to by Zakharchenko (premier of the DNR) and they're being put to work.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/305870.html

Ukraine confirms the loss of one Su-25. Rebels claim they shot down either two or 4. One pilot was captured.

http://militarizm.livejournal.com/38165.html
http://militarizm.livejournal.com/38759.html
http://censor.net.ua/news/300269/te...let_letchik_dobralsya_k_svoim_presstsentr_ato

The rebels report that the remains of btln Donbass have surrendered. Their command has fled.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1401242.html

Battle damage in Donetsk.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/981660.html

More destroyed Ukrainian armor. Location or dates are unclear.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1050282.html

A photo surfaced of a T-72B3 tank, allegedly taken in Ukraine. The source is a sketchy twitter, and there has been no secondary confirmation.

Personal comment: to be clear currently all T-72s in the conflict zone come from Russia, regardless of variant. However it's rather unlikely that this particular variant is there.

http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/302121.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3718170.html

At Starobeshevo the rebels seem to have captured 6 T-64BV tanks and a BMP.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1402512.html

Another video of rebels capturing government equipment, could be the same vehicles as above.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c18B0B9zKY

 

[Feanor]

Update - Armed Forces

Rebels entering and leaving a small town. Location unclear. The locals seem mostly friendly.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1050546.html

Rebel T-72B in Novoazovsk.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/986830.html

Alleged French volunteers on the rebel side.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/304764.html

Captured and destroyed government equipment, on display at Donetsk.

http://hrapypris31.livejournal.com/175970.html

Ukrainian rebels have an Mi-2 civilian variant, but it's condition is unclear.

http://militarizm.livejournal.com/38644.html

A detailed photo-report on the rebels. The source is a Russian volunteer who drove supplies to the rebels from Russia. He explicitly mentions that some of the rebels are mercenaries, getting paid ~60 000 roubles a month. He also mentions they are veterans of various post-Soviet conflicts.

http://mij-gun.livejournal.com/120929.html
http://mij-gun.livejournal.com/121162.html

Russian paratroopers return to Russia, while Russia returns 63 Ukrainian service members that fled to Russia to escape the rebels advance.

http://newsru.com/russia/31aug2014/vernuli.html
http://twower.livejournal.com/1401752.html

Another homemade armored vehicle for the Ukrainian volunteer btlns.

http://military-informant.com/index...modelnyj-broneavtomobil-uchastvuet-v-ato.html

A Ukrainian UAZ jeep with a PKT mounted. Are they out of PKMs?

http://twower.livejournal.com/1400734.html

Two armored KrAZ trucks for the National Guard. The National Guard is also getting an Mi-8MTV-1 MEDEVAC mobilized from the private sector.

http://military-informant.com/index...aty-bronirovali-dlya-natsgvardii-2-kraza.html
http://military-informant.com/index...olet-dlya-evakuatsii-ranenykh-v-zone-ato.html

Ukrainian marines are getting a new medical evacuator on a BMP chassis.

http://military-informant.com/index...ovannuyu-sanitarnuyu-mashinu-na-baze-bmp.html

Ukrainian MoD will create a new counter-intelligence service.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/983084.html

Mariupol' is being fortified to defend against the rebels.

http://military-informant.com/index...oyatnomu-shturmu-so-storony-opolchentsev.html

Zaporozhye is also being fortified.

http://military-informant.com/index...chali-vozvodit-oboronitelnye-ukrepleniya.html

30 BTR-70s have been upgraded with cage armor for the Ukrainian army.

http://military-informant.com/index...tpravilis-30-ekranirovannykh-bronemashin.html

Volunteers in Ukraine have rebuilt an An-26 transport plane, that was in storage. It's going to the airforce.

http://military-informant.com/index...emontirovannyj-volonterami-samolet-an-26.html

A breakdown of terminology. 4 types of volunteer btlns currently exist. They're all light infantry, but have a few heavy weapons and vehicles.

Battalions of Territorial Defense - They're MoD formations, created out of volunteers and mobilized personnel. 31 are supposed to be formed.

Special Purpose Btlns of the MVD - They're essentially special police units, meant for security and patrolling the streets. 33 btlns and companies are being formed.

Reserve Btlns of the National Guard - They're MVD volunteer formations, that select their own officers. They received some heavy weapons, up to and including ZU-23-2s. 3 have been formed, one more is being formed.

Right Sector Corps - An all volunteer formation, accountable to nobody and no-one. Has no formalized structure, and has obtained weapons in various ways.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/974392.html

 

[Feanor]

Update - General Background

Merkel says that no military solution to the conflict in Ukraine is possible, and that Germany will not supply weapons to Ukraine.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/984504.html

Putin calls for meaningful negotiations about the statehood of eastern Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/russia/31aug2014/putinsaysukr.html

German media reports that there will be 5 new NATO bases in Eastern Europe.

http://newsru.com/world/31aug2014/natoplans.html

The car driving the DNR premier Zakharchenko was shot up, but he survived unharmed.

http://newsru.com/world/30aug2014/zaharchenkocar.html

Slovakia threatens to veto further sanctions against Russia.

http://newsru.com/world/31aug2014/slovakia.html

A new humanitarian convoy in Russia is preparing to enter Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/russia/30aug2014/konvoy2.html

Pro-Ukraine rallies in Odessa.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/983519.html

Strelkov has been sighted - in Russia.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3717808.html

 

[Farbanks]

Care to elaborate? Why exactly would EU membership for Ukraine lead to the collapse of the RF?

You missunderstood, I said that without Ukraine in Russian sphere of influence, but instead building ties with west RF would probably not last long enough to see Ukraine as the part of EU. That may be a bit overstated statement, but I try to explain scenario where this is possible:

1. As it stands right now, Ukraine would not gain EU membership any time soon. It will not surprise me, that even if they tried really hard to root out the corruption & stabilize economy & fighting will end tomorrow, with east in Ukraine hands it will take 10 years at least. 20 or 30 years time frame is much more likely.
2. Given (1.), RF is in the long run, even with Eurasian union, in fact really weak structure. They are loosing their population rapidly due to the low birth rate. They are keeping their total numbers steady, thanks to the imigration, but this is likely to change. Predictions for 2050 are somwhere between 90-125M (today it is 145M)
3. Russian Federation has numerous problems with its federal subjects. Separatist movements do not only exist in Chechnya and Georgia, but also in Osetia, Dagestan, Abchaszia etc... Should RF be weakend by something (demographic problems, major failure in foregin policy or just relative loose of strenght compared to EU or NATO), these separatist will fight again for independence from RF, further weakening it.

Finally : Borders of RF( or Eurasian union) are too long, and too exposed to potencial attack in the future. Dragging the Ukraine into Russian sphere of influence plays key role in consolidating them. And, from Russian POW, NATO is potencial enemy, so Ukraine in NATO (or EU) is a gun pointed right on Moscow.
OFC, idea of NATO or China attacking RF is ridicolous right now, but in 30 or 40 years ? Who knows? Remeber the world in 1984/74 ? All RF can know for sure is, that having great natural resources, and not begin able to protect them properly is, from historical perspective, dangerous combination. China in 18/19th century is just one example.

So in this scenario, if RF is not able to consolidate its borders with europe, and find the way of dealing with demography, their internal economical and structural problems(one sided economy, poor quality of public education, non-inovative private sector) combined with separatist tendencies will weaken RF to extend where some countrys may start to gain more and more influence in Russia basicly turing RF into state of China in 19th century.

Just for the record, I do not believe that EU will last for another 30 or 40 years, at least not in this form.

I am not claiming this to be main reason for Putin to do, what he is doing right now, I just see it as one of the possible scenarios for Russia in next decades.

If you are interested in further disscusion, we should probably do it through messages, or start new thread if more people are intrested.

 

[swerve]

Georgia & Abkhazia are not parts of Russia. Georgia is an independent state, & has been since 1991. It's been recognised as independent by Russia since then. Abkhazia is a region of Georgia which rebelled, with Russian help, & is de facto a Russian protectorate. It's certainly not in rebellion against Russia!

 

[Feanor]

1. As it stands right now, Ukraine would not gain EU membership any time soon. It will not surprise me, that even if they tried really hard to root out the corruption & stabilize economy & fighting will end tomorrow, with east in Ukraine hands it will take 10 years at least. 20 or 30 years time frame is much more likely.

I think not at all is much more likely.

2. Given (1.), RF is in the long run, even with Eurasian union, in fact really weak structure. They are loosing their population rapidly due to the low birth rate. They are keeping their total numbers steady, thanks to the imigration, but this is likely to change. Predictions for 2050 are somwhere between 90-125M (today it is 145M)

That's no longer the case. Birthrates are now in the positive, in Russia. Population of Russia prior to the annexation of Crimea was ~140 million. So now it should be 142 million or so.

3. Russian Federation has numerous problems with its federal subjects. Separatist movements do not only exist in Chechnya and Georgia, but also in Osetia, Dagestan, Abchaszia etc... Should RF be weakend by something (demographic problems, major failure in foregin policy or just relative loose of strenght compared to EU or NATO), these separatist will fight again for independence from RF, further weakening it.

You're getting your details wrong. Georgia is not a federal subject of Russia, it's an independent country. The same goes for Abkhazia. There are no separatism problems in Ossetia. South Ossetia is also independent but wants to be annexed (for good reason), North Ossetia is a quiet backwater. Dagestan is a little closer to the mark, but things are fairly quiet there right now. Ingushetiya would be closer to the mark, if you're looking for major areas of instability. That having been said, these regions are tiny and could be readily reduced to rubble by the Russian military. The First Chechen War showed that even in defeat, that kind of destruction effectively prevents anyone else from seeking independence. The price is just too high.

Finally : Borders of RF( or Eurasian union) are too long, and too exposed to potencial attack in the future. Dragging the Ukraine into Russian sphere of influence plays key role in consolidating them. And, from Russian POW, NATO is potencial enemy, so Ukraine in NATO (or EU) is a gun pointed right on Moscow.
OFC, idea of NATO or China attacking RF is ridicolous right now, but in 30 or 40 years ? Who knows? Remeber the world in 1984/74 ? All RF can know for sure is, that having great natural resources, and not begin able to protect them properly is, from historical perspective, dangerous combination. China in 18/19th century is just one example.

Maybe. We will see.

So in this scenario, if RF is not able to consolidate its borders with europe, and find the way of dealing with demography, their internal economical and structural problems(one sided economy, poor quality of public education, non-inovative private sector) combined with separatist tendencies will weaken RF to extend where some countrys may start to gain more and more influence in Russia basicly turing RF into state of China in 19th century.

Consolidating borders with Europe is unnecessary. Those are the safest borders Russia has.

 

[dprijadi]

2. Given (1.), RF is in the long run, even with Eurasian union, in fact really weak structure. They are loosing their population rapidly due to the low birth rate. They are keeping their total numbers steady, thanks to the imigration, but this is likely to change. Predictions for 2050 are somwhere between 90-125M (today it is 145M)

If you are interested in further disscusion, we should probably do it through messages, or start new thread if more people are intrested.

Great post, i think you should create another thread and discuss these further..

about the population, here's some interesting post from mr lee kuan yew.. i think that symptom happened more severely in US and Europe including Japan..

Warning Bell for Developed Countries: Declining Birth Rates - Forbes