Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

I don't think any thing Putin's done in Minsk has mattered nearly as much as how much the German economy is tied into Russia and their consequent unwillingness to do much of anything about the situation. Nothing sabotages diplomatic efforts like bringing large numbers of highly-meh parties into it to make it diplomacy by committee.

Exactly why an "out" was provided.

Giving the West a way to pretend that Russia isn't a party to the conflict would only work if people think it's plausible and if Russia is trying to de-escalate the situation-neither of which is the situation. Even the Finns and Swedes are getting angry about this.

What can I say. It wasn't the smartest move. I understand the motivation behind it though.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Obama admin moves battle tanks back into Europe as Russian troops invade Ukraine | Consortium of Defense Analysts

unverified from secondary source

 

[gf0012-aust]

You don't seem to understand what I meant, perhaps I was unclear. T-72Bs with K-5 are from Russian stock. All T-72s in the conflict zone are from Russian stock. There are T-72Bs in storage in Russia (even some T-90s are in storage). These are the T-72B mod 1989. It's a regular T-72B outfitted with K-5. They were produced 1989-1992 at UVZ for the Soviet/Russian Army.

I'll give a breakdown so this is more clear.

T-72B - a regular T-72B with K-1 tiles. They look like bricks all over the turret and front glacis.
T-72B mod 1989 - a regular T-72B but with K-5 tiles, looking like a clamshell on the turret. It retains the Luna-2M IR projector, and has characteristic gaps between the K-5 tiles on the turret.
T-72BA - a hodge podge of upgrades that include engine replacement, new comm gear, and K-5 era tiles. Externally identical/extremely similar to the T-72B mod 1989.
T-72B3 - a T-72B with Sosna-U sight, thermals, new comm gear, and K-5 ERA. You should see the Sosna-U sight box right behind the old gunner's sight. It does not carry the Luna-2 IR searchlight.

A note of interest, Ukrainian T-72s are not monkey models. Ukraine inherited Soviet T-72s which are line T-72A and B models.

ta for that.

clears it up but doesn't alter the fact that russia is engaged in a phony war stage.

 

[Twain]

Once again, it's not a comparison. Sometimes I wonder if you actively ignore the arguments I'm making.

Likewise I'm sure

 

[gf0012-aust]

Lets play nice..... this is a difficult enough thread as it is....

 

[Waylander]

If the Russian leadership really thinks that it can now throw every pretence of not being openly engaged in the conflict out the window it may have miscalculated badly.

First topic in every news yesterday evening was about regular russian troops entering the south-east of Ukraine in addition to all the "irregular" russian soldiers which decided to spend their vacations in the Donbass instead of the beach and where apparently able to take their gear and vehicles with them.

In summary and plain worde our chancellor said that while we still prefer a diplomatic solution the whole situation goes down the drain anyway. She, as well as others like france, supports more extensive sanctions which will be number one topic at the EU summit this saturday.

Talk about getting even our reluctant government and population to highly despise the current russian course of action and act accordingly.

I still don't think that the Russian government really thought about the long term effects of their actions. Whatever remains of Ukraine will be hostile and heavily pro western.

The relations with the EU and US are going to be sour for some long time and even when sanctions are lifted one day western companys will be very reluctant to invest in Russia while the governments try to get out of their dependsnce on Russian oil and gas giving Russia less and less leverage with it.

NATO forces in europe which were shrinking and less and less prepared for conventional conflict on european soil will at least partly reverse this trend with presence in eastern europe getting a huge boost.

Apart from some nationalistic chest pumping along the lines of "we managed to bring some rightly russian soil back to mother russia" there are no advantages to Russia. The Krim and whatever they grap of Eastern Ukraine is going to be a financial drain.

 

[the concerned]

This could also go the other way round . In October when the next elections take place if this conflict is still going on and pro Russian separatists are still gaining ground there are going be serious questions as to whether being part of a EU that is not willing to stand up for Ukraine is worth the price. I know we are condemning Russia and providing light sanctions put the time of the elections will coincide with the delivery of the French warships which you can bet Russia will spin to say actually EU countries support Russian interests.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I know we are condemning Russia and providing light sanctions put the time of the elections will coincide with the delivery of the French warships which you can bet Russia will spin to say actually EU countries support Russian interests.

there have been discussions about whether the 2 Mistrals can be purchased by NATO and used to flag the 2 NATO amphib groups

 

[stojo]

Which is exactly why the Maidan protesters want in the EU, to stop the corruption.

You are correct as far as hopes of the pro-western Maidan youth go. One note on reality however.

It is ridiculous to think that EU membership, or EU in general, can, somehow magically, solve problems with corruption and general system inefficiency of the eastern European countries.

Take a look at Romania and Bulgaria, both of which are members of EU for years. Corruption is still sky high, so much so, that Bulgaria is denied access to major EU funds. And it is not just corruption, that is the problem. There you have two EU member states, with completely failing democratic process.

Former Romanian vice Prime Minister is facing charges of attempting electoral fraud, and in Bulgaria, printing facility associated with government attempted to print no less than 350.000 illegal ballots. Both countries are a mess, and EU membership changed nothing in that respect.

Precisely for that reason, EU, struggling with its internal problems, does not want any more failed member states. As far as Balkans goes (with the exception of Croatia, that had major support from Germany), and the rest of non-EU eastern Europe, policy of EU is - keep them away from membership, but continuously press their political elites to keep declaring their commitment to future EU membership, although EU doesn't want them...

Same thing goes for Ukraine. Just before this whole mess started, there was a good article on how Ukrainian chances of becoming EU member are ziltch...

Ukraine, like Turkey, won

So, I understand hopes of Maidan protesters, however, those are totally devoid of reality. The only success of anti-oligarch, anti-corruption Maidan, was subsequent election of arch-oligarch for president.

 

[Blackshoe]

there have been discussions about whether the 2 Mistrals can be purchased by NATO and used to flag the 2 NATO amphib groups

I've also seen some people discussing how they could be seized by the courts as part of the Yukos settlement (if the $50 bil are not other wise forthcoming).

Lawfare is a truly cruel and vicious thing.

 

[swerve]

I agree that Conspiracies shouldn't really be brought up here... But Relboon has a great point. As the Russian U.N. ambassador pointed out... Kiev has been hiding some things. Churkin: Ukraine Should Allow Access to MH17 Audio Files | News | The Moscow Times

So no one here should say it was the Rebels who shot down the plane.. No definitive proof is present at all.

Read the thread. This is nonsense, a Russian official trying to confuse matters.

Ukraine didn't 'send' MH17 into that zone. The route is pretty much identical to the route it had flown on other days, & the routes of other airliners on the same day. It was the route in the flight plan filed before it took off.

Churkin is lying.

 

[crest]

reading multiple reports that novoazovsk has fallen

http://rt.com/news/183368-ukraine-novoazovsk-kiev-troops/

Kiev admits losing control of Novoazovsk | Russia Beyond The Headlines

lots of moving parts still but looks like the "third front" is stable, Also reports of Ukrainian in full on retreat at least initially mariupol looks like there defensive line at this point i have no idea were they are making a stand to the north east.
Hard choices for the Ukrainian army here do they keep up there assaults on don and las (most likely) or do they try to keep the third front from either linking up with the rebel forces or possibly crimea? a freighting prospect considering how often they get cut off and surrounded. One thing im sure of logistically this is more then there air assets can keep up with. Helo pilots for the Ukraine are one brave group of individuals

 

[Nick underscore]

IMF signed-off the 'reviewed' $17b loan two-year stabilization package to the Urkaine Govt.
UPDATE 1-IMF approves loan tranche for Ukraine, warns of risks | Reuters

The promised second tranche of $1.7b will go through with the following subsequent tranches combined. Ukraine managed to satisfy most bailout conditions, although have failed to meet program targets;

"..including state budget, level of net-international reserves at the central bank, and the deficits of Naftogaz, the state-run oil and gas company."

Ukriane received the first IMF loan tranche of $3.16b in early May.

Currently, Ukraine is expected to receive a total of $27b from international donors i.e. IMF, World Bank, US & the EU. Total loans rec'd for this year ~$14 billion. There is also further talk of EBRD potentially opening a $10b loan facility.

 

[Feanor]

The route is pretty much identical to the route it had flown on other days

I've run across a lot of info that indicates a change in the flight plan. Previously the liner flew over the Azov sea, further south. This time it was changed, taking it through the warzone. Is this not the case?

The Flight Path of MH17 Was Changed. July 17 Plane Route was over the Ukraine Warzone | Global Research

 

[harms]

I've run across a lot of info that indicates a change in the flight plan.

I have read that Crimean airspace was closed to Ukranian air traffic controllers and there was a thunder storm just north of Crimea at the time of the shot down, thats why it was directed over Donetsk region.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A new rebel-sourced map. Note how the offensive towards Severo-Donetsk and Lisichansk seems to have failed. And of course, if this is correct, Mariupol' is about to be surrounded.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/303924.html

Pro-rebel sources say Mariupol' has been surrounded.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/301196.html

A large batch of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. Where and under what circumstances is unclear, but the rebels are claiming that they've advanced on Starobeshevo and defeated a National Guard unit there.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwKB-I5IYAAVZBm.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwMqFeuIcAE_CGD.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwMp9lXIYAAOPme.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwMoV67CIAAg1oD.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwMoVxWCAAA8tdO.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwMnSwiIYAAj1wP.png:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ9aWLIcAA5uGC.png:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4LNLIQAAewil.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4LOMIEAAsP4l.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4LJUIAAAfeAh.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4LGdIIAMMdK-.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4ETGIUAETuje.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4EhCIUAEkT5j.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4EZLIAAA6RhK.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJ4EB8IUAA-RZs.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJulw0IEAAdWs3.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwH6LadCMAA9M9I.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwI7Q0XIYAAEsYu.jpg:large
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224570&d=1409281978
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224567&d=1409281887
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224569&d=1409281942
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=224568&d=1409281911

Photos of a Ukrainian unit hit by Grad fire.

http://pivopotam.livejournal.com/300707.html

A school burning in Donetsk.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/977275.html

5th Territorial Btln flees the conflict zone, going all the way back to western Ukraine.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/1049217.html

Saur-Mogila in rebel hands.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3710748.html

And a massive pro-Ukrainian rally in Mariupol'.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/729909.html

Rebel artillery near Krasnodon.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/981180.html

The rebels also captured a second Msta-S near Starobeshevo.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/972670.html

Rebels with a rare high-caliber sniper rifle.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/981266.html

Kiev troops and volunteers.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3716333.html

Ukrainian forces near Mariupol'.

https://imageshack.com/i/kqifkXZKj
https://imageshack.com/i/f0RH1Iz7j
https://imageshack.com/i/ipR9EtLAj
https://imageshack.com/i/ey9gNP2Tj
https://imageshack.com/i/id8l8YdBj

Column of Russian trucks on railroad, near Bryansk. They're headed towards the Ukrainian border.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/731800.html

Locals building fortifications around Mariupol'.

http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/732535.html

UN says that Ukraine as well as the rebels, are responsible for human rights abuses.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/0...ro-russian-rebels-ukraine-military-targeting/
http://www.ohchr.org/RU/NEWSEVENTS/Pages/Media.aspx

Ukrainian MinDef published a story about two Ukrainian officers who blew themselves up using handgrenades, rather them be captured, with 12 Russian VDV soldiers. However a Ukrainian volunteer who was released from rebel captivity promptly revealed the story to be a lie, reporting that he saw one of the officers (who blew themselves up) alive and well in rebel hands.

The Ukrainian MinDef promptly deleted the story from their website.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1399981.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3715161.html

A video of a look into a rebel machine shop, fixing captured vehicles and arty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyYOwPgkXik

There were reports that the Lugansk MachineBuilding plant was being moved from Lugansk into Russia. Ukrainian sources claim that's not the case.

http://newsru.com/world/29aug2014/laganskiy.html

Russian MinDef denies stories of 100 Russian VDV soldiers being killed in one incident.

http://newsru.com/russia/29aug2014/refutation.html

Russian polls show that domestic support for Russian military intervention in Ukraine is decreasing.

http://newsru.com/russia/29aug2014/noagress.html

The rouble continues falling, to 37.

http://newsru.com/finance/29aug2014/dollarubl.html

A nice Russian-language analysis of a video of a T-72B with K-5 era, filmed by Ukrainian sources in the conflict zone. Aside from the strange white stripes, the vehicle perfectly fits with what I said earlier. It's a Russian T-72B mod 1989, that went through a minor incremental upgrade (installing the atmospheric data sensor) sometime in the 90s. It's recently out of storage.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2014/08/72_29.html

A Ukrainian volunteer says that the vehicles they're pulling out of storage are in absolutely awful conditions, and that the reason territorial btlns are not getting vehicles because there are no vehicles to give them.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1399156.html

Putin issued an emergency statement requesting that the rebels create humanitarian corridors for letting the Ukrainian soldiers return to their families.

http://newsru.com/russia/29aug2014/putinstates.html

The Ukrainian government says that the reason they mobilized poorly trained personnel, and used them in roles other then their reservist jobs is.... *drumroll* Russian sabotage.

Personal comment: this is why I have a hard time taking anything they take seriously.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1399693.html

Family members of the Ukrainian soldiers surrounded in the conflict zone, have besieged the Ministry of Defense. They're demanding to speak with the Ukrainian MinDef. They're also demanding that vehicles and heavy equipment be provided to the volunteer btlns.

http://military-informant.com/index...kh-blokirovali-zdanie-minoborony-v-kieve.html

Ukrainian troops are moving into the Chernigov, Kharkov, and Sumskaya regions.

http://military-informant.com/index...ekhniki-v-prigranichnye-rajony-s-rossiej.html

Poland says NATO members are willing to sell weapons to Ukraine.

http://military-informant.com/index...o-gotovnosti-nato-prodat-oruzhie-ukraine.html

Note, the statement about currently serving Russian service members in the rebel ranks comes from the rebels themselves.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1398314.html

President Poroshenko says that the fall of Ilovaysk is the fault of traitors.

http://military-informant.com/index...yve-oborony-ilovajska-vinovaty-predateli.html

Lugansk administration reports that only some citizens have been able to receive Russian humanitarian aid, and the situation in the city remains critical.

http://newsru.com/world/28aug2014/lugansk.html

Another report of captured Russian VDV soldiers.

http://newsru.com/world/28aug2014/new_sa.html

Families of Russian soldiers besieged the unit HQ, demanding answers. They were told that the soldiers are not in Ukraine, but in Rostov region and they will be given a chance to contact their families soon.

http://newsru.com/russia/28aug2014/kostroma.html

 

[Feanor]

I have read that Crimean airspace was closed to Ukranian air traffic controllers and there was a thunder storm just north of Crimea at the time of the shot down, thats why it was directed over Donetsk region.

That would explain it. However it would mean that the flight path was changed. It certainly wasn't identical to the previous ones.

 

[swerve]

It wasn't identical to the previous two days, but neither was it an unusual or novel flight path. Other airliners had overflown the place where it was shot down, on the same day. Pretty much the same route had been followed by MH17 before.

Everything was normal. Well, except for it being shot down. There was no suspicious redirection by Ukraine, nothing odd or unusual about its route. It couldn't possibly have been confused with Putin's aeroplane (that one's particularly crazy). It was a normal flight on a normal day behaving completely normally.

Note that Russian news sources have published false routes for it, with odd route changes. They're invented, & show only that their authors are unprincipled, evil, lying bastards. The real route is known, & was recorded at the time by uninvolved non-Ukrainian people & publicly available on the internet before it was known the aircraft had been shot down.

Anyone repeating any of the conspiracy theory stuff is either an idiot, or lying. I assume that all the Russian officials & politicians who repeat it know the truth but choose to lie for personal gain (as in their continued careers). Lying seems to have become the default mode of speech for Russian officials & politicians in the last few months.

 

[Feanor]

Note that Russian news sources have published false routes for it, with odd route changes. They're invented, & show only that their authors are unprincipled, evil, lying bastards. The real route is known, & was recorded at the time by uninvolved non-Ukrainian people & publicly available on the internet before it was known the aircraft had been shot down.

Anyone repeating any of the conspiracy theory stuff is either an idiot, or lying. I assume that all the Russian officials & politicians who repeat it know the truth but choose to lie for personal gain (as in their continued careers). Lying seems to have become the default mode of speech for Russian officials & politicians in the last few months.

Russian politicians and officials have been lying routinely for much longer then that. Not to derail the thread, but I'm constantly surprised by the level of naivete surrounding modern day Russia in the west. As if a decade of incompetence multiplied by corruption and mixed with a dose of liberal ideology would change millenia-old ways. Russia is what Russia always was. Russia. Trying to see it as something other then that is wishful thinking or self-delusion.

 

[dprijadi]

Feanor , where would the militia army stopped their advance , based on your current estimate of situation ? do you think they will go for odessa and stop there ? or will they go to kiev ?

and did the goverment force lost their air support / denied over the battlefield ?

and do you see similarity in tactics used , with small highly trained "volunteers" leading the militia, like how the US Special Force did in adghanistan during the initial war ?