Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Update.

Rebel sources claim they've surrounded Debal'tseve.

http://military-informant.com/index...ennye-popali-v-okruzhenie-pod-debaltsevo.html

Meanwhile an element of the 30th Mech Bde (96 soldiers) broke out of encirclement. But only 43 of them made it out. The rest are dead, or prisoners.

However it appears that other elements of the 95th Airmobile, and 30th Mech are still surrounded, and being destroyed, between Torez and Antratsit.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - О положении 30-й бригады
зри в корень - Две трети попавших в окружение житомирÑких бойцов ÐТО погибли под обÑтрелами

Ukrainian sources claim they have Popasnaya surrounded, with 600 rebels in there.

zloy_odessit -

However, the rebels have smashed Stepanovka completely, and are claiming they're approaching Saur-Mogila again. There are large quantities of destroyed armor and trucks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYBbwnBrabI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsfXFJg8TaI

Rebels near Lugansk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² ЛуганÑке

Rebels in Miusinsk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ДÐРовцы в МиуÑинÑке, ЛуганÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ð»Ð°ÑÑ‚ÑŒ
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - МиуÑинÑк

Russian troops 20 kms from Izvarino border checkpoint.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ждут раÑтаможки на Изварино

Lack of dogtags in the Ukrainian military makes ID of their dead difficult.

http://military-informant.com/index...elementarnye-zhetony-s-lichnymi-nomerami.html

Mysteries abound... Buk SAM units that two months ago were in Ukrainian military hands, were spotted inside... Russia.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Дивизион ЗРК "Бук", Ñ Ð½Ð¾Ð¼ÐµÑ€Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ 331 и 333 ÑоответÑтвенно

Video of the semi-empty trucks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcWzAfgMPBM&list=UU16niRr50-MSBwiO3YDb3RA

And photos.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ð“ÑƒÐ¼Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ñ€Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ñ‰ÑŒ ДонбаÑÑу от РоÑÑии, в 20 км от роÑÑийÑкого Донецка

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says they're worried about attacks on the humanitarian convoy.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â ÌÈÄå ÐÔ áîÿòñÿ çà ãóìàíèòàðíûé ãðóç è æäóò ïðîâîêàöèé: äèâåðñàíòû ìîãóò ïîäîðâàòü ãðóçîâèêè êîíâîÿ

The OSCUkraine to stop limiting freedom of speech.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ОБСЕ призывает влаÑти Украины отказатьÑÑ Ð¾Ñ‚ законодательных положений угрожающих Ñвободе СМИ

Meanwhile Ukraine passed sanctions against Russia, that include a point dealing with a total cessation of gas transit to Europe.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - ПоÑледние дни киевÑкого режима.

The night of August 14th 3 Ukrainian MiG-29s were raised on emergency, and flew at low altitude of the capital.

http://military-informant.com/index...revoge-istrebiteli-prikryvayushchie-kiev.html

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

we've seen footage of trucks that are not only half full, but almost empty

I'm not sure how they could have their contents stolen as they were under military escort all the way

I don't know, but when I visited some Russian Army garrison towns and bases back in the late 1990s (latter Yeltsin years) -- when times were so bad that some Russian soldiers were committing suicide because they hadn't been paid or received rations in many a month, but death benefits were still being paid, so rather than watch their wives and children starve, you get the picture -- soldiers looted everything that wasn't nailed down, and some stuff that was. Many vehicles were inoperable because various parts had been "appropriated" and sold on the black market. They painted the tires of the undriveable vehicles black to hide how ancient the tires on them were, because of course the good tires were -- gone!

I realize things are much, much better now in Russia, but the obvious answer, if anything was looted from the trucks, is the military who are manning and escorting the convoy themselves -- and/or whoever was in charge of collecting the aid and delivering it to the site where the trucks were being loaded, those somebodies also sharing a cut with the military and whoever else was in charge.

It's also possible the trucks were sent half-empty and mostly empty for some inscrutable reason no one has figured out yet. It doesn't make sense, unless they never planned to actually deliver the aid, but just make a show of trying to, or they planned to stuff them with weapons and ammo and/or "volunteers" or something after the journos had their look-sees, or, er, something.

Or maybe they had all those trucks, but not much humanitarian aid (for whatever reason) to put in them, and their orders were to send all those trucks, so they did, with some or many carrying only partial loads. I haven't been back to Russia in many years, so I have no idea. Back when, such a weird thing could have happened. These days, I just don't know.

 

[alexkvaskov]

Every news website over last 24hr carries a profile picture of a separatist armored vehicle in Donetsk. Its on the BBC now under "Ukraine 'hits Russia armoured column' amid aid impasse". Can anyone help identify it? Looks like an upgunned BMP2?

Do you mean this article?

BBC News - Ukraine 'hits Russia armoured column' amid aid impasse

The vehicle is a 122mm self-propelled arty piece.

 

[Feanor]

Every news website over last 24hr carries a profile picture of a separatist armored vehicle in Donetsk. Its on the BBC now under "Ukraine 'hits Russia armoured column' amid aid impasse". Can anyone help identify it? Looks like an upgunned BMP2?

If the photo is the one alexkvaskov found, then it's a 2S1 Gvozdika, it's a Self-Propelled Artillery piece (122mm). It has nothing to do with BMP-2s. The chassis is an MT-LB, and the gun is a D-30 howitzer.

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S1_Gvozdika"]2S1 Gvozdika - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

 

[Twain]

Numerous reports of fighting in Luhansk

https://twitter.com/LUGANSK_TODAY/status/500538123785605120

https://twitter.com/apravda/status/500390670306377728

zloy_odessit -

ÐачалаÑÑŒ битва за ЛуганÑк (обновлÑетÑÑ) — 23:31 (добавлено фото) | informator.lg.ua

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0oK3mu4Q6o

DNR says they received reinforcements

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjAvnUa1Wak&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop

I'd say the claims are believable considering the number of recent reports about border crossings.

 

[Vegan-Zombie]

Uh... Is this real? It looks like a BTR-82A. As far as I know the Ukrainians aren't known to operate the type.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GffdgaWKZSk

You can clearly see its a BPPU turret at 0:18, and that you can see the barrel of the coax extending outwards out of it's case, which is not present in the 80A variant.

Another video shot from behind...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NydKpqZ1sIM

And here's another video of the same person... Notice the Ukrainian license plate at 0:34

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcg2cHv-_g8

If it isn't fake... Russia really has no hope at denying that they aren't arming the rebels..

 

[swerve]

we've seen footage of trucks that are not only half full, but almost empty

Ah yes. I've now seen that. A row or two of boxes behind the cab, & nothing else.

 

[swerve]

There's also this from the BBC: (oops! can't post the url!) BBC News - Ukraine crisis: BBC finds Russian aid trucks 'almost empty'

My thoughts while looking at the video -- he shows a truck half-filled with what appears to be drinking water -- was that sometimes when refueling at the the destination might be impossible or dicey and/or the convoy might be held up for some time or have to creep slowly, trucks are not filled up all the way to save fuel. I've seen it done before (UNHCR water trucks in war zones). I'm not saying that's the reason, just offering an observation.

Again, my apologies for my goofy screen name. I never thought I'd actually post here.

Half empty with water is OK. Full to the brim with water would probably overload it. Nobody designs a lorry on the basis of filling it with water. Most loads are lighter, & it's a waste to max out on space when you're very far below your weight limit.

But some of 'em are definitely almost empty, & they've been travelling across peaceful country where they can buy diesel very easily.

 

[Nick underscore]

But some of 'em are definitely almost empty, & they've been travelling across peaceful country where they can buy diesel very easily.

One reason that was provided was due to the potential number of breakdowns likely within the convoy structure. I'm sure there is an element of truth in that.. From a PR perspective it also makes sense to maintain an image. 2k tons isn't a lot when considered the convoy is in the region of 260-290 in total from mixed reports

One western media outlet sourced a recent video of the seperatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko (DNR) and the mention of a large counter offensive in next few days. 1,200 new recruits and 150+ vehicles (inc ~30 Tanks) have arrived from recent training in the RF over last few months. Video: Rebel leader in Ukraine says forces bolstered by '1,200 troops trained in Russia' - Telegraph

Would explain the witnessed military vehicle convoys crossing over in Ukriane over the last 48hrs or so.

EDIT: Sorry Twain, is the same video imbedded, albeit a little more detail from the article

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Half empty with water is OK. Full to the brim with water would probably overload it. Nobody designs a lorry on the basis of filling it with water. Most loads are lighter, & it's a waste to max out on space when you're very far below your weight limit.

But some of 'em are definitely almost empty, & they've been travelling across peaceful country where they can buy diesel very easily.

Apparently you missed my follow-up at #1297.

 

[Twain]

Would explain the witnessed military vehicle convoys crossing over in Ukriane over the last 48hrs or so.

Considering the number of reported border crossings from Russia, it wouldn't surprise me if some of those numbers are actually low. Marynivka is in separatist territory again and no one is watching that border crossing.

EDIT: Sorry Twain, is the same video imbedded, albeit a little more detail from the article

no worries

Ukraine is also reporting that reinforcements are arriving in the area too in refurbished Soviet era equiopment.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/500637203996110848

Just how much old armor do the Ukranians have sitting around? Seems like a bottomless pit at times.

 

[Nick underscore]

Ukraine is also reporting that reinforcements are arriving in the area too in refurbished Soviet era equiopment.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/status/500637203996110848

Just how much old armor do the Ukranians have sitting around? Seems like a bottomless pit at times.

The reinforcements from the west & south Ukraine raises a point. Feanor provided a Bgde-level breakdown a few weeks back;

A nice overview of the Ukrainian war effort. The basics of it are as follows: out of 4 Air Mobile, 2 Tank, 8 Mech, 3 Artillery, and 1 Rocket, Brigades, currently fighting in the east are: 1 Tank, 7 Mech, 4 Airmobile, 1 Rocket, and 1 Artillery.

СоÑтоÑние армии Украины - Ð*уÑÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¿Ð»Ð°Ð½ÐµÑ‚Ð°

This from IISS - http://www.iiss.org/-/media/Images/Events/Events%202014/March/Ukraine-Crimea-2014-Standard.jpg - illustrates where the brigades are based and would assume recruits within these oblasts. How reliable this source, I cannot confirm, but it is pre-Crimea annexation. I understand the Marine brigade (now reformed) is in the south-west of Ukraine (Transnestria border from last weeks reports)

What else can really be committed besides nationalist/ recruit battalions? There seems to be only 5/6 currently uncommitted. 17th Tank, 128th Mech/Mtn, 28th Mech, 92nd Mech (if this unit still exists), 169th Mech and the reformed Marine Bgde (is this still the 36th?). Would appear two thirds of the regulars are committed to this ongoing 'ATO'.

Your link from a few days back, very helpful on chronological summary and seems to tie across - Warfare Studies

EDIT; Not entirely sure, but the 28th Mech doesn't seem to have attachments, 92nd Mech only has an Engineer and Artillery Rgt attached and the 169th Mech is possibly a training Bgde

 

[Twain]

Uh... Is this real? It looks like a BTR-82A. As far as I know the Ukrainians aren't known to operate the type.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GffdgaWKZSk

You can clearly see its a BPPU turret at 0:18, and that you can see the barrel of the coax extending outwards out of it's case, which is not present in the 80A variant.

Another video shot from behind...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NydKpqZ1sIM

And here's another video of the same person... Notice the Ukrainian license plate at 0:34

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcg2cHv-_g8

If it isn't fake... Russia really has no hope at denying that they aren't arming the rebels..

Good catch, there are a number of people talking about this now
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/500685610940891136

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/500691130078728192

geo-located here

http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/2dq9gy/video_shows_rebels_in_possession_of_a_btr80a_a/

 

[Feanor]

This from IISS - http://www.iiss.org/-/media/Images/Events/Events%202014/March/Ukraine-Crimea-2014-Standard.jpg - illustrates where the brigades are based and would assume recruits within these oblasts. How reliable this source, I cannot confirm, but it is pre-Crimea annexation. I understand the Marine brigade (now reformed) is in the south-west of Ukraine (Transnestria border from last weeks reports)

It's not reformed. It's completely new. In Crimea there was a Coastal Defense Bde (which is a Mech Bde under Navy command) and two Independent Marine Btlns.

What else can really be committed besides nationalist/ recruit battalions? There seems to be only 5/6 currently uncommitted. 17th Tank, 128th Mech/Mtn, 28th Mech, 92nd Mech (if this unit still exists), 169th Mech and the reformed Marine Bgde (is this still the 36th?). Would appear two thirds of the regulars are committed to this ongoing 'ATO'.

Your link from a few days back, very helpful on chronological summary and seems to tie across - Warfare Studies

EDIT; Not entirely sure, but the 28th Mech doesn't seem to have attachments, 92nd Mech only has an Engineer and Artillery Rgt attached and the 169th Mech is possibly a training Bgde

They're building a National Guard formation from scratch. Something large. Something that is getting a ton of BTR-3s, BTR-4s, and T-64B1Ms. Maybe a brigade.

Good catch, there are a number of people talking about this now
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/500685610940891136

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/500691130078728192

geo-located here

Video shows rebels in possession of a BTR-80A. A modern IFV that is only produced in Russia, and has never been used by Ukraine. : UkrainianConflict

Could be a BTR-82A or a BTR-80A. It's hard to tell from so little footage. However, whichever one it is, there is little doubt where it came from. I have to wonder about the motivation. There are plenty of Russian Army units riding around in old BTR-80s. Why supply the rebels with easily identifiable BTR-80As when you could send the BTR-80As or 82As to a Russian military unit, and send the BTR-80s thus freed up to the rebels. Maybe they've decided that since it's obvious Russia is helping, there's no more reason to hide.

 

[Feanor]

Guys I might not have time to make update posts today or tomorrow, but I'll definitely write one up on Monday.

 

[Vegan-Zombie]

geo-located here

Video shows rebels in possession of a BTR-80A. A modern IFV that is only produced in Russia, and has never been used by Ukraine. : UkrainianConflict

Apparently it says there are rumors of Abkhazians fighting with Donbass... Anyone willing to bet Putin's going to pull out a "We have reports of numerous Ground Forces soldiers defecting to fight for the DPR, and taking some heavy equipment with them!" out of his ass?

Also, would this constitute as an act of war?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Ukraine crisis: Rebels getting tanks, Russian-trained fighters for offensive, separatist leader says - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

[Twain]

Apparently it says there are rumors of Abkhazians fighting with Donbass... Anyone willing to bet Putin's going to pull out a "We have reports of numerous Ground Forces soldiers defecting to fight for the DPR, and taking some heavy equipment with them!" out of his ass?

Also, would this constitute as an act of war?

I think Russia crossed that line long ago but a lot of people have interests in preserving the fiction that it isn't a war.

Ukraine: They call it an Anti-Terrorist Operation because if they call it a war they lose any further access to IMF loans. The IMF does not loan money to countries that are actively at war.

Russia: well they still deny doing anything to cause violence in Ukraine let alone acts of war.

EU, see statement about IMF loans and if they admit it is a war they might actually have to do something besides sanctions

US: Among other things, It appears Obama is determined to avoid getting the US involved in another war.

So until things esalate again, everyone observes the fiction that it is either terrorists or an internal revolt while still imposing sanctions. SMH

 

[KiwiRob]

Ukraine crisis: Rebels getting tanks, Russian-trained fighters for offensive, separatist leader says - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

In this article it again mentions the Russian column destroyed in Ukraine, where are the photos, since there are not photos how can we believe this ever happened?

 

[gf0012-aust]

In this article it again mentions the Russian column destroyed in Ukraine, where are the photos, since there are not photos how can we believe this ever happened?

on that basis we would also say that russians haven't been operating or supplying proxies in ukraine .......

it would be much easier however if western forensics were in place.

i'm more interested in the fact that the russians still appear to be running logistics support for those proxies

if they weren't then those rebels would die on the vine within months if not weeks