Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Just a guess, but I'd expect a huge push by europe to get Ukraine integrated into EU policies, procedures and standards asap. I always thought it was a very long term proposal to get Ukraine into the EU and NATO but this whole mess may have sped that up dramatically, instead of decades we could be talking about just years if the reforms are successful.

I'd be quite surprised if things took that route. I suppose time will tell, but the current national politics in Ukraine are such that EU membership seems less likely not more. They've turned their media into a completely insane propaganda machine, they're talking about banning political parties, they're allowing questionable paramilitaries, and essentially private armies, under the flag of fighting the rebels... Meanwhile their economy is shrinking, the population is leaving, and a bloody internal conflict is continuing. Not to mention there's a primary financial question. Who will fund the government of Ukraine for the rest of this year, and next year? Will the EU cough up tens of billions for Ukraine? Will the IMF do it? Before this airliner shoot down the EU was sending signals that they want Russia to participate financially in helping Ukraine but the Russian response was essentially an elaborate "no way".

 

[overlander]

By now 4 russian journalits have killed in Ukraine by Kiev junta, a lot of russian jounalust have been captured and detained, the last of them the british Graham Phillips who works for Russia today, he has been deported to Russia yesterday, "western" mass media say practically nothing about, why?

Western mass media mostly have been used as an instrument of anti russian propaganda, very sad.

According to people in this and other forums Russia has to tolerate NATO bases in Ukraine and that his slavic brother now is being converted in an enemy by western anti russian policy.

What would happen if in Mexico from day to night Russia instruments a coup to put in power an anti russian government with between other intentions to establish russian military bases in the border of USA and hundred of ethnic americans were being killed just a few km from America.

What would make USA ?

Russia has to tolerate everything because they are considered by the west as a second class people, isn,t it?

Russian territory is being bombed from ukrainian territory at lests 12 times with the result of 1 person died and some injured, Russia only send a protest , nothing more.

The western sponsored ukrainian government could have save thecwar simply negotiating a federation in Ukraine in wich Donbass has a autonomy but of course this not interesting for the west and Poroshenko was ordered by the western.partners to to war.

Of course Russia is always bad here.

This is because Russian tourists decided not to visit Europe, only this year is expected a 50% fall., next year even more, if they are not welcomed this is a logical question

 

[Todjaeger]

By now 4 russian journalits have killed in Ukraine by Kiev junta, a lot of russian jounalust have been captured and detained, the last of them the british Graham Phillips who works for Russia today, he has been deported to Russia yesterday, "western" mass media say practically nothing about, why?

Western mass media mostly have been used as an instrument of anti russian propaganda, very sad.

According to people in this and other forums Russia has to tolerate NATO bases in Ukraine and that his slavic brother now is being converted in an enemy by western anti russian policy.

What would happen if in Mexico from day to night Russia instruments a coup to put in power an anti russian government with between other intentions to establish russian military bases in the border of USA and hundred of ethnic americans were being killed just a few km from America.

What would make USA ?

Russia has to tolerate everything because they are considered by the west as a second class people, isn,t it?

Russian territory is being bombed from ukrainian territory at lests 12 times with the result of 1 person died and some injured, Russia only send a protest , nothing more.

The western sponsored ukrainian government could have save thecwar simply negotiating a federation in Ukraine in wich Donbass has a autonomy but of course this not interesting for the west and Poroshenko was ordered by the western.partners to to war.

Of course Russia is always bad here.

This is because Russian tourists decided not to visit Europe, only this year is expected a 50% fall., next year even more, if they are not welcomed this is a logical question

Okay... So, just want exactly is the point you are trying to make, and what is the relevance?

Some journalists got detained within the Ukraine? So what? That has occurred and been reported on a number of times, albeit not necessarily just which journalists or what media sources they worked for.

What "NATO" bases are you referring to within the Ukraine? I ask because as of right now, I am unaware of any such bases. There has been some movement of NATO assets to NATO member-states that border the region, in part because those members (former Soviet or Soviet-client states) are concerned about their security and territorial integrity, and potential Russian intentions towards them.

As for the arguments about Russian Federation obligations to "ethnic Russians" living within the borders of the Ukrain established by Soviet Union, such arguments could be used by Russia as an excuse to enter into any of the former Soviet states, by virtue of the population migrations which occurred during the decades of Communist rule. It has already been done with the extension of Russian citizenship to ethnic Ossetians living in Georgia prior to the conflict in 2008. Similar arguments were made in the 1930's about reuniting the German "Volk" which led annexations and then war.

If Russia had been so concerned about the welfare of "Russians" living in the Ukraine prior the conflict erupting, perhaps in addition to making the offer of citizenship (which was done) Russia should have also offered to help relocate such new citizens from the Ukraine into Russia proper.

As for the whole Ukraine/Russia-Mexico/US analogy, that was terrible. The issues the US has with Mexico and the stability of that nation have to do with people and narcotics being trafficked into the US from Mexico, and money and some weapons being trafficked into Mexico. The US wants a more unified and stable Mexico, so that Mexico can control and contain its problems within Mexican borders. That does not appear to be the case with Russian interests in the Ukraine.

 

[Goknub]

By now 4 russian journalits have killed in Ukraine by Kiev junta, a lot of russian jounalust have been captured and detained, the last of them the british Graham Phillips who works for Russia today, he has been deported to Russia yesterday, "western" mass media say practically nothing about, why?

Western mass media mostly have been used as an instrument of anti russian propaganda, very sad.

According to people in this and other forums Russia has to tolerate NATO bases in Ukraine and that his slavic brother now is being converted in an enemy by western anti russian policy...............................

The short response is: Who the hell are Russia to dictate that Ukraine must federalise?

There won't be any tears for the Russians now the West has realised Putin, along with the Russian media are prepared to straight out lie about almost everything since those "little green men" turned up in Crimea.

The current fighting was intended to force Ukraine to bend to Russia's will. Right now the West will back the Ukrainians just to spite Putin and hold him at bay.

Given that there's more truth coming out of North Korea's media than Russia's, I think the West has concluded it needs to be countered completely and relentlessly.

NATO wouldn't be expanding East if Russia stopped trying to win friends by punching them in the face.

 

[wild_Willie2]

News about the Dutch deployment of armed troops is currently mixed. After preparing for immediate action yesterday (they even recalled troops back from holiday), both airborne battalions have been stood down for now but according to a single newspaper, commando forces are apparently still going to be deployed to the crash site to protect the 40 unarmed and ununiformed military police being send there this weekend. Although the deployment of the commandos has not been made official yet, if I understand this right the MP’s primary use will be to interact with the separatists as being police officers while the commandos will be used as a (very lightly armed) backup and deterrent force if the excrement hits the fan.

 

[Bonza]

By now 4 russian journalits have killed in Ukraine by Kiev junta, a lot of russian jounalust have been captured and detained, the last of them the british Graham Phillips who works for Russia today, he has been deported to Russia yesterday, "western" mass media say practically nothing about, why?

Western mass media mostly have been used as an instrument of anti russian propaganda, very sad.

According to people in this and other forums Russia has to tolerate NATO bases in Ukraine and that his slavic brother now is being converted in an enemy by western anti russian policy.

What would happen if in Mexico from day to night Russia instruments a coup to put in power an anti russian government with between other intentions to establish russian military bases in the border of USA and hundred of ethnic americans were being killed just a few km from America.

What would make USA ?

Russia has to tolerate everything because they are considered by the west as a second class people, isn,t it?

Russian territory is being bombed from ukrainian territory at lests 12 times with the result of 1 person died and some injured, Russia only send a protest , nothing more.

The western sponsored ukrainian government could have save thecwar simply negotiating a federation in Ukraine in wich Donbass has a autonomy but of course this not interesting for the west and Poroshenko was ordered by the western.partners to to war.

Of course Russia is always bad here.

This is because Russian tourists decided not to visit Europe, only this year is expected a 50% fall., next year even more, if they are not welcomed this is a logical question

More and more of the same from you. Nothing about the current situation, you're only interested in mudslingng at the United States, Western media and anyone who disagrees with you. You need to shape up soon or you're going on holiday.

Of course Western media is biased, all media is, and it might surprise you to know that this is by no means a little-known fact and there are those of us who do not take god damn CNN as the voice of truth. But that would be inconvenient to the little binary narrative you've built up in your head, so I wouldn't worry about it if I were you - just keep complaining about the "bad guys" instead of debating the issues.

 

[Nick underscore]

By now 4 russian journalits have killed in Ukraine by Kiev junta, a lot of russian jounalust have been captured and detained, the last of them the british Graham Phillips who works for Russia today, he has been deported to Russia yesterday, "western" mass media say practically nothing about, why?

Western mass media mostly have been used as an instrument of anti russian propaganda, very sad.

According to people in this and other forums Russia has to tolerate NATO bases in Ukraine and that his slavic brother now is being converted in an enemy by western anti russian policy.

What would happen if in Mexico from day to night Russia instruments a coup to put in power an anti russian government with between other intentions to establish russian military bases in the border of USA and hundred of ethnic americans were being killed just a few km from America.

What would make USA ?

Russia has to tolerate everything because they are considered by the west as a second class people, isn,t it?

Russian territory is being bombed from ukrainian territory at lests 12 times with the result of 1 person died and some injured, Russia only send a protest , nothing more.

The western sponsored ukrainian government could have save thecwar simply negotiating a federation in Ukraine in wich Donbass has a autonomy but of course this not interesting for the west and Poroshenko was ordered by the western.partners to to war.

This is because Russian tourists decided not to visit Europe, only this year is expected a 50% fall., next year even more, if they are not welcomed this is a logical question

Honestly, such poor expression and continually repeated. Your Mexican analogy is ridiculous and reaffirms that you're to be not taken seriously.

And again.. more on the lack of Russian tourism and how everywhere will suffer - Britain and now Europe.. How will the world survive from this huge economic protest?

Surprise you actually use word 'logical' in your posts.. How apt

 

[Feanor]

By now 4 russian journalits have killed in Ukraine by Kiev junta, a lot of russian jounalust have been captured and detained, the last of them the british Graham Phillips who works for Russia today, he has been deported to Russia yesterday, "western" mass media say practically nothing about, why?

Western mass media mostly have been used as an instrument of anti russian propaganda, very sad.

According to people in this and other forums Russia has to tolerate NATO bases in Ukraine and that his slavic brother now is being converted in an enemy by western anti russian policy.

What would happen if in Mexico from day to night Russia instruments a coup to put in power an anti russian government with between other intentions to establish russian military bases in the border of USA and hundred of ethnic americans were being killed just a few km from America.

What would make USA ?

Russia has to tolerate everything because they are considered by the west as a second class people, isn,t it?

Russian territory is being bombed from ukrainian territory at lests 12 times with the result of 1 person died and some injured, Russia only send a protest , nothing more.

The western sponsored ukrainian government could have save thecwar simply negotiating a federation in Ukraine in wich Donbass has a autonomy but of course this not interesting for the west and Poroshenko was ordered by the western.partners to to war.

Of course Russia is always bad here.

This is because Russian tourists decided not to visit Europe, only this year is expected a 50% fall., next year even more, if they are not welcomed this is a logical question

You're trying, and failing, to make the same points over and over again. You need to familiarize yourself with basic facts. You need to provide evidence to back up your assertions, and you need to use logic to link your statements together. Otherwise you end up with the sort of unintelligible drivel that we have here.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Another interview with soldiers from the 72nd Mech Bde. They reveal a lack of desire to fight, constant and massive MLRS barrages, and poor leadership.

Back to the question of why Russia is stepping up military support for the rebels rather than directly intervening -- could one of the motives be to further demoralize the Ukrainian troops? The goal being to force Ukraine into some sort of a political settlement with the contested regions that would save face on both sides?

I tried to get a handle on the desertion rate with my google-fu and turned up another pro-Russian blog I haven't seen before that purports to show two "official" Ukrainian documents, "Report by Head of SBU, V.O. Nalyvaichenko, to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko" and "Official Ukrainian Military Report of Losses for July 9-15, 2014 (Arsen Avakov, Minister of Interior and V. Gritsak, Head of the ATO)."

Again, I can't post links as I'm new, but if you google "Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army – Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014" you can find them at slavyangrad(dot)wordpress(dot)com.

Propaganda abounds. I leave it up to you guys to determine how fake or real these "documents" are. If fake, the reasons for their creation and dissemination are self-evident. If real, that's some desertion rate!

 

[Twain]

Ukraine at war blog claims to have authenticated the smoke trail from the missile that shot down MH17. This picture has been floating around for a few days now. The blogger has some compelling evidence that the picture is in fact real. Not 100% but compelling nonetheless. Full details at the link.


Ukraine@war: EXIF data timestamp in MH17 missile launch photo is 16:25:48 17th July

 

[Twain]

I'd be quite surprised if things took that route. I suppose time will tell, but the current national politics in Ukraine are such that EU membership seems less likely not more. They've turned their media into a completely insane propaganda machine, they're talking about banning political parties, they're allowing questionable paramilitaries, and essentially private armies, under the flag of fighting the rebels... Meanwhile their economy is shrinking, the population is leaving, and a bloody internal conflict is continuing. Not to mention there's a primary financial question. Who will fund the government of Ukraine for the rest of this year, and next year? Will the EU cough up tens of billions for Ukraine? Will the IMF do it? Before this airliner shoot down the EU was sending signals that they want Russia to participate financially in helping Ukraine but the Russian response was essentially an elaborate "no way".

Yeah, I've seen the news about the communist party and their media is very bad. But reporters and politicians do stupid things all the time and war just makes it worse. I could make a huge list of the stupid things our politicians did during the Iraq war. While their actions aren't conducive to EU membership, the real test will be what they do in the coming years once tempers cool down. It's impossible to predict what will happen in the future in regards to EU membership, you can bet the EU and NATO will be putting a lot of pressure on them to reform, the question will be whether or not they listen to that advice.

As far as money goes, IIRC the IMF has already committed to something like 16 billion and I would suspect there will be at least some other direct aid. The key for Ukraine is going to be controlling the corruption. In economic terms corruption can be a deadweight loss when the money simply leaves the country to be put in overseas banks. This is huge drain on an economy as is corruption in general. If they can even get partial control on the amount of corruption in Ukraine, it wouldn't surprise me to see that alone add a point or two to their GDP growth. It's not going to be easy nor is it a sure thing but it can be done. Other countries have proven that point. All of this really depends on the political will inside Ukraine to force change and as I said, Russia just gave them some powerful motivation to change.

 

[harms]

Ukraine at war blog claims to have authenticated the smoke trail from the missile that shot down MH17. This picture has been floating around for a few days now. The blogger has some compelling evidence that the picture is in fact real. Not 100% but compelling nonetheless. Full details at the link.


Ukraine@war: EXIF data timestamp in MH17 missile launch photo is 16:25:48 17th July

Clear sky in this picture, but in the videos of the crash site you can see its cloudy. But I guess weather can change in a couple of hours.

 

[Feanor]

Yeah, I've seen the news about the communist party and their media is very bad. But reporters and politicians do stupid things all the time and war just makes it worse. I could make a huge list of the stupid things our politicians did during the Iraq war. While their actions aren't conducive to EU membership, the real test will be what they do in the coming years once tempers cool down. It's impossible to predict what will happen in the future in regards to EU membership, you can bet the EU and NATO will be putting a lot of pressure on them to reform, the question will be whether or not they listen to that advice.

I forgot where I read this, but it rings true. "I don't know how this crisis will end, but I do know that in a few years it will turn out that Poroshenko is a liar and a thief, and the political and economic reforms turn out to be completely ineffective. And of course it will all be Russia's fault."

As far as money goes, IIRC the IMF has already committed to something like 16 billion and I would suspect there will be at least some other direct aid. The key for Ukraine is going to be controlling the corruption. In economic terms corruption can be a deadweight loss when the money simply leaves the country to be put in overseas banks. This is huge drain on an economy as is corruption in general. If they can even get partial control on the amount of corruption in Ukraine, it wouldn't surprise me to see that alone add a point or two to their GDP growth. It's not going to be easy nor is it a sure thing but it can be done. Other countries have proven that point. All of this really depends on the political will inside Ukraine to force change and as I said, Russia just gave them some powerful motivation to change.

Maybe. But corruption is a long way from being the number one problem. The number one problem is a basic lack of funds. The Ukrainian government will be broke soon unless someone coughs up a ton of money. This doesn't even begin to address the economic crisis in Ukraine. Just to keep the government functioning (while the economy continues to shrink). And remember as of right now their GDP isn't growing. It's shrinking.

Back to the question of why Russia is stepping up military support for the rebels rather than directly intervening -- could one of the motives be to further demoralize the Ukrainian troops? The goal being to force Ukraine into some sort of a political settlement with the contested regions that would save face on both sides?

So far it seems that the rebels are also not interested in negotiating, and Ukraine is only interested in negotiating under the condition that border control is restored. Which would spell death for the rebels in the medium term.

I tried to get a handle on the desertion rate with my google-fu and turned up another pro-Russian blog I haven't seen before that purports to show two "official" Ukrainian documents, "Report by Head of SBU, V.O. Nalyvaichenko, to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko" and "Official Ukrainian Military Report of Losses for July 9-15, 2014 (Arsen Avakov, Minister of Interior and V. Gritsak, Head of the ATO)."

Again, I can't post links as I'm new, but if you google "Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army – Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014" you can find them at slavyangrad(dot)wordpress(dot)com.

Propaganda abounds. I leave it up to you guys to determine how fake or real these "documents" are. If fake, the reasons for their creation and dissemination are self-evident. If real, that's some desertion rate!

Here's the document in question. I have serious doubts about the accuracy of the figures, though I can't comment on authenticity.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/07/catastrophic-desertions-and-losses-in.html

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Government troops are on the outskirts of Gorlovka.

zloy_odessit -

Kiev troops are also storming Pervomaysk.

zloy_odessit -

Photos of Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk.

zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/631552.html

Ukrainian Msta-S arty firing, near Donetsk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Самоходки ÐœÑта-С ведут огонь по позициÑм ДÐР

New T-64B1M tanks for the National Guard. They were originally meant for export to the Congo.

Andrei-bt -
Andrei-bt -
bmpd.livejournal.com/932147.html

Streit armored cars assembled in Kremenchug, for the National Guard.

bmpd -

Yatsenyuk, Prime Minister of Ukraine, threatens to resign if the Rada doesn't sign the new budget, which includes increases in defense funding.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ßöåíþê çàÿâèë, ÷òî ïîäàë â îòñòàâêó, ïðîòåñòóÿ ïðîòèâ îòêàçà ïàðëàìåíòà ãîëîñîâàòü çà óâåëè÷åíèå ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ àðìèè

The mayor of Kremenchug, a town in Ukraine, was assassinated. Note this is not in the east.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìýð óêðàèíñêîãî Êðåìåí÷óãà Áàáàåâ çàñòðåëåí, çàÿâèë äåïóòàò Ðàäû

More Russian officials hit by sanctions, including head of the FSB, SVR, and Kadyrov.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â íîâîì ñàíêöèîííîì ñïèñêå ÅÑ - ãëàâû ÔÑÁ, ÑÂÐ, ñåêðåòàðü Ñîâáåçà ÐÔ è Êàäûðîâ

The number of Ukrainian refugees in temporary camps in Russia has risen to 31 thousand. Note that 15 500 refugees have already been relocated out of these camps into other housing in Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ×èñëî óêðàèíñêèõ áåæåíöåâ â ïóíêòàõ ðàçìåùåíèÿ â Ðîññèè ïðåâûñèëî 31 òûñÿ÷ó ÷åëîâåê

Russia has opened a humanitarian corridor to allow wounded Ukrainian soldiers to evacuate to Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ îòêðûëà ãóìàíèòàðíûé êîðèäîð äëÿ ïåðåïðàâêè ðàíåíûõ óêðàèíñêèõ âîåííîñëóæàùèõ

A Russian investigation team, looking at the area of impact where shells from Ukraine landed, was fired on from the territory of Ukraine. They describe it as a massive mortar barrage.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÊ âîçáóäèë äåëî ïî ôàêòó îáñòðåëà ñëåäñòâåííîé ãðóïïû ñ òåððèòîðèè Óêðàèíû

Ukraine digs another border moat, this one on the border with the breakaway republic of Transnestria.



The OSCE wants to use UAVs to control the border between Russia and Ukraine.

[url=http://newsru.com/world/26jul2014/bpla.html]Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÁÑÅ õî÷åò èñïîëüçîâàòü áåñïèëîòíèêè äëÿ êîíòðîëÿ çà ðîññèéñêî-óêðàèíñêîé ãðàíèöåé

An interesting info-graphic on Russia-EU trade relations. Don't know how accurate it is.

http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/6837/9814836.53/0_10e9fb_82033015_orig.jpg

 

[wsb05]

Update.

Government troops are on the outskirts of Gorlovka.

zloy_odessit -

Kiev troops are also storming Pervomaysk.

zloy_odessit -

Photos of Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk.

zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/631552.html

Ukrainian Msta-S arty firing, near Donetsk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Самоходки ÐœÑта-С ведут огонь по позициÑм ДÐÐ*

New T-64B1M tanks for the National Guard. They were originally meant for export to the Congo.

Andrei-bt -
Andrei-bt -
bmpd.livejournal.com/932147.html

Streit armored cars assembled in Kremenchug, for the National Guard.

bmpd -

Yatsenyuk, Prime Minister of Ukraine, threatens to resign if the Rada doesn't sign the new budget, which includes increases in defense funding.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ßöåíþê çàÿâèë, ÷òî ïîäàë â îòñòàâêó, ïðîòåñòóÿ ïðîòèâ îòêàçà ïàðëàìåíòà ãîëîñîâàòü çà óâåëè÷åíèå ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ àðìèè

The mayor of Kremenchug, a town in Ukraine, was assassinated. Note this is not in the east.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìýð óêðàèíñêîãî Êðåìåí÷óãà Áàáàåâ çàñòðåëåí, çàÿâèë äåïóòàò Ðàäû

More Russian officials hit by sanctions, including head of the FSB, SVR, and Kadyrov.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â íîâîì ñàíêöèîííîì ñïèñêå ÅÑ - ãëàâû ÔÑÁ, ÑÂÐ, ñåêðåòàðü Ñîâáåçà ÐÔ è Êàäûðîâ

The number of Ukrainian refugees in temporary camps in Russia has risen to 31 thousand. Note that 15 500 refugees have already been relocated out of these camps into other housing in Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ×èñëî óêðàèíñêèõ áåæåíöåâ â ïóíêòàõ ðàçìåùåíèÿ â Ðîññèè ïðåâûñèëî 31 òûñÿ÷ó ÷åëîâåê

Russia has opened a humanitarian corridor to allow wounded Ukrainian soldiers to evacuate to Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ îòêðûëà ãóìàíèòàðíûé êîðèäîð äëÿ ïåðåïðàâêè ðàíåíûõ óêðàèíñêèõ âîåííîñëóæàùèõ

A Russian investigation team, looking at the area of impact where shells from Ukraine landed, was fired on from the territory of Ukraine. They describe it as a massive mortar barrage.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÊ âîçáóäèë äåëî ïî ôàêòó îáñòðåëà ñëåäñòâåííîé ãðóïïû ñ òåððèòîðèè Óêðàèíû

Ukraine digs another border moat, this one on the border with the breakaway republic of Transnestria.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Украина вновь роет ров на границе. Тепер Ñ ÐŸÑ€Ð¸Ð´Ð½ÐµÑтровьем

The OSCE wants to use UAVs to control the border between Russia and Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÁÑÅ õî÷åò èñïîëüçîâàòü áåñïèëîòíèêè äëÿ êîíòðîëÿ çà ðîññèéñêî-óêðàèíñêîé ãðàíèöåé

An interesting info-graphic on Russia-EU trade relations. Don't know how accurate it is.

http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/6837/9814836.53/0_10e9fb_82033015_orig.jpg

What is your assessment Feanor? Government clearly seems to have the upper hand. Is there any reason for russian continual support of the rebels. Could the rebels ever make a comeback?

 

[gazzzwp]

What is your assessment Feanor? Government clearly seems to have the upper hand. Is there any reason for russian continual support of the rebels. Could the rebels ever make a comeback?

I don't personally see that the situation in the Ukraine will stabilise without a heavy Western military presence. It has the potential to turn into a long term government versus terrorist conflict along the lines of what we are currently seeing in Gaza. There will be periods of truce, and periods when the fighting flares again, the difference being that a large military power on the Ukrainian border can influence the action with impunity directly or indirectly.

The trouble is does the Ukranian government have the resources to conduct a long term campaign like that? Will the west be able to supply materiel to allow them to sustain the campaign? Is that ethical and does it just play into the hands of Russia?

What would happen if Western powers agreed with the Ukrainian government to station large numbers of troops in the east and assist with the clean up there? Would Russia beat them to the punch an encircle the east with their military? Would that result Western forces meeting face to face across one of the rivers say?

I feel so sorry for the Ukranians both in the West and the East. That nation as I see it is never going to develop and enjoy anything like a wealthy future with Russian interference as it is. Their only hope is with western military assistance but I can't see Russia sitting by and letting that happen.

 

[wsb05]

I don't personally see that the situation in the Ukraine will stabilise without a heavy Western military presence. It has the potential to turn into a long term government versus terrorist conflict along the lines of what we are currently seeing in Gaza. There will be periods of truce, and periods when the fighting flares again, the difference being that a large military power on the Ukrainian border can influence the action with impunity directly or indirectly.

The trouble is does the Ukranian government have the resources to conduct a long term campaign like that? Will the west be able to supply materiel to allow them to sustain the campaign? Is that ethical and does it just play into the hands of Russia?

What would happen if Western powers agreed with the Ukrainian government to station large numbers of troops in the east and assist with the clean up there? Would Russia beat them to the punch an encircle the east with their military? Would that result Western forces meeting face to face across one of the rivers say?

I feel so sorry for the Ukranians both in the West and the East. That nation as I see it is never going to develop and enjoy anything like a wealthy future with Russian interference as it is. Their only hope is with western military assistance but I can't see Russia sitting by and letting that happen.

Ukraine is not to be compared to Gaza. Maybe to Lebanon civil war but not Gaza.
Ukrainian government however has been steadily gaining ground unlike the situation in the Lebanese civil war. This is not yet a civil war! It wouldn't gain so much ground with so few casualties if it were entering a completely hostile area.

 

[swerve]

Indeed.

We can't say what the exact proportions supporting one side or the other, or sitting on the sidelines & trying to keep their heads down, are, but it's undoubtedly true that only a very small proportion of the population in the areas fought over has shown itself willing to fight for the rebels.

There have been reports of torture & murder of those openly opposing the rebellion, which makes it hard to judge whether the lack of protests against the rebels reflects a lack of opposition to them, or fear.

I suspect a very large number, whatever their views on the legitimacy of the overthrow of Yanukovich or the government in Kiev, just want the fighting to stop.

 

[wsb05]

Indeed.

We can't say what the exact proportions supporting one side or the other, or sitting on the sidelines & trying to keep their heads down, are, but it's undoubtedly true that only a very small proportion of the population in the areas fought over has shown itself willing to fight for the rebels.

There have been reports of torture & murder of those openly opposing the rebellion, which makes it hard to judge whether the lack of protests against the rebels reflects a lack of opposition to them, or fear.

I suspect a very large number, whatever their views on the legitimacy of the overthrow of Yanukovich or the government in Kiev, just want the fighting to stop.

And equally as maby would like their rights given to them. Russian language status and a larger say in their areas.
Why novorussia is part of ukrainia in the first place remains a valid question. If we want to be historically just, tatars should get abig chunk of it. Russia would be second to lay claim. It can also be independent since many of the settelments in history became so.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Australia is supposedly also sending 100 policemen to the area, although some of them will be armed.

AFP will be unarmed