Ukranian Crisis

[Relboon]

I hope that there wont be any kind of provocation involving those MPs, but I believe the ukrainians to be fully capable of sending couple of arty shells in the direction of those MPs and blaming the rebels 5 minutes later.
Just a question for people on this forum, imagine 5 days later you hear that several arty shells was dropped at the crash site, the ukrainians immediately say that it was rebels who did it, after a day or two they provide "evidence" in the form of some blury pictures that does not show any thing useful (like the alleged BUK transferring back to Russia, people on this forum bought that BS very well) and get the top story in all news media in EU and UA. What will the answer from EU be ? And who will benefit from it ? Will EU question anything ?

 

[Toptob]

Ahh that's more like it... Its not really fair to expect such bold moves from our govt. I heard this analysis on nieuwsuur about how first the marrechaussee would go unarmed and maybe later they would get to carry weapons... In Dutch we would call that 'een omgekeerde wereld' or the world upside down. First people (whomever) get to mess with the wreckage steal personal belongings and cover up whatever there is to find out. And later when it's no longer neccesary they will get to actually guard something.

OH and those police are NOT investigators! So what are they going to do there?

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Obviously. His point, the same as mine is, since Russia is committed to this intervention they should do it directly, instead of doing it by proxy. The clamor for direct intervention in Russia, especially in the press, is quite significant. So I don't think there's a domestic problem with support for an intervention. Internationally I don't think Russia is fooling anyone, and the diplomatic signals being sent right now look like Europe will not let this go, or let this slide. So then, why doesn't Russia go in, quickly, decisively, and present Europe with a fait accompli. European sanctions make a lot of sense as a way of deterring Russia, and directing the course of action, but make a lot less sense after the fact. And of course the numbers of civilian dead, and damage dealt to civilian infrastructure would be much lower. Not to mention that a direct intervention would mean a much more hands on approach to rebuilding the place after.

This would make a lot of sense *if* Putin wants to pocket eastern Ukraine, but it seems to me he doesn't. My reasoning is: (1) Unlike Crimea, the great majority does not want to join up with Russia, so there's one headache for him. (2) What does eastern Ukraine have that would benefit the Russian economy? The cost to benefit ratio is not attractive at all. (3) It does not solve his most pressing concern: NATO on his doorstep in the future. It just moves the border over a bit and makes it more likely NATO will one day occupy the other side of that line. It looks to me like he wants Ukraine to remain whole and preferably within the Russian sphere, but would tolerate a nonaligned Ukraine so long as Russia has influence in issues important to her. Or perhaps I'm off base and missing something here?

There is one other thing. As this fighting continues, the rest of Ukraine suffers more casualties, and Ukraine's scarce finances (already borrowed from the west) are being eaten up. Worsening relations with Russia, damage to infrastructure, increasing gas debts, deterioration of industry and manufacturing, all go further and further the longer this goes on. This may be an aspect of Russia's actions. The intent may be to put the Kiev government in a situation where win or lose, they're screwed in the medium term.

This makes more sense to my mind. Let Ukraine fall deeper into the hole as you describe, wait for the IMF medicine to take effect -- and winter will come, as it always does.

 

[Twain]

You seem to be missing the point that without Russian support to date, there likely wouldn't be an ongoing rebellion. Munitions and fighters (volunteers), flowing through the boarder is assistance.

That's been obvious for a long time, Strelkov has complained repeatedly about the lack of support among the residents of eastern Ukraine. Now this:

In Strelkov’s recent video posted online, he said he “could never have imagined” that of the more than 4.6 million people living in the Donetsk region, only about 1,000 volunteers were willing to join his rebel army to defend Novorossiya: “We can see anything but crowds of volunteers outside our gate,” admitted Strelkov, whose nom de guerre means “gunman” and whose real surname is Girkin.

Putin

This was never an internally driven rebellion. Polls done in Ukraine before and dunring the unrest never showed anything close to the level of support to cause a revolt. An incompetent police force allowed a small number of hotheads to establish a"bridegehead" for putin to move thousands of russian nationals into Ukraine. The only reason it went as far as it did was russian support via weapons and mercenaries. This is the reason most of the rebels that get captured turn out to be russian citizens.

 

[wittmanace]

That's been obvious for a long time, Strelkov has complained repeatedly about the lack of support among the residents of eastern Ukraine. Now this:

In Strelkov’s recent video posted online, he said he “could never have imagined” that of the more than 4.6 million people living in the Donetsk region, only about 1,000 volunteers were willing to join his rebel army to defend Novorossiya: “We can see anything but crowds of volunteers outside our gate,” admitted Strelkov, whose nom de guerre means “gunman” and whose real surname is Girkin.

Putin

This was never an internally driven rebellion. Polls done in Ukraine before and dunring the unrest never showed anything close to the level of support to cause a revolt. An incompetent police force allowed a small number of hotheads to establish a"bridegehead" for putin to move thousands of russian nationals into Ukraine. The only reason it went as far as it did was russian support via weapons and mercenaries. This is the reason most of the rebels that get captured turn out to be russian citizens.

Regarding nationalities, there is an issue there. I dont really understand nationality proclamations of nationality of captured, killed etc by the various sides.

If they want to be a part of russia, and are of russian descent, it makes sense that they would be russian nationals or have the passports, whether they were ukraine born etc or not. For this reason I see the nationalities and what it means, to be issues that I will only ever know after the fact, if ever.

The other point is what criteria makes them russian or ukrainian etc? is it id cards, place of birth etc. As someone not from the region, i find several aspects of this to be very loose and hard to pin down.

The third point is that russia seems to make it very easy for people in the region to get russian nationality and papers. Is being russian and being something else (ukrainian for example) mutually exclusive?

None of these are political points, but are rather an illustration of aspects hard to understand from the outside. It is also why statements of nationality arent all that interesting to me, as I rather understand affiliations ( russian army, ukrainian army, kiev volunteer, moscow volunteer, etc etc).

 

[Feanor]

Regarding nationalities, there is an issue there. I dont really understand nationality proclamations of nationality of captured, killed etc by the various sides.

If they want to be a part of russia, and are of russian descent, it makes sense that they would be russian nationals or have the passports, whether they were ukraine born etc or not. For this reason I see the nationalities and what it means, to be issues that I will only ever know after the fact, if ever.

The other point is what criteria makes them russian or ukrainian etc? is it id cards, place of birth etc. As someone not from the region, i find several aspects of this to be very loose and hard to pin down.

The third point is that russia seems to make it very easy for people in the region to get russian nationality and papers. Is being russian and being something else (ukrainian for example) mutually exclusive?

None of these are political points, but are rather an illustration of aspects hard to understand from the outside. It is also why statements of nationality arent all that interesting to me, as I rather understand affiliations ( russian army, ukrainian army, kiev volunteer, moscow volunteer, etc etc).

Ukraine, in theory, doesn't allow dual citizenship of any kind. However practically it occurs all the time.

Anyways, the real point is that without counting heads we can be confident that there is a huge percentage of volunteers from other countries who have only come to Ukraine because of this conflict.

This would make a lot of sense *if* Putin wants to pocket eastern Ukraine, but it seems to me he doesn't. My reasoning is: (1) Unlike Crimea, the great majority does not want to join up with Russia, so there's one headache for him. (2) What does eastern Ukraine have that would benefit the Russian economy? The cost to benefit ratio is not attractive at all. (3) It does not solve his most pressing concern: NATO on his doorstep in the future. It just moves the border over a bit and makes it more likely NATO will one day occupy the other side of that line. It looks to me like he wants Ukraine to remain whole and preferably within the Russian sphere, but would tolerate a nonaligned Ukraine so long as Russia has influence in issues important to her. Or perhaps I'm off base and missing something here?

Well that's why I think Russia should have cut the rebels loose, once it became obvious that the Ukrainians managed to put together a workable military, while the locals aren't willing to fight.

This makes more sense to my mind. Let Ukraine fall deeper into the hole as you describe, wait for the IMF medicine to take effect -- and winter will come, as it always does.

It's costing Russia, a lot, internationally. There are simpler and easier ways for Russia to bankrupt Ukraine and ferment internal discontent against a government that ultimately has no solution to the crisis. If you look at the effect of the currrent war on Ukrainian society, you see that it's driving Russia and Ukraine apart, and giving the Kiev government a good way to distract people from the horrible situation in the country.

 

[Nick underscore]

Ukraine, in theory, doesn't allow dual citizenship of any kind. However practically it occurs all the time.

Anyways, the real point is that without counting heads we can be confident that there is a huge percentage of volunteers from other countries who have only come to Ukraine because of this conflict.

Well that's why I think Russia should have cut the rebels loose, once it became obvious that the Ukrainians managed to put together a workable military, while the locals aren't willing to fight.

It's costing Russia, a lot, internationally. There are simpler and easier ways for Russia to bankrupt Ukraine and ferment internal discontent against a government that ultimately has no solution to the crisis. If you look at the effect of the currrent war on Ukrainian society, you see that it's driving Russia and Ukraine apart, and giving the Kiev government a good way to distract people from the horrible situation in the country.

Agreed.

Although, there was a draft bill in parliament in early 2013 to allow dual citizenship. I'm sure it's not the most important issue to sort currently, but I think it's just a matter of time for this to change. 5-10% are believed to hold dual citizenship (I'm sure it's higher), as approx 5 million citizens live abroad.

I'm a little surprised by the low number of local recruits within the Donetsk area, as mentioned by strelkov.. What are the approximate numbers of pro-russian seperatists in the Donetsk region? Seems like less sustainable position as each day passes.

 

[Twain]

Agreed.

Although, there was a draft bill in parliament in early 2013 to allow dual citizenship. I'm sure it's not the most important issue to sort currently, but I think it's just a matter of time for this to change. 5-10% are believed to hold dual citizenship (I'm sure it's higher), as approx 5 million citizens live abroad.

I'm a little surprised by the low number of local recruits within the Donetsk area, as mentioned by strelkov.. What are the approximate numbers of pro-russian seperatists in the Donetsk region? Seems like less sustainable position as each day passes.

I've only seen one estimate of the number of mercenaries from the city of Luhansk, The "rebels" are claiming 4000 are defending luhansk. Feanor may have more numbers. If this is accurate, just a guess, but I would expect similar numbers in the city of donetsk.I don't even have a guess at how many are in other areas.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

More destruction in the 72nd Mech Bde, surrounded by the rebels. Interview with the soldiers reveals that they have little interest in the war, and reportedly many are thinking about surrendering because the rebels said they'd let them go home.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Еще немного информации от окруженцев

Another interview with soldiers from the 72nd Mech Bde. They reveal a lack of desire to fight, constant and massive MLRS barrages, and poor leadership.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Выжившие под Зеленопольем: "Погибать за что? За тех, кто не поддерживает? За Ñту землю донецкую?.."

Soldiers of the 79th Airmobile Bde, the ones that broke out of the encirclement. They confirm that they abandoned their positions without orders.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Солдаты 79-й оаÑмбр о выходе из окружениÑ

Kiev SBU Alpha SpN unit has attacked the Kiev volunteer btln Aydar because the Aydar btln has some high profile rebel prisoners and refused to hand them over.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Бей Ñвоих, чтоб чужие боÑлиÑÑŒ

Photos and video out of the conflict zone.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Юго-ВоÑток Украины: война без конца...

Photos of rebels and government troops, including a rare photo of a column of upgraded T-64BM Bulat tanks.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - СтотыÑÑчный Северодонецк вÑтречает Ñвоих оÑвободителей, котÑ-ÑепаратиÑÑ‚,..

Refueling a hungry beast. Rebel armor.

bmpd -

Russian MoD declares that Ukraine has been using phosphorus munitions.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãåíøòàá ÂÑ ÐÔ âñëåä çà ÑÊ ÐÔ çàÿâèë î ïðèìåíåíèè óêðàèíñêèìè ñèëîâèêàìè ôîñôîðíûõ áîìá

More Ukrainian arty shells landed in Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÔÑÁ ñîîáùèëà î ïîâðåæäåííûõ óêðàèíñêèìè ìèíàìè äîìàõ â Ðîñòîâñêîé îáëàñòè

A Russian media source (Kommersant) reports that Ukraine was holding air defense exercises when the Boeing was shot down. This is consistent with Russian info that lots of Ukrainian air defense radar activity was noticed prior to the shoot down. They speculate that an accident during this exercise may be responsible for the shoot down.

bmpd -

Production of Dozor-B armored cars in L'vov has begun, for the Ukrainian military.

Во Львове начали Ñборку бронеавтомобилей Дозор-Б Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ð¸ и на ÑкÑпорт

The Russian government wants to know how much money the Red Cross haspending on Ukrainian refugees, and implies they haven't been spending enough.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îáùåñòâåííàÿ ïàëàòà ÐÔ çàèíòåðåñîâàëàñü ðàñõîäàìè "Êðàñíîãî êðåñòà" íà óêðàèíñêèõ áåæåíöåâ

Production of An-140s in Russia is continuing, despite uncertainties about the future. Pre-payment has stopped because of risk of non-delivery on components. The MoD has suggested that the contract be cancelled entirely.

ПроизводÑтво Ñамолетов Ðн-140 находитÑÑ Ð½Ð° грани Ñрыва из-за Ñитуации на Украине

The SBU claims that Ukraine is about to receive special status as an ally of the US.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû â áëèæàéøåå âðåìÿ ìîãóò ñäåëàòü Óêðàèíó ñîþçíèêîì ÍÀÒÎ

 

[Twain]

It's costing Russia, a lot, internationally. There are simpler and easier ways for Russia to bankrupt Ukraine and ferment internal discontent against a government that ultimately has no solution to the crisis. If you look at the effect of the currrent war on Ukrainian society, you see that it's driving Russia and Ukraine apart, and giving the Kiev government a good way to distract people from the horrible situation in the country.

The problem now is that Ukraine, both as a government and as a people are now not only overtly hostile but they also have a vested interest in reform to clean up their mess of a government. There are already EU advisers in Kiev to help reform their government agencies and police forces. The US is sending military advisers to do the same with their military forces. I'd expect a purge of pro russia military officers very soon. (assuming it hasn't already started) Just a guess, but I'd expect a huge push by europe to get Ukraine integrated into EU policies, procedures and standards asap. I always thought it was a very long term proposal to get Ukraine into the EU and NATO but this whole mess may have sped that up dramatically, instead of decades we could be talking about just years if the reforms are successful.

We'll see what will happen over time and whether or not they are successful but there is no doubt that putin has given them a great deal of motivation to change.

Russia's options are limited at this time, barring massive russian intervention, the mercenaries and rebels look very likely to lose the war in the coming weeks. If russia invades, it will be disastrous politically and economically. You will see russia regarded as little more than a modern Soviet Union, only this time with fewer allies. I'm not sure Putin's pride will allow him to back down, but his best bet is to cut his losses and get out, he's already got a giant money pit called crimea to deal with.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Well that's why I think Russia should have cut the rebels loose, once it became obvious that the Ukrainians managed to put together a workable military, while the locals aren't willing to fight.

I thought he should have too, and I think he may have wanted to. It looked like he expected Poroshenko to extend some conciliatory gesture toward the east in exchange for Putin recognizing the legitimacy of the election (carrot) and the Russian hand on the gas spigot (stick). Putin would have saved face at home and this nasty little war would be over.

When that did not happen, Putin found himself a victim of his own propaganda, and dropping rebel support became politically untenable at home. Since then, he seems to have tried to have it both ways -- a low level of support for the rebels to keep the folks at home happy, while hoping to drag it out until the current ruling coalition in Kiev either crumbles or backs down (the latter being highly unlikely, the former quite likely).

It's costing Russia, a lot, internationally. There are simpler and easier ways for Russia to bankrupt Ukraine and ferment internal discontent against a government that ultimately has no solution to the crisis. If you look at the effect of the currrent war on Ukrainian society, you see that it's driving Russia and Ukraine apart, and giving the Kiev government a good way to distract people from the horrible situation in the country.

Well put, and I completely agree. In trying to puzzle this out, all I can come up with is that Putin's continuing and increasing support for the rebels is for domestic consumption -- and, perhaps as a distraction from Crimea. Apparently, he doesn't want to appear weak or be seen as "abandoning" the people in the east to the "Nazi death squads". I think he knows he's got himself into a bit of a sticky wicket. What his plan is for getting out of it, I can hardly guess.

 

[Relboon]

Why is it so hard to imagine that people really just go there as volentiers ? Just imagine that the country you live in is sudenly divided into lots of pieces, and later after 24 years you hear that in one of those pieces grave crimes are made against your brothers, and all of that is supported by the goverment. Those who are very brave just stoped their current life and where there to fight and protect. A lot of rebels said that the final decision was made after the crimes in Odessa on may 2nd, when Kiev said that it was an accident. Btw I didnt see any outrage in europe about that, in fact I didnt see a lot of reaction at all, were those people lesser beings than the ones on the plane ?

 

[wittmanace]

Why is it so hard to imagine that people really just go there as volentiers ? Just imagine that the country you live in is sudenly divided into lots of pieces, and later after 24 years you hear that in one of those pieces grave crimes are made against your brothers, and all of that is supported by the goverment. Those who are very brave just stoped their current life and where there to fight and protect. A lot of rebels said that the final decision was made after the crimes in Odessa on may 2nd, when Kiev said that it was an accident. Btw I didnt see any outrage in europe about that, in fact I didnt see a lot of reaction at all, were those people lesser beings than the ones on the plane ?

No-one here is saying that, that I am aware.

 

[Twain]

Why is it so hard to imagine that people really just go there as volentiers ? Just imagine that the country you live in is sudenly divided into lots of pieces, and later after 24 years you hear that in one of those pieces grave crimes are made against your brothers, and all of that is supported by the goverment. Those who are very brave just stoped their current life and where there to fight and protect. A lot of rebels said that the final decision was made after the crimes in Odessa on may 2nd, when Kiev said that it was an accident.

The point we are making is that without russian money, weapons and manpower, there wouldn't be a rebellion. There would just be the police making some arrests.

Btw I didnt see any outrage in europe about that, in fact I didnt see a lot of reaction at all, were those people lesser beings than the ones on the plane ?

This argument is used frequently, "if you are so upset about situation A, why aren't you upset about situation B?

One of the primary functions, if not the primary function, of a government is to ensure the safety and security of it's people. A government usually only gets involved in situations like this when they involve their national security (the safety and security of it's people). The situation in Odessa by itself did not significantly threaten the national security interests of really any country outside of Ukraine. When you end up shooting down a passenger jet you have just intruded on the national security interests of a number of countries. Not only have you quite likley killed citizens of a number of countries, you have introduced an economic threat to their security. This is when governments act in order to protect their national security interests.

That's just one example, there is a much broader discussion to be had concerning various national security interests that involve Ukraine as a whole but suffice it to say that expecting a country to act outside of what it perceives to be in it's interests is expecting too much. I understand this is a very realpolitik way of looking at things, but this is the reality.

There is an argument to be made on whether or not this is right or wrong, but this probably isn't the place for it, that's much more of a foreign policy discussion.

 

[Nick underscore]

Why is it so hard to imagine that people really just go there as volentiers ? Just imagine that the country you live in is sudenly divided into lots of pieces, and later after 24 years you hear that in one of those pieces grave crimes are made against your brothers, and all of that is supported by the goverment. Those who are very brave just stoped their current life and where there to fight and protect. A lot of rebels said that the final decision was made after the crimes in Odessa on may 2nd, when Kiev said that it was an accident.Btw I didnt see any outrage in europe about that, in fact I didnt see a lot of reaction at all, were those people lesser beings than the ones on the plane ?

I think you're missing the point.. It was the quoted low level of local volunteers recruited amongst the rebel cause since crisis began. i.e those who actually live in this area of Eastern Ukraine.

Wouldn't you find it a bit odd, that if true, a large majority of rebels are purely foreign relative to Urkainian pro russian rebels numbers. After all, this is about identity isn't it?

No one is a lesser human being. coverage was shown around the world of that incident, but as it was a horrific incident, it didn't directly involve the loss of citizens from 8-9 other countries.

Let me ask you, let's assume that MH17 wasn't shot down (I'm sure we can agree that happened?).. Do you think there would be as much active 'western' involvement officially and otherwise, now?

 

[wittmanace]

After all, this is about identity isn't it?

Maybe I am the one misreading this, but I figured it was not about identity. Rather, I thought, it was about ideological spheres, with russian and fascists etc being monikers or euphemisms (or even shorthand denotations) for the available/existing spheres.

Obviously, I assumed there were many reasons for all this, the above being just one, but a major one. Call me cynical, but where politics is involved, i assume there is also a fair bit of power and influence protection, with various domestic alignments.

I also assumed, given the economic situation and how long it has been the case, and corruption being rampant from what I gather, that there are also elements of protecting economic fiefdoms, for lack of a better word.

Identity is bounded about a lot, and maybe it is a major issue or even the primary, but I had assumed there were many, and that identities like russianness were euphemistic or rallying points rather than pragmatic driving forces or motivations.

 

[Nick underscore]

Maybe I am the one misreading this, but I figured it was not about identity. Rather, I thought, it was about ideological spheres, with russian and fascists etc being monikers or euphemisms (or even shorthand denotations) for the available/existing spheres.

Obviously, I assumed there were many reasons for all this, the above being just one, but a major one. Call me cynical, but where politics is involved, i assume there is also a fair bit of power and influence protection, with various domestic alignments.

I also assumed, given the economic situation and how long it has been the case, and corruption being rampant from what I gather, that there are also elements of protecting economic fiefdoms, for lack of a better word.

Identity is bounded about a lot, and maybe it is a major issue or even the primary, but I had assumed there were many, and that identities like russianness were euphemistic or rallying points rather than pragmatic driving forces or motivations.

Agree on some of your points regarding ideological sphere, but why the declaration of independence to Novorossiya and then the identities of LNR and DNR within this? Alignment yes, but then why wasn't the offer of incorporation into federal Russia (such as the situation with the Crimea), previously taken up?

If we were to look as this as just a Ukrainian domestic issue without any foreign interference, then wasn't this an issue of west Ukraine vs East Ukraine and fears over where the country would look in the long term? A corrupt and poorly managed economy, culminating in further angst and concern amongst both?

I am probably incorrect and more than likely simplifying the deeper concerns. If I was Eastern Ukrainian, I would be concerned that major parts of my heritage will be changed.. I know there was mention early in the crisis that another cause for concern was the Kiev govt removing Russian as a language to be taught in school. I'm sure this was clarified to primary language, but again could be wrong.

 

[wittmanace]

Agree on some of your points regarding ideological sphere, but why the declaration of independence to Novorossiya and then the identities of LNR and DNR within this? Alignment yes, but then why wasn't the offer of incorporation into federal Russia (such as the situation with the Crimea), previously taken up?

If we were to look as this as just a Ukrainian domestic issue without any foreign interference, then wasn't this an issue of west Ukraine vs East Ukraine and fears over where the country would look in the long term? A corrupt and poorly managed economy, culminating in further angst and concern amongst both?

I am probably incorrect and more than likely simplifying the deeper concerns. If I was Eastern Ukrainian, I would be concerned that major parts of my heritage will be changed.. I know there was mention early in the crisis that another cause for concern was the Kiev govt removing Russian as a language to be taught in school. I'm sure this was clarified to primary language, but again could be wrong.

I think we agree on alot. Another key issue for me is that so far we are hearing what this is about from the ones that are armed and the ones wielding influence (and the ones who have amassed wealth). It is very hard to be sure what the cassus belli or real motivation is under such circumstances, being outside looking in. As we dont know how many are ukrainian, or even eastern/western ukrainian, it is hard to say what what eastern ukrainians feel about it. Either armed rebels around, or government armed forces..two sides in armed conflict. I think there has been alot of muddying of the waters, by both sides.

Regarding incorporation, it might be that Russia perceived the cost or price to be too high (sanctions, chinese private views, financial cost, etc). I frankly dont know the answwer.

 

[Nick underscore]

I think we agree on alot. Another key issue for me is that so far we are hearing what this is about from the ones that are armed and the ones wielding influence (and the ones who have amassed wealth). It is very hard to be sure what the cassus belli or real motivation is under such circumstances, being outside looking in. As we dont know how many are ukrainian, or even eastern/western ukrainian, it is hard to say what what eastern ukrainians feel about it. Either armed rebels around, or government armed forces..two sides in armed conflict. I think there has been alot of muddying of the waters, by both sides.

Regarding incorporation, it might be that Russia perceived the cost or price to be too high (sanctions, chinese private views, financial cost, etc). I frankly dont know the answwer.

Agreed.

IMV, Russia knew the perceived costs and in honesty, the opposition from many in the East of Ukraine. I can't remember how much the Crimea is currently equating in terms of short term drag on GDP (it wasn't significant, but illustrates the point of further incorporation). To incorporate such a size and geography (Eastern half of a Ukraine) and then the population (assuming this is what they want) would prove rather burdensome on the broad Russian economy.

Sanctions having the two way effect these ones seems to be having, I'm not so sure Putin/ Russian Govt mind at the moment, as Twain mentioned, there may be having a galvanising effect upon the current Ukrainian govt and organisation of the UA, but equally the popularity of Putin stands at 81%+*. Depending when/ if phases III get introduced by EU and whatever the US may conjure up - this may change some political stances. But again both sides lose from sanctions, just some will lose from more from this (Economically and politically).

* I truly believe many support his strong beliefs/ stances/ perceptions regardless of what some may say about those popularity numbers. I know of a few speeches he has made directly to the Duma, I identified with..

 

[SolarWind]

The problem now is that Ukraine, both as a government and as a people are now not only overtly hostile but they also have a vested interest in reform to clean up their mess of a government. There are already EU advisers in Kiev to help reform their government agencies and police forces. The US is sending military advisers to do the same with their military forces. I'd expect a purge of pro russia military officers very soon. (assuming it hasn't already started) Just a guess, but I'd expect a huge push by europe to get Ukraine integrated into EU policies, procedures and standards asap. I always thought it was a very long term proposal to get Ukraine into the EU and NATO but this whole mess may have sped that up dramatically, instead of decades we could be talking about just years if the reforms are successful.

We'll see what will happen over time and whether or not they are successful but there is no doubt that putin has given them a great deal of motivation to change.

Russia's options are limited at this time, barring massive russian intervention, the mercenaries and rebels look very likely to lose the war in the coming weeks. If russia invades, it will be disastrous politically and economically. You will see russia regarded as little more than a modern Soviet Union, only this time with fewer allies. I'm not sure Putin's pride will allow him to back down, but his best bet is to cut his losses and get out, he's already got a giant money pit called crimea to deal with.

I would very much like to see Ukrainian government structures, police and the military reformed and up to western standards. Assuming that this is even possible, it would be a good test of whether and how fast such a thing could theoretically be done for Russia.

As far as Russian next steps, I think a massive military intervention in Ukraine is likely, depending on how well Putin and Co can tolerate NATO bases this close to their border. It may also not matter to them how Russia will be regarded in the West past military intervention, given these people and some companies are already sanctioned and there is no clear path to scale things back. And in addition, EU will still not be able to stop buying Russian gas in the short to medium term at least.