Ukranian Crisis

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Hi I also would like to thank Feanor for his excellent contributions to this thread.

Although I have been reading this forum for a few years now, this will also be my first contribution to this forum.

The Dutch government currently has advanced plants to send an international armed mission towards the crash site to secure the wreckage, the surrounding area and to protect the independent investigators, which I personally think is a foolish idea as the risks are huge.

These “separatists” aren’t some ragamuffin group of rebels, armed with nothing more than some PKM’s, RPG’s and AK47’s like in Afghanistan or Mali. We would literally be sticking our head in an anthill in which the ants are drunk and armed with tanks, artillery and antiaircraft missiles.

In order to secure the crash site and the surrounding area we would literally need thousands of troops, artillery, armor and of course both fixed wing and rotary air support. You would basically need enough troops and equipment to fight a small war.

And as the rebels have already stated that they would not tolerate such a mission, even establishing this secured area and subsequently resupplying the troops within would be a nightmare as the rebel’s control the surrounding countryside and have SAM’s, so both ground and air insertion and resupply would be very difficult.

The rebels will inevitably take some potshots (or even send over some grad salvos) at these troops, so a direct confrontation, with all its inherent risks involved, would basically be inevitable. When such a confrontation happens, Russian citizens will either directly or indirectly get hurt or killed, so a political confrontation with Russia is thus bound to happen.

It’s my personal opinion that the whole idea is just basically silly to start with, as the Dutch have no vested interests in this conflict and have no living citizens in immediate threat. But feel free to correct me in this.
 

Twain

Active Member
Ukraine’s prime minister resigns as coalition falls apart

Ukraine


This may partly explain the offensive the Ukranians are conducting. One of the larger criticisms against Poroshenko was that he wasn't pursuing the war aggressively enough. So by launching a fairly successful offensive just before his coalition breaks up, he positions his party and supporters in a better light for the upcoming elections.

Second reason for launching the offensive now, fall is approaching. The wheat harvest is already underway and the rest of the crops will need to be harvested starting in a little over a month, they don't need a war in the middle of the harvest as agricultural exports are pretty important in the Ukraine.

Third. Money, IMF funds can keep Ukraine fighting for another few months but not forever.

Fourth, weakness among the rebels and mercenaries. It looks like the ukranian army is making progress in surrounding Donetsk and Luhansk. If these two cities fall, there isn't much of a base for the rebels to operate from. They have to fight in cities because they are heavily outnumbered in tanks and armored vehicles and city terrain and obstacles helps them negate that advantage.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The 79th Airmobile Bde was hit by enemy indirect fire. The result is another scene of desolation. It looks like 1 T-64, 2 BMPs, and a handful of trucks and guns.

bmpd.livejournal.com/930062.html
зри в корень - Ð£Ð½Ð¸Ñ‡Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ° 79й украинÑкой бригады
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFNGIT-wo9Y#t=14

Video of government troops under arty fire. Allegedly the fire is coming from inside Russia.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ðртналет по позициÑм ВСУ

Photo of a destroyed government T-64 and dead crew, killed near Donetsk. Warning VERY GRAPHIC IMAGES.

jerry24_it:

Rebel UAV shot down near Amvrosievka.

jerry24_it:

Another UAV shot down in Kharkov region.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - РоÑÑийÑкий БПЛРв ХарьковÑкой облаÑти

Battle damage in Dzerzhinsk.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/239639.html

Strelkov says that rebels have left Lisichansk, but are successfully defending Gorlovka and Debal'tsevo. Government militia Donbass commander confirm, they've taken Lisichansk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñòðåëêîâ ïðèçíàë, ÷òî Ëèñè÷àíñê îñòàâèëè ïî åãî ïðèêàçó. Ñåïàðàòèñòîâ òåñíÿò ïî âñåì ôðîíòàì
zloy_odessit -

Photos out of Lisichansk, and a video.

zloy_odessit -
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr-Y2UC6t0E"]Украина, ЛиÑичанÑк 23.07.14 11:00-13:00, обÑтрел артиллерией - YouTube[/nomedia]

Russian officials say they have evidence of Nadezhda Savchenko's guilt in the deaths of Russian journalists.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÊÐ íàøåë â òåëåôîíå ëåò÷èöû Ñàâ÷åíêî äîêàçàòåëüñòâà åå âèíû â ãèáåëè æóðíàëèñòîâ èç ÐÔ

NATO says Russian supplies of weapons to the rebels have increased since the Boeing shoot down.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  ÍÀÒÎ óòâåðæäàþò, ÷òî ïîòîê îðóæèÿ èç Ðîññèè íà âîñòîê Óêðàèíû ïîñëå êðóøåíèÿ Boeing óâåëè÷èëñÿ
 

Twain

Active Member
Yep. And as of yesterday the message was still up, he didn't even take it down.
I think that particualr one is down now but the ukranians are scouring the net for more and posting screen captures. How long before russia bans it's soldiers from using social media? plausible deniability of the shelling is pretty much gone now.
 
Parliament of Kiev 2 days ago, this is what western countries sponsor and supports. The comunist party of Ukraine declared illegal, after the party of regions this is the second time that one of the main parties of Ukraine is forbidden.

[nomedia]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jZdfkDBHksc[/nomedia]
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Parliament of Kiev 2 days ago, this is what western countries sponsor and supports. The comunist party of Ukraine declared illegal, after the party of regions this is the second time that one of the main parties of Ukraine is forbidden.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jZdfkDBHksc
They talked about setting up a Ministry of Propaganda. The parallels sometimes are just too much. :(

I think that particualr one is down now but the ukranians are scouring the net for more and posting screen captures. How long before russia bans it's soldiers from using social media? plausible deniability of the shelling is pretty much gone now.
Yep. At this point I don't know why don't just step in all the way and take out the Ukrainian military quickly and decisively. There would be less casualties, certainly less collateral damage (since the fighting wouldn't last very long) and they'd then be able help rebuild the east directly, since they'd be involved.

Of course, I suppose, they'll keep pretending like this isn't the case which gives Europe the option of pretending likewise.
 

Strannik

Member
...
Of course, I suppose, they'll keep pretending like this isn't the case which gives Europe the option of pretending likewise.
I think there more sanctions are being piled on Russia, the more support to the rebels we should expect. After all once Russia is already being punished for such support anyway, why not to provide this support for real.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Hi I also would like to thank Feanor for his excellent contributions to this thread.

Although I have been reading this forum for a few years now, this will also be my first contribution to this forum.

The Dutch government currently has advanced plants to send an international armed mission towards the crash site to secure the wreckage, the surrounding area and to protect the independent investigators, which I personally think is a foolish idea as the risks are huge.

These “separatists” aren’t some ragamuffin group of rebels, armed with nothing more than some PKM’s, RPG’s and AK47’s like in Afghanistan or Mali. We would literally be sticking our head in an anthill in which the ants are drunk and armed with tanks, artillery and antiaircraft missiles.

In order to secure the crash site and the surrounding area we would literally need thousands of troops, artillery, armor and of course both fixed wing and rotary air support. You would basically need enough troops and equipment to fight a small war.

And as the rebels have already stated that they would not tolerate such a mission, even establishing this secured area and subsequently resupplying the troops within would be a nightmare as the rebel’s control the surrounding countryside and have SAM’s, so both ground and air insertion and resupply would be very difficult.

The rebels will inevitably take some potshots (or even send over some grad salvos) at these troops, so a direct confrontation, with all its inherent risks involved, would basically be inevitable. When such a confrontation happens, Russian citizens will either directly or indirectly get hurt or killed, so a political confrontation with Russia is thus bound to happen.

It’s my personal opinion that the whole idea is just basically silly to start with, as the Dutch have no vested interests in this conflict and have no living citizens in immediate threat. But feel free to correct me in this.
You're right. An armed mission is a silly idea. Why not send an unarmed mission? You have plenty of fine officers and civilians who have served in UN missions and been in these situations before and know how to handle them. I can think of several of your countrymen I worked with in former Yugoslavia who would do a fine job of dealing with the rebels. Mix a few of these people in with the professional recovery folks and they should all be fine. You hand out Marlboro Reds to the guys, treat them like human beings, and drunk or not, they don't shoot you. At least they never shot me -- I always made sure I had plenty of Marlboros.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I think there more sanctions are being piled on Russia, the more support to the rebels we should expect. After all once Russia is already being punished for such support anyway, why not to provide this support for real.
You seem to be missing the point that without Russian support to date, there likely wouldn't be an ongoing rebellion. Munitions and fighters (volunteers), flowing through the boarder is assistance.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
You seem to be missing the point that without Russian support to date, there likely wouldn't be an ongoing rebellion. Munitions and fighters (volunteers), flowing through the boarder is assistance.
Obviously. His point, the same as mine is, since Russia is committed to this intervention they should do it directly, instead of doing it by proxy. The clamor for direct intervention in Russia, especially in the press, is quite significant. So I don't think there's a domestic problem with support for an intervention. Internationally I don't think Russia is fooling anyone, and the diplomatic signals being sent right now look like Europe will not let this go, or let this slide. So then, why doesn't Russia go in, quickly, decisively, and present Europe with a fait accompli. European sanctions make a lot of sense as a way of deterring Russia, and directing the course of action, but make a lot less sense after the fact. And of course the numbers of civilian dead, and damage dealt to civilian infrastructure would be much lower. Not to mention that a direct intervention would mean a much more hands on approach to rebuilding the place after.

There is one other thing. As this fighting continues, the rest of Ukraine suffers more casualties, and Ukraine's scarce finances (already borrowed from the west) are being eaten up. Worsening relations with Russia, damage to infrastructure, increasing gas debts, deterioration of industry and manufacturing, all go further and further the longer this goes on. This may be an aspect of Russia's actions. The intent may be to put the Kiev government in a situation where win or lose, they're screwed in the medium term.
 

MikeSv

New Member
Rumors has it that OSCE has confirmed bullet holes in the wreckedge of MH17, i doubt this will change anything in the rethoric between Russian and the west. But this certanly suggest something else has happend (If true). I very much doubt that AAA's can hit a plane in +10km. Any ideas?

Sorry that i cant post link, but im usally only reading here :)
 
Latest new, the Dutch are going to deploy 40 unarmed military policemen to the crash site within 24 hours with orders to help with the investigation into the crash.
Australia is supposedly also sending 100 policemen to the area, although some of them will be armed.

The Dutch Korps commandotroepen (commando corps) and both battalions of the Dutch airborne brigade have had their weekend leave cancelled and are told to be on standby for a rapid deployment into Ukraine to secure the crash site.

I really hope we aren’t going to deploy armed troops to this area.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Rumors has it that OSCE has confirmed bullet holes in the wreckedge of MH17, i doubt this will change anything in the rethoric between Russian and the west. But this certanly suggest something else has happend (If true). I very much doubt that AAA's can hit a plane in +10km. Any ideas?

Sorry that i cant post link, but im usally only reading here :)
1. OSCE doesn't have crash investigators. It has not been doing a forensic examination of the wreckage. How can it have confirmed bullet holes?
2. You don't get bullet holes from most AA artillery. You get shrapnel holes.
3. What is the chance that one of those drunken militiamen put a couple of rounds into a piece of wreckage?

The height at which the aircraft was flying is known. If it was hit by 'bullets', it would have had to be flying very low. It therefore can't have been shot down by anything firing bullets.

If you're suggesting it was shot down by another aircraft, then what? Su-25? It can't catch an airliner flying at cruising speed at 10000 metres.
 

Strannik

Member
1. OSCE doesn't have crash investigators. It has not been doing a forensic examination of the wreckage. How can it have confirmed bullet holes?
2. You don't get bullet holes from most AA artillery. You get shrapnel holes.
3. What is the chance that one of those drunken militiamen put a couple of rounds into a piece of wreckage?...
Infinitely small, asymptotically disappearing into zero.
 

Toptob

Active Member
I was just scanning Dutch news and I read about the possible deployment to the Ukraine. It didn't say what it would entail, so thanks (of dank je wel) Wild Willie for that info. I read the PM said the armed mission was still "far from likely", but we are sending unarmed police from the Marrechaussee (the Dutch Gendarmerie).

I have to say though that especially because of the professionalism of the rebels I find it unlikely that an armed mission would be engaged in combat over there. If a mission is sent it would be under very strict and well known and publicized rules of engagement. Everyone would know what they're there for and it would be unwise to provoke a further response or escalation from the West.

Whatever your opinion on the idea of an armed mission or the Dutch government (my opinion on them is quite low). The way this disaster is being handled shows a decisiveness (daadkracht) that I'm not used to from my country at all. Which puts a new perspective on things because before all the Western country's and Nato and whatever bullshit aliances where all pissing their pants for the Russians. Same with Syria where Russia has a stake, where a timely intervention could possibly have prevented a lot of suffering.

A mission might be risky and dangerous. It's very possibly a bad or even stupid idea, but it's bold and exiting move that makes me a little proud. On the other hand it would seem that this turn of events made me think that the government troops had a motive to shoot down the plane.

My first analysis though was that it was very unlikely they made the shot because they are likely (hopefully) better trained and more disciplined than the Rebels. And because of limited air activity from the rebels... I mean it doesn't take an SA-11 to shoot down a small drone (is that even possible?).

Anyhow, talking about deploying the KCT and two whole batallions of airmobile troops. That's BIG stuff for us, I mean it's like half the combat strenght of the army. So Willie2, any info on what might be considered for deployment? Helicopters, transports ships? I mean I haven't found much yet.

anyhow, with regards
 

Relboon

New Member
Info from one of the rebel fighters, I forgot to post it here so this is couple of days old.

Как знающего английский отправили вечером с малайцами на место крушения. Укры были поставленны в известность о выезде. За Харцизском в паре км впереди нас они стали херачить по дороге с воздуха, забили как минимум одну гражданскую машину. Малайцы в ахуе. Возвращаемся в Донецк сейчас.

УПД. В связи с кучей вопросов, рассказываю подробнее. Выехали за Харцызск, проехали минут 5. Впереди звук разрывов. Встали на обочине, и мы и гражданские (на дороге машин много было). Впереди из-за деревьев дым поднялся, слышен гул самолётов (минимум двух). Навстечу летят машины с гражданскими, глаза по 5 копеек. Кричат в окно "Самолёты, бьют по дороге! Машины расстреливают!!!". За ними джихад-мобиль с нашими. Сказали, что в 2-3 км впереди Сушки отработали по дороге, накрыли одну машину. Малайцы посовещались, и сказали - "Дальше не едем, возвращаемся в Донецк". Гул самолётов появлялся и исчезал, пока мы стояли. Ну, собственно, и всё. Батальной сцены нема, если кто разочарован - звиняйте.
Translation by me ((text in double brackets is added by me as explanation, text in single brackets is the original authors, and sorry for the grammatical and other errors. )):
As someone who knows english, in the evening I was sent with Malaysians to the crash site. Ukrainians was notified about the departure. After we passed Harcizsk in couple of km ahead of us they ((Ukrainians)) started bombing the road from air, destroyed at least 1 civilian car. Malaysians is shocked. We are going back to Donetsk.

Update. Because of many questions, here is the more detailed version.
In about 5 minutes of driving after we left Harcizsk we heard ahead of us the sound of explosions. We stopped on the shoulder together with civilian cars (there was a lot of cars on the road). Ahead behind the trees we saw smoke and heard the planes (at least 2). From that direction came cars with civilians who was wide-eyed, they said "Planes, attacking the road ! Hunting for the cars !!!", after the civilians came the Dzihad-car with our guys ((I guess he meant the pickup truck with rebel fighters)), they said that about 2-3 km ahead SU planes attacked the road, destroyed 1 car. Malaysians decided to go back to Donetsk. While we were standing there the sound of planes was coming and going. Basically that is it, there is no pictures of the battle sorry if someone disappointed.
 
Hi Toptob, I just read that the cancellation of the weekend leave for the airmobile brigade was cancelled again just two hours ago. The Dutch government has for now decided to send 40 unarmed MP’s to the crash area to see if these would be sufficient to preserve the crashsite, so airmobile brigade headquarters does no longer expect to be deployed on short notice in the near future.
 
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