Ukranian Crisis

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Relboon

New Member
Strelok (call sign of DPR Minister of Defense) reported that this morning Ukrainian Armed took back the Chernovonyi Zary and Kozhevny, the southern UA group has a small window again. The rebels lost 2 tanks, 2 BMPs and more than 30 wounded.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
To sum it up, it's certainly an anti-Ukrainian propaganda piece, but what it depicts is fairly accurate. Indiscriminate shelling of residential quarters seems to be a standard mode of operating for the Ukrainian military. Given that they don't have infantry capable of effectively clearing these complex urban areas their strategy so far has been to use artillery and heavy weapons to reduce an urban area until the rebels are forced to withdraw. The price is heavy collateral damage.
It's a tactic the Nationalists used as standard in the Spanish Civil War, all sides used in WW2 & Korea, Israel used in Lebanon in 1982, I think both sides used in the Iraq-Iran war in 1980-88, & Russia used a great deal in Chechnya in the 1990s.
 

edmunsen12

New Member
Hi, I am new to this forum and I have joined to ask a question to people here who have obviously far more experience than me on this topic:

- How long does the smoke from a surface -air missile remain in the air to be visible from let's say 1-2 km away?
 

Twain

Active Member
Google Translated

Deputies from the "Liberty" offer the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to restore the status as a nuclear state.


http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/07/23/7032786/

I figured it was just a mater of time before this issue came up, but int he broader perspective, russia sponsoring an invasion of Ukraine sends exactly the wrong message about nuclear weapons.

Ukraine

A. Russia and the United States sign an agreement with Ukraine that if they give up nuclear weapons, They will guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

B Russia Sponsors an invasion of Ukraine


Libya

A. Gives up wmd programs

B. qadaffi dead and the entire nation in turmoil

North Korea

A. Keeps nuclear Weapons

B.status quo remains in place

Iran

Anyone want to guess what the outcome of the talks will be?


I know I am stating the obvious here, but this is just another reason that russia's actions are so incredibly stupid from both a regional and world stability standpoint. They have just reinforced the concept that if you have nukes and keep them, you are secure from destabilization and attack. Give them up and you are screwed.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
They have just reinforced the concept that if you have nukes and keep them, you are secure from destabilization and attack. Give them up and you are screwed.
Not sure about this in the Russia/Ukraine context but this is something the North Korean leadership took to heart years ago; and the reason the Iranian leadership decided to create the ability to make nukes if there was ever a need. As his forces were being hit by NATO and rebels started to gain ground; Gadaffi probably rued the day when he agreed to abandon his WMD programme.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Not sure about this in the Russia/Ukraine context but this is something the North Korean leadership took to heart years ago; and the reason the Iranian leadership decided to create the ability to make nukes if there was ever a need. As his forces were being hit by NATO and rebels started to gain ground; Gadaffi probably rued the day when he agreed to abandon his WMD programme.
I believe he said as much well before then. He pointed out Iraq as the lesson, compared to other states.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Google Translated

Deputies from the "Liberty" offer the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to restore the status as a nuclear state.


''

I figured it was just a mater of time before this issue came up, but int he broader perspective, russia sponsoring an invasion of Ukraine sends exactly the wrong message about nuclear weapons.
Svoboda is insane, to put it mildly. I wouldn't give them much credence. Given the weakness of the Ukrainian state, if Ukraine does produce a batch of nuclear bombs, how hard do you think it would be for an SVR, FSB, or GRU team to seize the facility?

Ukraine

A. Russia and the United States sign an agreement with Ukraine that if they give up nuclear weapons, They will guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

B Russia Sponsors an invasion of Ukraine
Those political realities are long gone. And, to be honest, Ukraine put itself in this position through a succession of bad leadership, an absolutely awful if not treasonous national elite, and an economy that imports from the west but exports to the east. Russian behavior is problematic, and quite aggressive, but ultimately forseeable (even expected).

I know I am stating the obvious here, but this is just another reason that russia's actions are so incredibly stupid from both a regional and world stability standpoint. They have just reinforced the concept that if you have nukes and keep them, you are secure from destabilization and attack. Give them up and you are screwed.
By that logic the invasion of Iraq was wrong, as was the bombing campaign in Libya.

Of course then Syria is proof of the opposite. Give up your WMDs, and don't get bombed.

It's a tactic the Nationalists used as standard in the Spanish Civil War, all sides used in WW2 & Korea, Israel used in Lebanon in 1982, I think both sides used in the Iraq-Iran war in 1980-88, & Russia used a great deal in Chechnya in the 1990s.
Yep. In other words, the content of the video is probably authentic, and even ordinary in this conflict. Actually Russia in Chechnya did much worse then Ukraine is currently doing. There the destruction was total, where as here we only have small quantities of artillery.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Government troops have retaken Kozhevnya and Chervonaya Zarya. Fighting continues around Marinovka.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Стрелок на ÑвÑзи...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-atUUb3hUJQ

Bezler continues to defend Gorlovka, despite reports of it falling.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Юго-ВоÑток Украины: война без конца...

There is unclear info on a night time counter-attack into Severo-Donetsk and Lisichansk, by the rebels. If correct, they may have destroyed significant numbers of government troops and equipment. Who controls the towns is unclear, likely nobody.

Результаты контрнаÑÑ‚ÑƒÐ¿Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ð¸ ЛÐР. ЛиÑичанÑк оÑвобождён. ПодробноÑти. | ÐÐ»ÑŒÑ‚ÐµÑ€Ð½Ð°Ñ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ð°Ñ ÐŸÐ¾Ð»Ð¸Ñ‚Ð¸ÐºÐ° | Alternate-Politics.info

Note the material in this link is VERY GRAPHIC. These are the results of a rebel counter-attack in Dzerzhinsk. Some of the troops were defeated outside. A number of government troops (National Guard) were burned alive in the Dzerzhinsk city administration building. The airmobile forces column sent to reinforce them didn't enter the city. The second video shows similarly badly burned bodies, elsewhere. Details are lacking. Note that government troops seem to be in Dzerzhinsk despite the rebel counter-attack.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - 79-Ñ Ð°ÑÑ€Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð¸ ДзержинÑк...

Meanwhile the Donetsk airport is effectively unblocked by government troops. The rebels pulled back without a fight.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Стрелок на ÑвÑзи...

Heavy fighting continues in the surrounded units in the southern maneuver element. The 79th Airmobile Bde reports massive use of rebel artillery and mortars against them, with nearly half of the personnel dead or wounded.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Об окруженцах

Two Su-25s shot down near Saur-Mogila. Both were shot down by MANPADS. Kiev confirms the loss of two Su-25s.

bmpd -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfotnnYpzes
militarizm:
Официальный Киев подтвердил факт потери двух штурмовиков Су-25

Government forces shoot down another UAV.

УкраинÑкие военные Ñбили очередной беÑпилотный летательный аппарат

Russia passed on their info on the downed Boeing to the EU, but so far has received no response.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ïåðåäàëà ÅÑ äàííûå Ìèíîáîðîíû î êðóøåíèè Boeing íà Óêðàèíå: "ïîêà íèêàêîé ðåàêöèè"

The rebels admit having a Buk SAM.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îäèí èç ëèäåðîâ óêðàèíñêèõ ñåïàðàòèñòîâ ïðèçíàëñÿ, ÷òî îêîëî Ñíåæíîãî áûë "Áóê" â ìîìåíò êàòàñòðîôû ñ Boeing

Kiev suggests sanctions against Russian press for taking a pro-rebel position.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Êèåâå ïðåäëàãàþò çàïðåòèòü ãëàâàì ðîññèéñêèõ òåëåêàíàëîâ âçúåçä â "öèâèëèçîâàííûå ñòðàíû"

Artillery shells from Ukraine once again landed on the Russian side of the border.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà òåððèòîðèþ Ðîñòîâñêîé îáëàñòè ñíîâà ïîïàëè ñíàðÿäû ñî ñòîðîíû Óêðàèíû
 

wsb05

Member
Update.

Two Su-25s shot down near Saur-Mogila. Both were shot down by MANPADS. Kiev confirms the loss of two Su-25s.

bmpd -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfotnnYpzes
militarizm:
Официальный Киев подтвердил факт потери двух штурмовиков Су-25

Government forces shoot down another UAV.

УкраинÑкие военные Ñбили очередной беÑпилотный летательный аппарат

Russia passed on their info on the downed Boeing to the EU, but so far has received no response.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ïåðåäàëà ÅÑ äàííûå Ìèíîáîðîíû î êðóøåíèè Boeing íà Óêðàèíå: "ïîêà íèêàêîé ðåàêöèè"

The rebels admit having a Buk SAM.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îäèí èç ëèäåðîâ óêðàèíñêèõ ñåïàðàòèñòîâ ïðèçíàëñÿ, ÷òî îêîëî Ñíåæíîãî áûë "Áóê" â ìîìåíò êàòàñòðîôû ñ Boeing

Kiev suggests sanctions against Russian press for taking a pro-rebel position.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Êèåâå ïðåäëàãàþò çàïðåòèòü ãëàâàì ðîññèéñêèõ òåëåêàíàëîâ âçúåçä â "öèâèëèçîâàííûå ñòðàíû"

Artillery shells from Ukraine once again landed on the Russian side of the border.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà òåððèòîðèþ Ðîñòîâñêîé îáëàñòè ñíîâà ïîïàëè ñíàðÿäû ñî ñòîðîíû Óêðàèíû

Why the heck are there Shia fighters in the conflict? militarizm:

In the first photo you see a fighter with " Ya Hussein" shia symbol in arabic on his head. First time I see this style. This is not an arab fighter and I am not aware aware of Shia presence in Chechnia.
 

the concerned

Active Member
Can I ask do you think it would be justified for western governments to find this SA-11 and eliminate it as it is clearly in the wrong hands. I've said this before we can't just sit around and hope this will not happen again. The Ukrainian forces must be struggling to maintain air cover so what then does this system go back to Russia or do they sell it to finance their conflict which means it could end up in anyones hands
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
and just to muddy the waters

MH17: Pro-Russian separatist commander acknowledges fighters had Buk missile launcher - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

and an article by John Bruni

http://www.linkedin.com/groupAnswer...-1&trk=view_disc&fromEmail=&ut=0xwHcXi4DlCCk1

self disclosure - John and I were members of the RUSI_SA (Aust version of RUSI, SA Chapter) at one stage - I'm now in a different state and have no membership of RUSI-SA

His article is personally interesting for me in the fact that it echoes a lot of what I've been saying earlier
 
Last edited:

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Hi, I am new to this forum and I have joined to ask a question to people here who have obviously far more experience than me on this topic:

- How long does the smoke from a surface -air missile remain in the air to be visible from let's say 1-2 km away?
it's influenced by meterological conditions

if its windy at that altitude - ) and it surely will be as there are known currents that occur at various altitudes) - then it will disperse quickly

its a "how long is a piece of string" question
 

Twain

Active Member
Svoboda is insane, to put it mildly. I wouldn't give them much credence. Given the weakness of the Ukrainian state, if Ukraine does produce a batch of nuclear bombs, how hard do you think it would be for an SVR, FSB, or GRU team to seize the facility?
Of course svoboda is crazy but that was just an example to make my point. But to address Ukraine in particular, right now parties representing a bit over 50% of their parliament have made similar statements in the last 2-3 months so it's not it as if this is an out of the mainstream idea in Ukraine. Now having said that, If Ukraine eventually wants EU and NATO membership they will never go down that road.

Those political realities are long gone. And, to be honest, Ukraine put itself in this position through a succession of bad leadership, an absolutely awful if not treasonous national elite, and an economy that imports from the west but exports to the east. Russian behavior is problematic, and quite aggressive, but ultimately forseeable (even expected).
It's a shame those realities are gone, isn't it? But again it just reinforces my point. It sends a number of messages one of which is give up nukes, get bombed, invaded and/or destabilized.

By that logic the invasion of Iraq was wrong, as was the bombing campaign in Libya.
Of course they were wrong. If you expected me to defend those actions, it won't happen. The mess in both countries are the result of short sighted policies that failed to even remotely predict the consequences of the invasion and bombing.


Of course then Syria is proof of the opposite. Give up your WMDs, and don't get bombed.
Except Assad just switched to other chemical weapons and we've yet to see if Assad's head ends up hanging on someones wall. They didn't get bombed but they are suffering an invasion from outside forces supported by other countries, much like Ukraine, right?
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Ukraine

A. Russia and the United States sign an agreement with Ukraine that if they give up nuclear weapons, They will guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

B Russia Sponsors an invasion of Ukraine


Libya

A. Gives up wmd programs

B. qadaffi dead and the entire nation in turmoil

North Korea

A. Keeps nuclear Weapons

B.status quo remains in place

Iran

Anyone want to guess what the outcome of the talks will be?


I know I am stating the obvious here, but this is just another reason that russia's actions are so incredibly stupid from both a regional and world stability standpoint. They have just reinforced the concept that if you have nukes and keep them, you are secure from destabilization and attack. Give them up and you are screwed.
Things are a little more complicated than that, where nation leaders make choices that maximize the EXPECTED outcomes. Recent events could change future expectations, it's always a changing game, but soon and certain problems often outweight future and uncertain ones.

Examples of soon and certain problems:
A. Keeps nuclear weapons
B. Goes broke and faces consequences of the weapons falling into wrong hands.

A. Not give up WMD programs
B. Face serious and immediate repercussions

A. Keeps nuclear Weapons
B. Faces severe international sanctions
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Why the heck are there Shia fighters in the conflict? militarizm:

In the first photo you see a fighter with " Ya Hussein" shia symbol in arabic on his head. First time I see this style. This is not an arab fighter and I am not aware aware of Shia presence in Chechnia.
Lord knows. There are volunteer fighters from all over the ex-USSR. There are Shia's in Russia for example. Not huge numbers... but it's certainly possible one of them ended up there.

Can I ask do you think it would be justified for western governments to find this SA-11 and eliminate it as it is clearly in the wrong hands. I've said this before we can't just sit around and hope this will not happen again. The Ukrainian forces must be struggling to maintain air cover so what then does this system go back to Russia or do they sell it to finance their conflict which means it could end up in anyones hands
Which one? It's still not clear which system was used. There is some info that a rebel system that may have been used, is now back in Russia. So it's unreachable. There's the question of how you find it, and the question of how you verify it's the right one. Finally, does it solve anything? Russia can provide the rebels with a replacement quite easily. And this is without even considering the wider context of your suggestion.

Ukraine is delivering weapons to all kinds of questionable customers already, and destroying a single SAM launcher isn't going to change that.

Of course svoboda is crazy but that was just an example to make my point. But to address Ukraine in particular, right now parties representing a bit over 50% of their parliament have made similar statements in the last 2-3 months so it's not it as if this is an out of the mainstream idea in Ukraine. Now having said that, If Ukraine eventually wants EU and NATO membership they will never go down that road.
Nuclear weapons are expensive. Reliable deterrence against Russia or the US requires a complete triad and an early warning system. This isn't even close to being affordable. Ukraine can't pay their soldiers a decent wage, can't give them modern tactical gear, or decent vehicles. But they will suddenly afford a nuclear arsenal? Come on.

It's a shame those realities are gone, isn't it? But again it just reinforces my point. It sends a number of messages one of which is give up nukes, get bombed, invaded and/or destabilized.
That's one way to interpret this. Not the only way. There are huge complications that come with WMDs.

Except Assad just switched to other chemical weapons and we've yet to see if Assad's head ends up hanging on someones wall. They didn't get bombed but they are suffering an invasion from outside forces supported by other countries, much like Ukraine, right?
Again that's one way to look at it. It's not the only message you can take away from it. Generally the issue is that if your country is large, wealthy, and stable enough to afford a nuclear arsenal and all the things that go with it, you're probably not a high risk for a US invasion in the first place.
 

Rimasta

Member
Hi, I am new to this forum and I have joined to ask a question to people here who have obviously far more experience than me on this topic:

- How long does the smoke from a surface -air missile remain in the air to be visible from let's say 1-2 km away?
The SA-11 is said to leave very little in the way of smoke exhaust, meaning it would be difficult even for a fighter pilot to see the incoming SAM and evade. In a passenger jet, chances are they'd have no idea, no warning at all, and even people with a camera won't see the corkscrew flight path of the SAM. Newer generations of anti-aircraft missiles don't leave smoke trails typically.


So from 2 km away, chances are you'll only see the burning aircraft falling out of the sky.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Just currious..How big Nuclear infrastructure within Ukraine this days ? I mean having USSR basing some of it's nuclear arsenal in Ukraine, or having some USSR nuclear facility before..does not mean they can switch to Nuclear arsenal right away..

How big the avalability of Nuclear weapons scientiest in Ukraine now days..?
How much nuclear asenal develeopment facility that Ukraine has (or that USSR did placed in Ukraine before)..??
Is the remnants of old USSR Nuclear Reactors in Ukraine can be switch to Plutonium breeders reactors..considering most of them is Power Plant Nuclear reactor..?

I got impression that most of technological based on developing Nuclear arenal within USSR is located in Russia..Is there avalability of complete nuclear arsenal development infrastructure (Hard and Soft infrastructure)..in ex USSR Republics outside Russia...??

Ukraine gave up it's nuclear arsenal from my understanding also related due to the 'fact' they do not have enough capability to continue support them properly...let alone for further development of Nuclear arsenal..

So Svoboda can day dream as hard as they can..but back to reality..is there enough Technology and supporting Infrastructure in Ukraine to support they dream..??
Let alone the big fact they are broke...
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
First, a huge thank you to Feanor and others for providing timely news and excellent analysis. I have been reading for a long time, but never posted here. I'm most grateful to have found this sane corner of the internet.

I have a question I haven't been able to find the answer to myself about that Reuters piece referenced yesterday by Feanor. I can't post the link, being new, but if you google "Exclusive - Ukraine rebel commander acknowledges fighters had BUK missile" you will find it easily. I recall reading somewhere that Khodakovsky had recently been sidelined by by the rebel leadership, but perhaps was mistaken as the only references I could find via google search turned up Col. Cassad and a strange German blog called "Moon of Alabama" which I suspect might have been better titled "Moonbat of Alabama".

Does anyone here know what Khodakovsky's current status is?

Again, thank you all for keeping us informed and up-to-date on the situation in Ukraine. Please overlook my goofy moniker here (from an ancient Gomer Pyle episode) -- I thought I would never post, but only read.
 

Relboon

New Member
I would sugest stop with the nonsense about that "BUK that was sent back to Russia", please someone find and post video from Анатолий Шарий on the subject (I cannot post any links).
This guy constantly destroys ukrainian "news", now that he adds english subtitles to some of his new video, I really recommend watching him, I hope it will give you a good understanding about what really is happening in UA.

Capt. Ironpants
Officialy Khodakovsky left the position of head of DNR MVD, then the battalion "East" was transferred under Streloks (DNR Minister of Defense) command, it all happened as soon as Strelok left Slavyansk and came to Donetsk. Unofficially the information is that Khodakovsky (who is ex SBU operative) was a traitor all along, and he was removed quietly, he saved his life and kind of reputation, and Strelok didnt had to take him out by force (not a very good situation if there is open firefight between separatists).
 
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