Ukranian Crisis

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wittmanace

Active Member
I see, thanks. I just wanted to clarify, as stating german flights with troops flew there safely could imply the downers of the plane were able to discriminate aircraft types or flights, if one was looking for that info, as I was. I see now you didnt state that as you didnt comment on that either way. I didnt want to be infering too much.

It seems the stage we are at now, Cameron's comments today for example, are that it is understood that this was unintended? I was unsure, partly due to how the press here in the UK had been reporting, if there would be a move to suggest it was.
 
Update.

The Ukrainian offensive is quite powerful, but also quite desperate. There are a couple of opinions on why. Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, for example, reports that the war is eating 1.5 bln grivnas a month, but the funds left right now are only 520 mlns.

Минфин: Ðа проведение ÐТО на ВоÑтоке необходимо около 1,5 млрд грн в меÑÑц - Ð*кономика - 112.ua
Thanks again Feanor for all these updates and the ones back in '08. :)

Just to go further with the point above. The 2nd tranche ($1.4bio) of the IMF $17bio package was approved on Friday (18/7). This will be released to Ukraine in the following weeks.

Note; The current package is under review and being considered for a revision up, as the latest data suggest a larger contraction on the economy for this year (forecasted officially to be down -6.5%)..

Seperatley and from something I mentioned again a few days ago. Deputy Russian PM Rogozin commenting on Mistral contract with France. Not sure if this in reply to a direct comment by the French or a response to general media noise coming from Britain, US, NATO et al.. From reading his comments, he seems to be coming across churlish.. Maybe it's out of context?
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/741690
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I see, thanks. I just wanted to clarify, as stating german flights with troops flew there safely could imply the downers of the plane were able to discriminate aircraft types or flights, if one was looking for that info, as I was. I see now you didnt state that as you didnt comment on that either way. I didnt want to be infering too much.

It seems the stage we are at now, Cameron's comments today for example, are that it is understood that this was unintended? I was unsure, partly due to how the press here in the UK had been reporting, if there would be a move to suggest it was.
For rebel operators, to tell that a plane is not a Ukrainian military transport trying to resupply government troops, it may not be necessary to discriminate aircraft types. Just being able to see that a plane is flying from east to west may be sufficient.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
For rebel operators, to tell that a plane is not a Ukrainian military transport trying to resupply government troops, it may not be necessary to discriminate aircraft types. Just being able to see that a plane is flying from east to west may be sufficient.
the German flights, for example, go in both directions I assume? The airliner was going west to east as we know. I just dont see any party in this being willing to shoot down an airliner knowingly
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Star said:
MH17: Malaysian team receives black boxes recovered from crash site - YouTube

22 July 2014 -- DONETSK: Malaysian officials received the two MH17 black boxes from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) in Ukraine. At 6.11am Tuesday, DPR representatives showed up at their government headquarters here with the Malaysian government representatives. Speaking to the press, DPR leader Alexander Borodai thanked Malaysia and the Netherlands for sending teams here on Monday to resolve the MH17 matter.

"(Our) thanks to Malaysia and Netherlands for coming here without protection or help from Kiev (the Ukrainian government)," he said, according to a rough translation by a local.

A handover ceremony then took place between the DPR and Malaysian officials...

The boxes were then inspected and later accepted by the Malaysian officials. A man who introduced himself as Kol Mohd Shukri of the National Security Council thanked Borodai for handing the boxes back to Malaysia.

...On Monday Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak reached an agreement with Ukrainian rebels for custody of the black boxes and access to the Malaysia airlines flight MH17 crash site.
Step one, the black boxes are now in Malaysian custody. Hopefully, the Malaysian approach will bring results.

It is also reported that the train of refrigerated carriages has rolled out of the station in the rebel-controlled city of Torez, carrying bodies collected from the crash site. The train contained the bodies of 282 of the victims, as well as 87 other body fragments. Step two, would be to get the bodies of the victims under Malaysian or Dutch custody, so that the two Malaysian C-130Hs that have been deployed to a staging area nearby can bring them home. I also understand that the Dutch military plane that will transport the bodies of those who died has landed in Kharkiv, Ukraine, but the train carrying the bodies has been delayed.

See the partial CCTV news report explaining that the United Nations Security Council on July 21, 2014 passed a resolution on the safe access to the crash site of MH17 and ceasefire in eastern Ukraine: http://youtu.be/9l1zZArAXE4

The Malaysian military's low key deployments in support of the recovery mission have been instrumental in enabling the handovers. I continue to pray for their safety, as they do their best in a tough situation. I echo and support Singapore's low key offer of help, if requested. As Singapore's Minister of Defence noted on his facebook page on 18 July 2014:-
Ng Eng Hen said:
Sent personal letters to my counterparts - Malaysian Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein and Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Minister for Defence of the Netherlands. I expressed our deepest condolences for the tragic crash of Malaysia Airlines #MH17. 192 of the victims were Dutch and 44 were Malaysians. This is a heart-wrenching time for their people. For the Malaysians, a double tragedy so close to MH370. Our sympathies and prayers go to them, especially the families of the passengers and crew during this difficult time. I have also asked Hisham to let me know if there is anything Singapore or the SAF can do to assist.

- Ng Eng Hen
It has also been reported that getting appropriate permissions for international experts to enter the war-torn region has proved problematic. Michael Bociurkiw, a spokesman for the OSCE, called the process a "logistical nightmare". The three Dutch specialists, who travelled from Kharkiv, said that they had been accompanied part of the way by the Ukrainian army before being passed over to an escort of rebels.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
How do you get the English translation of the video? Couldn't figure it out.

Thanks, Art
You don't need to "get" it. If you watch it, first the MoD general speaks in Russia, then a translator translates into english.

Feanor: I've seen a few reports that Dbaltseve fell to Ukranian forces today, can you confirm this? Also reports of fighting near Shizne, if this is correct it looks like it could make resupply of Donetsk a bit difficult.
Snezhnoe was being hit by massive airstrikes. It could be under physical attack, if the government troops want to cut the road between Donetsk and Lugansk. You should also be aware that the rebel attack towards the border, at Saur-Mogila and Marinovka, originated from Snezhnoe. The supply lines and reinforcements for that also go through Snezhnoe. If Snezhnoe falls, the government troops might be able to get reinforcement through to maneuver element south, or what's left of it.

I'm not sure what town you refer to when you say Dbaltseve. What's the Russian or Ukrainian spelling?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

A T-64BV destroyed by rebels, north of Donetsk.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - -4

Meanwhile Dzerzhinsk may not have fallen, or may be contested.

УкраинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ð±ÑтрелÑла из "Градов" город ДзержинÑк, еÑÑ‚ÑŒ погибшие

Three captured foreigners among the rebels, two Russians and one Israeli.

zloy_odessit -

Government btln Aydar has captured a person who is supposed to be a deputy-Minister of Defense for South Ossetia. He was there delivering medical supplies to the rebels, but claims he did not participate in any fighting.

zloy_odessit -

The rebels have handed over the black boxes for the downed plane.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñåïàðàòèñòû ÄÍÐ ïåðåäàëè "÷åðíûå ÿùèêè" ðàçáèâøåãîñÿ Boeing ýêñïåðòàì èç Ìàëàéçèè

Russian MinDef material used to accuse Ukraine of the shoot down.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Материалы объективного ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ñ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ð»Ñ ÐœÐž РФ по Боингу

And this is material on the Buk that the pro-Russian side claims shot down the Boeing.

ЧаÑтный Ñ€Ñкий журнал - Палёный Бук. Ðпдейт.

Belarus, after the trade war, is now halting joint defense projects with Ukraine.

МинÑк решил отойти от нейтралитета в отношении Киева
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The Malaysian Prime Minister has revealed that he has been having talks with the Prime Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Borodai.

"In recent days, there were times I wanted to give greater voice to the anger and grief that the Malaysian people feel and that I feel," he said. But sometimes, we must work quietly in the service of a better outcome."

It seems a Dutch air force C-130, with a Malaysian team on board, will fly the bodies to Holland. From there the Malaysian bodies will be flown home, probably by 2 Malaysian C-130s which are on standby. A Malaysian team was also at the site and on the train - with a Dutch team - which transported the bodies; this for some reason was not previously reported.

"Our thanks to Malaysia and Netherlands for coming here without protection or help from Kiev [the Ukrainian government]," said Alexander Borodai, according to a rough translation by a local.

Not saying anybody's guilty or jumping to conclusions but it'll be interesting to hear what a body language expert has to say about the pic on the left.
 
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wittmanace

Active Member
I get the impression that there are alot of professional conspiracy theorists. Any time theres an event, they have these complex crazy ideas they have spent hours on. And then theres those who pick a side and then choose facts etc accordingly.

I wonder what that Alex Jones guy will have to say (of the BBC interview infamy). Itll be outrageous for sure.
 

Twain

Active Member
Snezhnoe was being hit by massive airstrikes. It could be under physical attack, if the government troops want to cut the road between Donetsk and Lugansk. You should also be aware that the rebel attack towards the border, at Saur-Mogila and Marinovka, originated from Snezhnoe. The supply lines and reinforcements for that also go through Snezhnoe. If Snezhnoe falls, the government troops might be able to get reinforcement through to maneuver element south, or what's left of it.

I'm not sure what town you refer to when you say Dbaltseve. What's the Russian or Ukrainian spelling?
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Debal'tseve,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine/@48.3758489,38.5365069,12z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x40e06cbacd8d4763:0x451cc6338f9207c0?hl=en
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
An article on how Malaysia's 'back door' diplomacy managed to get hold of the black boxes and secure access to the crash site.

Malaysia Airlines MH17 crash: Malaysia quietly worked back channels to secure black boxes

A Russian briefing about a Ukranian Su-25 that apparently flew along the same path as MH17.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEbiSRFYTZY"]'Why did Ukraine SU-25 fly same path as MH17, simultaneously at same altitude?' - Russian Military - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bNPInuSqfs"]Malaysian Airlines plane crash: Russian military unveil data on MH17 incident over Ukraine (FULL) - YouTube[/nomedia]
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Lugansk is partially surrounded, and rebel lines are cut. Rebel leadership declares a counter-offensive, to unblock the city. I say partially because fighting seems to be continuing, and Ukrainian physical control is tenuous. However this is a definite success for government troops. The last attempt to surround Lugansk had failed with some losses. And the rebels ability for offensive operations seems to be quite limited. A brief push to the border, against relatively low resistance at Saur-Mogila took them forever.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Тем временем - Болотов...

Rebels are withdrawing from Lisichansk and Severo-Donetsk. A few units remain there, but they're under heavy government attack.

Сводка за первую половину Ð´Ð½Ñ 22 Ð¸ÑŽÐ»Ñ 2014 года
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêèå âîåííûå çàíÿëè êðóïíûé ïðîìûøëåííûé öåíòð â Ëóãàíñêîé îáëàñòè - ãîðîä Ñåâåðîäîíåöê

Dzerzhinsk has definitely fallen.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ðад ДзержинÑком поднÑли украинÑкий флаг

A group of 75 Ukrainian soldiers from the 79th Airmobile Bde managed to escape from the southern maneuver element positions, surrounded by the rebels. They brought out many wounded. The officer leading them did not have orders to do so, and acted on his own initiative.

ÐиколаевÑкие деÑантники прорвали оцепление и вывезли Ñ‚Ñжелораненых в тыл

Meanwhile the rebels have completed encirclement of the government forces, and have reached the Russian border at Kozhevnaya and Chervona Zarya. In the video you can see rebel armor, and mortars. Note the improvised rebel gun trucks.

The last link is the location of the video.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Таки "котёл"?..
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKe-uuuA87Y"]25-Ñ Ð°ÑÑ€Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð±Ñ€Ð¸Ð³Ð°Ð´Ð° оказалаÑÑŒ зажата отрÑдами защитников ДÐР - YouTube[/nomedia]
https://www.google.com/maps/place/K...2!3m1!1s0x40e1af558385c441:0xac3ed92d71dacfe2

A brief interview with rebels, near the Russian border, the ones responsible for cutting off maneuver element south. The describe government use of heavy arty against population points like the village they're in. They also say they're up against a professional army.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suXejksS4wY"]Ополченцы окружили Ñиловиков, отличившихÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´ СлавÑнÑком - YouTube[/nomedia]

Photos of rebels.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Донецк. Ополчение...

Rebel T-64BV in Donetsk.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iedf1ABRBhM"]Battalion Vostok Tank in Donetsk (21.07.14) - YouTube[/nomedia]

Rebel arty column, with 3 guns towed by 3 MT-LBs. Looks like a standard arty platoon.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nF6tPmQH_0"]ДÐР. Донецк. Бронетехника и Ñ‚ÑÐ¶ÐµÐ»Ð°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ñ‚Ð¸Ð»Ð»ÐµÑ€Ð¸Ñ ÐµÐ´ÑƒÑ‚ защищать город. 21.07.2014 / DPR - YouTube[/nomedia]

Government troops found a rebel IMR-2 abandoned by the rebels. And some videos of government forces moving into Dzerzhinsk.

jerry24_it:

Ukraine is declaring another partial mobilization, to replace casualties and some of the personnel that's been in the conflict zone too long.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Мобилизаци на Украине

Ukrainian Finance Minister said that a month of the war costs 130 mln dollars. That's roughly 4.3 mln per day. That's up from 3 mln, but still extremely low. Part of the reason for the low cost is the tiny pay and horrible food the soldiers get. Another part is the relatively high reliance on Soviet era stockpiles which don't cost money.

 

Russia promises to pressure the rebels for a full investigation of the shoot down.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí: ÐÔ áóäåò âîçäåéñòâîâàòü íà ñåïàðàòèñòîâ, ðîññèéñêèå âëàñòè ñîáèðàþòñÿ áîðîòüñÿ ñ ðàäèêàëèçìîì

Eyewitness reports say that at the time of the Boeing shoot down they observed two missile launches at what looked like a jet fighter.

Personal speculation: could they have been firing at a military jet, but accidentally re-acquired a different target (the Boeing)?

jerry24_it:
 

Twain

Active Member
The full answer will be in the update post. I haven't heard anything about Debal'tseve specifically, but things are happening around Lugansk.
It appears Dbal'tseve was attacked, strelkov claims they hold at least part of it but apparently the major highways going in and out are cut off. Ukrainian sources claim they have control. Either way if the highways are cut off, the links between donetsk and luhansk and more importantly Donetsk and Russia are very tenuous.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It appears Dbal'tseve was attacked, strelkov claims they hold at least part of it but apparently the major highways going in and out are cut off. Ukrainian sources claim they have control. Either way if the highways are cut off, the links between donetsk and luhansk and more importantly Donetsk and Russia are very tenuous.
It's a total mess. Watch this. So Dzerzhinsk fell. Then it turns out that it didn't fall. Then it fell again. Now rebels, hiding in the city, counter-attacked and destroyed government troops. Who controls the city? Lord knows.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
War crimes of the Kiev junta just 2 days ago, where are western mass media?, I know , trying to cover and silence it.

+18, very graphic images

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F0fHJ...has_verified=1&layout=mobile&client=mv-google
Ok I would like to see verification of the accuracy and reliability of that video. To me it appears to be a propaganda piece at the moment, however I could be wrong so please supply some independent verification. Secondly inflammatory comments don't help your case.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ok I would like to see verification of the accuracy and reliability of that video. To me it appears to be a propaganda piece at the moment, however I could be wrong so please supply some independent verification. Secondly inflammatory comments don't help your case.
Commentary about genocide is idiocy. Otherwise it looks legit. This is fairly routine. A little high on the body count, but then again Lugansk is under more fire now then before.

To be honest, I'm not sure what the point of posting it here is... random Ukrainian shelling of cities is well documented. I've mentioned it here a few times. The contents of this video are perfectly ordinary. Note that the video is not all shot in one place. So this isn't one mass shelling. It's multiple locations and multiple incidents. Not that they're trying to hide it, they identify locations. Civilian commentary might be staged. Or it might not be. No way for me to verify.

To sum it up, it's certainly an anti-Ukrainian propaganda piece, but what it depicts is fairly accurate. Indiscriminate shelling of residential quarters seems to be a standard mode of operating for the Ukrainian military. Given that they don't have infantry capable of effectively clearing these complex urban areas their strategy so far has been to use artillery and heavy weapons to reduce an urban area until the rebels are forced to withdraw. The price is heavy collateral damage.
 
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