Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

except they are not leaving the site undisturbed,

OSCE: "Some of the equipment seems to have been moved" from #MH17 site. No clue which rebels control the site. No idea where black boxes are

There's a reason I put it in quotations. They're "following orders" for the purpose of dealing with "outsiders". But they think they're entitled.

The OCSE observers are there to observe the entire site and hopefully prevent contamination/tampering withy any evidence. Instead we have mercenaries threatening to kneecap the observers and firing their weapons any time they try to leave the extremely limited area they are allowed to see. Everything they are doing is just going to reinforce world opinion that they are guilty and trying to hide something.

I don't think the grunts on the ground know what's going on. Why would they? I think they're being the undisciplined and ill-bred individuals they always were.

At least some investigators are in Ukraine now, we'll see what happens when they try to access the crash site. Depending on who you listen to among the rebels, they are supposed to be guaranteed open access to the crash site, my guess would be that we will see more of the same, threats and denial of access. The separatists are digging themselves a hole, the only question is how deep will they dig?

The rebels upper tier leadership has promised open access to international investigators. Hopefully they keep their promise.

CNN is going to do what it does best until all this gets resolved. Same thing they did during the Georgian war, Blame Russia.

Russia is always a "guilty until proven innocent" by CNN reporting. Will never get why

On the one hand, you're right. Media is approaching this with a "facts be damned, let's stick to the narrative". On the other hand if the rebels were only able to operate Buks because Russia gave them some, Russia is to blame. Giving the rebels that kind of tech is irresponsible and stupid, to put it mildly.

I'm wondering if Russia provided them with the Buk systems at this point. Because they captured some of them at the HQ of an air defense regiment. They may have captured others elsewhere, since the rest of the regiment is located in the region also, and could have fallen to the rebels. On the other hand the info I have says that the rebels managed to pull two partially functional TELARs, and nothing else, and couldn't get them operational.

This whole conflict Russia has played a silly game, where as soon as the rebels capture a certain type of equipment from the government, Russia would then proceed to provide more of that type. This makes it very hard to positively prove Russian supplies and their origin (not that the Ukrainians haven't tried). The real tip-off is the quantity. Like the Nona in Slavyansk (the one government troops handed over voluntarily before this got violent). There was one. Then the government troops destroyed it. But the rebels said that it was still functional, and it seemed to be true since 120mm mortar shells were still dropping on the government troops heads. After Slavyansk has fallen, we discover that there was a destroyed Nona there, abandoned by the rebels and captured by the government, and apparently two other Nona systems still functional, that the rebels took out of the town.

EDIT: Sorry, it's been a busy weekend. I'll make a news update post tomorrow.

 

[Feanor]

This is a blanket warning to everyone here. Post quality has been deteriorating drastically to the point where some of you are posting non-sensical drivel. At this point I will be banning people on the quick, for general idiocy, and non-sensical or flame-baiting posts. Read the rules, and follow them, or you will be gone.

 

[stojo]

CNN is going to do what it does best until all this gets resolved. Same thing they did during the Georgian war, Blame Russia.

Russia is always a "guilty until proven innocent" by CNN reporting. Will never get why

There is a strong common ground of interest between corporate capital, politics and media in US (and, indeed, everywhere else).

When rebels launched the chemical attack in Syria, it was but disregarded by CNN, but when the Washington administration accused Assad of launching chemical attack, some weeks later, CNN was screaming as hell for weeks, demanding the intervention... Virtually repeating the Iraq situation, no evidence, cherry picked intelligence, uncritical promotion of everything that comes from the mouth of Washington politicians, and loads of war mongering...

But one must be aware that Russian media is probably even worse than that, while Ukrainian mainstream is worse for an order of magnitude from both of these. When it comes to corporate media, none of them are "independent" or "objective". That is the reason why I like this forum, and also why I like picking info by my self from internet....

 

[Ananda]

unfort they still leave it up to national aviation authorities and the airlines to make that assessment

eg look at the volcanos over europe a few years back - and the volcanic ash issue

there was a lack of consistency across airlines and carriers as they all did their own risk assessments

I've talked with Garuda Indonesia (GA) people and asked why they did not take Ukraine route to Europe. They say, from Indonesia it's more efficient to used Turkey then Bulgaria route then Ukraine one. However Ukraine route is more efficient for Malaysian due to the possition of Kuala Lumpur vis a vis Jakarta.

Then I asked, it's wrong for MAS to keep using Ukraine's route considering the conflict situation? Then they said, how come you blame MAS or Malaysian authority ? They until that time still not got warning from Euro Control or Ukrainian on the increasing risks on that route 'if' you flight above certain level hight. Yes, each national authority should provide warning to their airliners on International route, however they also relied on the Information from Regional/National aviation authorities on each route they passed.

This is what I mean with the breakdown on risk assesment, sure Malaysian authority and MAS will have final says on which route their going to take. However is the blame on them if Euro and Ukraine authorities still gave signal the routes is relatively save ? Afterall the MAS and Malaysian authority did not have enough information on the ground situation.

My point is, current regime on International civil aviation should be adjusted more after this. Regional and National aviation authorities on each route should beared more responsible on the safety information on their routes. Can not all the decision on the route safety should be bear much of it on each Airliners.

 

[Relboon]

For unbiased people like you say you are, there is a too much biased opinions I see here. Can someone explain to me why does Russia has to "do the right thing" like you say (As I understand, by your idea that mean taking the blame), because everything points to Rebels\Russia (before any kind of investigation has even started), but nobody here even entertains the idea of Ukrain fault ? Why does no one noticed that as soon as the plane went down the Ukraine army started massive attack without any restriction on using any kind of artillery on Lugansk ? Just a rhetorical questions, you are biased, may be you don`t realize it yourself, but the media has built quite a picture of Russia in western people heads.
And before anyone says, yes I'm heavily biased too, I don't pretend.

P.S I will try to post here some information that Feanor misses that from my POV deserves at least a mention.

 

[Ananda]

On the other hand if the rebels were only able to operate Buks because Russia gave them some, Russia is to blame. Giving the rebels that kind of tech is irresponsible and stupid, to put it mildly.

Feanor..but this should be predicted right ? What else the Russian will do, when they already said publicly they have to support and protected ethnic Rusian in Eastern Ukraine. For me, the moment Ukraine already increased air strike to rebel possitions it is just matter of time before they helped the rebels with more sophisticated SAM systems. Well they can not give Air Force to the rebel, so providing them with more sophisticated SAM system is the next thing they can do to keep supporting the rebels and keep pressure to Kiev.

It's naif for West to think otherwise. Well officially they can say for Russia stop arming the rebels, but it will never happen as long as Kiev keep attacking them militarily. Personally based on what info come out (mostly thanks to you), it's more likely I believe the Buk system confiscated from Ukraine's force, however Russia gave technical assistance to make it operational. I believe Russia know very well, that the rebels consists more on loose militia with questionable discipline. However they also perceived (by Russian public at least) as the only forces to protect ethnic Russian in eastern Ukraine, from the Anti Maydan forces from Western Ukraine.

I'm not saying whose to blame on present Ukraine's condition. I do not have much information to make judgments on my own. However for logical steps from Russia on this, well can we expect realistically they will ceased support to the rebels and left their fate to the mercy of Kiev ?

Russia in my opinion will keep supporting the rebels, no matter what West says on this. They will lose much business from Western Euro, Australia and North America, but then they still can find market and business from China, Asia, Africa and Latin America, which will keep doing business with Russia no matter what the West says. Some of them will not provide as lucrative as business with the West, but under current conditions, will do.

With current liquidity problem in the world, many Asian and Latin America economies will gladly welcome Russian capitals that moved from London and New York. Thus if most of Asia, Africa, and Latin America keep doing business with Rusia, will the West also want to issolate many of the fast growing markets in the World ?

Russia seems willing at this moment to pay the price on getting more isolation from Europe and North America (this off course on the conditions EU agree on this, which from I see so far the EU southern members don't put much anthusiast on the prospect). All for the price of Russian ethnic sovereignty and 'safety' in eastern Ukraine.

I'm not put defence for Russia on this, but seems it's the logical course for Russian interest on this moment.

 

[Twain]

two pictures and a video at the link described as damage consistent with SA-11 hit. For some reason I can't get the individual pics and video to post directly here. Sorry.

https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk

more pics here too

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroenakkermans/14701562722/in/set-72157645790319631/

 

[kato]

However is the blame on them if Euro and Ukraine authorities still gave signal the routes is relatively save ?

The German Air Force was flying 500+ soldiers per week plus cargo in daily flights over the Ukraine corridor actually, and has been doing so since the crisis started (... and the ten years before that). Let's say if there had been any even sublime indication of the danger from the Ukrainian government that would have changed rather fast. Like it did for the next flight that was supposed to run through that corridor about three hours after the shoot-down.

 

[wittmanace]

The German Air Force was flying 500+ soldiers per week plus cargo in daily flights over the Ukraine corridor actually, and has been doing so since the crisis started (... and the ten years before that). Let's say if there had been any even sublime indication of the danger from the Ukrainian government that would have changed rather fast. Like it did for the next flight that was supposed to run through that corridor about three hours after the shoot-down.

I am not questioning your statement, but what are you saying? I dont know if it just can be read different ways, or do you mean the people behind the shoot down were able to discriminate between aircraft types?

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Ukrainian troops have begun a frontal offensive towards Severodonetsk, taking the town of Rubezhnoe.

zloy_odessit -
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Силы ÐТО вошли в город Рубежное и ведут наÑтупление на Северодонецк

The offensive also continues around Lugansk, with the taking of Georgievka, 3 kms from Lugansk.

zloy_odessit -

The Lugansk airport remains blocked despite reports that government troops have unblocked it, and the soldiers there are still besieged.

Ð’ ЛуганÑком аÑропорту военные оÑтаютÑÑ Ð·Ð°Ð±Ð»Ð¾ÐºÐ¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ð¼Ð¸, у них 4 погибших более 15 раненых : ÐовоÑти УÐИÐÐ

The 79th airmobile brigade is still fighting, surrounded completely, by rebel forces. It's part of the southern maneuver element.

«Мы держимÑÑ, по нам ÑтрелÑÑŽÑ‚ из РоÑÑии» - николаевÑкие деÑантники уже 5-е Ñутки в кольце боевиков | ÐикВеÑти — ÐовоÑти Ðиколаева

Meanwhile the rebels reinforce their positions near Saur-Mogila, with more troops. The rebel commander is the famous/infamous Motorola, who's btln is being redeployed there. In the video you can see the giant memorial statue in the distance, marking the Saur-Mogila memorial complex.

You can see a rebel BTR-80, and a T-64BV.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - 19.07 Донецк

The rebels report that they've also left the town of Dzerzhinsk due to the government offensive. There seems to have been considerable damage to the town.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - "Центр ДзержинÑка занÑÑ‚ крупными Ñилами противника. Город пал." (Ñ)
Сообщение от опоченца Ð˜Ð³Ð¾Ñ€Ñ Ð‘ÐµÐ·Ð»ÐµÑ€Ð°: Разбита колонна вражеÑкой бронетехники в районе ПопаÑной | РуÑÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð²ÐµÑна

Photos of more Ukrainian paramilitaries not part of the army but headed for the conflict zone.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Стрелок на ÑвÑзи...

The Ukrainian government is declaring another partial mobilization, probably to replace casualties, possibly to rotate out some of the personnel in the conflict zone.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Еще одна мобилизациÑ

The Ukrainian offensive is quite powerful, but also quite desperate. There are a couple of opinions on why. Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, for example, reports that the war is eating 1.5 bln grivnas a month, but the funds left right now are only 520 mlns.

Минфин: Ðа проведение ÐТО на ВоÑтоке необходимо около 1,5 млрд грн в меÑÑц - Экономика - 112.ua

Russian MinDef on the Boeing situation. There is an english translation in the video if you want to watch.

In brief:
1) Boeing deviated from the established air traffic corridor by 14 kms.
2) It took 3 minutes to crash.
3) Ukraine had 3-4 btlns of Buks near the flight path, satellite photos are available.
4) One of the batteries was there before the shootdown but left immediately after.
5une 17 there was a very high activity of Ukrainian military radars.
6) There were 3 civilian planes in the area.
7) At 17:20 an Su-25 was tracked rapidly gaining altitude, toward the Boeing.
8) When the Boeing crashed, an unidentified flying object was in the area (consistent with a military plane).
9) At the time a US missile launch control satellite was over the area, it should have photos too.
10) There is a photo of a Buk on a trailer, in Krasnoarmeysk. One missile is gone form it. When did it last fire, where is it going?
11) MoD denies giving the rebels any Buks, any air defense assets, and any weapons at all.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Минобороны РФ о Ñбитом Боинге

On this link there are some very low res sat-pics from Russia, of Ukrainian Buk positions. Given the quality of materials, the value is very low. But from what I understand they do have better photos, they just published in lower quality.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Хотели Ñнимков? Их еÑÑ‚ÑŒ у менÑ...

 

[LeGrig]

The German Air Force was flying 500+ soldiers per week plus cargo in daily flights over the Ukraine corridor actually, and has been doing so since the crisis started (... and the ten years before that). Let's say if there had been any even sublime indication of the danger from the Ukrainian government that would have changed rather fast. Like it did for the next flight that was supposed to run through that corridor about three hours after the shoot-down.

For several weeks before, transport aircraft (An-30, An-24) and helicopters were downed by anti-aircraft systems being operated by the rebels (aka unauthorized entities). This is NOT PERMITTED within Eurocontrol controlled airspace. Even since the first such incident, this airspace should of been closed for international flights. Also, Ukraine Air Authority should of taken measures and last, but not the least, Ukrainean Air Force should of imposed restrictions. No measure was taken, presumably due to additional costs for the airlines - the outcome was to be foreseen!
On the other hand, which is the level of credibility for a state delivering such systems to illegal groups / rebels / etc. Will it be possible to see the dissemination of such AA systems? Going to sleep will make Europe get its worst nightmaire!

 

[John Fedup]

I am not sure how this is all going to play out other than it will involve minimal response from NATO members other than useless rhetoric. The trillion plus wastage in Iraq and Afghanistan (the latter being absolutely necessary, the former not!) has economically impaired the West.

 

[kato]

This is NOT PERMITTED within Eurocontrol controlled airspace. Even since the first such incident, this airspace should of been closed for international flights.

To directly quote from Eurocontrol's assessment of the Ukraine situation in the Network Operations Portal:

"NM has no legal authority to reject flight plans unless the ATS routes are formally closed by NOTAMs from the competent authority."

Ukraine's NOTAM for the Dnepopetrovsk region only formally restricted air traffic between the ground and flight level 320. The NM - Eurocontrol - doesn't and can't do anything except enforce this NOTAM as written.

 

[2007yellow430]

Update.

Ukrainian troops have begun a frontal offensive towards Severodonetsk, taking the town of Rubezhnoe.

zloy_odessit -
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Силы ÐТО вошли в город Ð*убежное и ведут наÑтупление на Северодонецк

The offensive also continues around Lugansk, with the taking of Georgievka, 3 kms from Lugansk.

zloy_odessit -

The Lugansk airport remains blocked despite reports that government troops have unblocked it, and the soldiers there are still besieged.

Ð’ ЛуганÑком аÑропорту военные оÑтаютÑÑ Ð·Ð°Ð±Ð»Ð¾ÐºÐ¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ð¼Ð¸, у них 4 погибших более 15 раненых : ÐовоÑти УÐИÐÐ

The 79th airmobile brigade is still fighting, surrounded completely, by rebel forces. It's part of the southern maneuver element.

«Мы держимÑÑ, по нам ÑтрелÑÑŽÑ‚ из Ð*оÑÑии» - николаевÑкие деÑантники уже 5-е Ñутки в кольце боевиков | ÐикВеÑти — ÐовоÑти Ðиколаева

Meanwhile the rebels reinforce their positions near Saur-Mogila, with more troops. The rebel commander is the famous/infamous Motorola, who's btln is being redeployed there. In the video you can see the giant memorial statue in the distance, marking the Saur-Mogila memorial complex.

You can see a rebel BTR-80, and a T-64BV.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - 19.07 Донецк

The rebels report that they've also left the town of Dzerzhinsk due to the government offensive. There seems to have been considerable damage to the town.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - "Центр ДзержинÑка занÑÑ‚ крупными Ñилами противника. Город пал." (Ñ)
Сообщение от опоченца Ð˜Ð³Ð¾Ñ€Ñ Ð‘ÐµÐ·Ð»ÐµÑ€Ð°: Ð*азбита колонна вражеÑкой бронетехники в районе ПопаÑной | Ð*уÑÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð²ÐµÑна

Photos of more Ukrainian paramilitaries not part of the army but headed for the conflict zone.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Стрелок на ÑвÑзи...

The Ukrainian government is declaring another partial mobilization, probably to replace casualties, possibly to rotate out some of the personnel in the conflict zone.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Еще одна мобилизациÑ

The Ukrainian offensive is quite powerful, but also quite desperate. There are a couple of opinions on why. Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, for example, reports that the war is eating 1.5 bln grivnas a month, but the funds left right now are only 520 mlns.

Минфин: Ðа проведение ÐТО на ВоÑтоке необходимо около 1,5 млрд грн в меÑÑц - Ð*кономика - 112.ua

Russian MinDef on the Boeing situation. There is an english translation in the video if you want to watch.

In brief:
1) Boeing deviated from the established air traffic corridor by 14 kms.
2) It took 3 minutes to crash.
3) Ukraine had 3-4 btlns of Buks near the flight path, satellite photos are available.
4) One of the batteries was there before the shootdown but left immediately after.
5) On June 17 there was a very high activity of Ukrainian military radars.
6) There were 3 civilian planes inrea.
7) At 17:20 an Su-25 was tracked rapidly gaining altitude, toward the Boeing.
8) When the Boeing crashed, an unidentified flying object was in the area (consistent with a military plane).
9) At the time a US missile launch control satellite was over the area, it should have photos too.
10) There is a photo of a Buk on a trailer, in Krasnoarmeysk. One missile is gone form it. When did it last fire, where is it going?
11) MoD denies giving the rebels any Buks, any air defense assets, and any weapons at all.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Минобороны Ð*Ф о Ñбитом Боинге

On this link there are some very low res sat-pics from Russia, of Ukrainian Buk positions. Given the quality of materials, the value is very low. But from what I understand they do have better photos, they just published in lower quality.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Хотели Ñнимков? Их еÑÑ‚ÑŒ у менÑ...

How do you get the English translation of the video? Couldn't figure it out.

Thanks, Art

 

[Twain]

Feanor: I've seen a few reports that Dbaltseve fell to Ukranian forces today, can you confirm this? Also reports of fighting near Shizne, if this is correct it looks like it could make resupply of Donetsk a bit difficult.

 

[LeGrig]

To directly quote from Eurocontrol's assessment of the Ukraine situation in the Network Operations Portal:

"NM has no legal authority to reject flight plans unless the ATS routes are formally closed by NOTAMs from the competent authority."

Ukraine's NOTAM for the Dnepopetrovsk region only formally restricted air traffic between the ground and flight level 320. The NM - Eurocontrol - doesn't and can't do anything except enforce this NOTAM as written.

It is as above, valid for controlled airspace. I wanted to say (but did not) that starting from the moment aircraft were downed on purpose by outlaws, and Ukraine was obviously not able to keep control, Eurocontrol had to downgrade that airspace. It did so only after the catastrophic crash: "Europe’s air traffic regulator, Eurocontrol, has announced the closure of eastern Ukrainian airspace until further notice after a Malaysian airline crashed in the area..." FL320 is a boundary established by Ukraine... as regulatory for its own sovereign airspace...

 

[kato]

"Europe’s air traffic regulator, Eurocontrol, has announced the closure of eastern Ukrainian airspace until further notice after a Malaysian airline crashed in the area..."

Let's quote the original in full please?

https://www.eurocontrol.int/news/mh-17-ukraine

MH 17 - Ukraine
17 Jul 2014

MH 17 - Ukraine – 17 July 2014

EUROCONTROL has been informed that MH 17 en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur has crashed in the eastern part of Ukraine.



Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those on board.

According to our information, the aircraft was flying at Flight Level 330 (approximately 10,000 metres/33,000 feet) when it disappeared from the radar. This route had been closed by the Ukrainian authorities from ground to flight level 320 but was open at the level at which the aircraft was flying.

Since the crash, the Ukrainian authorities have informed EUROCONTROL of the closure of routes from the ground to unlimited in Eastern Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk Flight Information Region). All flight plans that are filed using these routes are now being rejected by EUROCONTROL. The routes will remain closed until further notice.

The European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell is being activated to coordinate the response to the impact of the airspace closure.

(emphasis mine)

 

[wittmanace]

Let's quote the original in full please?

https://www.eurocontrol.int/news/mh-17-ukraine

(emphasis mine)

Hi Kato, I think you missed my post before, Im not asking about this post. Do you mean that you think the individuals behind the shoot down were able to discriminate between aircraft types? I am just asking as I am unsure about the post I quoted before when I asked this? (bottom of page before this one)

 

[kato]

I am not questioning your statement, but what are you saying?

I'm saying that the security situation in the region was - by other nations, and not just by commercial providers wanting to save fuel - considered safe for overflight above flight level 320 as indicated by Ukrainian authorities.

 

[Ananda]

Let's say if there had been any even sublime indication of the danger from the Ukrainian government that would have changed rather fast. Like it did for the next flight that was supposed to run through that corridor about three hours after the shoot-down.

If so, while several aircraft had been shooted down on that coridor with increasing capabilities and activities of the rebel's SAM also shoowing, should not be that route be provide more risk warnings on the safety for International airliners ?

This is what I mean the practices of International Civil aviation should be adjusted. Like you already point out, Euro Control can only closed the route/corridor after Ukraine's authority informed them. However before that, as regional control, which supposedly have more information on the conditions of that route, should Euro Control at least increased the warning or even take initiative for Airliners to avoid the route ?

Yes they do not have legal rights to closed the route, but as the regional Air traffic control body, in my opinion they should provide more immediate and stressing warning to the Airliners, based on their own Risk Assesment. If the Ukraine's authority as the nation that owned the corridor did not or failed to provide good risk assesment on the safety of a 'conflict' corridor, should the regional's authority that take over or provide second opinion on the safety of a conflict zone corridor ?

This is my point. International Aviation practises should be adjusted so regional authority should take more active roles on providing risk assesment on safety of any International civil aviation routes within their regional control, and not just waiting the National authority information and assesment.