Ukranian Crisis

[gazzzwp]

My guess is that the Russian's won't react at all beyond blaming Ukraine and perhaps helping to repatriate the bodies.

Looking at their behaviour both in SE Ukraine and previously in Crimea, I believe they have figured that if they play innocent and admit nothing they can get away with pretty much anything with little Western response.

I'd place this as a result of the justification used for the Iraq War. Now Western govts will only get actively involved if there is 100% proof. Without this the West won't engage in much more than hot air (sanctions being the limit at this stage). This is especially true considering the state of most budgets.

Admitting to arming the rebels would allow the US to justify arming the Govt forces in retaliation.

Good point. I would just add that some Western nations' reluctance to make a robust response is based on perceived economic loss. In other words they are more than prepared to forget humanitarian principles where dollars are at stake.

I perceive Germany to be like this; after all it's economy is heavily export based and it won't under any circumstances want to damage the long term sales of say luxury cars to Russia.

The other nation is France; I can't believe that they are still selling aircraft carriers to Russia in view of what has occurred. Another good example where bucks matter more than principles. Why have the US not exerted more pressure on them over this?

Britain and Holland may well take a more moral and principled stance in the matter. However if the UK's economy were more export based it may be a different story. I just don't trust world leaders to take the correct stance any more.

 

[STURM]

The bodies have been placed on a refrigerated train and have been brought to an undiclosed location. A pair of Malaysian C-130Hs have been placed on stanby in case they are needed to flyback bodies or for some other reason.

An Australian journalist has gotten hold of a pair of boarding passes which he intends on giving to the next of kin in Australia. What is utterly disgusting are reports that personal belongings from some of the victims appear to have been pilfered.

Meanwhile, there is a report of Igor Girkin allegedly saying that some of the bodies were dead before the plane took off from Schiphol.

"Jet parts resembling the black boxes were discovered at the crash site, said Alexander Borodai, prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, adding that they would be handed over to "international experts if they arriv. Borodai also said bodies which have been removed from the crash site will be kept in refrigerated carriages on a train near the scene until the experts arrive. He said his teams had taken the corpses away from the crash site out of respect for the families and because it is becoming inhumane in these conditions. We couldn't wait any longer because of the heat and also because there are many dogs and wild animals in the zone" - AFP

 

[Twain]

The separatists are admitting to having posession of the black boxes. Apparently they have had them for a couple days now. Where the black boxes are right now is an open question.

Follow

Jason MorrellVerified account
‏@CNNJason
Video of #MH370 #Blackbox was taken 2 days ago by a Reuters crew; say they wanted to vet it before releasing #CNN pic.twitter.com/fUIwGDsSnS

https://twitter.com/CNNJason/status/490818867250597888


Several transcripts of audio released by ukranian intelligence at the link below,

Khodakovsky - I have a request for you. It is not my request. Our friends from high above are very much interested in the fate of the 'black boxes.' I mean people from Moscow.

There are two items -- Khmuryi, Strelok's [sic] head of intelligence, has one. Please, cooperate with the Ministry of Emergency. All that you find must not come into somebody else's hands. Only yours, or Strelkov's people or Khmuryi's, it doesn't matter...

And together with that guy from the Ministry of Emergency, Oleksiy, try to take everything that you can find... so that it doesn't get into somebody else's hands...

All those people that are coming, OSCE and so on....

and here Bezler admits one of the previously released recordings is actually him.

Earlier today we posted a statement from Igor Bezler, a GRU (Russian foreign military intelligence) officer and separatist commander in Gorlovka. He actually admits that the audio from a previous SBU leak where he talks about shooting down the plane was in fact real, but claims it was doctored and he was talking about shooting down a different plane.

Link for both quotes:
Ukraine Liveblog Day 153: Russian-Backed Separatists Move Bodies Of Flight MH17 Victims | The Interpreter

Just a guess, But I would expect lots of new information to hit the news tomorrow since there may be new sanctions announced Tuesday.

 

[Nick underscore]

On the weight of material provided to date and the removal of the black boxes I am afraid this, and their behaviour, does point to separatists and Russian involvement after the event (at a minimum).

Totally agree with this and many points made by others.

Still don't understand why basic respect is not being followed by Russian Govt.. Guilty or not. Totally isolationist, backward thinking IMV and in the long run, there is clearly no real gain. Yes, Crimea is a tangible strategic and symbolic gain, but to not now distance yourself from this situation and to see this opportunity in the face of the obvious backlash in relationships, just borders on the bizarre to say the least.

Others who mentioned saving something out of this situation from a Russian POV, I agree is still the best course, but can't help but feel that moment has passed, especially when considering the consistent rhetoric coming from the Russian administration..

This will take time, but the culprits will be fully determined (evidentially). Executing any sense of justice for the families is just hope, sadly. For now, I just want the CVR and FDR handed over and the bodies given to the families for personal religious rites and for some sort of closure.

Note; the Ukrainian Govt has not helped this situation with the 'mis-information' war created through domestic media and govt announcements throughout this crisis. This has both questioned the initial veracity and lengthed the process to verify facts.

Personally, I can see extensive pressure on the French Govt (including it's own citizens to a degree) w.r.t the 2nd Mistral delivery.. legally there are ways France can remove herself from the 2011 contractual obligation, if required.

 

[STURM]

Several transcripts of audio released by ukranian intelligence at the link below

What I find very fishy is that these individuals are talking about stuff like this knowing that others will be listening or attempting to listen to their communications.

 

[Twain]

What I find very fishy is that these individuals are talking about stuff like this knowing that others will be listening or attempting to listen to their communications.

Yeah I know, I'm not saying anything about the veracity of these latest recordings, but the last few years have shown us that people in important positions seem to keep saying stupid/sensitive things on unsecured communications. That obviously doesn't prove they are real or that they are fake, just that it is possible they are legitimate. The Ukranians (maybe with US help) have released some recordings that have proven to be real in the past, time will tell if these are real.

That and I think it was pointed out earlier in this thread, high tech encrypted communications would have been a dead giveaway to russian involvement.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Britain and Holland may well take a more moral and principled stance in the matter. However if the UK's economy were more export based it may be a different story. I just don't trust world leaders to take the correct stance any more.

To be fair the City of London benefits hugely from Russian money. It would be in our financial interests to treat Russia with kid gloves, but we've been at the front in trying to get a co-ordinated European response.

It seems like Merkel is finally waking up and smelling the coffee. I trust Germany to do the right thing, even if they should have done it a long time ago.

 

[Rimasta]

I don't think they do. Moscow set the tone for them by blaming Ukraine, and they don't seem to be capable of making their own decisions on something so large. I don't think they can or will make any move, other then sticking to the story.

One of the saddest things about this is that the number of dead aboard the plane is much smaller then the civilian casualties from this conflict so far. If things continue the way they are going now, they'll be more dead from air strikes and arty in Lugansk alone. 300 dead on an international flight is front page news. Thousands dead in a major war, nobody really cares.

I think that's because no one on board was involved. Ukraine isn't there country, they had zero affiliation with the conflict. It grabs headlines because now hundreds of 'foreign' civilians have been killed, in a single incident. I agree though, were is the outcry for the women, children, the old who are also suffering in great numbers in the east? I don't see a cease-fire at the end of all this. I see this leading to further escalation. Terrible things happen, when both sides can be said to be true believers of their causes. Both sides are too polarized, as are their supporters, chiefly, the United States and Russia.

 

[Humming Drone]

U.S. believes Russia is behind the missile used to bring down the aircraft:

U.S. Points to Russian Missile Connection in Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Crash - WSJ

My guess is that we could see some developments to this story. Ugly developments.

 

[overlander]

U.S. believes Russia is behind the missile used to bring down the aircraft:

U.S. Points to Russian Missile Connection in Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Crash - WSJ

My guess is that we could see some developments to this story. Ugly developments.

The word of USA , a COUNTRY wich has no problem to líe about mass destrucción weapons in Irak to bomb And kill thousends of persons in that country has no value At all, please wait that the investigación is finished and stop anti russian hysteria until then.

 

[overlander]

To be fair the City of London benefits hugely from Russian money. It would be in our financial interests to treat Russia with kid gloves, but we've been at the front in trying to get a co-ordinated European response.

It seems like Merkel is finally waking up and smelling the coffee. I trust Germany to do the right thing, even if they should have done it a long time ago.

Russians are the dévil, the worst, they are the enemy so you have to consider that russian money is not good toó, don,t worry they will start to withdraw all the money And investments, by 2015 practically all russian money will be out of London.

You can call to Ukrainian investors as Ukraine is so "democratic" And "free" COUNTRY, Ukrainian money is better than Russian, call to them to replace russian investors, no problem.

Not to mention russian tourists , they are thinking they don,t want to spend its bad money in the UK, after all russians they are the worst, call to ukrainian tourists, its money is more democrátic than russian, they will replace russian visitors toó, no problem.

By 2015 is estimated than russian tourism will go down 50 % in Europe, you can be happy, russian money is not good so better for Europe, don,t you think so?

 

[SolarWind]

Totally agree with this and many points made by others.

Still don't understand why basic respect is not being followed by Russian Govt.. Guilty or not. Totally isolationist, backward thinking IMV and in the long run, there is clearly no real gain. Yes, Crimea is a tangible strategic and symbolic gain, but to not now distance yourself from this situation and to see this opportunity in the face of the obvious backlash in relationships, just borders on the bizarre to say the least.

Others who mentioned saving something out of this situation from a Russian POV, I agree is still the best course, but can't help but feel that moment has passed, especially when considering the consistent rhetoric coming from the Russian administration..

This will take time, but the culprits will be fully determined (evidentially). Executing any sense of justice for the families is just hope, sadly. For now, I just want the CVR and FDR handed over and the bodies given to the families for personal religious rites and for some sort of closure.

There is certainly a huge disconnect between Western values and Putin's ruling elite. The latter don't seem to value human life at the least, unless their kin or interests are at stake. I think Russian involvement in this conflict is at large due to their sentiments that Western involvement in Ukraine is encroaching upon Russia's (and the Russian elite's) interests. I believe Russia's ruling elite are dangerous and it would have been best to keep good relations with them. I feel sorry for Russian people enduring this rule and whatever consequences the mismanagement of resources and western sanctions will have on Russian residents' well being.

 

[Nick underscore]

Russians are the dévil, the worst, they are the enemy so you have to consider that russian money is not good toó, don,t worry they will start to withdraw all the money And investments, by 2015 practically all russian money will be out of London...

That's no real problem. I work in the investment banking industry in London and have done for close to 15 years.. Russian investment and thereby the threat of withdrawal is completely overrated. London's financial footing and structure is one of the strongest in the world and is not dependant on this in the slightest.. Most Russian investment is tied to residential prop market and sporting industry purchases (i.e. football). Russia can move its capital elsewhere if it chooses.. It's no real loss to UK GDP.

Countries such as Cyprus, are in a slightly different position as their prop mkt is valued heavily and dependant on foreign investment inflows/ outflows (I.e predom Russian)

The rest of your post is utter dribble and really adds no value to the conversation.

 

[Bonza]

To be fair the City of London benefits hugely from Russian money. It would be in our financial interests to treat Russia with kid gloves, but we've been at the front in trying to get a co-ordinated European response.

Also if the Germans want to continue licking Putin's backside even with hundreds of Europeans dying due to his actions, it speaks volumes about how they value the lives of other people. I wonder how the German Putin-apologist press would have reacted if a Lufthansa plane had been shot down by the Ukrainian military or the US? I guess they would be demanding a total trade embargo.

That said, it seems like Merkel is finally waking up and smelling the coffee. I trust Germany to do the right thing, even if they should have done it a long time ago.

Can you please re-consider the manner in which you address issues of government behaviour and policy so it doesn't come across as an over-generalised shot taken at people of a certain nationality? I understand you were describing the government of Germany, but it reads as though you think all of Germany is united in misanthropy. I do not want to see the value of this thread undermined by miscommunication, nor do I want to waste my time putting out unnecessary fires. Do you understand what I mean?

 

[Bonza]

The word of USA , a COUNTRY wich has no problem to líe about mass destrucción weapons in Irak to bomb And kill thousends of persons in that country has no value At all, please wait that the investigación is finished and stop anti russian hysteria until then.

So now speculation is "anti-Russian hysteria"? You don't think there's a legitimate reason for people to be concerned about what has happened and the degradation in relations between Putin and the West?

And why is this black or white thinking so prevalent now? The discussion is treated as though there are only two possibilities, you're either pro-Russian all the way or you're someone engaging in "hysteria" who hates Russia and is by default a lap dog of the United States. The actual situation is far more complex than these arbitrary, binary arguments. It's not because I hate Russia that I feel the way I do, nor is it due to the word of the United States - I feel the Russian government has some responsibility here because it appears to be the most likely conclusion based on the evidence thus far presented, and the limited range of possibilities under which such a capable, complex weapon could come to be operated by the rebels. I don't want bad things for Russia or the Russian people, but I do believe the situation warrants some kind of explanation, and that an explanation is not forthcoming to me signals a lack of trust between Russia and the West that gives me grave fears about the stability of global politics in the coming years.

You see, this is not hysteria, it's not forced down my throat by the United States, and it's not prompted by any anti-Russian sentiment. I simply want to see governments be accountable in those situations that warrant it, and I want the relationship between Russia and the West to be sufficiently stable that it doesn't prompt some kind of regression to Cold War-era politics. And I'm open to that perspective evolving and changing as more information comes out, the way any thoughtful person should be.

So don't come on here with these simplistic arguments where opinions that disagree with your own are discounted as some kind of American-born myth - you'll find yourself disappointed with the outcomes.

 

[ngatimozart]

The word of USA , a COUNTRY wich has no problem to líe about mass destrucción weapons in Irak to bomb And kill thousends of persons in that country has no value At all, please wait that the investigación is finished and stop anti russian hysteria until then.

Russians are the dévil, the worst, they are the enemy so you have to consider that russian money is not good toó, don,t worry they will start to withdraw all the money And investments, by 2015 practically all russian money will be out of London.

You can call to Ukrainian investors as Ukraine is so "democratic" And "free" COUNTRY, Ukrainian money is better than Russian, call to them to replace russian investors, no problem.

Not to mention russian tourists , they are thinking they don,t want to spend its bad money in the UK, after all russians they are the worst, call to ukrainian tourists, its money is more democrátic than russian, they will replace russian visitors toó, no problem.

By 2015 is estimated than russian tourism will go down 50 % in Europe, you can be happy, russian money is not good so better for Europe, don,t you think so?

Pull your head in mate. There is no need for this rhetoric on here. So I very strongly suggest that you apologise and withdraw before the Mods have you for lunch. They are grumpy and haven't been fed lately. If you have something to say then let it be rational, constructive and something that adds to the conversation rather than the excrement that you posted in these two posts.

 

[Twain]

I have a question for those with knowledge of the BUK system, assuming they were able to locate the BUK launcher that fired the missile, would there be data stored somewhere with details of the incident? I would think they would be able to tell by residues whether or not the launcher in question had fired a missile recently but would there be any other evidence that could potentially be obtained?

 

[gf0012-aust]

I have a question for those with knowledge of the BUK system, assuming they were able to locate the BUK launcher that fired the missile, would there be data stored somewhere with details of the incident? I would think they would be able to tell by residues whether or not the launcher in question had fired a missile recently but would there be any other evidence that could potentially be obtained?

the launch vehicles have apparently been returned across the border - so that investigative option is gone as that launch vehicle will be moved way out of reach

the forensics and crime scene have already been compromised and the whole site is basically useless from a forensic perspective.

even idiot journalists have unwittingly contributed to the corruption of the crime scene

look at recent photos and you can see the local population strolling down the road as though they're going to the fair

the whole area should have been sealed off completely

 

[Twain]

the launch vehicles have apparently been returned across the border - so that investigative option is gone as that launch vehicle will be moved way out of reach

the forensics and crime scene have already been compromised and the whole site is basically useless from a forensic perspective.

even idiot journalists have unwittingly contributed to the corruption of the crime scene

look at recent photos and you can see the local population strolling down the road as though they're going to the fair

the whole area should have been sealed off completely

Yeah, I've seen that. They are literally hauling stuff away from the crash site by the truckload. "Journalists" going through luggage (sneer quotes are intentional)

I know the three launch vehicles and possibly one command vehicle already crossed the border. I'm asking in more of a "what if" scenario, though I don't rule out the possibility that the launchers will be back in the Ukraine in a few weeks if the Europeans don't grow a spine and come down hard on Russia.

 

[Comrade69]

CNN is going to do what it does best until all this gets resolved. Same thing they did during the Georgian war, Blame Russia.

Russia is always a "guilty until proven innocent" by CNN reporting. Will never get why