Ukranian Crisis

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ngatimozart

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Personally i think this is either

a) intentional (read : Criminal) action by Kiev Junta shooting down the plane and attributing it to the russians/rebels , thus winning the propaganda war.

or

b) another vincennes type disaster in that it is a mistaken identity shooting by Ukrainian Air Defense that was jittery with the recent rumored soviet strike aircraft active in ukraine airspace
?
Bullshit, big time. The evidence so far points to Russian separatists who are rebels and have taken up arms against their own country. You have no evidence to support your claims.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Bullshit, big time. The evidence so far points to Russian separatists who are rebels and have taken up arms against their own country. You have no evidence to support your claims.
The body language of the Donetsk spokespeople at the international media interviews has been telling

one of the joys of working in Govt was that I was giving training in interviewing people when Tiananmen Sq happened, so we got attached to what was euphemistically called "The China Task Force" - that included intense training at interviewing others and an intense traaining module involving psychs and human behaviouralists educating us on body language mannerisms to watch for

the Donetsk people have guilt written all over their body language
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The smart thing would have been to admit the mistake, take responsibility, and cooperate fully. It would gain them much more then this non-sense with conspiracy theories, and playing innocent.
they still have a small window to recover some credibility - but that window is rapidly fading

this is no longer 1961 -
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
they still have a small window to recover some credibility - but that window is rapidly fading
I don't think they do. Moscow set the tone for them by blaming Ukraine, and they don't seem to be capable of making their own decisions on something so large. I don't think they can or will make any move, other then sticking to the story.

One of the saddest things about this is that the number of dead aboard the plane is much smaller then the civilian casualties from this conflict so far. If things continue the way they are going now, they'll be more dead from air strikes and arty in Lugansk alone. 300 dead on an international flight is front page news. Thousands dead in a major war, nobody really cares.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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I don't think they do. Moscow set the tone for them by blaming Ukraine, and they don't seem to be capable of making their own decisions on something so large. I don't think they can or will make any move, other then sticking to the story.

One of the saddest things about this is that the number of dead aboard the plane is much smaller then the civilian casualties from this conflict so far. If things continue the way they are going now, they'll be more dead from air strikes and arty in Lugansk alone. 300 dead on an international flight is front page news. Thousands dead in a major war, nobody really cares.
I guess there's a side of me hoping that they'll break their narrative and do the right thing
 

dprijadi

New Member
what bullshit - too bad that independent freelancers have imagery of the Buk hitailing it back

the russians should hang their heads in shame

phuque em
[Mod edit: Text deleted for trolling.] which have everything to gain by smearing russian and rebels ? i dont think so.. there is no good guys here, and certainly not the US who was the instigator of the maidan demonstrations..

all i see is every western mass media blaming the russian including some people here without waiting for the investigation to finish.

i dont buy the 'russian is evil' meme that keep being spouted by the western mass media and i think the massive effort by western media sources trying to push this meme toward the world is showing their one-sidedness (without any chance for the investigator to do their job).
[Mod edit: Credible news reports are showing that the rebels in the region of the crash site are limiting access and their actions are preventing the normal conduct of a crash investigation. At one point, a Reuters correspondent heard a senior rebel tell the OSCE delegation they could not approach the wreckage and would simply be informed in due course of an investigation conducted by the separatists.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, spoke to Putin on Saturday, urging his cooperation. Merkel's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, told Bild am Sonntag newspaper: "Moscow may have a last chance now to show that it really is seriously interested in a solution."

On 19 July 2014, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said: "Swift recovery of the victims’ remains is now an absolute necessity and our highest priority. Anyone who fails to cooperate fully and immediately is leaving themselves open to very serious suspicions. I am shocked by the images of completely disrespectful behaviour at this tragic place. In defiance of all the rules of proper investigation, people have evidently been picking through the personal and recognisable belongings of the victims. This is appalling. And it is undermining efforts to investigate and reconstruct what happened...

...I arrived at the press conference later than planned because I just had an extremely intensive telephone conversation with the Russian president. I told him that the window of opportunity to show the world that he intends to help is closing rapidly. He must take responsibility vis-à-vis the rebels and show the Netherlands and the world that he is doing what is expected of him..." ]

Anthony H. Cordesman of CSIS has a detailed article, dated 18July 2014, titled, "The Downing of the Malaysian Airliner: Avoid Rushing to Judgment". Select quotes from his article to provide context for members are set-out below (but I really recommend that members take the time to read the whole article)...

...Just be aware that these articles exist (regardless of whether you agree or not with the details) and they can help inform the discussion in this thread.
Russian should hang their head in shame ? its the USA and the Kiev puppets that should hang their had in shame [Mod edit: Text deleted for trolling.]

Funny how the media dont have the same feeding frenzy when the vincennes 'accidentally' hit the iraninan airliner.. [Mod edit: There is no equivalence in that the then US President Reagan expressed his "deep regret" on the same day it happened (on July 3, 1988). The "deep regret" was also expressed in a private message dispatched to the government of Iran. It was forwarded to Tehran by the Swiss government, which represents US interests in Iran. Further, the US Government admitted liability and paid out under the Montreal Convention. In February 1996 the US agreed to pay Iran US$61.8 million in compensation for the 248 Iranians killed, plus the cost of the aircraft and legal expenses. It had already paid a further US$40 million to the other countries whose nationals were killed.

If you don't have the basic knowledge to talk about this intelligently, you may want to consider reading up, rather than just a quick resort to trolling?

Further as some might have noted, the Mod Team has already expressed some concern about the quality of posts earlier in the thread, with a strong recommendation that sources are required, when certain contentious points are being made. We note that this recommendation has been ignored by dprijadi. His is now banned a month for trolling.]
 
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gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Sorry , what evidence that russian pr the rebel the one that shot down the plane ? 'manufactured' evidence from Kiev or US Intelligence ? which have everything to gain by smearing russian and rebels ? i dont think so.. there is no good guys here, and certainly not the US who was the instigator of the maidan demonstrations..

all i see is every western mass media blaming the russian including some people here without waiting for the investigation to finish.

i dont buy the 'russian is evil' meme that keep being spouted by the western mass media and i think the massive effort by western media sources trying to push this meme toward the world is showing their one-sidedness (without any chance for the investigator to do their job)..

Russian should hang their head in shame ? its the USA and the Kiev puppets that should hang their had in shame , but US certainly think it is ok to create falseflag anytime it wants, just like the fake Syrian Chemical Attack..

Funny how the media dont have the same feeding frenzy when the vincennes 'accidentally' hit the iraninan airliner..
bugger off - find another forum to troll on
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
For me, the biggest tragedy that after the shoot down of AN-26 the Civil Aviation authority in Ukraine and Euro zone only give (in my opinion) limited warning. The shoot down of that AN-26 shoud ring the bell on civil aviation risk assesment that the rebel have 'potential' more SAM capabilities that just simple Manpads and SHORAD, and they are 'willing' too used it on every airborne target above their heads.

With no air fighter on their own, they will simply put conclusion on their mind, that whatever fly above their heads is enemy combatan. This attitude will be the same whether that para military/separatist group is either HAMAS, ISIS, or any separatist rebels group in the world. It's happen differently simply because the Ukraine's one can get their hand on much longer range SAM systems that SHORAD.

Risk assesment should put this conditions on hand; the historical capabilities of Ukraine's separatist getting their hand on Ukraine's military hardware before, the availability of Ukraine's long range SAM in the area (thus potential being taken over by the rebels), and again most importantly in my mind is their willingness to shoot down anything above their heads, as AN-26 incidents already shown.

As comparisons; when a volcanic eruption happen, the civil aviations ussual practises then will put allert to every airliners to avoid the area in 'any' hight simply due to unpredictable eruption ash cloud movement. This Ukraine conflict should be treated the same simply due to 'unpredictable' behaviors of the combatan Plus availability means to shoot down anything above their heads.

Risk Management assesment should see that. It's tragically happen (as in many situations in the world), Risk assesment sometimes comes late to realisation.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
As comparisons; when a volcanic eruption happen, the civil aviations ussual practises then will put allert to every airliners to avoid the area in 'any' hight simply due to unpredictable eruption ash cloud movement. This Ukraine conflict should be treated the same simply due to 'unpredictable' behaviors of the combatan Plus availability means to shoot down anything above their heads.

Risk Management assesment should see that. It's tragically happen (as in many situations in the world), Risk assesment sometimes comes late to realisation.
unfort they still leave it up to national aviation authorities and the airlines to make that assessment

eg look at the volcanos over europe a few years back - and the volcanic ash issue

there was a lack of consistency across airlines and carriers as they all did their own risk assessments
 

Klaus

New Member
The body language of the Donetsk spokespeople at the international media interviews has been telling

one of the joys of working in Govt was that I was giving training in interviewing people when Tiananmen Sq happened, so we got attached to what was euphemistically called "The China Task Force" - that included intense training at interviewing others and an intense traaining module involving psychs and human behaviouralists educating us on body language mannerisms to watch for

the Donetsk people have guilt written all over their body language
How somebody looks in an interview doesn't prove that somebody else from the same organisation/force committed a crime. No one knows what else influenced the speakers of the "DNR" that day. So let's stick to facts. That the separatists are not willing to give observers unlimited access to the wreckage says more than that. Still it's not proven yet who's the culprit in this case, but if the rebels keep on behaving like this it makes it rather obvious.

The Ukrainian government admits that 14 aircraft and helicopters have been lost in the ongoing campaign so far. The rebels claim they shot down several more.

http://de.ria.ru/security_and_military/20140720/269057899.html
 

gazzzwp

Member
How somebody looks in an interview doesn't prove that somebody else from the same organisation/force committed a crime. No one knows what else influenced the speakers of the "DNR" that day. So let's stick to facts. That the separatists are not willing to give observers unlimited access to the wreckage says more than that. Still it's not proven yet who's the culprit in this case, but if the rebels keep on behaving like this it makes it rather obvious.
I wonder if this event will signal a turning point regarding Russia's involvement with the separatists? Namely that they will not supply weaponry any more or mercenaries into the conflict zone. It would serve to restore Russia's credibility surely if they detached themselves completely from this conflict.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
How somebody looks in an interview doesn't prove that somebody else from the same organisation/force committed a crime. No one knows what else influenced the speakers of the "DNR" that day. So let's stick to facts.
Thanks very much

I will stick to what I know

I suggest you do the same
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
I wonder if this event will signal a turning point regarding Russia's involvement with the separatists? Namely that they will not supply weaponry any more or mercenaries into the conflict zone. It would serve to restore Russia's credibility surely if they detached themselves completely from this conflict.
I would like to think so, but I'm not sure. Putin is a very proud man (has a stick up his backside, if you like), and he won't do anything to acknowledge that he was wrong. Cutting off the rebels completely as a result of this would suggest that he was wrong to egg them on and help arm them. That makes him partly wrong for the death of hundreds of innocents.

Not that I think he would mind hundreds of innocents dying if his goals were met. But he's not the sort of man that can admit he makes bad mistakes.
 

Strannik

Member
Thanks very much

I will stick to what I know

I suggest you do the same
I really do not want to be un-polite . But what one person knows often no facts. You said you know something that obviously forms your preconception. Will it be too much to ask to share, what is this that you think you know apart from hysteric dubious, at the very least, news reports ?
Thanks very much.
 

the road runner

Active Member
I really do not want to be un-polite . But what one person knows often no facts. You said you know something that obviously forms your preconception. Will it be too much to ask to share, what is this that you think you know apart from hysteric dubious, at the very least, news reports ?
Thanks very much.
If anyone knows , i would say GF knows.. he may have info that he can not share with the forum due to op sec reasons and the like. He dose this stuff for a living so i would respect his views.

For any Australians 60 Minutes is doing a story on this now on channel 9
 

alexsa

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Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Attitude is telling in my view. I was at an international meeting last week and spoke to the Dutch head of delegation on Friday to express my regret (while noting a lot of Australians had also died).

He responded that he had been talking to the authorities in the Netherlands and noted all embassies had flags at half mast .......... except Russia. If this is true it shows a fairly brutal approach to this event even if they were not involved.

On the weight of material provided to date and the removal of the black boxes I am afraid this, and their behaviour, does point to separatists and Russian involvement after the event (at a minimum).

I agree the human toll in the Ukraine with its own citizens is a tragedy but wonder at the weaponry in the hands of the separatists. I don't think a political solution is possible unless such support is withdrawn (and there is a lot of give on both sides).

Another sad chapter in a miserable couple of years when you look at Syria, Iraq, Ukraine and Gaza/Israel.
 

gazzzwp

Member
I would like to think so, but I'm not sure. Putin is a very proud man (has a stick up his backside, if you like), and he won't do anything to acknowledge that he was wrong. Cutting off the rebels completely as a result of this would suggest that he was wrong to egg them on and help arm them. That makes him partly wrong for the death of hundreds of innocents.

Not that I think he would mind hundreds of innocents dying if his goals were met. But he's not the sort of man that can admit he makes bad mistakes.
Sure I do believe he is a very thick skinned individual. Didn't he rise to power under the cloud of the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings? Moscow accused the Chechen terrorists however many believe that it was a false flag operation by Moscow to justify an extensive campaign in the region.

He may worry more about the political fallout though. Look at the news media site RT and all they do us criticise the US for it's political and military mistakes. Now for sure Moscow will be seen to be no innocent player in world affairs.

The master chess tactics that is Moscow politics has slipped up at last. I think will hurt Putin a great deal.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I really do not want to be un-polite . But what one person knows often no facts. You said you know something that obviously forms your preconception. Will it be too much to ask to share, what is this that you think you know apart from hysteric dubious, at the very least, news reports ?
Thanks very much.
??? Go back and read what I said - its not mysterious at all

the hysteria is coming from elsewhere.
 

Goknub

Active Member
My guess is that the Russian's won't react at all beyond blaming Ukraine and perhaps helping to repatriate the bodies.

Looking at their behaviour both in SE Ukraine and previously in Crimea, I believe they have figured that if they play innocent and admit nothing they can get away with pretty much anything with little Western response.

I'd place this as a result of the justification used for the Iraq War. Now Western govts will only get actively involved if there is 100% proof. Without this the West won't engage in much more than hot air (sanctions being the limit at this stage). This is especially true considering the state of most budgets.

Admitting to arming the rebels would allow the US to justify arming the Govt forces in retaliation.
 

Twain

Active Member
Well on the one hand they're probably following orders and "leaving the crash site undisturbed".
except they are not leaving the site undisturbed,

OSCE: "Some of the equipment seems to have been moved" from #MH17 site. No clue which rebels control the site. No idea where black boxes are


https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/490544074307690498

On the other hand the OSCE aren't professional investigators in that department, and their presence should limit the rebels ability to tamper with anything.

Thanks for the detailed info. If you get more, please do share.
The OCSE observers are there to observe the entire site and hopefully prevent contamination/tampering withy any evidence. Instead we have mercenaries threatening to kneecap the observers and firing their weapons any time they try to leave the extremely limited area they are allowed to see. Everything they are doing is just going to reinforce world opinion that they are guilty and trying to hide something.

At least some investigators are in Ukraine now, we'll see what happens when they try to access the crash site. Depending on who you listen to among the rebels, they are supposed to be guaranteed open access to the crash site, my guess would be that we will see more of the same, threats and denial of access. The separatists are digging themselves a hole, the only question is how deep will they dig?
 
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