Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

I have not seen a field hit by Grad rockets before, but shouldn't there be a lot more pot holes on the grass? All I can see in the picture with destroyed ukranian armor is the burned out vehicles.

Well to be fair, these are the only photos I've seen so we don't really know what the ground looks like. The Ukrainian side and the rebel side both claim this was done by the rebel Grad MLRS. The government side even claims that they performed an airstrike after, destroying one of the two Grads used in this attack. Whether it's true or not...

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The government offensive encircling Lugansk is continuing. However the attack directly on the city was fought off, and the government troops took significant casualties. Also near the village of Roskoshnoe (Роскошное) a government supply column was destroyed, taking out a truck with shells, and a BTR-80.

The last link is the location of the destroyed column.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ЛуганÑк...
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLXxPvsav8A"]LifeNews публикует видео уничтоженной колонны ВС Украины под ЛуганÑком - YouTube[/nomedia]
РазвÑзка на Лутугино - YouTube
https://www.google.com/maps/place/R...2!3m1!1s0x411fd0ca22cab4f7:0xa5d35059cd3136d0

A T-64BM Bulat was also destroyed near Lugansk, it's not clear whether it's related to the destruction of the column or if it was part of the attack on the city itself.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Из-под ЛуганÑка пишутЪ

Also a government An-26 was shot down near Lugansk, probably delivering supplies to the Lugansk airport. Despite reports from both sides claiming they have full control of the airport it appears that the airport is still held by government troops, and still besieged by the rebels. It's likely the transport was trying to resupply them.

Government sources claim the plane was shot down at an altitude of 6500m, making MANPADS unlikely. They claim it was shot down by Russia. However given that the rebels have captured Buk SAMs, it's possible that they were being used. It's also possible the info is wrong.

Ð’ ЛуганÑкой облаÑти Ñбит Ñамолет Ðн-26 ВВС Украины.14.07.14 - YouTube
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêèå ñåïàðàòèñòû çàÿâèëè î äâóõ ñáèòûõ ñàìîëåòàõ ÂÂÑ, Êèåâ ïîäòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî áûë ñáèò Àí-26 - "âåðîÿòíî, ñ òåððèòîðèè ÐÔ"
ÐТО: ПотерÑна ÑвÑзь Ñ Ñамолетом ÐÐ-26 ВС Украины, выполнÑвшим задачи в рамках ÐТО - ÐÐ»ÑŒÑ Ð±Ð¾ÐµÐ²Ð¸Ðº, Ñамолет, СБУ, Ñепаратизм, терроризм, Украи
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Сбит еще один Ñамолет

Meanwhile a Ukrainian company has come up with plans to use GAZ-66 and GAZ-53 chassis to produce armored cars for government troops. There are considerable questions about whether this is at all practical, given the age and condition of the vehicles.

bmpd -
http://www.autoconsulting.com.ua/pictures/_upload/1402384462QVH8_h.jpg

 

[Rimasta]

I have not seen a field hit by Grad rockets before, but shouldn't there be a lot more pot holes on the grass? All I can see in the picture with destroyed ukranian armor is the burned out vehicles.

It looks as if the primary ammunition types for the BM-21 used by Russia are a mix of either; Fragmentation HE, Armor piercing submunitions, smoke, Anti-vehicle mines, a rocket for attacking underwater objects with a variable depth setting for detonation, and a rocket with a RF jammer. Doesn't seem Russia or its former republics use BM-21 rockets with just high explosives where one would see dozens of craters from point detonation impacts.
Also, by detonating indirect fire over enemy positions, the killing power of a projectile is greatly increased than if it merely blew up once it hit something. I've heard of a 155mm artillery round that detonated above ground sending a piece of sharpnel straight through the roof of a reinforced log bunker.
Most likely, they were AP submunitions, judging from the wide dispersal of destroyed vehicles and that heavier vehicles like a T-64 that were totally destroyed. Some call such barrages steel rain.

 

[Feanor]

Just a thought, the rebels want Russia to come in on their side obviously, so how do we know for certain that stray indirect fire that lands in Russia, is actually from the Ukrainian military? If I were a rebel, wouldn't I benefit from firing into Russia and provoking a Russian response against the Ukraine? Has this possibility been discussed? Seems like a great way to bring the Russians into the fray, and how would Russia know 'who' fired the rounds? Both sides have artillery, either tubed or rocket.

I've thought about this a little longer and have come up with the following. Some of the shells falling on Russia are near border checkpoints, or border villages. Russian border checkpoints are usually down the road from Ukrainian border checkpoints, around which there is a lot of heavy fighting. It's quite believable that mortars or arty overshoot rebel-held checkpoints, hitting the Russian side of the border. On the other hand there have been a couple of incidents where the shells landed on nothing near a border checkpoint. In those cases I have to wonder.

There's also a few other things I wanted to write about here. Note: the following is my opinion, my comprehension, of events that took place. Actual information is incomplete, contradictory, unverified and unverifiable in principle. I'm giving you what I've managed to figure out for myself.

On the rebel retreat from Slavyansk.

I think Strelkov's claims about the diversionary attack are a lie. I think there were multiple rebel columns. One of them ran into government troops unexpectedly and was wiped out. Another one took serious damage from artillery/air but ultimately escaped. The rest (smaller ones) seem to have left with relatively few difficulties. Many of the smaller roads were not even being watched by the government forces. Some of the rebel forces left later then the main body, and still left relatively unmolested. Ukrainian recon was apparently good enough to figure out that the rebels were going to break out and even guess one of the routes, but not good enough to get all of it right. The rebels did leave in a hurry, leaving behind large stores of heavy munitions.

On the airport battle in Donetsk.

The attack on the airport, after it was seized by government troops, was carried out by rebel btln Vostok. The btln was led by Khodokovskiy, an ex-SBU officer. The rebels were told by the btln leadership that no resistance was expected, the troops inside intended to surrender without a fight. They did not bring their MANPADS or AAA with them. However they met stiff resistance inside, were hit with airstrikes from Mi-24 gunships, and ultimately ended up pinned inside a building. They decided to break out using two trucks, firing outboard as they raced out of the airport. They got out successully, but when they approached the city (still firing haphazardly) they were mistaken for government troops by other rebel forces. Both trucks were hit, killing the majority of the rebel fighters inside. Photos of this were published and I posted them here, with the rebel leadership originally claiming it was a government airstrike. Essentially the failed rebel attack on the airport was an example of sheer stupidity.

On rebel leadership.

With the escape of Strelkov out of Donetsk things changed in the power balance. He was nominally Minister of Defense for the rebels. He has now effectively taken on the role of commanding general. However there was a considerable unwillingness by Khodakovskiy to take orders from Strelkov. After some brief fighting, Khodakovskiy fled, and btln Vostok is now under Strelkov's command. This was followed by a takeover of the MVD in Donetsk by the rebels. The conflict between Vostok leadership and Strelkov is indicative of his relationships with other rebel leaders. Bezler ("Bes") for example still takes a different approach, and doesn't seem to be taking too many orders from rebel leaders in Donetsk. That having been said there have been some centrally directed moves by the rebels, since Strelkov took over, including the encircling attack at Saur-Mogila, and the fortification of Snezhnoe. So he seems to have more control then previous rebel leadership in Donetsk.

On use of government ordinance.

The Ukrainian government troops seem to be using artillery and heavy weapons fairly ineffectively. They shelled Slavyansk for weeks, destroying buildings and killing bystanders, not because they want to actively terrorize the population but because they don't have the recon or competence to use it otherwise. This has been a consistent pattern in Slavyansk, and seems to be recurring at Lugansk. They are somewhat short on munitions, not because there aren't enough munitions in general, but because their supply chains are bad, and do get hit by rebel attacks.

 

[Twain]

Interesting read, an interview with one of the rebels. He;s claiming the attack on the truck full of wounded fleeing the airport was friendly fire.

"On television they said something like that the militias were transporting unarmed wounded under the sign of the red cross and Ukrainian forces fired on them. At that point, I still didn't know we'd been attacked by our own forces. I was sure it was the National Guard. Sometime in the morning of the 27th, two guys from the cover group that remained at the airport woke me up. They told me that it was friendly fire."

I Was a Separatist Fighter in Ukraine - Mumin Shakirov - The Atlantic

 

[dprijadi]

Feanor

Any info on the rumors about the use of american made helicopters in ukraine army ? UH-1 choppers..

 

[Feanor]

Feanor

Any info on the rumors about the use of american made helicopters in ukraine army ? UH-1 choppers..

So far just rumors. If I get concrete info, I'll post it here. Though you can consider that the quite durable and heavily armored Mi-24s are not faring well in this conflict. I don't think Hueys will do any better in the hands of Ukrainian pilots and Ukrainian mechanics, in this conflict.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The studio of channel 112 Ukraine, a Ukrainian TV channel, got a phone call from a Ukrainian soldier in the southern maneuver element. He claims that their unit is being wiped out, they have a handful of vehicles left, and out of his company of 90 men, 35 remain. He also claims they're taking fire from the neutral ground between the Russian and Ukrainian borders, which would account for occasional overshoots by Ukrainian indirect fire.

Personal comment: this is in principle consistent with the rebel counter-attack at Saur-Mogila, which almost completely cut off the southern maneuver element from the Ukrainian lines, but I have to wonder. If the rebels are seriously surrounding and destroying what was a group of several thousand troops with lots of armor, this is a whole new level. Prior to this they could only put up stiff resistance in the defense or conduct the occasional raid.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - "ÐÐ°Ñ Ð¾ÑталоÑÑŒ мало - мы да наша боль..." (Ñ)

According to unofficial reports from Ukrainian service members, a battalion tactical group (2nd Btln, 72nd Mech Bde) is being destroyed by rebels, as part of the southern maneuver element. This is far more believable then the original picture painted, which seemed to show that the entire southern group is besieged.

My comments: Even the defeat of a mech-btln is a big step forward for the rebels, and certainly this brings the Ukrainian encirclement attempt to a screeching halt. If (and it's a big "if") the rebels can hold Saur-Mogila, and if they can hold Lugansk, they could begin to turn the tide. The kinds of casualties the government forces are taking right now are not easily replaceable. Even if they continue to scour their Soviet-era stockpiles for usable replacements, and even if they continue to mobilize other personnel, this is a serious problem. It also means that the rebels have gained the ability to act on the operational level (something that prior to this was markedly absent) and that this is turning into a classical war rather then a counter-insurgency, or a fight between small groups of para-militaries.

I think this makes official Russian involvement less likely, but is a clear sign that unofficially Russia is backing the rebels quite a bit.

зри в корень - Изварино: котел замкнулÑÑ, внутри - уничтожаютÑÑ Ð¾Ñтатки украинÑкой БТГ 72 бригады

There is a large body of material here, mainly videos, about the government forces being encircled by the rebels. I have not had time to watch or evaluate them. I'll try to get to it tomorrow, or thursday, and let you know then if there's anything important. Alternatively feel free to watch them yourselves.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Итак, объект "ЛурдеÑ" Ñнова ÑтановитÑÑ Ð´Ð¾Ð±Ñ€Ñ‹Ð¼ ÑоÑедом Гуантанамо...

It appears that, I re-iterate APPEARS, that the Ukrainian encircling move around Lugansk was aimed at un-blocking the airport, not surrounding the city, and it has been aborted.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Стрелок на ÑвÑзи...

A rebel armored column, with T-64BV tanks, 3 SP howitzers (2S1), and some BTRs.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2Y_jjAxREs"]Енакиево: колонна ополченцев идёт на помощь Донецку 15.07.2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

Another 2S1 was captured by rebels near Lugansk, and can be seen in this video.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnZp2_eWJ1U"]ЛÐР. ЛуганÑк. Подкрепление в виде "Гвоздики" / LPR. Lugansk - YouTube[/nomedia]

More rebel forces.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Юго-ВоÑток Украины: война без конца...

Another photo of the same T-64BM Bulat, that the rebels destroyed, from a different angle.

http://i.imgur.com/v8CkbSH.jpg

These are additional photos of the destruction wreaked on the Ukrainian army camp near Zelenopol'ye by rebel Grad MLRS. It looks like 1 or 2 T-64s have been destroyed, ~10 trucks, 1 or 2 ZU-23-2s, 2 BTR-80s, and a BREM-1 armored recovery vehicle. Casualties are being reported as 19 dead 93 wounded, but there are rumored eyewitness accounts stating that 3 trucks full of corpses were removed, and numbers were claimed as high as 100 dead. Given the scale of the destruction it's possible, but just that. Possible.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ЗеленопольÑкий ад...
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð*азгромленный лагерь под Зеленопольем

Ukrainian military in Donbass.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - UA forces in Donbass...

Ukrainian air force has halted flights near the Russian border, after the An-26 shoot-down.

УкраинÑкие воздушные Ñилы приоÑтановили полеты вблизи границ Ñ Ð*оÑÑийÑкой Федерацией

Supplies brought by Russian volunteers to the rebels.

ivanoctober:

Russian volunteers leaving Samara to go to Donetsk. In broad daylight, with flags, and a ceremony.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² Самаре, отправлÑли добровольцев на ДонбаÑÑ

Russian military moving along the M-4 highway, in Russia.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - БМ-21 "Град" на траÑÑе Ðœ-4

An improvised armored truck, Ural-4320, for the Ukrainian military.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - КуÑтарное бронирование

Battle damage after a Ukrainian airstrike in Snezhnoe. They may have intended to hit rebel convoys, but have mostly managed to destroy civilian buildings and infrastructure.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Два жилых дома и здание налоговой поÑтрадали в результате авиаудара по Снежному
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñåïàðàòèñòû ñíîâà ñîîáùàþò îá óäàðàõ óêðàèíñêîé àâèàöèè ïî ãîðîäó Ñíåæíîå

Collateral damage in Lugansk has 17 civilians dead, 73 wounded, over a couple of days.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ЛуганÑк: повÑедневноÑÑ‚ÑŒ войны

Some Russian sources ran a story about the death of two VDV contract soldiers from accidental Ukrainian shells, but the story was a fake.

Ð’ ВДВ опровергли информацию о гибели двух деÑантников у границы Ñ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ð¾Ð¹

Repairs and overhauls of Ukrainian vehicles at the Zhitomir armored repair plant.

ЖитомирÑкий бронетанковый показал, как воÑÑтанавливает военную технику. Фото | УКÐ*ИÐФОÐ*Ðœ

An MChS special flight has brought 69 Ukrainian refugees from Rostov region to Murmansk for semi-permanent housing. It appears that they were offered work of some sort, and are mostly young people between ages of 25-35, many with children. They were chosen from the population of temporary housing camps in Rostov region.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñïåöáîðò Ì×Ñ äîñòàâèë èç Ðîñòîâñêîé îáëàñòè â Ìóðìàíñê 69 áåæåíöåâ ñ Óêðàèíû

The OSCE says the rebels have sabotaged attempts to begin talks.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÁÑÅ îáúÿâèëà î ñðûâå âèäåîêîíôåðåíöèè ñ ïðåäñòàâèòåëÿìè ÄÍÐ è ËÍÐ

 

[dprijadi]

personal comment : why it seems that russia coverty help the rebels but never to the point that the rebel will overwhelm the ukrainian junta forces ? it's feels like the russians just putting enough support to prolong this without both side getting an upperhand..

just curious did anyone feel the same ?

 

[Strannik]

personal comment : why it seems that russia coverty help the rebels but never to the point that the rebel will overwhelm the ukrainian junta forces ? it's feels like the russians just putting enough support to prolong this without both side getting an upperhand..

just curious did anyone feel the same ?

Personally I do not see this pattern. Instead I see how rebel forces started very un-organised and weak and painfully slowly go from strength to strength. However in last week or two rebels suddenly appear to grow great deal in terms of available recourses and organizational capabilities. If Russia is behind this growth, then it looks like certain decisions were made fairly recently to unambiguously support them.

 

[stojo]

personal comment : why it seems that russia coverty help the rebels but never to the point that the rebel will overwhelm the ukrainian junta forces ? it's feels like the russians just putting enough support to prolong this without both side getting an upperhand..

just curious did anyone feel the same ?

I think you are not correct. The fact that "junta" is not overthrown, does not have anything to do with the lack of support of RF, it has to do with rebel strength, who are confined to certain parts of eastern Ukraine.

Russia does not want more of the Ukrainian territory. I think Putin would be quite satisfied if some federalization agreement is reached, by which RF will have its say in internal maters of Ukraine, via Russian held regions without even seceding.

 

[Feanor]

Personally I do not see this pattern. Instead I see how rebel forces started very un-organised and weak and painfully slowly go from strength to strength. However in last week or two rebels suddenly appear to grow great deal in terms of available recourses and organizational capabilities. If Russia is behind this growth, then it looks like certain decisions were made fairly recently to unambiguously support them.

This is my impression too, except instead of the last week or two I'd say it started ~3 weeks ago. That's when the Ukrainian offensive was in full swing, and suddenly began to lose momentum. Since then it seems to have halted completely, and the rebels have begun counter-attacking.

Russia does not want more of the Ukrainian territory. I think Putin would be quite satisfied if some federalization agreement is reached, by which RF will have its say in internal maters of Ukraine, via Russian held regions without even seceding.

I think that this is no longer on the table. I think at this point the rebels have no interest in negotiating. Their recent refusal to participate in OSCE sponsored talks only reinforces this.

 

[stojo]

This is my impression too, except instead of the last week or two I'd say it started ~3 weeks ago. That's when the Ukrainian offensive was in full swing, and suddenly began to lose momentum. Since then it seems to have halted completely, and the rebels have begun counter-attacking.



I think that this is no longer on the table. I think at this point the rebels have no interest in negotiating. Their recent refusal to participate in OSCE sponsored talks only reinforces this.

That is true, as far as rebels are concerned. However, in my opinion, it is USA, EU and Russia who will draw the final shots, regardless of the opinion of the rebels.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Rebels have destroyed a comm tower in the Donetsk airport.

Ð’ Донецком аÑропорту ополченцы подорвали вышку ÑвÑзи, - СМИ

The 72nd Mech Bde, and 24th Airmobile Bde have retreated from their positions near the border. One of the wounded soldiers said that they were cut off from supplies for days.

Бойцы украинÑкой 72-й мотоÑтрелковой бригады и 24-й воздушно-деÑантной бригады отÑтупили

Phone conversations with soldiers from the 79th, 72nd Mech Bdes, and 24th Airmobile, reveal that the units are in a catastrophic state, taking large casualties running out of supplies fast.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Бои на границе

Rebels, still holding Saur-Mogila, have continued their offensive towards Marinovka, and seem to have taken it.

Силы Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð°Ð»Ð¸ маÑÑированное наÑтупление

However government troops are still trying to retake Saur-Mogila, and have been bombing it non-stop. There is a report of the government planes using PGMs.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Саур-Могила и не только...

An Su-25 over Saur-Mogila (or two) was hit by rebel MANPADS, and made a forced landing at the Mirogorod airport.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êèåâ ñîîáùèë îá îäíîì ïîäáèòîì øòóðìîâèêå Ñó-25, õîòÿ ñåïàðàòèñòû ãîâîðèëè î äâóõ óíè÷òîæåííûõ ñàìîëåòàõ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Подбит Су-25 ВСУ

Government soldiers shot down a rebel UAV, that looks like a Russian Orlan-10.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=222070&d=1405496000
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=222071&d=1405496116

Rebel armor, possibly captured, being presented to it's future users.

http://img1.1tv.ru/imgsize640x360/PR20140716182249.JPG
http://img1.1tv.ru/imgsize640x360/PR20140716182253.JPG
http://img1.1tv.ru/imgsize640x360/PR20140716182246.JPG
http://img1.1tv.ru/imgsize640x360/PR20140716182243.JPG
http://img1.1tv.ru/imgsize640x360/PR20140716182241.JPG

Captured and destroyed National Guard equipment. They are from Sverdlovsk, in Lugansk region, meaning they were part of maneuver element south.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=222135&d=1405540397
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=222136&d=1405540426
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=222137&d=1405540456

Government D-30 howitzer firing near Lugansk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Гаубица Д-30 под ЛуганÑком

3 videos of a government troop column south-east of Donetsk.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Бои под Саур-Могилой идут Ñвирепейшие...

According to an interview with Bezler (Bes), Khodakovskiy is still around, and still part of the rebel command. This contradicts earlier reports that he fled after a brief power struggle.

Bezler himself too has a Crimean past, where he commanded a company of Crimean militia. He also served in the Russian and Soviet militaries, but details are absent.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Юго-ВоÑток Украины: война без конца...

Ukraine has begun upgrading their Grad MLRS to the Bastion-1 standard, which involves transferring them to a new chassis from KrAZ.

Украина приÑтупила к модернизации залповых ÑиÑтем “Град†до ÑƒÑ€Ð¾Ð²Ð½Ñ â€œÐ‘Ð°Ñтион-01″

Interceptor pattern flaks and sapi plates are arriving in Ukraine from the US, 2000 of them.

Ðа Украине провели иÑÐ¿Ñ‹Ñ‚Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ñтавленных из СШРбронежилетов “INTERCEPTORâ€

Photos of the AN-26 shot down earlier.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Ukraine Air force Antonov An-26 "19 Blue" shot down 14 july...

78 armored vehicle at the Zhitomir armored repair plant have been rendered inoperable because some of the components were stolen.

Ðа "ЖитомирÑком бронетанковом заводе" выведено из ÑÑ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ñ 78 боевых машин

At the Shepetev repair plant in Khmel'nitskaya oblast', Smerch and Uragan MLRS are being repaired. Some have already been sent east.

Ðа воÑток Украины отправлены воÑÑтановление ÑиÑтемы залпового Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ñ "Смерч" и "Ураган"

Russian aviation building plants have stepped up their practice of poaching qualified workers from the ex-Soviet Republics, due to the ian conflict. Many have requested additional quota numbers from the FMS to allow them to hire more Ukrainians, as more become available. They have noted significant numbers of specialists from Lugansk region, and Donbass.

bmpd -

16 wounded Ukrainian soldiers and border guards have been delivered across the border to a hospital in Russia, because apparently they were cut off from friendly lines.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - 16 раненых украинÑких Ñиловиков доÑтавлены через границу в РоÑÑию...

But a female Ukrainian air force navigator has been brought into Russia, apparently against her will. She is planned to be put on trial.

On the one hand this is only logical, the Russian Procuracy has opened cases against Ukrainian personnel whom they consider to be guilty of human rights violations in the conflict zone. On the other hand, I did not for a second think that they intended to actually try anyone.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêàÿ ëåò÷èöà Ñàâ÷åíêî ðàññêàçàëà êîíñóëó î åå íåçàêîííîì âûâîçå ñ òåððèòîðèè Óêðàèíû ñ ìåøêîì íà ãîëîâå è â íàðó÷íèêàõ

Rebels claim that Right Sector is busy burning unidentified corpses, at a trash burning facility, to help hide government casualties.

ivanoctober: «

 

[Feanor]

That is true, as far as rebels are concerned. However, in my opinion, it is USA, EU and Russia who will draw the final shots, regardless of the opinion of the rebels.

Maybe not. If the rebels are winning decisively, they can choose to ignore instructions. In principle Russia could cut support but practically speaking I'm not sure they would be willing to take that step given what the alternative is. Also if the rebels are winning, they could get to the point where Russian support is not necessary, particularly if they retake Artemovsk and open the storage facilities there.

 

[dprijadi]

Not that im a military expert or something like that , but isnt the position of Ukrainian Junta forces in the southern border was kinda like very dangerous ? its like a finger in a vise waiting to be closed with no escape corridor..

 

[Twain]

several videos of grad launches here, purportedly initiated from russian territory

Ukraine Liveblog Day 149: Russian Tanks and Artillery Reach Donetsk | The Interpreter

 

[Feanor]

Not that im a military expert or something like that , but isnt the position of Ukrainian Junta forces in the southern border was kinda like very dangerous ? its like a finger in a vise waiting to be closed with no escape corridor..

That's more or less what just happened. Saur-Mogila is a big hill at a narrow point in that finger, and the rebels just took it. They also took Marinovka, which is the small town right next to the border.

several videos of grad launches here, purportedly initiated from russian territory

Ukraine Liveblog Day 149: Russian Tanks and Artillery Reach Donetsk | The Interpreter

Yep. It seems (seems) that some of the Grad MLRS were firing from inside Russia and were spotted by locals. I'm going to try to get confirmation. It's supposed to be near Gukovo, a small town, posted by a guy named Дмитрий Тлюстангелов. However the original video has been deleted.

Commentators are saying, that based on where they are in relation to the power lines, they should be on neutral ground, just outside the Russian border. I honestly don't know the situation well enough to confirm or deny this, but it's certainly likely that the rebels would do something like that. Fire from the neutral ground has been reported before. And it doesn't look good for Russia either. It's pretty obvious which direction these vehicles came from.

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/868855.html

 

[Twain]

That's more or less what just happened. Saur-Mogila is a big hill at a narrow point in that finger, and the rebels just took it. They also took Marinovka, which is the small town right next to the border.



Yep. It seems (seems) that some of the Grad MLRS were firing from inside Russia and were spotted by locals. I'm going to try to get confirmation. It's supposed to be near Gukovo, a small town, posted by a guy named Дмитрий Тлюстангелов. However the original video has been deleted.

Commentators are saying, that based on where they are in relation to the power lines, they should be on neutral ground, just outside the Russian border. I honestly don't know the situation well enough to confirm or deny this, but it's certainly likely that the rebels would do something like that. Fire from the neutral ground has been reported before. And it doesn't look good for Russia either. It's pretty obvious which direction these vehicles came from.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ñ Ð³Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ†Ñ‹ долбит ГРÐД

Looks like the video is back up now. I think this is pretty credible, The story got picked up by ForeignPolicy too and they are pretty cautious about what they publish.

Russia Is Firing Missiles at Ukraine

 

[stojo]

Maybe not. If the rebels are winning decisively, they can choose to ignore instructions. In principle Russia could cut support but practically speaking I'm not sure they would be willing to take that step given what the alternative is. Also if the rebels are winning, they could get to the point where Russian support is not necessary, particularly if they retake Artemovsk and open the storage facilities there.

In the short run, yes - but in the long run no. It is inconceivable that a small surrounded region can fend of Ukraine, its western allies and Russia, all in the same time.