War Against ISIS

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Iraq, as we have known it, is probably gone now. ISIL appears to have expanded the Syrian battlespace into Iraq in a contiguous way. A couple of observations then. It seems unlikely that ISIL will be "defeated" directly in the Syria-Iraq sphere anytime soon without significant US military involvement. However, it might be more useful to just contain it. If the US directly attacks ISIL in Iraq (air strikes, SpecOps, etc) will it not be pressured to extend those efforts into Syria as well? (Not to help sad --- ISIL is fighting against most of the other rebels too, it seems.)

But might the US encourage Turkey to work with the Kurds who have seized the oil facilities in the north from ISIL, plus encourage what remains of the Shiite security forces and governance in the south, to just lock up ISIL where they are now? Perhaps after a while the landlocked and isolated ISIL fighters will begin to feed on themselves.
I favour the US & any other foreign nation staying out of Iraq and let the locals sort it out themselves. The way I see it any foreign interventions, especially US and / or NATO and / or US led Coalition is just going to exacerbate an already bad situation in that it will inflame the situation and prevent any long-term eventual solution to the problem. The only practicallong term ssolution I see is that Iraq as we know it will disappear into the dust of history and two possibly three nation states will replace it.

I think Turkey needs to accept that it has to change it's policy regarding the Kurds and that a Kurdistan with contiguous borders is now quite a probability. Speaking of which, the TV news here has shown some clips of the Kurdish Army in action and I was quite impressed with their discipline, especially their fire discipline. They looked like a professional army.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
IA couple of observations then. It seems unlikely that ISIL will be "defeated" directly in the Syria-Iraq sphere anytime soon without significant US military involvement.
It will take a lot more than U.S. military involvement. The solution can never me achieved solely or largely by military means; if it could Iraq and Afghanistan would long have been at peace.

I favour the US & any other foreign nation staying out of Iraq and let the locals sort it out themselves.
Unfortunately this is never going to happen. Countries like Saudi and other Gulf Sunni states will continue to meddle in Iraq and Syria as it weakens Iran and is part of the long standing Cold War or schism between the Shiites and Sunnis. As for Turkey changing its policy with the Kurds; this is a country which still denies it was responsible for the death of countless Armenians. The West and regional countries might also object to a new Turkish policy over the Kurds as this might open up a pandora's box and create more problems.

The chickens have come home to roost: decades of Western interference in the region, including the creation of artificial borders [in which the locals off course were not consulted] and the propping up of leaders who were never elected; and decades of flawed decisions and policies by the West and the Arabs have led to the mess that is now the Middle East. The U.S. keeps saying that Maliki has to do more [which is fine] but what about the role Saudi Arabia and others play? Has the U.S. publicly chastised Saudi Arabia?

The biggest irony and hyprocisy for me is that certain countries were hoping for certain groups to overthrow Assad but are hoping that these same groups don't create trouble elsewhere. We keep hearing of Assad not being elected and not respecting human rights but then that also applies to most countries in the region; some who are off course best chums with the West. To think that only a few years ago Assad was a guest at Bastille Day - alongside a beaming Sakorzy and Mubarak [he was a mate and ally then] - and his country was a 'rendition' destination for terrorists, militants and extremists.

Iraq Crisis: If history and oil teach us anything, it's that the collapse of Iraq shouldn't come as surprise - Comment - Voices - The Independent

[nomedia]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=engI-XOUcKo[/nomedia]
 
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surpreme

Member
From all the reports I'm receiving they caught the Iraqi Army off guard with help of some units in the Iraqi Army the ISIL was able to cause chaos in the Iraqi Army. Things appears to be bad right now but Iraqi Special Forces will be the one to save the day. As we speak they are conducting major air assaults. Now you have a Iranian General planning defense of Badhdad. No one know if Iranian Quds force are on the ground. The Quds force are a capable force that will fight to the end when come to holy sites. If the ISIL hit Badhdad this where things will change and hell will break loose. I would like see how the Quds forces perform in battle.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It will take a lot more than U.S. military involvement. The solution can never me achieved solely or largely by military means; if it could Iraq and Afghanistan would long have been at peace.



Unfortunately this is never going to happen. Countries like Saudi and other Gulf Sunni states will continue to meddle in Iraq and Syria as it weakens Iran and is part of the long standing Cold War or schism between the Shiites and Sunnis. As for Turkey changing its policy with the Kurds; this is a country which still denies it was responsible for the death of countless Armenians. The West and regional countries might also object to a new Turkish policy over the Kurds as this might open up a pandora's box and create more problems.

The chickens have come home to roost: decades of Western interference in the region, including the creation of artificial borders [in which the locals off course were not consulted] and the propping up of leaders who were never elected; and decades of flawed decisions and policies by the West and the Arabs have led to the mess that is now the Middle East. The U.S. keeps saying that Maliki has to do more [which is fine] but what about the role Saudi Arabia and others play? Has the U.S. publicly chastised Saudi Arabia?

The biggest irony and hyprocisy for me is that certain countries were hoping for certain groups to overthrow Assad but are hoping that these same groups don't create trouble elsewhere. We keep hearing of Assad not being elected and not respecting human rights but then that also applies to most countries in the region; some who are off course best chums with the West. To think that only a few years ago Assad was a guest at Bastille Day - alongside a beaming Sakorzy and Mubarak [he was a mate and ally then] - and his country was a 'rendition' destination for terrorists, militants and extremists.

Iraq Crisis: If history and oil teach us anything, it's that the collapse of Iraq shouldn't come as surprise - Comment - Voices - The Independent

CrossTalk: Iraqi Freedom 2.0 - YouTube
Thanks Sturm. I was being sufficient broad in my remark whilst being very well aware of UK, French and US history within the MEA from 1918 onwards. With regard to Saudi and the GCC it is not in the interests of certain western states to poke fingers and sticks in that direction just as they don't at another ME country which does need to pull ts head in. I'd forgotten about Armenian genocide and the earlier Greek population problems after WW1.

I am in favour of a separate Kurdish nation state arising from the ashes and that the Kurds take Turkey to the International Court of Justice over past injustices against the Kurdish people. I will however stick to my original premise that everyone should butt out and let this situation sort itself out, however sickening it maybe in the sorting. It would be the quickest solution at any rate.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
An independent Kurdish state carved out of Turkey will also have to take into account that there are also Kurds in Syria, Iraq and Iran. What if the Kurds living in Syria, Iraq and Iran decide they want something similar? Like I mentioned earlier, IMO this might open a pandora's box leading to serious long term geo-political consequences. The Kurds will also be very wary as they have - at some point or another - been courted and then played out by almost everyone. Off topic but in his book, Raful Eitan writes about the time he spent with the Irqi Kurds as an advisor.

When the civil war first started in Syria and when people were predicting Assad's fall; there was also talk of Syria being split; with the Alawites retreating to their mountains to form their own state or enclave. Back to Iraq, its appears the worse is over for the time being. ISIS has captured more ground but looks like they are nowhere near to capturing Baghdad. Given the size of Baghdad and the large number of Shiites there I was surprised that they even considered going near Baghdad. Maliki has said that he welcomes Syrian strikes on border crossings which off course is hardly surprising.

http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/syrian-moderates-arent-so-moderate-in-iraq-9569548.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Iraq, as we have known it, is probably gone now. ISIL appears to have expanded the Syrian battlespace into Iraq in a contiguous way. A couple of observations then. It seems unlikely that ISIL will be "defeated" directly in the Syria-Iraq sphere anytime soon without significant US military involvement. However, it might be more useful to just contain it. If the US directly attacks ISIL in Iraq (air strikes, SpecOps, etc) will it not be pressured to extend those efforts into Syria as well? (Not to help Assad --- ISIL is fighting against most of the other rebels too, it seems.)
As it stands, Assad is rolling back the rebels out of Syria. Which means that the rebels might be defeated decisively inside Syria, and pushed back into Iraq. Given that Syria has a close relationships with Iran, and Iran has ties to the current Iraq government, this gives us a potential coalition of Iran, Iraq, and Syria, against the rebels. With Russian and US support, the rebels could be defeated by a combination of the above 3.

I will however stick to my original premise that everyone should butt out and let this situation sort itself out, however sickening it maybe in the sorting. It would be the quickest solution at any rate.
That's just not possible though.

EDIT: An Mi-35M was allegedly just shot down in Iraq. This would be the first combat loss of an Mi-35M helo ever. Details are lacking.

http://pfc-joker.livejournal.com/64108.html
 

Vegan-Zombie

New Member
Al Qaeda Militants Capture US Black Hawk Helicopters In Iraq | Zero Hedge

It's kinda old but is this true? There hasn't been anything indicating that the IQAF or the Iraqi Army operated blackhawks after the US withdrawal. Private Contractors maybe or just a hoax?

Iraq cobbling together makeshift air force to fight ISIS - The Washington Post

Also, it seems Iran is giving back the jets confiscated from Iraq prior to the 2003 invasion. With the lack of trained pilots in Iraq however, I'd assume some Iranian pilots would be flying combat missions for the government. Similar to how Russian pilots flew for North Korea/China during the Korean War.
 

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
Iranian and Syrian air forces have already been seen striking ISIS targets in Iraq, so it's not unthinkable that pilots from those air forces could be involved in trying to get the Iraqi Air Force off the ground.

@Feanor it wasn't that long ago that it was reported that 60 Iraqi helicopters have been badly shot up up to this point with AAA and the like, so it could definitely be possible. Real loss for the Iraqis though if ISIS have worked out the best way to take 'em out though.
 

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Iraqi army made a lot of noise about their counter attack on Tikrit and about how the only decision for ISIS would be to flee or die. On Saturday the government even said Tikrit has been retaken.

Well, turns out it didn't go according to plan

BBC News - Iraq crisis: Tikrit rebels 'push back Iraq army'

The Iraqi army has fallen back 25km to the south of Tikrit following a major confrontation with ISIS fighters with "major casualties in both sides".

This is the Iraqi army's first major planned assault consisting of tanks,man assortment of other armoured vehicles as well as air support.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
This article mentions used Frogfoots already bought and plans to buy used aircraft from Belarus. Maliki '' has blamed much of the rebels success on the Iraqi military’s lack of air support'' which to me at least is a load of bollocks.

Iraq crisis: Russian fighter jets arrive to hold back Isis approach - Middle East - World - The Independent

Prior to ISIS's offensive were there any USAAF instructors/advisors attached to the Iraqi air force? Meanwhile the Kurs have announced that they are staying in Kirkuk and that the city will not revert back to Iraqi government control.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGbh2nwIWfI"]On the frontline with Shia's Badr Army in Iraq - BBC News - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1MNRj2xbuo"]Iraq: Russian Su-25 fighter jets arrive in Iraq - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBZWKGl37xY"]Clashes Continue as Frontline Tension Escalates: The Battle for Iraq (Dispatch 4) - YouTube[/nomedia]
 
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RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
To be honest, initially that's what I thought because it seemed unreal to see the force which we kept reading about as being capable of delivering internal security, tanks, armoured vehicles et al routing.

But now, it's a ground force problem. The reason why Western air power has been shown to be so dominant is the ability for our forces to coordinate with aircraft in the air and make sure ordnance is delivered on target. It seems a bit less organised with the Iraqis.

Not that a couple dozen fighters with a varied and plentiful air-to-ground munition pool wouldn't help in said cooperation either.

Could be that which is hampering helicopter operations, fixed wing can deal with AAA magnificently well. If the F-16s were available fitted out with sniper pods then things could be going *slightly* differently.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I think it's still early days to tell how this will eventually play out. I expect the Iraqi to roll back a lot of the gains made by ISIS but I'll be very surprised if ISIS completely loses - anytime soon - all the ground it has taken these past few weeks.

The maps of the modern Middle East were drawn by 2 Western civil servants but locals are now trying to re-draw those maps.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ut-was-doomed-to-end-in-betrayal-9428885.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/midd...rders-isil-wants-gone-201462962758154146.html

Sykes-Picot drew Middle East's arbitrary borders | Middle East | DW.DE | 25.06.2014

BBC News - Why border lines drawn with a ruler in WW1 still rock the Middle East

Saudi Arabia has placed its security forces on full alert to deal with the possibility that ISIS will soon reach its borders.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iraq-crisis-saudi-arabia-highest-alert-isis-terrorists-near-border-1454572
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
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umair

Peace Enforcer
Iraq's problem wrt its army as explained by a friend in uniform here is that the Iraqi army despite all the equipment & training & numbers, essentially operates as a jobs program. Each Iraqi enlisted guy gets about double what a young officer in our army gets & equivalent to a GDP's pay with hazardous flight duty allowance in our airforce. Basically he says they don't have a higher purpose instilled into them as other armed forces normally have. This situation is a crucible for the Iraqi army either it will come out evolved as a cohesive national fighting force or bust. Also the lack of enough air assets ought to be a headache.
On a different note, I see many media outlets styling IS as Sunni extremists. As a Sunni Muslim myself I can tell you they aren't. IS belongs to the Wahabi/Salafi school of thought & frankly a detailed explanation would require a discussion of Islamic theology & eschatology which is not required here. Suffice to say that they aren't Sunnis.
This declaration of a caliphate maybe their biggest mistake (again requires a discourse on eschatology). No Sunni extremist or not would pledge allegiance to them what to say of the Shiites. Even their ideological brethren & benefactors in KSA are now scared of them. The irony is despite seeing the danger the Saudis would cooperate with Shiites only when hell freezes over. I see great chances for containment but outright elimination :confused:
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
It looks like maybe too little too late. The planes are just getting there, but the training coordination, etc., haven't been done. Probably means ineffective, or a lot less effective than they could have been. Hopefully, we won't be putting any more troops on the ground. They need to resolve this themselves. The discourse on why we did what we did, is political and probably doesn't need to be here, but having said that looking back, you would wonder what they (US leaders) were thinking or if they were thinking.

Mods: if this is too political, free free to delete it.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Iraq's problem wrt its army as explained by a friend in uniform here is that the Iraqi army despite all the equipment & training & numbers, essentially operates as a jobs program. Each Iraqi enlisted guy gets about double what a young officer in our army gets & equivalent to a GDP's pay with hazardous flight duty allowance in our airforce. Basically he says they don't have a higher purpose instilled into them as other armed forces normally have. This situation is a crucible for the Iraqi army either it will come out evolved as a cohesive national fighting force or bust. Also the lack of enough air assets ought to be a headache.
On a different note, I see many media outlets styling IS as Sunni extremists. As a Sunni Muslim myself I can tell you they aren't. IS belongs to the Wahabi/Salafi school of thought & frankly a detailed explanation would require a discussion of Islamic theology & eschatology which is not required here. Suffice to say that they aren't Sunnis.
This declaration of a caliphate maybe their biggest mistake (again requires a discourse on eschatology). No Sunni extremist or not would pledge allegiance to them what to say of the Shiites. Even their ideological brethren & benefactors in KSA are now scared of them. The irony is despite seeing the danger the Saudis would cooperate with Shiites only when hell freezes over. I see great chances for containment but outright elimination :confused:
do you mind if I cref this elsewhere?
 
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