F-35 - International Participation

[gf0012-aust]

Look at the chart again.

The dark yellow area represents open slots. There are even more now that the US has slid more orders to the right.

they still can't buy in the volume and timeframe unless countries cancel or defer volume - and i think quite a few doubters and those fiscally challenged would be pausing before giving slots up.

canada is a classic example. she has a runaway train happening in the norrh and is now confronted with bringing both her air and naval elements up to speed.

fuel usage for her airforce has gone up in the last 10 months - and her legacy fleet not only won't cut it, but will be degrading far faster than projected

she's going to have redo all her sums.

there's a few western euros now also in the same situation

 

[Volkodav]

I wonder if lack of F-35 slots could actually help Typhoon, Rafale, Gripen, SH and F-16 sales?

If they cant get their first choice they may consider the fall back solutions, Australia could have a market for not only the SHs but also the HUGs if some nations (Canada) get desperate enough.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I wonder if lack of F-35 slots could actually help Typhoon, Rafale, Gripen, SH and F-16 sales?

If they cant get their first choice they may consider the fall back solutions, Australia could have a market for not only the SHs but also the HUGs if some nations (Canada) get desperate enough.

am pretty sure that lockmart would work out a way forward, but I struggle to see how they can meet current commitments + the external demand in a timeframe that keeps everyone happy

granted they will realise efficiencies as time goes on, but thats a few years out.

I'd also assume that BAE and the French are girding their marketing loins....

 

[RobWilliams]

Well BAE has a stake in 3 fighters; Typhoon, Gripen and then the F-35, so compared to Dassault at least they stand to gain in more fighter programs when their main product does not win.

That being said, any country which disregards the F-35 down to cost will not be getting Rafale or Typhoon either, which is why I have high hopes for Gripen.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Well BAE has a stake in 3 fighters; Typhoon, Gripen and then the F-35, so compared to Dassault at least they stand to gain in more fighter programs when their main product does not win.

That being said, any country which disregards the F-35 down to cost will not be getting Rafale or Typhoon either, which is why I have high hopes for Gripen.

I cannot see the Canadians going to Rafale, there are too many security and integration issues with the Americans - and the Canadians are tightly linked into US C4ISR - and are even moreso with the emerging issues in the north

 

[harryriedl]

Well BAE has a stake in 3 fighters; Typhoon, Gripen and then the F-35, so compared to Dassault at least they stand to gain in more fighter programs when their main product does not win.

That being said, any country which disregards the F-35 down to cost will not be getting Rafale or Typhoon either, which is why I have high hopes for Gripen.

BAE couldn't have planned it better in many respects, having a share in most the of the western fighter programs, it seems they don't have the same desire to persuade buyers to move to a non F35 solution unlike Boeing or Dassult who only have their one program.

 

[John Fedup]

I cannot see the Canadians going to Rafale, there are too many security and integration issues with the Americans - and the Canadians are tightly linked into US C4ISR - and are even moreso with the emerging issues in the north

Agreed, and much more importantly, a Rafale deal would be seen as Quebec appeasement by the rest of Canada as all the industrial offsets would be in Quebec.

 

[John Fedup]

they still can't buy in the volume and timeframe unless countries cancel or defer volume - and i think quite a few doubters and those fiscally challenged would be pausing before giving slots up.

canada is a classic example. she has a runaway train happening in the norrh and is now confronted with bringing both her air and naval elements up to speed.

fuel usage for her airforce has gone up in the last 10 months - and her legacy fleet not only won't cut it, but will be degrading far faster than projected

she's going to have redo all her sums.

there's a few western euros now also in the same situation

A runaway train is putting it too mildly. The RCN is in a disgraceful state (only 17 barely deployable ships out of 33 in service, 50 year old SeaKings and a non-functioning NSBP that is stalled). As for the RCAF, the Hornet fleet can't last much past 2020 and the political BS going on now won't allow a decision on ANY jet until 2016. Concerning the JSF, the Govt politicos, the DND, and to a lesser extent the RCAF have all screwed up this file but the apathy of the Cdn public is probably an even greater problem. The Cdn public has zero understanding of national defence and how allied co-operation works. I am certain the USA would love to tell the Cdn public to FO but they can't without making the defence of North America even more difficult.

 

[gf0012-aust]

There must be some handwringing going on with a few people over this milestone.....


F-35 Achieves New Milestones
Woodrow Bellamy III
[Aviation Today May 9, 2014] Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II fighter jet fleet surpassed 16,000 flight hours and set a new monthly flying record in April, the aerospace and defense manufacturer said.

In April the fleet achieved a new monthly record for System Development and Demonstration (SDD) flights, with 282 total flight hours and 153 flights. The fifth generation fighter aircraft also completed its 700th vertical takeoff and landing sortie in April, and began crosswind landings and expeditionary operations.

"We're nearly complete with Block 2B software flight science testing on the F-35As, and we'll move forward with Block 3 software testing this summer. The SDD program is scheduled to complete Block 2B testing for the F-35B this year in support of the U.S. Marine Corps' Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in 2015 with its F-35B fleet," said J.D. McFarlan, Lockheed Martin's vice president for F-35 Test & Verification.

 

[John Fedup]

There must be some handwringing going on with a few people over this milestone.....


F-35 Achieves New Milestones
Woodrow Bellamy III
[Aviation Today May 9, 2014] Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II fighter jet fleet surpassed 16,000 flight hours and set a new monthly flying record in April, the aerospace and defense manufacturer said.

In April the fleet achieved a new monthly record for System Development and Demonstration (SDD) flights, with 282 total flight hours and 153 flights. The fifth generation fighter aircraft also completed its 700th vertical takeoff and landing sortie in April, and began crosswind landings and expeditionary operations.

"We're nearly complete with Block 2B software flight science testing on the F-35As, and we'll move forward with Block 3 software testing this summer. The SDD program is scheduled to complete Block 2B testing for the F-35B this year in support of the U.S. Marine Corps' Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in 2015 with its F-35B fleet," said J.D. McFarlan, Lockheed Martin's vice president for F-35 Test & Verification.

Canada's CBC and mainstream media will rush to get this news out...[sarcasm button off]. The folks at DND will get this news out in 6-12 months (after an exhaustive review) to support the JSF procurement...the good news, the RCAF has some new stuff, the RCN...nothing.

 

[John Newman]

Came across this today regarding LRIP Lot 10, appears that, at this stage, Lot 10 is going to be for 96 airframes:


https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportu...2f631ad72c65d214740bb&tab=core&tabmode=list&=

The breakdown is:
* 80 A's
* 14 B's
* 2 C's

 

[gf0012-aust]

Australia doesn't look at individual costs as it distorts the allocation

Thats why overall fleet procurement costs are used as it brings it back to a proper procurement/sustainment figure

 

[RobWilliams]

Like the UK, you can imagine what the response was when it was revealed that when the UK places their first F-35 order for 14 planes it would come to £2.5bn.

 

[SpudmanWP]

There's slots open but I guess what's being said is that while orders could be made for slots in that production rude (given enough notice) there's no possibility of any country pushing to bring production numbers up - we're still into managing concurrency etc?

There is a lot more capacity in the queue that you think. I know I have said it before, but look at the chart.

All of the JPO Partners are part of the Blue and only FMS is covered by the yellow. Compare the chart to what is known about LRIP10. Compare the plan for 96 airframes with the capacity in 2016 for 145 which leaves a gap of 49 airframes. That gap continues through 2020.

I was able to dig up detailed per-year orders that include FMS (Israel and Japan) and Partners. South Korea is not on the FMS list yet but unordered Partners (like Canada) are. Here is the link from July of 2013. http://goo.gl/bnmcoC

I put those numbers into my original chart (RED LINE). I also noted that there has been more sliding to the right of orders since then and placed the announced 96 planes for 2016 (LRIP10) and the projected effect of the slide I plotted on the PURPLE LINE.

Note that this got rid of the projected lack of FMS open slots in 2020 so now there are 35-50 slots open in any given year through whenever. Here is the updated chart. http://goo.gl/zFIvVV

 

[John Fedup]

The Ottawa citizen is running an article today and tomorrow by a guest writer hyping the F-15SE as alternative for Canada fighter replacement. I do not understand why they would bother. The F-15SE is not on Canada's list nor is Boeing pushing it as the F-18 SH is easier to promote. The Silent Eagle is a concept and no other nation is likely to buy it including the USAF. Although it makes more sense than a Typhoon or Rafale, it shares the same out of reach price tag as these Euro contenders.

 

[SpudmanWP]

It's the ABJ (Anything But JSF) crowd rearing its head

 

[King Wally]

The Ottawa citizen is running an article today and tomorrow by a guest writer hyping the F-15SE as alternative for Canada fighter replacement. I do not understand why they would bother. The F-15SE is not on Canada's list nor is Boeing pushing it as the F-18 SH is easier to promote. The Silent Eagle is a concept and no other nation is likely to buy it including the USAF. Although it makes more sense than a Typhoon or Rafale, it shares the same out of reach price tag as these Euro contenders.

I think it's pretty clear once someone is holding the SE up as the answer that they have limited understanding of the real decision needing to be made. If developmental hiccups and cost issues scare you about the F-35 then imagine what trying to get the Silent Eagle developed and operational all by yourself as a sole customer is going to do to the heart! Talk about leaping out of the pan and into the fire!

Canada truly has few serious options on the table right now in 2014, as you say the SH is about the only logical alternative and even it's strengths like cost and tech maturity are reducing by the year as the F-35 production rates increase and testing and fine tuning ramp up. I think the longer they leave it the more apparent it will become there is only one real option available.

 

[John Fedup]

I think the longer they leave it the more apparent it will become there is only one real option available.

You would think so but then again, we are talking about politicians.

 

[John Fedup]

Canada signaled on Thursday it is likely to make a decision in the next few weeks on whether to replace its aging CF-18 fighter jets with F-35 stealth fighters from Lockheed Martin Corp or hold an open competition among aircraft makers according to a press report.

As an election is due next year (fall), the decision will be based on political considerations. Thus, is 16 months a long enough cooling off period for the Cdn electorate which does not favour the F-35 should it be selected? Going for another tender process would likely put this decision off until after the next election at which point the likely alternative (Superhornet) may no longer be in production. I predict a new tender process so this doesn't become a big issue for the election (or least minimizes it) even though the present government wants the F-35. It has the added advantage that the main contender may cease to exist but Boeing will then apply massive pressure on the US Congress to purchase some Growlers to keep the line going until at least the end of 2016 so that they can keep the possibility of a Cdn deal alive.

 

[pkcasimir]

I predict a new tender process so this doesn't become a big issue for the election (or least minimizes it) even though the present government wants the F-35. It has the added advantage that the main contender may cease to exist but Boeing will then apply massive pressure on the US Congress to purchase some Growlers to keep the line going until at least the end of 2016 so that they can keep the possibility of a Cdn deal alive.

If Boeing does lobby Congress, which I doubt given what Boeing has on its plate right now, to purchase some Growlers they will be met with a deaf ear. The US Defense Budget is just too tight and there is no money for anymore Growlers. If the Liberals win the election, then little Justin will opt for the Rafale or the Gripen. If he does, watch out for the backlash from the US Congress.