F-35 - International Participation

[John Fedup]

Toronto's Globe and Mail newspaper is reporting that the Canadian govt is looking at yet another life extension upgrade for the CF-18s (in order to take part in the campaign against ISIL no doubt). Just another complete waste of money in order to put a fighter replacement on hold until after the next election. If the JSF consortium were smart, they would ask Canada to pi$$ off and award no further work to Canadian companies as Canada will never purchase this jet IMO.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Toronto's Globe and Mail newspaper is reporting that the Canadian govt is looking at yet another life extension upgrade for the CF-18s (in order to take part in the campaign against ISIL no doubt). Just another complete waste of money in order to put a fighter replacement on hold until after the next election. If the JSF consortium were smart, they would ask Canada to pi$$ off and award no further work to Canadian companies as Canada will never purchase this jet IMO.

I am very sorry John, I know how personally disappointing that might be for you,,, it seems so few people really have any understanding of Defense needs in general, and most particularly "air power". I felt a similar disgust when the lovely Raptor production was killed, for what amounted to politics, well best not to get going on that.....

That initially killed my enthusiasm for what has become the lovely capable little F-35,,,,,but good sense and the fine gentlemen of Defense Talk helped me "work through" my "denial" after losing the old girl, and now I am fully on board with this new chick, and she is a "tricky" little sister.. In fact this airplane promises to have the deepest bag of tricks we have ever seen.....

So don't give up hope, as the production ramps up, and costs come down, and people begin to "rave" about this airplane and her capabilities, and the poor old Hornets continue to get beat on and break, they will see the light, keep a stiff upper lip, and keep the faith bruda.

 

[John Newman]

Just came across this:

Israel Planning To Increase F-35 Buy | Defense News | defensenews.com

Looks like Israel is planning to add another 25 aircraft and increase its buy from 19 to 44.

More good news for the F-35 program!

 

[gf0012-aust]

Just came across this:

Israel Planning To Increase F-35 Buy | Defense News | defensenews.com

Looks like Israel is planning to add another 25 aircraft and increase its buy from 19 to 44.

More good news for the F-35 program!

and the US is buying another 29

 

[John Newman]

Interesting article on the Defense News website with Bogdan talking about the possibility of a 'block buy' for the partner nations and FMS customers:


F-35 Heading Toward Block Buy | Defense News | defensenews.com


The paragraphs that I thought were interesting are:

With the negotiations over LRIP 8 at a conclusion, Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan, the head of the F-35 joint program office, is planning on negotiating LRIP 9 and 10 together. And come LRIP 11, he wants a whole new model of procurement in place.

And:

A number of partner nations have already committed to large procurements of the fifth-generation stealthy jet, so bundling their orders together is just logical, Bogdan said.

“If you were to take their requirements and put them together, you could actually have a substantial number of airplanes, starting in LRIP 11 and spanning LRIP 11, 12 and 13, bought as a block of airplanes, almost as if it was a multi-year [buy] for the US,” he said.

Participation in a block buy would be open to all international partners or foreign military sales customers who are interested, and Bogdan said he expects “substantial savings” for those involved.

But while a block buy could benefit international partners, the US would not be able to participate in such a buy due to acquisition rules barring a multi-year procurement until the jet enters full-rate production.

In other words, the United States would be paying more per F-35 model than a country such as, for argument’s sake, South Korea, which has pledged to procure 40 F-35A fighters through foreign military sales.

And this paragraph:

Which is another wrinkle to be navigated. The US is by far the largest customer for the F-35 program, and while a block buy of international customers will lead to savings, the greatest savings possible would come from getting the US on a multi-year once the program enters full-rate production.

The things that stood out for me are:
* LRIP 9 & 10 to be negotiated together - (good, should lead to further reduction in price).
* From LRIP 11 the new 'Block Buy' procurement model should be in place - (again good news, should lead to more savings).
* Talk of LRIP 12 & 13 - (as I had previously understood it, LRIP 11 was to be the last LRIP before MYP started, is this a change to the program and is MYP being deferred for two years?).


If I'm reading the article correctly (and assuming it is accurate!) it appears to be a bit of a 'double edged sword' in that on the one hand, negotiating LRIP 9 & 10 together, should lead to more savings and from LRIP 11 that the new procurement model of a 'Block Buy' might be in place to add further savings for Partner nations and FMS customers, but on the other hand, what appears to be new, the addition of LRIP 12 & 13 will prevent the US (the largest customer) from participating in Multi-year buys until full rate MYP starts.


From an Australian perspective, as I understand the 72 F-35A's currently approved are to be procured as follows (information from Australian Aviation, June 2014):

Lot .. US FY .. CY .. Aircraft
LRIP 6 .. 2012 .. 2014 .. 2
LRIP 10 .. 2016 .. 2018 .. 8
LRIP 11 .. 2017 .. 2019 .. 15
MYP .. 2018 .. 2020 .. 15 (will this now be LRIP 12?)
MYP .. 2019 .. 2021 .. 15 (will this now be LRIP 13?)
MYP .. 2020 .. 2022 .. 15
MYP .. 2021 .. 2023 .. 2

TOTAL 72


Again if the article is accurate and two further LRIP lots (12 & 13) are to be included, then the majority of aircraft for the RAAF will be purchased without the US being able to participate in the MYP and therefore not being able to commit to multi-year procurement, so I wonder what the impact will be on the unit price for the RAAF and other nations until the US is able to participate in multi-year procurement?

Not being negative about the F-35 or the F-35 program, but I do wonder what negative impact the addition of two more LRIP's will have on some of the more 'price sensitive' nations when it comes to how and when they will buy their aircraft and specifically regarding the RAAF what extra cost per airframe a possible delay in MYP could do too, maybe that is why Bogdan is 'taking up' the possibility of a 'Block Buy' for Partner Nations and FMS customers?

 

[John Fedup]

Press reports in Canada are quoting remarks from a Pentagon briefing that Canada will place an order for four jets later this month for delivery in 2017. Public Works denies this is the case. IMO, I doubt the government has the balls to do this prior to the 2015 election but I could be wrong. It does have the advantage of forcing the Liberals to take a position on the F-35.

 

[Delta204]

Press reports in Canada are quoting remarks from a Pentagon briefing that Canada will place an order for four jets later this month for delivery in 2017. Public Works denies this is the case. IMO, I doubt the government has the balls to do this prior to the 2015 election but I could be wrong. It does have the advantage of forcing the Liberals to take a position on the F-35.

Agreed, no doubt this was a slip up by someone. With the announced life extension (again) of the F-18's it would be highly unlikely a decision is made before the election. I'm still 99% certain the F-35 will be selected, but the Conservatives have handled the procurement extremely poorly and making an announcement now would only give the opposition more political fodder against them.


...It is nice to see the production costs coming down, hopefully the F-35 has weathered through most of the storm!

 

[John Fedup]

Agreed, no doubt this was a slip up by someone. With the announced life extension (again) of the F-18's it would be highly unlikely a decision is made before the election. I'm still 99% certain the F-35 will be selected, but the Conservatives have handled the procurement extremely poorly and making an announcement now would only give the opposition more political fodder against them.


...It is nice to see the production costs coming down, hopefully the F-35 has weathered through most of the storm!

I think the liberals would have to support a F-35 purchase or a mixed buy of F-35s and F-18s (Growler version). The latter solution would appease their kumbayah base.

 

[SpudmanWP]

Israeli Panel Rejects Proposed Increase Of F-35

An Israeli cabinet panel has rejected a decision of the defense minister to procure an additional 31 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and limited the procurement of Israel’s second batch of JSFs to only 13.

Israeli Panel Rejects Proposed Increase Of F-35 | Defense content from Aviation Week

That cabinet has now had its "jump the shark" moment.

Leading the surprising opposition to the F-35 deal was Minister for Intelligence Yuval Steinitz, who declared: "We are not rubber stamps for the [ministry of defense] and air force." In five different meetings of the panel on defense procurement dealing with the JSFs, Steinitz presented several articles published in Aviation Week from 2003 and 2008 raising doubts on the effectiveness of the F-35.

That's right, he ignored virtually the entire SDD test program to date, JPO documents and went with public info that was between 6 and 11 years old.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Israeli Panel Rejects Proposed Increase Of F-35


Israeli Panel Rejects Proposed Increase Of F-35 | Defense content from Aviation Week

That cabinet has now had its "jump the shark" moment.



That's right, he ignored virtually the entire SDD test program to date, JPO documents and went with public info that was between 6 and 11 years old.

I suspect that it will be short term opposition. there are other issues at play here

 

[Blackshoe]

I suspect that it will be short term opposition. there are other issues at play here

No doubt related to the leadership of the country they are buying it from...

 

[RobWilliams]

An F-35B has conducted the first flight with UK weapons (Paveway IV and ASRAAM) at Pax River in the last few days, although they weren't the proper weapons. They were trial rounds simulating the same dimensions and weights to see the impact on flight performance.

No indication about the locations of the weapons, Paveway IV probably internal and ASRAAM probably external but there was a lot of talk years ago about getting ASRAAM cleared for internal carriage.

F-35B makes first flight with UK weapons - 11/25/2014 - Flight Global

 

[Air Force Brat]

I suspect that it will be short term opposition. there are other issues at play here

You are not doubt right about that, the serious chill between our own Pres and the Israeli PM, no doubt has the Israeli's rather disgusted and hoping to send a message. Sadly, the US has let down most of our allies in the last few years, and seems to be oblivious to the existential issues faced by Israel.

As the F-35 begins to get into the hands of partners, I have no doubt that this airplanes very effective warfighting tools and user friendliness will win them over, I have to admit that when I came to DT, I was very concerned over legitimate issues, and "influenced" by the professional "opponents??? of the F-35. Of course as the Air Force Brat, most of my concern involved the cessation of F-22 production, a move that Jeff Head of Sino Defense and myself consider a very damaging move for USAF particularly.. but that is water under the bridge.

I would like to invite our DT brothers to check out the F-35 thread on SDF as it contains some great pictures and videos, as well as some very informative discussion. This airplane is really shaping up, and it is as "slick" an airframe as you are likely to find on anything, I really believe the F-35s L/O will be second only to the F-22s, in fact General Hostage recently placed it ahead of the Raptor, which is contrary to most of our "insider" information, but may well be true...He is an enthusiastic F-35 proponent, and insists the US needs F-35s in numbers to faithfully fulfill her many roles the US DOD has envisioned for them. Of particular interest is the recent carrier quals, which were finished 3 days early, needless to say we are very happy with the F-35C, as we are with the A and B....this is a very fine airplane, but more importantly, it will allow an interoperability with our partners that will give us all a boost in National Security, with the many growing and unpredictable threats, we each face, that is peace of mind that we can't afford to take for granted!

 

[John Fedup]

I would like to invite our DT brothers to check out the F-35 thread on SDF as it contains some great pictures

I just checked the J-31 thread at SDF. There are indeed some great pictures.

 

[ngatimozart]

There is a report that the Canadian Govt have been quietly negotiating to acquire four F35s as early as next year. F-35 procurement programme leaks cloud Canadian fighter plans - IHS Jane's 360

 

[John Fedup]

There is a report that the Canadian Govt have been quietly negotiating to acquire four F35s as early as next year. F-35 procurement programme leaks cloud Canadian fighter plans - IHS Jane's 360

This leak originated with a Pentagon PowerPoint briefing a couple of weeks ago. If true, the CDN govt had to place an order by the end of Nov to get part of the LRIP for 2015. This has not happened as of today. The Harper govt has denied that an order is pending. With a fall election due in 2015, why would they want to open this can of worms? Also, they have announced another life extension to 2025 for our legacy Hornets(frigging waste of money). This may be an attempt to delay a buy until the SH production ends thus enhancing the F-35's chances. It would make more sense to follow Australia's lead and buy some SH/growlers now and buy some F-35s later. Hell, maybe the USN's 6th gen fighter due in 2030 could be an option given the glacial pace of defence procurement in Canada.

 

[John Fedup]

The Ottawa Citizen has a story about a RCAF general who will give a presentation in London on March 2015 regarding the RCAF's future training requirements for the F-35. This appears to be another slip in the official govt policy that the future fighter replacement is still an on going process. I have no doubt the Harper Govt will purchase the F-35 should it win the next election. The real question is what the Liberals will do should they win. If the federal Liberals can learn how to do a 180 turn like their lying counterparts in Ontario, then they can opt for the F-35 as well.

 

[Delta204]

The Cdn government published a report earlier this month analyzing potential replacements to the CF-18's. The study took 4 aircraft: F-35, Typhoon, Rafale, and the Super Hornet and assessed them according to perceived Canadian defense needs. It's an interesting read as I'm not sure I've seen any comparison like this published before in a government report. The public report does not identify which aircraft ranked where; it only assess a level of risk in each of the 6 categories that it used to assess each aircraft.

The report shows a wide spread from low to high risk in most of the categories; most interesting for me was the "state-on-state" warfare category which ranged from "medium risk" to "very high risk". Again, the public report doesn't specify which fighters were medium and which were high risk; I would presume the F-35 would have been in the medium risk category but I'm curious how the other 3 ranked. The assessment also looked at future threats beyond the 2030's to rank the fighters and also emphasized the importance of future growth and development.

I've long believed the F-35 to be far superior to the other 3 aircraft, this report seems to confirm that (based on my reading of it, others may come to different conclusions). Unfortunately, this received very little media coverage in Canada....but that's no surprise.

Summary Report - The Evaluation of Options for the Replacement of the CF-18 Fighter Fleet - National Fighter Procurement Secretariat (NFPS) - Military and Marine Procurement - Buying and Selling - PWGSC

 

[ADMk2]

The Cdn government published a report earlier this month analyzing potential replacements to the CF-18's. The study took 4 aircraft: F-35, Typhoon, Rafale, and the Super Hornet and assessed them according to perceived Canadian defense needs. It's an interesting read as I'm not sure I've seen any comparison like this published before in a government report. The public report does not identify which aircraft ranked where; it only assess a level of risk in each of the 6 categories that it used to assess each aircraft.

The report shows a wide spread from low to high risk in most of the categories; most interesting for me was the "state-on-state" warfare category which ranged from "medium risk" to "very high risk". Again, the public report doesn't specify which fighters were medium and which were high risk; I would presume the F-35 would have been in the medium risk category but I'm curious how the other 3 ranked. The assessment also looked at future threats beyond the 2030's to rank the fighters and also emphasized the importance of future growth and development.

I've long believed the F-35 to be far superior to the other 3 aircraft, this report seems to confirm that (based on my reading of it, others may come to different conclusions). Unfortunately, this received very little media coverage in Canada....but that's no surprise.

Summary Report - The Evaluation of Options for the Replacement of the CF-18 Fighter Fleet - National Fighter Procurement Secretariat (NFPS) - Military and Marine Procurement - Buying and Selling - PWGSC

Outside of a few marketers, a few bloggers / journos and a handful of internet nutjob / basement dwellers, I don't think many seriously believe any older aircraft is truly more capable in every area of air combat (ie: overall) than the F-35.

Certainly no-one who has actually flown the thing has said so...

Given the staggering investment in the aircraft, I can't see anything SERIOUSLY on the horizon challenging it either.

 

[John Fedup]

The Cdn government published a report earlier this month analyzing potential replacements to the CF-18's. The study took 4 aircraft: F-35, Typhoon, Rafale, and the Super Hornet and assessed them according to perceived Canadian defense needs. It's an interesting read as I'm not sure I've seen any comparison like this published before in a government report. The public report does not identify which aircraft ranked where; it only assess a level of risk in each of the 6 categories that it used to assess each aircraft.

The report shows a wide spread from low to high risk in most of the categories; most interesting for me was the "state-on-state" warfare category which ranged from "medium risk" to "very high risk". Again, the public report doesn't specify which fighters were medium and which were high risk; I would presume the F-35 would have been in the medium risk category but I'm curious how the other 3 ranked. The assessment also looked at future threats beyond the 2030's to rank the fighters and also emphasized the importance of future growth and development.

I've long believed the F-35 to be far superior to the other 3 aircraft, this report seems to confirm that (based on my reading of it, others may come to different conclusions). Unfortunately, this received very little media coverage in Canada....but that's no surprise.

Summary Report - The Evaluation of Options for the Replacement of the CF-18 Fighter Fleet - National Fighter Procurement Secretariat (NFPS) - Military and Marine Procurement - Buying and Selling - PWGSC

This review is just a bone thrown at the pinkos and Euro vendors. I give credit to Saab for not participating as no Euro option will happen and rightfully so. The F-35 or a mixed fleet of F-35s and Superhornets/Growlers are the only choices.