Ukranian Crisis

[dprijadi]

Feanor , Thanks for your constant updates. I was reading it since you started the updates and it is a real eye opener when i compared it to the usual news site that i bookmarked.

I would love to hear your opinion on ukraine crisis (after putin said he pulled russian troops from the border)

1. Is it true one of the reason of this crisis is because US wants to break up the improving economic relation between EU (read germany) and Russia ? To drive a wedge between russia and europe ?
2. Is this crisis and the subsequent 'back to cold-war' rethoric a prelude for effort' to increase NATO european members defense spending , including additional armament and bases on easternmost NATO members ?
3. Do you see any relation of Ukraine Crisis with Syrian Crisis ? some bloggers already hint of some kind of 'punishment' to russia because of their refusal to acknowledge 'assad's chemical attack and thus stopping the bombing of syria by US forces.
4. What do you think of the current aggresive stance by US State Department towards russia ? and the lukewarm reaction of European nations to do more than just token sanction ? do you see a split between US and Europe in how to handle Ukrainian crisis ?

Do you think (as of this day) putin will let eastern ukraine go or will he use covert assets to help the rebels there ?

Thanks

 

[Ananda]

Meanwhile this continue crisis has begin to hit the Ukraine reputation on Military Hardware market (which from what I gather so far is the big chunck on Ukraine export thus their Forex earners).

Politik Indonesia - Politik > Ukraina Krisis, Kemenhan Batal Beli 50 Unit BTR-4

The link in Indonesian, but basically saying that Indonesian Mindef plan to cancel the procurement of 50 BTR-4 from Ukraine. As being mentioned on Indonesian Army thread, the Indonesian Marines already signed procurement for 5 BTR-4 (with total option for 50). Seems this going to be canceled due to Mindef assesment that under current conditions, Ukraine can not be considered reliable as supplier. Mindef in the article stated that they are now already talking with other supplier as alternative to Ukraine BTR-4.

It will be quite ironic if alternative is Russian BMP-3F (which the Indonesian Marines already used anyway).

 

[Feanor]

Feanor , Thanks for your constant updates. I was reading it since you started the updates and it is a real eye opener when i compared it to the usual news site that i bookmarked.

I would love to hear your opinion on ukraine crisis (after putin said he pulled russian troops from the border)

1. Is it true one of the reason of this crisis is because US wants to break up the improving economic relation between EU (read germany) and Russia ? To drive a wedge between russia and europe ?

Uh. I see no evidence of that. What's the reasoning behind that theory?

2. Is this crisis and the subsequent 'back to cold-war' rethoric a prelude for effort' to increase NATO european members defense spending , including additional armament and bases on easternmost NATO members ?

Is there money for this? I'm not so sure. We will see.

3. Do you see any relation of Ukraine Crisis with Syrian Crisis ? some bloggers already hint of some kind of 'punishment' to russia because of their refusal to acknowledge 'assad's chemical attack and thus stopping the bombing of syria by US forces.

This crisis is primarily an internal Ukrainian one. Foreign involvement doesn't help in either side, but it's a crisis that's been brewing for a while. Ukraine has had one incompetent government after another for the past 20+ years, each worse then the previous. Finally it exploded.

4. What do you think of the current aggresive stance by US State Department towards russia ? and the lukewarm reaction of European nations to do more than just token sanction ? do you see a split between US and Europe in how to handle Ukrainian crisis ?

It's not much of a split. The US is a relatively unified actor, while the EU is a whole bunch of actors. If you want to see what a split looks like, look at the reaction to the War in Georgia. In this case I don't see a fundamental disagreement in evaluation of Russian action from the West. I see a Europe that's less decisive and less willing to act, but their basic position (as far as I can tell) is the same.

Do you think (as of this day) putin will let eastern ukraine go or will he use covert assets to help the rebels there ?

I think that it's beyond the point where Putin can let or not let eastern Ukraine go. Volunteers and donations are pouring across the border, and the fighting inside Ukraine is spreading from the initial areas. There may still be a small window to de-escalate the situation, but it's closing in my opinion.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

In Mariupol' fighting has broken out. 20 dead separatists are reported and a local police station is burning. Army and National Guard units are in and around the city. Government casualties are cited as 1 dead 5 wounded. 1 government BMP-2 seems to be damaged.

To clarify, local activists seized the police building, which was then stormed and freed by Kiev troops. Local police refused to take possession of the freed building. It appears that the ensuing fighting involved some of the local police fighting on the side of the rebels against the Kiev troops, from inside the police building. BMP-2s were used to shoot up the building.

Reinforcements from Donetsk are en-route to help the rebels.

A lot of the confrontation is between unarmed civilians and troops. Note the video where a random BMP-2 driving through the city is surrounded and stormed by random bystanders. Note that the BMP-2 that was destroyed was bort 240, the one in the video is bort 205.

http://newsru.com/world/09may2014/mariupol.html
u_96:
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhfPkHvFBvE"]Захват БМП в Мариуполе (другой ракурÑ) 11:42 9 Ð¼Ð°Ñ 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]
u_96:
u_96:
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² Мариуполе ÑтрелÑÑŽÑ‚ (8 убитых)
jerry24_it:

The first three videos are separate, the rest of the photos and videos are from Mariupol'.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/66692.html

A massive set of photos and videos from Mariupol'.

Colonel Cassad -

The top half of the photos are Kiev troops, the bottom half are Donetsk militia and civilians in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

u_96:

In Donbass a 12 year old child was wounded, and an Orthodox priest was shot. The child was wearing a Georgian ribbon. Details are unclear.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Äîíåöêîé îáëàñòè çàñòðåëèëè ïðàâîñëàâíîãî ñâÿùåííèêà è òÿæåëî ðàíèëè 12-ëåòíåãî ðåáåíêà

Donetsk People's Republic has refused to delay the referendum on Putin's request. In Kharkov however they've agreed to postpone the referendum.

Colonel Cassad -
http://newsru.com/world/09may2014/noref.html

The Kiev government has announced that they will hold a number of round table discussions across the country to try and de-escalate the crisis.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íîâàÿ èäåÿ Êèåâà: êðóãëûå ñòîëû âìåñòî ðåôåðåíäóìîâ

The local government in Odessa has made waving foreign flags illegal.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Îäåññå 9 ìàÿ çàïðåòèëè èíîñòðàííûå ôëàãè, âêëþ÷àÿ ðîññèéñêèé

Russia is demanding advanced payments for natural gas deliveries. Ukraine has refused to pay for natural gas in advance. This may lead to shut downs of deliveries. Overall this is not surprising, given the lack of funds to pay for the gas.

http://newsru.com/finance/09may2014/ukr_3.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ââîäèò ðåæèì ïðåäîïëàòû çà ïîñòàâëåííûé Óêðàèíå ãàç

 

[Feanor]

Update.

In Mariupol' fighting has broken out. 20 dead separatists are reported and a local police station is burning. Army and National Guard units are in and around the city. Government casualties are cited as 1 dead 5 wounded. 1 government BMP-2 seems to be damaged.

To clarify, local activists seized the police building, which was then stormed and freed by Kiev troops. Local police refused to take possession of the freed building. It appears that the ensuing fighting involved some of the local police fighting on the side of the rebels against the Kiev troops, from inside the police building. BMP-2s were used to shoot up the building.

Reinforcements from Donetsk are en-route to help the rebels.

A lot of the confrontation is between unarmed civilians and troops. Note the video where a random BMP-2 driving through the city is surrounded and stormed by random bystanders. Note that the BMP-2 that was destroyed was bort 240, the one in the video is bort 205.

http://newsru.com/world/09may2014/mariupol.html
u_96:
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhfPkHvFBvE"]Захват БМП в Мариуполе (другой ракурÑ) 11:42 9 Ð¼Ð°Ñ 2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]
u_96:
u_96:
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² Мариуполе ÑтрелÑÑŽÑ‚ (8 убитых)
jerry24_it:

The first three videos are separate, the rest of the photos and videos are from Mariupol'.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/66692.html

A massive set of photos and videos from Mariupol'.

Colonel Cassad -

The top half of the photos are Kiev troops, the bottom half are Donetsk militia and civilians in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

u_96:

In Donbass a 12 year old child was wounded, and an Orthodox priest was shot. The child was wearing a Georgian ribbon. Details are unclear.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Äîíåöêîé îáëàñòè çàñòðåëèëè ïðàâîñëàâíîãî ñâÿùåííèêà è òÿæåëî ðàíèëè 12-ëåòíåãî ðåáåíêà

Donetsk People's Republic has refused to delay the referendum on Putin's request. In Kharkov however they've agreed to postpone the referendum.

Colonel Cassad -
http://newsru.com/world/09may2014/noref.html

Victory Day celebrations in Slavyansk.

http://tutuskania.livejournal.com/1632369.html

The Kiev government has announced that they will hold a number of round table discussions across the country to try and de-escalate the crisis.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íîâàÿ èäåÿ Êèåâà: êðóãëûå ñòîëû âìåñòî ðåôåðåíäóìîâ

The local government in Odessa has made waving foreign flags illegal.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Îäåññå 9 ìàÿ çàïðåòèëè èíîñòðàííûå ôëàãè, âêëþ÷àÿ ðîññèéñêèé

Russia is demanding advanced payments for natural gas deliveries. Ukraine has refused to pay for natural gas in advance. This may lead to shut downs of deliveries. Overall this is not surprising, given the lack of funds to pay for the gas.

http://newsru.com/finance/09may2014/ukr_3.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ââîäèò ðåæèì ïðåäîïëàòû çà ïîñòàâëåííûé Óêðàèíå ãàç

 

[....]

The kiev government always reports things like "9 terrorists killed bla bla bla", are they including unarmed people in these figures?

The government shot an RT staff member today, and one of the kiev appointed governors gave a speech where he said that hitler was trying to free Ukraine from communism (or something along those lines) :smash

 

[Feanor]

The kiev government always reports things like "9 terrorists killed bla bla bla", are they including unarmed people in these figures?

The government shot an RT staff member today, and one of the kiev appointed governors gave a speech where he said that hitler was trying to free Ukraine from communism (or something along those lines) :smash

It's very messy. There's no clear answer, and casualty figures are unreliable. I provide the best figures I can find, with the sources listed. You basically have to make up your own mind. Sometimes they separate the figures, sometimes they don't. Sometimes they don't know how to separate the figures. Remember a lot of the militia are unarmed but none the less organized and acting against the government troops.

 

[the concerned]

I don't understand how people say that the Ukrainian government is wrong for its actions. The best hope the pro-Russians have is the elections at the end of the month but instead of getting together to provide a government that they could be happy with they keep commiting acts of violence and storming buildings. Also hasn't putin scored an own goal by taking crimea he took away all the possible pro-Russian votes that could have provided the outcome that he wanted. At the end of the day no other country would allow citizens to walk into government buildings and take up arms without meeting the same response, I'd like to see someone try that here in the UK I wouldn't like the outcome

 

[nkvd]

I don't understand how people say that the Ukrainian government is wrong for its actions. At the end of the day no other country would allow citizens to walk into government buildings and take up arms without meeting the same response, I'd like to see someone try that here in the UK I wouldn't like the outcome

How did the current Kiev goverment come to power by the way?By occupying buildings that`s how.

Mr Ramzan Kadyrov on the situation in Ukraina: “there are no Chechen battalions in Ukraine.” He added that if there were, those individuals who had alleged Chechen involvement would have fled from Slovyansk in terror long ago.
Question.How long before we start to see these characters start to appear in Ukraina?

 

[Feanor]

I don't understand how people say that the Ukrainian government is wrong for its actions. The best hope the pro-Russians have is the elections at the end of the month but instead of getting together to provide a government that they could be happy with they keep commiting acts of violence and storming buildings. Also hasn't putin scored an own goal by taking crimea he took away all the possible pro-Russian votes that could have provided the outcome that he wanted. At the end of the day no other country would allow citizens to walk into government buildings and take up arms without meeting the same response, I'd like to see someone try that here in the UK I wouldn't like the outcome

There are a few points one can take issue with. For example the current government are themselves revolutionaries that took up arms and seized government buildings in Kiev. Now they're in power and they quite violently took out similar protests in the east. Government escalation of force is one of the reasons that the protesters in the east went the violent route and took up weapons. The other thing is that in Ukraine elections are regularly bought and sold, and politicians who paint themselves as one thing routinely come out as something else. Prime example: Yanukovich. Part of this is that these people no longer believe in the government in Kiev at all. They need some sort of arrangement that protects them and their interests. What that could be is unclear.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

May 9th in Mariupol' 7 more died with 39 more wounded. Fighting continues. Protesters burned down a BMP-2 that they captured yesterday. Why is unclear.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - УкраинÑкое
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Сожгли "двоечку"
http://newsru.com/world/10may2014/mariupol3.html
ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Мариуполь. 9 маÑ. БМП Ð¾Ñ‚Ð±Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ñ†Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ у Ðацгвардии
 
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQrwIVNgMik"]СепаратиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ - звери. Мариуполь - YouTube[/nomedia]
Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - 9.05.14 Мариуполь

Planes from L'vov have been arriving in Mariupol' with people dressed in black uniforms.

МариупольÑкий аÑропорт принимает украинÑких военных

Barricades have been built in Mariupol' and looting has begun.

Мариуполь поÑле кровавого Ð”Ð½Ñ ÐŸÐ¾Ð±ÐµÐ´Ñ‹ (ОбновлÑетÑÑ)

Also an MVD unit was abandoned in Mariupol', with a BTR-70, a BRDM, and three military trucks captured by the rebels. The BTR apparently works.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/71136.html
jerry24_it:
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/72045.html

This account of what happened in Mariupol' comes from colonel cassad. I'm not convinced he's completely accurate, but it fits for the most part with the material I've come across elsewhere.

The situation started with orders to disperse a pro-Russian protest rally. The police refused, and some sort of Kiev-backed volunteers blockaded the police station. They were armed with assault rifles and machineguns, and had about 10 vehicles. A fire fight broke out, either between the police and the government troops, or between two groups of government troops. The result is 6 to 10 dead police officers, and 3 dead "volunteers".

At this point about 2000 locals showed up, in small groups, by the police station. Large human walls surrounded the Kiev forces, who then opened fire on the civilians. After this the Kiev forces fell back from the city, losing a BMP-2 to the crowd in the process.

Reinforcements from Donetsk didn't make it into the city, instead they went to a local National Guard unit, disarming them, and claiming over 100 assault rifles. Gun shops in the city have been looted, and at this point it looks like Mariupol' with be under rebel control.

Colonel Cassad -

Rebel ATGM in Slavyansk.

jerry24_it:

Photos out of Kramatorsk.

jerry24_it:
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/70834.html

A Red Cross worker captured by separatists in Donetsk has been released. Interesting, I didn't even know one was captured.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Çàõâà÷åííûõ â Äîíåöêå ñîòðóäíèêîâ Êðàñíîãî êðåñòà îòïóñòèëè

 

[Feanor]

Update.

May 9th in Mariupol' 7 more died with 39 more wounded. Fighting continues. Protesters burned down a BMP-2 that they captured yesterday. Why is unclear.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - УкраинÑкое
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Сожгли "двоечку"
http://newsru.com/world/10may2014/mariupol3.html
ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Мариуполь. 9 маÑ. БМП Ð¾Ñ‚Ð±Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ñ†Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ у Ðацгвардии
 
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQrwIVNgMik"]СепаратиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ - звери. Мариуполь - YouTube[/nomedia]
Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - 9.05.14 Мариуполь

Planes from L'vov have been arriving in Mariupol' with people dressed in black uniforms.

МариупольÑкий аÑропорт принимает украинÑких военных

Barricades have been built in Mariupol' and looting has begun.

Мариуполь поÑле кровавого Ð”Ð½Ñ ÐŸÐ¾Ð±ÐµÐ´Ñ‹ (ОбновлÑетÑÑ)

Also an MVD unit was abandoned in Mariupol', with a BTR-70, a BRDM, and three military trucks captured by the rebels. The BTR apparently works.

jerry24-it.livejournal.com/71136.html
jerry24_it:
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/72045.html

This account of what happened in Mariupol' comes from colonel cassad. I'm not convinced he's completely accurate, but it fits for the most part with the material I've come across elsewhere.

The situation started with orders to disperse a pro-Russian protest rally. The police refused, and some sort of Kiev-backed volunteers blockaded the police station. They were armed with assault rifles and machineguns, and had about 10 vehicles. A fire fight broke out, either between the police and the government troops, or between two groups of government troops. The result is 6 to 10 dead police officers, and 3 dead "volunteers".

At this point about 2000 locals showed up, in small groups, by the police station. Large human walls surrounded the Kiev forces, who then opened fire on the civilians. After this the Kiev forces fell back from the city, losing a BMP-2 to the crowd in the process.

Reinforcements from Donetsk didn't make it into the city, instead they went to a local National Guard unit, disarming them, and claiming over 100 assault rifles. Gun shops in the city have been looted, and at this point it looks like Mariupol' with be under rebel control.

Colonel Cassad -

Rebel ATGM in Slavyansk.

jerry24_it:

Photos out of Kramatorsk.

jerry24_it:
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/70834.html

A Red Cross worker captured by separatists in Donetsk has been released. Interesting, I didn't even know one was captured.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Çàõâà÷åííûõ â Äîíåöêå ñîòðóäíèêîâ Êðàñíîãî êðåñòà îòïóñòèëè

 

[swerve]

There are a few points one can take issue with. For example the current government are themselves revolutionaries that took up arms and seized government buildings in Kiev......

Revolutionaries supported by most of the Rada, which gives them a degree of legitimacy that the entirely self-appointed leaders in the east lack. And they've always planned to hold a national election as soon as possible, while the rebels in the east seem determined to prevent that election from going ahead.

There's a big question here. What are the pro-Russian rebels fighting for that they could not (assuming they have the popular support they claim) have won in the election? If their leaders do, as they say, represent the wishes of the people, why not stand in the election? If their claims are true, they'd sweep the board in Donetsk, Luhansk, etc. Their armed supporters would guarantee there'd be no rigging of the election against them. With that electoral mandate plus guns, ,they'd be in an unassailable position. Western countries would be telling W. Ukrainian leaders they have to negotiate, & make major concessions.

So why didn't they do it? The obvious answer is that they don't actually believe that they are as popular as they claim. They think that in the privacy of the polling booth, many people who are currently keeping their heads down would vote against them, & they'd not be elected in enough numbers to be taken seriously.

Hence the rushed referendum, held under their guns, & with no outside check on the voting or the count.

 

[chris]

Revolutionaries supported by most of the Rada, which gives them a degree of legitimacy that the entirely self-appointed leaders in the east lack. And they've always planned to hold a national election as soon as possible, while the rebels in the east seem determined to prevent that election from going ahead.

I've always wondered about that argument. I have no idea about the Ukrainian constitution but if the majority of the parliament was against the former president, couldn't they simply do something about it? Most constitutions allow ways to take down a bad president if the parliament is against him. Can someone more versed in Ukrainian law clarify this?

 

[Waylander]

They die vote him out if his office, so they've done what they could do, although I have read different explanations about this action being covered by the constitution or not.

 

[harms]

«

There is an interesting interview with one of Ukraines NG battalion commanders.
My russian or english is not very good, but I will try to translate as much as I can. Maybe Feanor can provide more accurate translation.

What he is saying that anti- Ukraine sentiment in civilians were artificially cultivated by local politicians from former presidents Yanukovics party. He says that most of the separatists are just criminals who are controled by people who saw an opportunity to grab a piece for them selves from a weakened Ukraine. And that there is only a small part of Russian direct involvement in the East of Ukraine and that he believes there will be no invasion by Russia.
When asked about why Ukrainian armed forces performs so poorly he says that his battalion have enough forces to deal with the separatists, bu they lack the right equipment and training for urban combat, that's why all he can do for now is to drive vehicles thru city's to show presence.
He says that there are paid provocateurs who drive around region and scares people by telling them that Ukrainian army and Right Sector is coming to kill everyone so they must set up road blocks.
He also tells that local law enforcement is corrupt, demoralized and can not be trusted. He mentions that on one instance when his battalion where besieged by separatist protesters he asked local law enforcement for help but they did nothing and were just waiting for someone to get shot, so he had to call in helicopter gunships to scare off crowds.
He also mentions incompetence and lack of orders from his superiors. In one case in Lugansk military police fortified local administration building and fought off separatists, but then were ordered out of the city, so separatists took the building anyway.
He also says that there is no central government right now. There is a network of Ukrainian patriots consisting of some members of government, MPs, military, SBU and volunteers. And there is a network of bad guys consisting of the same ingredients.
He also mentions that its possible that Ukraine will lose these regions.

 

[wittmanace]

They die vote him out if his office, so they've done what they could do, although I have read different explanations about this action being covered by the constitution or not.

From what I gather, they needed 75 percent but got 72.8 percent.

 

[Feanor]

Revolutionaries supported by most of the Rada, which gives them a degree of legitimacy that the entirely self-appointed leaders in the east lack. And they've always planned to hold a national election as soon as possible, while the rebels in the east seem determined to prevent that election from going ahead.

One the one hand you're right. On the other hand the Rada is a snakes nest of oligarchs, corrupt ex-bureaucrats, and various unpleasant figures. Their own legitimacy rests on very shaky ground.

But the bigger issue is this. The current government is essentially a temporary one. Their ONLY job is to keep the seat warm while the elections come around. Instead they try to pass a controversial language law, borrow tons of money from the IMF under unpleasant conditions, mobilize the military, create new paramilitaries with little training and questionable purpose, sign major foreign policy agreements, pick a fight with one of their biggest trading partners, use the military and paramilitary to disperse demonstrators repeatedly escalating the situation, significantly reduce pensions for retired people, and generally run the economy into the ground. For a government with an extremely limited mandate (if any) that's an awful lot to be doing.

There's a big question here. What are the pro-Russian rebels fighting for that they could not (assuming they have the popular support they claim) have won in the election?

I don't know that. They probably don't know that. The discourse surrounding this, from the rebels' side, has lost touch with reality. They insist that the Kiev government is a fascist junta. The Kiev government then obliges them by sending troops into civilian areas that proceed to antagonize the locals, kill innocent bystanders, and generally create the impression that they are indeed the junta that the rebels claim they are.

If their leaders do, as they say, represent the wishes of the people, why not stand in the election?

Two things. One, after Yanukovich they won't win an election. He was just too horrible. Two, many of them don't believe in Ukrainian elections any more. I've repeatedly come across this argument from the pro-rebels posters on Russian blogs and forums that the east had a president elected, Yanukovich, and the west of the country simply kicked him out of office using violence. Where's the guarantee that won't happen again?

If their claims are true, they'd sweep the board in Donetsk, Luhansk, etc. Their armed supporters would guarantee there'd be no rigging of the election against them. With that electoral mandate plus guns, ,they'd be in an unassailable position. Western countries would be telling W. Ukrainian leaders they have to negotiate, & make major concessions.

The elections aren't for the Rada, and they aren't for local governors. The elections are for the president. Even if they sweep the board in Donetsk, Lugansk, and Kharkov, they will lose the national level. But the bigger problem is that they have no candidate, no party, and no platform. How can they win ANY elections? These guys are not some centrally organized group with beliefs, ideas, and goals.

So why didn't they do it? The obvious answer is that they don't actually believe that they are as popular as they claim. They think that in the privacy of the polling booth, many people who are currently keeping their heads down would vote against them, & they'd not be elected in enough numbers to be taken seriously.

Hence the rushed referendum, held under their guns, & with no outside check on the voting or the count.

Well the current referendum is basically a clown show. I don't think we should even take it seriously. It's symbolic more then practical. Nevermind the guns or the count check, they simply don't have physical control over the territory for which the referendum is supposedly being held. In other words they physically can't hold the referendum in all the towns and cities.

 

[Feanor]

Sorry for the double post, but I felt the need to separate this. Swerve consider this. The longer this conflict continues, the more bystanders and innocents will be killed, predominantly by government troops (they're better armed, and have heavy weapons). The more places troops show up, the more locals will get angry. As this drags on the stupidity and incompetence of the Ukrainian government will turn more and more of the population against them. So the longer the rebels can drag this out, the bigger their support base gets.

Look at what just happened in Mariupol'. The city had a fairly anemic anti-Maydan movement, that had little support. The place wasn't thrilled with the euro-Maydan, or in favor of joining NATO. But the rebels had no real hold there. Then some ragtag National Guard enter the city, wearing random clothing and various uniforms, shoot up the police station (because the police refused to disperse the anti-Maydan protest), kill a bunch of bystanders in the process, and they get chased out of the city by an angry mob. Now there are rebels driving around the city, one local National Guard unit fled giving the rebels access to armored vehicles, another one was forcibly disarmed by rebel reinforcements from Donetsk, and the city is waving Donetsk Republic flags. In other words the Kiev government has just created a new rebel stronghold through their own actions.

And the fact that they let Right Sector run loose in the east is going to cost them too.

 

[overlander]

Ukrainian para military men from the neo nazi rigth sector groups sended by Kiev authorities shooting and killing unarmed civilian people in eastern Ukraine today

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtx-JkMwKWU