Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Update time.

The attack on the Soledar checkpoint was carried out by the National Guard, who arrived by helicopter.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñåïàðàòèñòû ñîîáùàþò îá àòàêå íà èõ áëîêïîñò â Äîíåöêîé îáëàñòè

The Swedish OSCE observer has been released by the rebels. He has diabetes and this is the reason cited for the release.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñëàâÿíñêå îñâîáîäèëè îäíîãî íàáëþäàòåëÿ ÎÁÑÅ - áîëüíîãî äèàáåòîì øâåäà

A press conference with the detained OSCE mission.

"Axel Schneider: We've been here two days. We've been treated well. We are guests of Ponomarev, not prisoners. In the beginning we were in a cellar, now we're in a well lit room. Everyone is healthy.

Ponomarev: We will not release the mission. We're in a combat zone. I'm worried about their safety."

Personal comment: are you f*cking serious?

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZOjxOtbUMM#t=42"]преÑÑ-конференциÑ. оицеры Ñтран нато прибывшие Донецк под видом миÑÑии ОБСЕ чаÑÑ‚ÑŒ 2 27,04,2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8bjXQOowgs"]преÑÑ-конференциÑ. офицеры Ñтран нато прибывшие Донецк под видом миÑÑии ОБСЕ 27,04,2014 - YouTube[/nomedia]

Meanwhile 3 SBU officers have been captured by the rebels. They were armed and resisted capture.

Colonel Cassad -
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêîå ÒÂ: ïîä Ñëàâÿíñêîì çàäåðæàëè òðåõ "äèâåðñàíòîâ" èç ÑÁÓ
u_96:

Also in Donetsk, the local TV center was taken by giant crowd with demands to stop airing Ukrainian TV channels. It's likely the locals were infuriated with being portrayed as "terrorists". Note the crowd in the second and third pics.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1562498.html

A pro-Ukraine rally turned violent in Kharkov, when the soccer clubs, and Right Sector activists got into a fight with pro-Russian demonstrators. There are wounded, and massive property damage, with relatively little done by the police to control the events.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1562917.html

Note the car smashed because of the Georgian ribbons on it.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Ð*агулÑтина в Харькове беÑнуетÑÑ

In Novokramatorsk the local factory has two broken down engineer vehicles, on a tank chassis. They've agreed to hand it over to the militia, if the militia can fix them and get them moving again.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - ÐовокраматорÑкий завод поделилÑÑ Ñ Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ñ†Ð°Ð¼Ð¸ техникой Ð´Ð»Ñ Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð¼Ð½Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ

Crimea denies that Ukraine shut off water, merely restricted the quantities being supplied. Also the Crimean government says they have internal water reserves.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðûì îïðîâåðã ïåðåêðûòèå Óêðàèíîé ïîäà÷è âîäû íà ïîëóîñòðîâ è íàøåë ñâîè çàïàñû

Meanwhile a nice photos of the anti-tank moat dug by Ukraine near the borders, and then a video of what happens when a tank runs into a moat of that type.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Танковое

 

[Feanor]

The OSCE mission was definitely detained. Members of it have been shown to the press, & talked on camera. The report of Ukrainian officers pretending to be OSCE was either sloppy journalism, or misinformation.

Yes, I've written about it in the next update post. I also have a press conference with the detained OSCE members (one of them has even been released). I'll type up a transcript of the conference soon.

EDIT: Too lazy, sorry. Videos posted though. They do speak in english.

 

[Waylander]

Presenting the OSCE prisoners like this, forcing them to give these laughable statements and without any intention of letting them go will not bring the seperatists many brownie points.
At least outside of Russia and Eastern Ukraine...

The whole incident casts a long and dark shadow over the negotiations and will make it even harder to achieve some sort of progress.

Our President and Minister of Foreign Affairs reacted rather harsh to this.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Our President and Minister of Foreign Affairs reacted rather harsh to this.

Sure, but what are they going to do about it? So far sanctions have been relatively limited, are they going to institute biting measures? If they don't, politicians can protest all they like - the gunmen and their Russian puppetmasters won't listen to words.

 

[Waylander]

The resistance of countries like Germany or Italy to harder sanctions is going to get weakened by stuff like that.

Not that I believe that harder economic sanctions will come right now but some more stuff like that or when the current hostage situation turns into a bloody quagmire and it might actually happen.

 

[Twain]

I could also argue that a 9% response rate in the US yields a sample size (about 11 million?) way larger than the one obtained in Ukraine with a 69% response rate (with 1200 respondents), thus mucking up the results from the Gallup study...

...But I digress, a lot.

We need to get back on topic but you are confusing potential sample size and response rate, two very different things. All that matters is that the sample used is random, representative of the population and large enough to be statistically valid. I'm trying to not be rude but your argument above is just nonsense from a statistical standpoint.

Edit: I did forget one thing here, the pew response rates are worldwide, not just from the US.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The rebels want to exchange the OSCE mission for the captured "deputy people's mayor" of Slavyansk.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Çàäåðæàííîãî ÑÁÓ çàìåñòèòåëÿ "íàðîäíîãî ìýðà" Ñëàâÿíñêà ñåïàðàòèñòû õîòÿò îáìåíÿòü íà çàõâà÷åííûõ íàáëþäàòåëåé îò ÎÁÑÅ

In Konstantinovka village, in Donbass, uniformed masked men with guns have taken over the police station. They've made no demands, and instead said that they're there to prepare for the independence referendum in Donetsk. If you look at the photos it appears that the armed camouflaged men get along quite well with the locals (they may be locals) and that some unarmed and uncamouflaged (mostly) men are helping them build the barricades.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íåèçâåñòíûå ñ îðóæèåì ïðèøëè â îòäåë ìèëèöèè äîíåöêîé Êîíñòàíòèíîâêè. ÌÂÄ Óêðàèíû ñ÷èòàåò, ÷òî ýòî íå çàõâàò
tutuskania:

There is some very good footage, taken by famous/infamous Vice News correspondent. He interviews the militia in Slavyansk briefly. The significance of this material is that it lets me make a (very) educated guess about the nature of the militias and the reason for their uniformity. I think that the militia are volunteer groups from Russia and Ukraine, who are part of the Cossack organizations. This explains their relatively organized appearance, and the commercially available camouflage, as well as the widespread Georgian ribbons. This is the first time I can positively say that we have organized Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine.

jerry24_it:

The SBU confirms that the rebels to indeed have 3 of their officers captive.

Ð’ Службе БезопаÑноÑти Украины подтвердили факт захвата троих Ñвоих Ñотрудников в СлавÑнÑке

In Artemovsk a pro-Russian large protest was held near the military warehouses storing old firearms and munitions.

Ð’ ÐртемовÑке митингующие пыталиÑÑŒ «запугать» украинÑких военноÑлужащих

An assassination attempt on the mayor of Kharkov has failed. The mayor is wounded.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà ìýðà Õàðüêîâà Ãåííàäèÿ Êåðíåñà ñîâåðøåíî ïîêóøåíèå

A Donetsk businessman has donated two BRDMs to the Ukrainian Border Guard. This is not the first time business has donated (or "donated") to the Ukrainian force wielding establishment in recent weeks.

Донецкий предприниматель подарил УкраинÑким пограничникам два БРДМ

Ukraine claims they now have a functional air defense system near their Russian border.

Минобороны Украины на южных границах привело ПВО в полную боевую готовноÑÑ‚ÑŒ

Russian Railroads are now selling single tickets to Crimea. The ticket includes a train trip, a ferry ride, and a bus ride.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÐÆÄ íà÷èíàåò ïðîäàæó åäèíîãî áèëåòà â Êðûì, à î÷åâèäöû óæå æàëóþòñÿ íà ïàðîìû

RT is not the best source, but they're not providing us with anything special when they report on the continuing crisis of the Ukrainian economy. Trade with Russiadown by 20%. Metallurgy by 17%, machine building by 11.

http://russian.rt.com/article/29669

And it looks like the May 9th Victory Day parade in Kiev is canceled. Not the smartest move given the circumstances.

 

In Zaporozhye the courts have banned all public demonstrations, except the euro-Maydan. Right before a very important national election.

 Çàïîðîæüå çàïðåòèëè âñå ìèòèíãè, êðîìå Ìàéäàíà

Romanian troops have been seen moving towards the Ukrainian border.

Ð ÑƒÐ¼Ñ‹Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑ‚Ñгивает к Украине Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð´ÑƒÑˆÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ обороны и артиллерию

 

[Feanor]

And let's not even joke about submarines...

Speaking of submarines. Fun fact, to provide Baltic fleet ships with anti-submarine warfare training, they have to temporarily move diesel-electric subs from the Northern Fleet. Because there aren't any working ones in the Baltic Fleet.

Флот открытого океана: Ð¢Ñ€ÐµÑ‚ÑŒÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¿Ñ‹Ñ‚ÐºÐ° - "Секреты" МиноÐороны: "МагнитогорÑк" на Балтике

 

[stojo]

Which Ukrainian cities are now under the controll of the local insurgants?

 

[Just Some Guy]

Which Ukrainian cities are now under the controll of the local insurgants?

all of the cities are controlled by local insurgents.

it is really a question of do these insurgents support the coup-appointed Kiev government or are they opposed to it.



and to answer some of the earlier comments about the US's weak sanctions: the US has declared that the sanctions will be multilateral between the US and the EU. that is to say, one in - all in.
the problem is, not everyone in the EU can agree on what they want to sanction. some countries refuse to sanction Russian gas. others refuse to sanction Russian commodities.
in the end, the US and the EU can only agree on sanctioning a limited list of individuals.

 

[Feanor]

Which Ukrainian cities are now under the controll of the local insurgants?

The biggest areas are Lugansk region and Donbass region. Also it depends on what you mean by control. It's on and off in Kharkov and Nikolaev.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

In Lugansk a pro-Kiev militia, being trained by MVD, has been dispersed by the locals, and their leader is being held by the Lugansk militia.

Ð’ ЛуганÑке похитили командира Ñпециального Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð´ÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼Ð¸Ð»Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸Ð¸
http://azlok.livejournal.com/955270.html

Also in Lugansk, a massive pro-Russian demonstration seized the government buildings again. The local police is once again doing nothing, and the police armories are being looted. All of this is "preparation" for a local referendum about the status of Lugansk region.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1565689.html

According to this source, a National Guard unit of 150 was in Lugansk, was blockaded by locals, and agreed their weapons to go back to the armory.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/conflicts/5187-1.html

In Donetsk a pro-Ukraine rally was beaten by a pro-Russian rally. Commentators speculate that this may be a "revenge" for the beating of a pro-Russian protest in Kharkov.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Äîíåöêå, ãäå âîîðóæåííûå ëþäè çàõâàòèëè òåëåâûøêó, ìèòèíã çà åäèíñòâî Óêðàèíû çàêîí÷èëñÿ ïîáîèùåì. Åñòü çàëîæíèêè

Acting president of Ukraine says that Ukrainian law enforcement and forcewielders in the east are unable and unwilling to do their job. What a surprise...

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Турчинов о милиции Юго-ВоÑтока

Russian Minister of Defense, Shoygu, claims Russian troops have been moved away from the border. NATO says they see no evidence of that.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Øîéãó ñîîáùèë ãëàâå Ïåíòàãîíà, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ óæå îòâåëà âîéñêà îò óêðàèíñêîé ãðàíèöû
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â ÍÀÒÎ íå óâèäåëè ïðèçíàêîâ "îòâîäà ðîññèéñêèõ âîéñê" îò óêðàèíñêèõ ãðàíèö, íåñìîòðÿ íà çàâåðåíèÿ ÐÔ

Aeroflot reports that there are problems with GPS signals over the territory of Ukraine, comparing the situation to US blocking of GPS signals over Georgia in 2008.

*
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - "Отключение" GPS над Украиной

Also the passport situation is interesting in Crimea. This old lady has kept her Ukrainian citizenship, but gotten the Russian one, making it easy for her to travel across the border from Crimea into Ukraine, and then again into Russia near Kharkov. Earlier it was claimed that Crimeans would have to choose one or the other.

zyalt:

 

[stojo]

The biggest areas are Lugansk region and Donbass region. Also it depends on what you mean by control. It's on and off in Kharkov and Nikolaev.

What I meant is control over the government buildings (or at least one of them).

Based on what I was able to find insurgents where at some point in control of the government buildings in following places:
Kharkhiv, Lugansk, Soledar, Artemivsk, Gorilovka, Yenakijeve, Torez, Makiivka,, Konstantinovka, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Ekcluding Kharkhiv and Luhansk, all of these places belong to a rather narrow area of eastern part of the Donetsk region, which I find a rather odd...

So this might mean two things.

Either this is a simply a contested region, which is, for that particular reason, most reported on, while the territories to the east are pro-Russian enough, so much so that no government buildings takeover was needed at all (excluding Luhansk), or this is actually a pro-Russian patch of territory, while in the rest of the eastern Ukraine, pro-Russians are less organised, or don't have enough local support.

 

[Feanor]

What I meant is control over the government buildings (or at least one of them).

Based on what I was able to find insurgents where at some point in control of the government buildings in following places:
Kharkhiv, Lugansk, Soledar, Artemivsk, Gorilovka, Yenakijeve, Torez, Makiivka,, Konstantinovka, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Ekcluding Kharkhiv and Luhansk, all of these places belong to a rather narrow area of eastern part of the Donetsk region, which I find a rather odd...

So this might mean two things.

Either this is a simply a contested region, which is, for that particular reason, most reported on, while the territories to the east are pro-Russian enough, so much so that no government buildings takeover was needed at all (excluding Luhansk), or this is actually a pro-Russian patch of territory, while in the rest of the eastern Ukraine, pro-Russians are less organised, or don't have enough local support.

Unfortunately we have too little info. Protest wave and temporary seizures of government buildings occurred in a lot of places, but only the big ones get coverage. Ukrainian media has been doing an awful job of covering the crisis. Foreign media has been worse. As you might have noticed I compile my info from social media sites, blogs, etc.

Also not all seizures of government buildings are the same. For example in iirc Seversk the Donetsk militia showed up and the local government decided to cooperate with them. The cooperation consisted of setting up a "defense" near the government buildings (a crappy makeshift barricade) and to remove the Ukrainian flag, and replace it with the Donetsk Republic one. That's about it. The defense is supposedly manned by locals. It's unclear whether there is much genuine local support. On the other hand in Nikolaev there was a huge pro-Russia protest which was violently suppressed before they could take any government buildings. So by your logic in Seversk there is a strong pro-Russian sentiment, while in Nikolaev there isn't any, but in reality the situation would probably be reversed.

There will be a lot of info coming out of Lugansk and Donetsk about conflicts and clashes with the government because those provinces are in open revolt, and the whole situation is snowballing. There could be just as much pro-Russian sentiment in other provinces, but because the situation is not as bad, there is less going on.

Here's an alleged map of government buildings seized.

http://i.imgur.com/wlGSPQQ.jpg

 

[GermanHerman]

I must admit that I had to think of the Nato Gladio stay behind network when I saw the pro russian militias form in such a fast time.

Are there any actualy facts on a russian pendant to the gladio network? How are these cossack groups organised which are present in ukraine? Do they have any direct link to the russian military?

 

[stojo]

So by your logic in Seversk there is a strong pro-Russian sentiment, while in Nikolaev there isn't any, but in reality the situation would probably be reversed.

Well I mentioned in my post, that the fact that there is no government buildings seasurs does not necesserily mean that there are no local pro-Russian support, since in some cases local officials supported pro-Russian option on their own. I'm just trying to make some sense of the conflict so far, and putting things to the map helps sometimes.

 

[Feanor]

Well I mentioned in my post, that the fact that there is no government buildings seasurs does not necesserily mean that there are no local pro-Russian support, since in some cases local officials supported pro-Russian option on their own. I'm just trying to make some sense of the conflict so far, and putting things to the map helps sometimes.

I agree and I'd love to have an accurate map of anti-Maydan demonstrations with sizes. But I don't have one. The problem is that media coverage is bad, social media is spotty, and I have a finite amount of time to devote to this.

If you'd like to contribute research or information, feel free. Everyone's welcome to. That's why this is a forum and not a blog. Maybe if we get enough people, we can get a good picture. Or at least a better one.

 

[2007yellow430]

Just saw in Yahoo that the US is claiming they have been monitoring (spying) on Russia orchestrating this. Here is the source:

Kerry: U.S. Taped Moscow

If true, very interesting.

Art

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Photos from the recent events in Lugansk.

tutuskania:
u_96:
u_96:

Acting president of Ukraine, Turchinov, mentions a possibility for reforming or replacing the police personnel in the east.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóð÷èíîâ ñîáèðàåòñÿ óâîëèòü "áåñïîìîùíûõ" ñèëîâèêîâ â âîñòî÷íûõ ðåãèîíàõ Óêðàèíû è çàñóäèòü ïðåäàòåëåé

And there is a large scale military exercise planned inside of Kiev, on the night of April 30th to May 1st. I wonder what they'll be training for there. Meanwhile the Ukrainian Army remains concentrated near Russia's borders.

Ð’ ночь на 1 Ð¼Ð°Ñ Ð² Киев введут военную технику
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àðìèÿ Óêðàèíû ïðèâåäåíà â ïîëíóþ áîåâóþ ãîòîâíîñòü â ñâÿçè ñ óãðîçîé íàïàäåíèÿ Ðîññèè, çàÿâèë Òóð÷èíîâ

Meanwhile the current Ukrainian government blames the state of the military on corruption and illegal sell-offs of military equipment. Because you know, if it weren't for that, there would totally be a well maintained fleet of vehicles, and well trained personnel for them. Despite the total lack of money for the above...

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãåíïðîêóðîð Óêðàèíû ðàññêàçàë î çëîóïîòðåáëåíèÿõ Ìèíîáîðîíû ñ ïðîäàæåé èìóùåñòâà àðìèè, "óõîäÿùèõ êîðíÿìè" âî âðåìåíà Þùåíêî

Territorial defense btlns are being formed in Ukraine, and a lot of police officials have been replaced. As it stands the first such btlns, formed in Lugansk, was scattered by rebel militia coupled with locals.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà Óêðàèíå íà÷àëè ðåôîðìèðîâàòü ñèëîâûå âåäîìñòâà è ñîçäàþò ñïåöáàòàëüîíû òåððèòîðèàëüíîé îáîðîíû

Romania declares an increase in defense spending, in relation to the Ukrainian crisis.

Ð*ÑƒÐ¼Ñ‹Ð½Ð¸Ñ ÑƒÐ²ÐµÐ»Ð¸Ñ‡Ð¸Ð²Ð°ÐµÑ‚ ронные раÑходы в ÑвÑзи Ñ ÑобытиÑми в Украине

EDIT: Something is going on in Kiev right now. There are camouflaged men in front of the Cabinet of Ministers, and armored vehicles have been sighted.

There is an anti-corruption protests there too by the auto-Maydan and the Maydan Self-Defense militia.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1282552.html

 

[overlander]

Government of KIEV have decided to arm the neo nazis of right sector And ultra nationalist groups. This the government that western countries support.


17:16 GMT:
The headquarters of the radical Right Sector group in Dnepropetrovsk has ordered a “complete mobilization,” urging supporters to arrive at the government offices Ministry department “fully battle-equipped,” says a Right Sector-distributed statement, as quoted by Itar-Tass.

“The Interior Ministry has promised to arm the militia and to provide them with vehicles for relocation to the region’s eastern border [with the Donetsk region],” the statement says.