NZ has economies of scale issues when it comes to jet strategic transport. The comparitively small NZDF size and budget, as well as ad-hoc nature of tasking in the strategic airlift role, troop transport and VIP role means that it is an inefficent use of resources. The strategic lift role (allegedly) going to an aircraft that can do both Stratlift and Taclift. This leaves only a few hundred hours per annum for TT and VIP. An amount not sustainable for even 1 aircraft. I should note that the A400M can conduct a A2AR via hose and drouge secondary role if operational support is required. This eliminates any requirement of a MRTT in the RNZAF fleet. A single dry lease B737-800 airframe in a standard 2 class commercial configuration that can soak up the TT/VIP taskings with supporting MAOT role and flight conversion role for 5Sqd pilots is probably the solution as it can be maintained alongside the envisaged P-8 fleet.
A billion dollar spend up on three KC30's is not going to happen NG. Our Friendlies and the NZGovt want us contributing in ISR & SpecFor at the teir 1 level. KC's would kill off budget wise a couple of P-8's or A400M's or mean that the Navy would be down to a single Frigate replacement and no chance of a capable CY replacement which will really underpin F2035. Not to mention if Triton was/is on the cards. If a supplementary billion dollars were luckily found it would go elsewhere and enhance what we are either already doing, planning or require as fundamental outputs. There are better force multipliers for our regional mates and other than the MRTT. Question: If you have a choice of 3 Tritons + Sat to plug into BAMS alongside our 4 P-8's or 3 KC-30 MRTT's if that lucky billion came our way - what would you go for?
An argument could be made for just a single MRTT instead of a dry leased 737-800. However the concept is still decimated on cost / capability as a dry leased B73 is a fraction of a KC-30, the leased B73 can still do the 400 odd hours of annual flying hours TT/VIP. A role that is not worth spending the addition quarter billion plus when we even know that if the RAAF were really at a pinch A2A wise a couple of A400M could provide a temporary cover role.
Mr C (and NG),
In the spirit of ANZAC I hope you both don't mind me putting my 2 cents worth into the NZ Air Force debate.
With both our countries in the process of preparing new DWP's, maybe it's time that both our respective countries sat down and made a strong (and serious) effort to see where we could have common ground (and I think there is a lot), and how we could end up with capabilities that satisfied both our individual needs but also the shared needs and for our shared areas of interest (and concern).
The type of capabilities and systems that the RAAF is going to operate over the next 20-30 years seems to have been pretty well sorted and selected, so maybe NZ's decisions could complement and enhance those decisions.
With the RAAF planning to operate 8-12 P-8A's, an order or around 5-6 P-8A's by NZ would not only compliment but enhance both our capabilities in our respective areas of responsibility and surely there would be significant benefits, in regard to support and sustainment, for our respective nations.
The RAAF also appears to be on the path to operating 6-7 Tritons, on the other hand for NZ, Triton is probably a 'nice to have', but the issue of being able to afford and not affect the loss of another capability is a significant issue.
Maybe the solution, if considered desirable, is for NZ to 'contribute' to the cost and maintenance of, say, an additional 2 airframes to be based and maintained in Australia for shared use.
My thinking on Triton is sort of like what Australia has done with the US in regard to the WGS Satellites, we have paid for the full cost of the 6th satellite but in return we have access to the full network, so why not an 'ANZAC' force of Tritons?
In regard to air lift, the selection of say 4-6 A400M's (with A2AR capability) would not only be a significant boost to NZ but would also provide a valuable capability that sits between the RAAF's C-17's and C-130's, plus the ability to refuel the Super Hornet and Growler's of the RAAF in a future joint operation, and maybe down the track when the RAAF C-130J's come up for replacement the A400M's could also be considered as their appropriate replacement too.
(When it comes to A2AR by the KC-30A's I believe the RAAF is still 3 or 4 airframes short, which is an argument all on it's own too!)
Also on airlift, an appropriate number of NZ C-27J's would also be of great value and benefit to both our nations, same aircraft as the RAAF, more benefits for support and sustainment.
In regard to VIP needs, if all of the above happened, maybe the RAAF could also accommodate NZ's VIP needs or I'm sure Air NZ would be more than happy to provide aircraft for when VIP airlift was required.
Is there a way that both our nations can have our cake and eat it too? Maybe there is!
Food for thought? (no pun intended!)
Cheers,