Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

So many militias being formed; it's kind of scary. How exactly did Svoboda get into the state organs and so pervasively?

I'm not sure what happening particularly. I suspect they're not pervasively in the state organs, they merely sit at the top. Quite a few of the issues they've faced prove that the new government has partial control over the state apparatus, at best.

The militias are the scariest part of the whole thing. If Russia invades, they are likely to scatter - rapidly. But if Russia doesn't invade, what will they do? Right Sector so far has engaged in organized crime. The rest are too new to tell. But it doesn't seem likely they'll disband. If anything they'll get stronger. Even nominally only the National Guard is subordinate to Kiev. Then of course there are the pro-Russian militias. Rubezh in Sevastopol is likely to either go official, or get disbanded, now that Crimea is annexed. But others exist. And after the murder of pro-Russian activists in Kharkov they're likely to multiply and possibly take up arms. And if the National Guard violently put down a pro-Russian protest in the East, or get into an all out fight with a pro-Russian militia...

 

[LogisticsGuy]

The info below comes from an Art Cashin interview on the King World News blog. I did not find where he got those figures.

My Blog

. •80% of Crimea’s water supply comes from Ukraine

*
. •80% of Crimea's electricity comes from the Ukraine

*
. •65% of Crimea's gas supply comes from the Ukraine

*
. •65% of Crimea's budget funding comes from the Ukraine


*In the fascinating map of Crimea below It shows a large canal coming from the Dneper river in Ukraine down the isthmus and into what looks like an agricultural area in Crimea. That looks to be very vulnerable.

klymenko.data-tec.net/Other_World/Ukraine.Crimea.htm

Bigger image here Map of Crimea. Detailed 3D map of Crimean peninsula



 

[John Fedup]

The info below comes from an Art Cashin interview on the King World News blog. I did not find where he got those figures.

My Blog

. •80% of Crimea’s water supply comes from Ukraine

*
. •80% of Crimea's electricity comes from the Ukraine

*
. •65% of Crimea's gas supply comes from the Ukraine

*
. •65% of Crimea's budget funding comes from the Ukraine


*In the fascinating map of Crimea below It shows a large canal coming from the Dneper river in Ukraine down the isthmus and into what looks like an agricultural area in Crimea. That looks to be very vulnerable.

klymenko.data-tec.net/Other_World/Ukraine.Crimea.htm

Bigger image here Map of Crimea. Detailed 3D map of Crimean peninsula



I guess the Russians will look after the fourth item but the other three items do seem to be a problem for them. The question is will Kiev dare to restrict the other three? Would the West support these cut-offs? I am guessing no.

 

[Feanor]

The last Ukrainian military unit has been taken, in Feodosiya. There may have been fighting, but so far no casualties have been reported. Ukrainian Marines were trucked out of the facility in hand cuffs. It looks like the conflict broke out over the weapons and equipment that the Marines wanted to take with them, out of Crimea.

Colonel Cassad -
u_96:
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. ФеодоÑийÑкие морпехи - вÑÑ‘

The last Ukrainian Naval ship, a BDK, has also been taken.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1504339.html

And now, finally, Ukraine has ordered its troops to leave Crimea. Now that there aren't any there.

http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/24/678690.html

Russia declares Crimea a special economic zone, and will create a state corporation to promote its development. And Crimea switches to the rouble, though the grivna will be accepted until 2016. It looks like Crimea can expect connection to the Russian power grid, through the Kerch strait.

*
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïîä áóäóùóþ ñâîáîäíóþ ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ çîíó â Êðûìó ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ñîçäàñò ãîñêîðïîðàöèþ
Colonel Cassad -

Also ~200 refugees are coming into Crimea from continental Ukraine every day. The numbers aren't very high, but they could increase. Especially among retirees, who would benefit from Russian pensions.

http://vz.ru/society/2014/3/24/678679.html

Also, the Russian head of the MVD has promised to retain Berkut as a unit, and to increase their paychecks, in Russian service.

http://newsru.com/russia/24mar2014/berkutmvd.html

Meanwhile defense contracts between Russia and Ukraine are still being delivered on, namely the gas-turbines for Russian 11356 Frigates.

ÀÐÌÑ-ÒÀÑÑ

 

[nkvd]

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has met troops in Crimea and inspected military bases. He is the most senior Russian official to visit the region since it was annexed by Moscow.Mr Shoigu also rewarded the former head of Ukraine's navy, Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky (one the Ukrainian officers to switch allegiances before the annexation) with the deputy command of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

 

[King Wally]

As it stands right at present what remains of the Ukrainian Navy? Is there anything actually left in their hands right now?

 

[Feanor]

As it stands right at present what remains of the Ukrainian Navy? Is there anything actually left in their hands right now?

The Saygadichniy "frigate" (Soviet-era large coast guard patrol vessel), a few support ships, and some coast guard boats. So basically - nothing.

Meanwhile the situation in Ukraine is deteriorating. A Right Sector leadership figure was assassinated hitman style. They also kidnapped 6 other people, including 3 other Right Sector activists. Earlier Sashko Beliy (the man assassinated) himself claimed that he was about to be killed by his own party and threatened to hang the Minister of Internal Affairs (a Svoboda member) by his legs "like a pig".

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èñòî÷íèêè: â Ðîâíî óáèò ðàçûñêèâàåìûé Ðîññèåé óêðàèíñêèé áîåâèê Ìóçû÷êî (Ñàøêî Áèëûé)
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1505444.html

There was also a shooting in Kiev, against 3 Euro-Maydan Self-Defense activists, by unknown men. 3 were shot, and hospitalized, when the police showed up the unknown men opened fire again, then fled.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Киев. Про ружье на Ñтене.

Also, unknown men wearing UPA uniforms robbed passengers with Russian passports on trains. They took money, and jewelry.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1504113.html

And there is info that the acting MinDef of Ukraine will be replaced, because of his actions amounting to treason. The info is unofficial, but it would certainly be a smart move of the Kiev government to take the MoD away from Svoboda.

Colonel Cassad -

Maybe someone is cleaning house, amid the escalating chaos.

A western Private Military Contractor (Greyston Ltd.) is supposedly getting a contract to deal with pro-Russian protesters in the east.

http://vz.ru/news/2014/3/25/678766.html

 

[mAIOR]

Regarding the shooting of Sashko Beliy, the following article states that the Ukranian police forces killed him in self defense after he ran and fired at the officers on scene. They don't mention however why was he handcuffed and had his shirt torn (as if someone was making sure he was not wearing a bullet proof vest).

Things in the Ukraine seem to be going south faster by the day.

APA - Sashko Beliy killed during special raid of law enforcers

They are not even smart. They could've tried to pin the blame on Moscow since he was a wanted men both in Russia and the Ukraine. If they officially state that there was police involvement...

 

[RobWilliams]

As it stands right at present what remains of the Ukrainian Navy? Is there anything actually left in their hands right now?

There's a picture of a Ukranian Navy submarine which was spotted transiting Sevastopol with a Russian Navy ensign floating around Twitter.

I'll try find it.

 

[Feanor]

There's a picture of a Ukranian Navy submarine which was spotted transiting Sevastopol with a Russian Navy ensign floating around Twitter.

I'll try find it.

The Ukrainian Navy submarine.

And it's on BMPD.

bmpd -

Regarding the shooting of Sashko Beliy, the following article states that the Ukranian police forces killed him in self defense after he ran and fired at the officers on scene. They don't mention however why was he handcuffed and had his shirt torn (as if someone was making sure he was not wearing a bullet proof vest).

Things in the Ukraine seem to be going south faster by the day.

APA - Sashko Beliy killed during special raid of law enforcers

They are not even smart. They could've tried to pin the blame on Moscow since he was a wanted men both in Russia and the Ukraine. If they officially state that there was police involvement...

Yes it now appears he was killed by police. His hands may have been tied though. And the short range doule-tap to the heart is questionable. There's claims that he committed suicide too.

Either way Right Sector has sworn revenge against Avakov, head of the MVD and a Svoboda member. The same one that Sashko Beliy threatened to hang by his feet.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

While Russian claims were that ~2000 Ukrainian service members wanted to leave Crimea, Ukraine claims the numbers are ~4300. This is out of a total of ~18 000. In other words, even if we take them at their word, that's less then a quarter.

http://newsru.com/russia/25mar2014/armyua.html

Tenyuh, the acting MinDef, has submitted his resignation. "Voluntarily". Rumors of his retirement appeared yesterday.

И. о. миниÑтра обороны Украины Игорь Тенюх подал в отÑтавку

Out of the two btlns of Ukrainian Marines, most elected to stay in Crimea, but out of the rag tag remnants the Ukrainian MoD claims they will form a new brigade of Marines. It will be "the best" Marine Brigade in Ukraine... also the only.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ðа Украине возродÑÑ‚ морÑкую пехоту

Police have begun arresting Right Sector leaders. This comes after we find out that it was the police that killed Sashko Beliy. In other words, it looks like Svoboda is cleaning out Right Sector.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1506243.html

Nine Euro-Maydan members were arrested in Kiev, with their weapons. Two of them had warrants out before this.

ЛОГОВО ÐЕТОЛЕРÐÐТÐОГО СРЕДÐЕВЕКОВОГО МРÐКОБЕСР- Майдауны, пламенный привет! ))))

Meanwhile Ukraine states that if Russia cancels the discounts for gas, Ukraine will ignore it, and continue to pay the lower price. Not sure how that's significant, given that they're not paying any price right now, on account of being broke. It could matter in later negotiations over debt.

 

 

[nkvd]

Here is something interesting from USA Today.
In a column in USA Today Wickham cautions that US leaders who have denounced Russian actions in Crimea and taken the "moral high ground" should look closely at their own country's history.

In 1903 the nation of Panama was carved out of Colombia after the Colombian government rejected a treaty that would have allowed the US to build a canal linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The US fostered an uprising in the province of Panama and sent warships to prevent Colombian re-enforcements from arriving, Wickham writes. Once the independent state of Panama was established, its government quickly approved the canal treaty that Colombia wouldn't sign.

"Panama is in the geopolitical backyard of the USA," Wickham writes. "It's inside America's sphere of influence, just as Crimea is inside Russia's."

"I don't say this to justify the imperialistic behaviour of either superpower, but rather to suggest that it's nothing new. Nor should it be unexpected.

 

[overlander]

Russian tanks movement in Novozybkov-Klimov today, not far from the Ukrainian border

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T71TwvJAJTI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

 

[swerve]

Here is something interesting from USA Today.
In a column in USA Today Wickham cautions that US leaders who have denounced Russian actions in Crimea and taken the "moral high ground" should look closely at their own country's history.

In 1903 the nation of Panama was carved out of Colombia after the Colombian government rejected a treaty that would have allowed the US to build a canal linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The US fostered an uprising in the province of Panama and sent warships to prevent Colombian re-enforcements from arriving, Wickham writes. Once the independent state of Panama was established, its government quickly approved the canal treaty that Colombia wouldn't sign.

"Panama is in the geopolitical backyard of the USA," Wickham writes. "It's inside America's sphere of influence, just as Crimea is inside Russia's."

"I don't say this to justify the imperialistic behaviour of either superpower, but rather to suggest that it's nothing new. Nor should it be unexpected.

Except that 1903 was a long time ago. This is the 21st century, not the beginning of the 20th. We're all supposed to be law-abiding international citizens now, not imperialist land-grabbers. That's soooo last millennium.

 

[Feanor]

Except that 1903 was a long time ago. This is the 21st century, not the beginning of the 20th. We're all supposed to be law-abiding international citizens now, not imperialist land-grabbers. That's soooo last millennium.

Anyways. Updates.

Ukrainian troops are having large scale exercises in Kharkov, as a response to the Russian troop movements.

Ð’ ХарьковÑкой облаÑти проведут ÑƒÑ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² ответ на перемещение к границе военной техники Ð*Ф

Ukrainian sources estimate the value of Ukrainian military goods in Crimea at 1.7 bln USD.

*
Военный дневник Ð˜Ð³Ð¾Ñ€Ñ ÐšÐ¾Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ‡ÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾ - Оценка украинÑкого военного имущеÑтва, оÑтавшегоÑÑ Ð½Ð° территории Крыма

Ukrainian sources claim that Ukraine is moving military equipment out of Ukraine. However this might not be true. Tanks were spotted being moved by truck, but the trucks were Russian, and the personnel moving them were Russian military.

Из бывшей украинÑкой военной чаÑти в Перевальном начали вывозить боевые машины

Meanwhile it looks like Russia will be actively strengthening the Black Sea Fleet. It will get a regiment of Tu-22M3 bombers, and a Mistral warship will be its new flagship. The Mistral will start out in the Pacific Fleet, and then likely spend a lot of time in the Mediterranean before proceeding to the Black Sea. There may also be Il-38s, Tu-142s, and Su-27s deployed here.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ôðàíöóçñêèé Mistral, íàçâàííûé â Ãîñäóìå "êîíñåðâíîé áàíêîé", ìîæåò ñòàòü ôëàãìàíîì ×Ô
Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - СеваÑтополь в СеваÑтополе
Ð*оÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð¼ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ½Ð° вернуть в Крым полк ракетоноÑной авиации
prokhor_tebin:
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ПерÑпективы авиагруппировки в Крыму

Russia is preparing to resume air travel to Crimea, using Tu-204 airplanes.

bmpd -

Self-defense militias in Sevastopol (the Crimean Militias) are being disbanded because under Russian law they are illegal armed formations. On a personal note, thank god.

http://newsru.com/russia/26mar2014/rasform.html

Starting May 1st gas prices for ordinary people will go up by first 40 then 50%, in continental Ukraine, as part of the conditions for the IMF loan. I wonder how people will swallow this, especially when autumn comes.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Öåíà ãàçà íà Óêðàèíå ñ 1 ìàÿ óâåëè÷èòñÿ íà 50%, êàê òðåáóåò Ìåæäóíàðîäíûé âàëþòíûé ôîíä

A new MinDef has been appointed in Ukraine, a Border Guards general, with VDV experience. I don't think he's in Svoboda.

http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/25/678866.html

It looks like some sort of regional-territorial defense units will be formed. It looks like they will be separate from the National Guard. Also separate from the People's Guard. And from the L'vov self defense militia. And from Right Sector. And from the Euro-Maydan Self-Defense Forces.

u_96:

The KGB of Pridnestrovye (Transnestria), a breakaway region of Moldavia, separate from the rest of Moldavia by Russian peacekeepers, shot down a Ukrainian UAV. Earlier there were rumors that Russian military presence in Transnestria was increased. Photos of the pieces in the link.

http://www.kgb-pmr.com/news/285

 

[Klaus]

Pensions in Ukraine are also to be cut. I wonder how anybody can live with just 80 $ a month, which will be the minimum pension according to RT News. Even for Ukraine with its low living costs this sounds like nothing. Perhaps a part of the population will still receive more than that, hopefully.

 

[Feanor]

Pensions in Ukraine are also to be cut. I wonder how anybody can live with just 80 $ a month, which will be the minimum pension according to RT News. Even for Ukraine with its low living costs this sounds like nothing. Perhaps a part of the population will still receive more than that, hopefully.

The Kiev government cut social programs by 610$ mln USD to redirect the money to the military.

Anyways, updates.

Long lines in Crimea to get Russian passports. Local bloggers state that you have to stand in 3 lines, to eventually get your passport. It takes a total of ~6 days to get to the end of all 3 lines, and sometimes it takes over 24 hours of standing in a line (family members switch off). Then you have to wait 10 days to get a passport.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/917335.html

Ukrainian sources state that over 40 UAV fly-by's have occurred from the Russian side of the border. Also a VMF ELINT vessel was seen near Ukraine. Concentration of Russian troops is continuing.

u_96:

Russian bloggers report Russian helicopter units in previously unseen locations. Some are close to the Ukrainian border some 200-250 kms away. But in each case these helicopters are in locations where they hadn't been seen in years (decades). No adequate explanation for their presence is forthcoming.

http://masterok.livejournal.com/1781531.html

The top photo is Russian troops in Crimea, note lots of EW equipment. The second photo are uniformed men who were seen moving in Crimea. Identification is lacking. The third photo is the Ukrainians Marines that have decided to return to Ukraine, they have arrived in Kiev.

u_96:

Here's a video of their departure from Crimea.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3283165.html

Ukrainian Navy vessels will be accepted into the Black Sea Fleet by the end of this year, after a technical evaluation.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ðовые Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ñ€Ð°Ñ‰ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð§Ð¤

Also Ukrainian VDV soldiers in full gear stormed a Russian navigation station. The navigation station was manned by Ukrainian civilian personnel, and it's been months since Russian military personnel last visited the station. What the logic behind scaring your own civilians sh*tless is I don't know... at the time of the storming one person was present there. In the video you see local civilians arguing with the soldiers about the appropriateness of the action.

Worthy of note, the Ukrainian troops in this video are quite well equipped. Modern flak, kevlar, and some of the AKs even have optics.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - МеÑÑ‚ÑŒ Украины

And it looks like the National Guard will be getting a bunch of random leftover vehicles. BTR-3Es (probably turned down by an export customer) BTR-70D (1 of them, probably the prototype), a few BTR-80s, and the BTR-4Es that Iraq turned down.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1252581.html

In Kiev the situation is continuing to escalate. The leader of Right Sector, Yarosh, stated that he intended to run for president. He also demanded the immediate resignation of the head of the MVD (a Svoboda member) Avakov, and the disbanding of the Sokol police unit.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/3/27/679062.html

Right Sector also held large scale exercises in the center of Kiev, practicing urban combat again anti-riot police, and capturing buildings.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1510166.html

Meanwhile Ukrainian embassy personnel are leaving Russia. Not all of them, but significant numbers. So far the embassy intends to remain open.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3286069.html

 

[overlander]

The Kiev government cut social programs by 610$ mln USD to redirect the money to the military.

Anyways, updates.

Long lines in Crimea to get Russian passports. Local bloggers state that you have to stand in 3 lines, to eventually get your passport. It takes a total of ~6 days to get to the end of all 3 lines, and sometimes it takes over 24 hours of standing in a line (family members switch off). Then you have to wait 10 days to get a passport.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Хватит врать про Крым!

Ukrainian sources state that over 40 UAV fly-by's have occurred from the Russian side of the border. Also a VMF ELINT vessel was seen near Ukraine. Concentration of Russian troops is continuing.

u_96:

Russian bloggers report Russian helicopter units in previously unseen locations. Some are close to the Ukrainian border some 200-250 kms away. But in each case these helicopters are in locations where they hadn't been seen in years (decades). No adequate explanation for their presence is forthcoming.

masterok:

The top photo is Russian troops in Crimea, note lots of EW equipment. The second photo are uniformed men who were seen moving in Crimea. Identification is lacking. The third photo is the Ukrainians Marines that have decided to return to Ukraine, they have arrived in Kiev.

u_96:

Here's a video of their departure from Crimea.

u_96:

Ukrainian Navy vessels will be accepted into the Black Sea Fleet by the end of this year, after a technical evaluation.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ðовые Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ñ€Ð°Ñ‰ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð§Ð¤

Also Ukrainian VDV soldiers in full gear stormed a Russian navigation station. The navigation station was manned by Ukrainian civilian personnel, and it's been months since Russian military personnel last visited the station. What the logic behind scaring your own civilians sh*tless is I don't know... at the time of the storming one person was present there. In the video you see local civilians arguing with the soldiers about the appropriateness of the action.

Worthy of note, the Ukrainian troops in this video are quite well equipped. Modern flak, kevlar, and some of the AKs even have optics.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - МеÑÑ‚ÑŒ Украины

And it looks like the National Guard will be getting a bunch of random leftover vehicles. BTR-3Es (probably turned down by an export customer) BTR-70D (1 of them, probably the prototype), a few BTR-80s, and the BTR-4Es that Iraq turned down.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ОÑнащение Ðациональной гвардии Украины

In Kiev the situation is continuing to escalate. The leader of Right Sector, Yarosh, stated that he intended to run for president. He also demanded the immediate resignation of the head of the MVD (a Svoboda member) Avakov, and the disbanding of the Sokol police unit.

 

Right Sector also held large scale exercises in the center of Kiev, practicing urban combat again anti-riot police, and capturing buildings.

Colonel Cassad -

Meanwhile Russian embassy personnel are leaving the country. Not all of them, but significant numbers. So far the embassy intends to remain open.

u_96:

Sorry Feanor but there they say that is the ukrainian embassy in Moscow wich is being evacuated, thanks for your interesting news, the best in the thread.

 

[Feanor]

Whoops, corrected. Sorry, a little sleep deprived. Thanks.

Bad, bad news. Right Sector fighters have surrounded the Rada and are demanding the resignation of the Minister of the Interior. They also demand a trial over the ex-MinDef. In other words Right Sector wants to remove Svoboda from power. Right Sector has brought tires to the walls, and has smashed the windows.

http://newsru.com/world/27mar2014/ps.html
http://twower.livejournal.com/1253027.html
http://vz.ru/online/2014/3/18/676544.html

 

[2007yellow430]

Except that 1903 was a long time ago. This is the 21st century, not the beginning of the 20th. We're all supposed to be law-abiding international citizens now, not imperialist land-grabbers. That's soooo last millennium.

Noriega of Panama comes to mind as does Granada. While both were 20th Century, they aren't all that far removed from now.

If the Ukraine cuts the Pensions and people can't survive, there is going to be quite a bit more unrest, and trouble.