Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

just to correct ... the above force of 18 000 per the article was stated by Ukrainian minister TENYX to the UK ambassador to Ukraine Simon Smith... 18 000 was never stated by RF and there is no evidence to support this number beyond the Ukrainian statement.

without facts... I would have said say ... 100 000 :

English Ukrainian news site

Almost 18 thousand of Russian soldiers are in Crimea now

Whoops. I misread that.

source?

some on ground western observers are estimating 35,000 - ie 5000 above legal limit

He's being facetious. And iirc the legal limit is 25 000. So 35 000 would be 10 000 above the agreed upon limit.

 

[Feanor]

More videos of Ukrainian troop movements. However what exactly and where is not always clear.

u_96:

The bottom two videos are Russian troops moving towards Crimea, the rest are Ukrainian.

u_96:

And a brigade in Odessa has started moving, but where to is unclear.

u_96:

Meanwhile a Ukrainian AVMF base was seized by Russian troops backed by two Mi-35M helos.

bmpd -

And apparently another airbase was blockaded by a small detachment of Russian troops. Consider that most of these airbases are barely active or inactive.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âîåííûå â ôîðìå áåç îïîçíàâàòåëüíûõ çíàêîâ çàõâàòèëè àýðîäðîì â Êðûìó

A communications post was taken by Russian troops with local militias, and some of the comm gear was removed, cables cut.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêèå ÑÌÈ ñîîáùàþò î çàõâàòå ðàäèîòåõíè÷åñêîãî ïîñòà, ìèíèðîâàíèè äàìáû è îáñòðåëå ñàìîëåòà "ðîññèéñêèìè âîåííûìè"

And an unspecified base in Novofedorovo is being "stormed" by Russian troops.

ВойÑка РФ штурмуют военную базу в Ðовофедоровке в Крыму (дополнено) | Конфликт Ñ Ð Ð¾ÑÑией | РБК-Украина

Ukraine denies that their troops are moving towards Crimea. While claiming that Russian troops from the 810th Marine Bde, and the VDV, are fortifying on the approaches to Crimea.

Ukraine also claims that additional Russian troops were deployed to Transnestria.

РФ перебраÑывает ÑпецвойÑка в ПриднеÑтровье, - неофициальные данные | Конфликт Ñ Ð Ð¾ÑÑией | РБК-Украина
ВойÑка РФ укреплÑÑŽÑ‚ÑÑ Ð½Ð° ПерекопÑком перешейке, - Минобороны | Конфликт Ñ Ð Ð¾ÑÑией | РБК-Украина
Ðикакого Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ¼ÐµÑ‰ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑƒÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñкой армии в Ñторону Крыма не предуÑматриваетÑÑ, - Минобороны | ÐовоÑти политики | РБК-Украина

Here's a nice map of Ukrainian S-200 positions. The solid ones are current, the dotted lines are proposed.

Ð¡Ð¾Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð²Ð¾Ð¹Ð½Ð° - ДиÑÐ»Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¡-200 на Украине (2009).

There's an interesting analytical piece here by Pukhov, from CAST. It's short, and in english.

bmpd - "

And Crimea has shut down Ukrainian news channels.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  êëþ÷èëè óêðàèíñêèå òåëåêàíàëû: "ïî þðèäè÷åñêèì ïðè÷èíàì è ìîðàëüíûì ïðèíöèïàì"

Meanwhile some new agreement is being pushed through to build a railroad and gas-line from Russia directly to Crimea. This might be done via a bridge across the Kerch strait. And the Russian government has set aside 1.1 bln USD to help Crimea directly.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðûìñêèå âëàñòè, íå äîæäàâøèñü ðåôåðåíäóìà îá îòäåëåíèè, çàÿâèëè, ÷òî íóæäàþòñÿ â ðîññèéñêèõ æåëåçíîé äîðîãå è ãàçîïðîâîäå
ПравительÑтво РФ уже зарезервировало около 1,1 млрд долл. Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð´ÐµÑ€Ð¶ÐºÐ¸ Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð²Ð¸Ñ‚Ð¸Ñ ÐšÑ€Ñ‹Ð¼Ð°, - ÐкÑенов | ÐовоÑти Ñкономики | РБК-Украина

 

[plasmahawk]

Lenta.ru:

and looks like a 13 million dollar one time bonus to ukrainian forces holding to their oath to ukraine and defending ukrainian objects in crimea has been approved by ukrainian gvmt.

feanor any idea what that would work out per soldier and officer.. im uncertain what the ua force numbers are in crimea?

per info graphic
http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/9820/27652091.28b/0_8bffd_82b17066_XL.jpg

14 600 active soldiers and officers (ukrainian) in crimea ... 1000 dollars each.

-plas

 

[plasmahawk]

on the highway to the russian black sea base

check out this video at 40 seconds at least two grad vehicles [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hIr2L5l2tM#t=40"]ТраÑÑа КраÑнодар - ÐовороÑÑийÑк 7 марта. Колонна войÑк РФ. - YouTube[/nomedia]
and lots of btrs

http://voenternet.ru/ipraaf/2014/03/08/владимир-путин-возможно-неврал/

apn site is suggesting that putin did not lie as it has never been mr putins habit but rather....the 6000 or so extra soldiers we saw mentioned by ukrainian defence minister may be there .....but are not russian forces

the unidentified units may be a privately owned and possibly eu based private force hired by crimean government... if so they are indeed not russian forces and if so... then its a legitimate ace in putins judicial arm...

there were reports of commercial flights coming into simferopol airport just before the _russian_ forces started appearing on the streets.

if this is the case its a twist

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russian-aircraft-troops-in-ukraine-bring-warning-from-u-s-1.2554798
feb 28 article quote

.....Armed, unidentified men took control of two airports in Crimea early that morning. Later in the day, eight Russian transport planes landed in Crimea with unknown cargo and about 30 Russian marines from Russia's Black Sea Fleet — which is based in Sevastopol — took position outside the area's Ukrainian coast guard base, according to Ukraine's border service.

The Il-76 planes arrived unexpectedly and were given permission to land, one after the other, at Gvardeiskoye air base, north of the regional capital of Simferopol, according to border service spokesman Serhiy Astakhov. ....


if this is the case it can explain some of the --latest-- gear seen in hands of the forces in crimea. russia perhaps only *facilitated* transport

hmmm

 

[swerve]

the unidentified units may be a privately owned and possibly eu based private force hired by crimean government

Are you serious?

This is bizarre.

 

[Feanor]

Are you serious?

This is bizarre.

It's nonsense. Russian military units have been positively identified, the equipment matches up perfectly, and in at least one case a soldier admitted he was Russian military.

Lenta.ru:

and looks like a 13 million dollar one time bonus to ukrainian forces holding to their oath to ukraine and defending ukrainian objects in crimea has been approved by ukrainian gvmt.

feanor any idea what that would work out per soldier and officer.. im uncertain what the ua force numbers are in crimea?

per info graphic
http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/9820/27652091.28b/0_8bffd_82b17066_XL.jpg

14 600 active soldiers and officers (ukrainian) in crimea ... 1000 dollars each.

-plas

Seems unlikely to work well given that the units don't have comms. And given that a thousand dollars isn't that much money. Even in Ukraine. Certainly not enough to risk ones life against Russian troops if one would otherwise not be inclined to do so.

 

[gazzzwp]

AWACS Flights ordered in Poland and Romania

BBC News - Nato jets to monitor Ukraine border

I wonder what they will be able to actually detect from that distance?

Would US Satellites be able to detect more in terms of troop movements than AWACS?

What are your thoughts please?

 

[kato]

I wonder what they will be able to actually detect from that distance?

Roughly? Every single aircraft in the air west of the Dniepr. Or over Crimea.

Nothing special about it btw. AWACS have been using Powidz AB in Poland for training for almost a decade, to the extend that for a couple years there was always an E-3 flying around there. Last real large-scale exercise based out of Poland involving 40 combat aircraft, AWACS, tankers and transport aircraft was just six months ago.

 

[Waylander]

I would also expect JSTARs or Sentinels or some ELINT sniffers showing up for the show.

Add to that the Burke which entered the Black Sea and NATO should get a good picture of large scale troop movements.

 

[Feanor]

An automobile btln in Bakhchisaray has just lowered the Ukrainian flag, and raised the Russian one. It's command and a large chunk of personnel have switched sides. The CO has ordered all those who disagree to leave the unit.

Colonel Cassad -

And the OSCE has been invited to Crimea, to observe the referendum on March 16.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðåôåðåíäóì â Êðûìó ïðîéäåò â ïðèñóòñòâèè âîîðóæåííûõ áîéöîâ. ÎÁÑÅ ïðèãëàñèëè íàáëþäàòü

Crimean authorities have nationalized the Ukrainian Navy ships there, as well as the ships of Chernomorneftegaz. They've also nationalized some solar plants (probably very very small ones).

http://lenta.ru/news/2014/03/10/fleet/

And Crimea wants to temporarily allow both Russian and Ukrainian currency to circulate, then switch entirely to the rouble.

http://lenta.ru/news/2014/03/10/hrivnya/

Meanwhile the protesters in Lugansk kicked out a new governor appointed by the Kiev government. The protesters stormed the government offices, while police in riot gears stood by, saying they are "with the people". The governor then resigned.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/3/9/676305.html

 

[AnthonyB]

What is the size of legitimate unit of self determination?

A country should be free to decide its own fate, but countries vary in size from huge to micro.
Can a state or region legitimately claim self determination against the wishes of its own country? How small can that entity be? Is the limit 100K or 1K?
If Russian minority in the Ukraine, gets to take the area with its majority out of the Ukraine, can the Tatar or other non Russian Ukrainians in Crimea take their regions out of Crimea?

 

[Feanor]

What is the size of legitimate unit of self determination?

A country should be free to decide its own fate, but countries vary in size from huge to micro.
Can a state or region legitimately claim self determination against the wishes of its own country? How small can that entity be? Is the limit 100K or 1K?
If Russian minority in the Ukraine, gets to take the area with its majority out of the Ukraine, can the Tatar or other non Russian Ukrainians in Crimea take their regions out of Crimea?

Emphasis mine.

Clearly not. Russia has the big nuclear stick, and certainly won't let Turkey put any "polite people" in Crimea.

Practically speaking the standard seems to be feasibility. When the Chechens wanted out, they were the first. A trial run so to speak. Other minorities also were thinking about wider autonomy or secession in Russia back then. After Yeltsin reduced Chechnya to rubble in the First Chechen War, the rest decided independence wasn't worth the price. Putin of course put all questions to rest with the Second Chechen War, which annulled the agreements at the end of the first one.

So in this case Crimea can get it's independence, or indeed it's membership in the Russian Federation, not only because it has a majority of Russian population, and historic ties, but also because Russia is able and willing to deploy necessary troops to make it happen. Troops aren't the only factor, but they're a major one (money is another one).

Remember sovereignty and self-determination are essentially contradictory clauses of the UN charter. So in practice, expedience takes precedence.

 

[Bluey 006]

Any thoughts on what's going to happen here, will the country peacefully split in two, or will there be another Balkans style civil war? What are the implications if Russia gets involved? It's looking fairly similar to what happened in Georgia right now, Russian military exercises near the border which escalated into a protection force for the local ethnic Russian community. IMO it would be fairy easy for Crimea to break away, the province is 70% Russian, most of whome are also Russian citizens and this area was Russian until 1954.

A friend of mine from Odessa said prior to 1991 he was happily Russian, after 1991 nobody asked me what I wanted and I'm now Ukranian by decree not by choice.

I think it demonstrates to governments hell bent on on reducing defence expenditure, how quickly geopolitical circumstances can change leading to scenarios where major interstate conflict could become likely. I just read an article here on defensetalk discussing how Russia may halt Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) inspections. Russia warns could halt foreign arms checks | Defense & Security News at DefenceTalk

 

[swerve]

... IMO it would be fairy easy for Crimea to break away, the province is 70% Russian, most of whome are also Russian citizens and this area was Russian until 1954....

A quibble: the 2001 Ukrainian census said 60% Russian (including Sevastopol), not 70%, & it's more likely to have gone down than up since then,

The 1989 Soviet census said 67% Russian, but since then there's been an influx of returning Tatars (mostly from Uzbekistan, where Stalin sent them), plus others who used to pretend to be Russian (gone from 1.6% in 1989 to 10.3% in 2001, & a few more since), & the total population's dropped as numbers of Russians & Ukrainians have gone down more than the number of Tatars has gone up.

 

[Feanor]

The Kiev authorities are forming a new National Guard that will consist of 20 000 troops. Observers speculate that this is a replacement to Berkut.

*

Meanwhile the current Ukrainian Minister of Defense apparently stated that only 6 000 Land Forces troops (out of 41 000) in Ukraine are combat ready (whatever that means). The article notes that current strength of the Ukrainian Armed forces on paper is supposed to be ~ 125 000, but in practice the uncompleteness of the units at the junior enlisted level approaches 50%.

The article then discusses the disastrous situation with the state of Ukrainian military equipment. And political observers have been attached to some of the units, by the Kiev government.

The Naval GenHQ commander asked Ukrainian soldiers to keep their discipline, keep in mind the importance in keeping the peace, and not to fire at their Russian brothers under any circumstances.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3238304.html
*

All this while Ukraine has declared that their troop movements are "training exercises". Probably to have a way to call the whole thing off without losing face. Given the problems that are reportedly faced by Ukrainian units trying to move, this is not surprising.

http://newsru.com/world/11mar2014/perekop.html

Crimean sources claim that a US spy drone was shot down over a checkpoint at the Turkish Wall. I doubt it had anything to do with the US. The drone, if the news are true, was probably of the Ukrainian MVD or Border Guards. The Border Guards did an overflight over Berkut positions at the entrance to Crimea using a small airplane yesterday.

http://komtv.org/21582-v-krymu-sbili-amerikanskij-bespilotnik/

There seems to have been some sort of violent fight with fire arms involved, in Kiev, on the Maydan. Unsurprisingly Right Sector was involved.

rusln-spb.livejournal.com/7881.html

Recent photos of Russian troops in Crimea. Note the large number of soldiers in the photos.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3238773.html

In Simferopol, note the Crimean Militias (Cossacks).

1200-dpi.livejournal.com/149398.html

And the Crimean Militia checkpoint near Balaclava.

http://1200-dpi.livejournal.com/149135.html

Meanwhile Moscow is sending humanitarian aid to Crimea.

http://newsru.com/russia/11mar2014/help.html

There was a confrontation at a Crimean checkpoint between Berkut and a column of EuroMaydan activists. The Berkut fighter shot a man twice with a non-lethal weapon of some sort (probably a travmatic gun, they're quite popular in the ex-USSR). Note the absence of Russian troops or Crimean militias. They're there, no doubt, but the entire front end seems to be handled by Berkut.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDgSCYB5vj8"]Riot Police Berkut shoots at the chest a Ukrainian civilian at Crimean border block post in Ukraine - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[swerve]

It's nonsense. Russian military units have been positively identified, the equipment matches up perfectly, and in at least one case a soldier admitted he was Russian military.

Indeed. When I asked him if he was serious, it was '"Are you serious?" as in "You really, really can't be serious.".

 

[nkvd]

Read the comment sections on news sites and you will be suprised at how many people have bought the "self defence force" nonsense.I really enjoy reading your work on the crisis Feanor-thanks

 

[Feanor]

Read the comment sections on news sites and you will be suprised at how many people have bought the "self defence force" nonsense.I really enjoy reading your work on the crisis Feanor-thanks

You're welcome.

It's hard to see what's going on in Ukraine from LA or New York. It's even hard to see from St. Peters, or Voronezh.

And make no mistake, there is a self-defense force. It's the Crimean Militias. One thousand of them have been sworn in, and they armed (sticks/bats and riot shields). There have even been unconfirmed sightings of them with weapons. One could even consider Crimean Berkut as part of the self-defense force. And Berkut is professional para-military, with flak and kevlar.

Meanwhile a few more videos of what are supposed to be Ukrainian troop movements.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3239152.html

And a video of the Ukrainian checkpoint. Note the equipment and weapons. It looks similar to the Russian Army around 2004. Mostly Soviet stuff.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3239393.html

EDIT: After watching the rest of the video, I noticed that he eventually goes to the Berkut checkpoint at Chongar. He consistently refers to it as the Russian checkpoint. They end up in a brief confrontation with the Berkut officers who try to take away their camera. He mentions that Crimean authorities have been detaining journalists and taking them down to Sevastopol to the "security services". Rumors of this have been floating around, and at least two journalists were beaten by Crimean Militias.

Crimean authorities seem to be ready to make concessions to the Crimean Tatars. They're talking about making their language a state language alongside Russian, in Crimea. They're also promising to recognize the organs of self-government of the Tatars. The head of the Tatars Medjlis stated that this statement incorporates much of what the Tatars have requested from the Ukrainian government in the past (but have not received ) but still intends to boycott the referendum. This might change after his visit to Moscow, where he will meet a former president of Russian Tatarstan.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/3/11/676559.html

And, apparently, Crimea has significant natural gas deposits. Not big enough to compete with Russian ones, but significant enough to provide the Crimeans with self-sufficiency in that regard. They already supply 50-65% of their natural gas. This should limit damage from separating from Ukrainian infrastructure.

http://vz.ru/economy/2014/3/11/676565.html

Meanwhile the Ukrainian MoD has allegedly recommended that Army units be NOT deployed to Crimea, because large numbers of them are likely to desert or switch sides.

http://kanchukov-sa.livejournal.com/1997518.html

 

[Feanor]

The Russian Army is on the move, and from the looks of, this might be big time. A trainload of tanks was filmed in Rostov, but that might've been coincidence, if it weren't for the second video in the link. That is a sh*tload of troops, clogging up the M4 Highway near Rostov.

Добро пожаловать в журнал РоÑтовÑкого Орла - Ðанки в РоÑтове видео.

 

[Todjaeger]

The Russian Army is on the move, and from the looks of, this might be big time. A trainload of tanks was filmed in Rostov, but that might've been coincidence, if it weren't for the second video in the link. That is a sh*tload of troops, clogging up the M4 Highway near Rostov.

Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - Танки в Ð*оÑтове видео.

I do not suppose the Ukraine has any SF or agents which could potentially take that train line out of serious at a key point in time? Such an event could trigger a significant recalculation on what could or should happen.