Ukranian Crisis

[wittmanace]

Quick flag/colours guide from the bbc, as it might become more relevant in pics we see in the next few days:

BBC News - Ukraine crisis: What do the flags mean?

 

[plasmahawk]

Honestly, I don't know any more. I didn't think they would move this way in Crimea. And the time frame is suspect (to put it mildly). Annexation of Crimea is starting to look likely.



Sevastopol city council announced that the city is joining Russia. And the Crimean Parliament declared that Crimea intends to become a subject of the Russian Federation. So... yeah. It' starting to look like Crimean annexation might indeed be the end goal. Not a smart move, in my opinion.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ПреÑÑ-ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ñ„ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ½Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ñ†Ðµ-премьера Крыма по Ñудьбе полуоÑтрова
colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1459054.html

Meanwhile a decommissioned ASW destroyer (BPK Admiral Ochakov) was sunk in front of the Ukrainian naval base, blocking the exit.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. Возможно затоплен ÑпиÑанный "Очаков"
bmpd -

The sinking is ridiculous, just as I was hoping the rf forces were behaving.

As for annexation it's against Russian constitution to annex or add another territory without explicit approval from the country whose territory wishes to join Russia. What do u think feanor will Russia change its constitution for this?

Also live reports from residents..beyond Crimea :

News from kiev stores are open and there are no bands roving around raping or killing. This is from residents in kiev...

from kharkov there are reports of business being "seized " from Russians by Ukrainians.


Western Ukraine is to busy being civilized while all this is going on...

 

[Feanor]

The sinking is ridiculous, just as I was hoping the rf forces were behaving.

As for annexation it's against Russian constitution to annex or add another territory without explicit approval from the country whose territory wishes to join Russia. What do u think feanor will Russia change its constitution for this?

Russia is not a country that embraces rule of law. In Russia it's rule through law. If need be, the constitution will change

Also live reports from residents..beyond Crimea :

News from kiev stores are open and there are no bands roving around raping or killing. This is from residents in kiev...

Have the police returned to the city?

from kharkov there are reports of business being "seized " from Russians by Ukrainians.


Western Ukraine is to busy being civilized while all this is going on...

Western Ukraine won't be so civilized if they lose the money the East brings in. Remember which regions give money to the budget and which get money.

 

[Feanor]

Unofficial sources claim that Russian troops have stopped blocking military units in Crimea. Possibly in response to frictions with locals, and after realizing that they have neither the intention nor ability to stand up to Russian troops.

ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð Ð¤ переÑтала блокировать воинÑкие чаÑти в СеваÑтополе, - неофициальные данные | Конфликт Ñ Ð Ð¾ÑÑией | РБК-Украина

Meanwhile Ukrainian media companies have shut off Russian TV channels in Crimea.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îòêëþ÷åíèå ðîññèéñêèõ òåëåêàíàëîâ â Êèåâå è Õåðñîíå âûçâàëî ó Ãîñäóìû ÐÔ ïîäîçðåíèå î íà÷àëå èíôîðìàöèîííîé âîéíû

And Yarosh, head of Right Sector, has requested that his activists be given access to weapons, and military training centers, so they could help preserve the unit of Ukraine, and shutting down the anti-Maydan protests.

Colonel Cassad - "

 

[wittmanace]

Might also be because they have rendered kit useless or blocked them in. I saw reports that the Ukrainians at balbek said the Russians had punctured all aircraft tires and put stones in the engines of the mig 29s

 

[swerve]

...And Yarosh, head of Right Sector, has requested that his activists be given access to weapons, and military training centers, so they could help preserve the unit of Ukraine, and shutting down the anti-Maydan protests....

Please, no!

Unless someone could find a way to herd the Right Sector activists into a field with those 'Cossacks' in Crimea, & leave them to it. It'd improve the human race a touch if they wiped each other out.

 

[2007yellow430]

There is an interest analysis of what Putin did:

US-Russia relations ‘paramount’ says Putin, but Crimea sees more troops | Al Jazeera America

Given the current state of things, it looks like he got exactly what he wanted: control without the necessity of causing irreparable harm to his relations with the EU and the USA.

Hopefully, this doesn't blow up into a shooting war.

Art

 

[Feanor]

Another old ship has been sunk in the harbor, blocking it almost completely.

u_96:

This is where the first one was sunk.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° Украине. Обо вÑем понемногу

Also Ukrainian Naval Aviation has left. The part of it that can fly. Apparently it consists of 1 Ka-27, 2 Mi-14s, and an unspecified number of Be-12 and An-26 (maybe one each?). Apparently a couple of Russian Su-24s tried to intercept, but didn't make it.

Украина Ñвакуировала Ñ ÐšÑ€Ñ‹Ð¼Ð° авиацию Военно-МорÑких Сил

Meanwhile the Ukrainian Army seems to actually be moving. Columns of armor and SAMs were spotted.

ВлаÑти Крыма обеÑпокоенны передиÑлокацией вооруженных Ñил Украины к границе полуоÑтрова
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOpsmfDiWlM"]передиÑÐ»Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¾Ð¹Ñк украинÑким границам - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj-VZB0ZdEA"]Соледар Ð±Ð¾ÐµÐ²Ð°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ° Украина - YouTube[/nomedia]

Meanwhile Right Sector activists have detained a local procuror (District Attorney). And have sealed the workplace of a local police chief in western Ukraine. The reason is that they were appointed without conferring with the local euro-Maydan activists.

Во Львове "Правый Ñектор" и Ñамооборона Ñорвали предÑтавлÐние нового прокурора облаÑти
http://tyzhden.ua/News/104282?attempt=1

Apparently Russian troops with a number of Crimean militias stormed a Ukrainian air defense unit. After seizing a large chunk of the unit, some sort of agreement was reached with the unit command, after which Russian troops and the Crimean militias left.

http://newsru.com/world/08mar2014/sturm.html

 

[Feanor]

Please, no!

Unless someone could find a way to herd the Right Sector activists into a field with those 'Cossacks' in Crimea, & leave them to it. It'd improve the human race a touch if they wiped each other out.

These guys looted one and destroyed one, police arsenal, during the protests. Over 1000 fire arms (mostly Makarov hand guns) were stolen, along with 18 000 rounds of ammo. So it may not be a question of letting them, as much as whether the Kiev government can stop them. Look, the local euro-Maydan activists are already sabotaging officials appointed by the central Kiev government.

 

[BlueRose]

The reports about the Ukrainian mobilization is disturbing. So far, both sides have tried their best to be cordial and calm. As for the Euromaidan backed Government, they seem to be teetering with corruption. They've placed several Oligarchs such as Sergey Taruta, to oversee the Eastern parts of Ukraine. This is adding to the tension and asking for more Russian responses. Plus the newest leaked phone call.....

Though, if Russia does have to engage Ukraine on the battlefield; I wonder if they will be able to overcome the Buk M1 and other SAM systems. I know they had some trouble gaining Air Supremacy during the Georgian War. I found it very ironic that they couldn't effectively counteract there own systems. I'm sure they've come up with some effective measures this time. In all sensibility, I would like this conflict to be resolved peacefully. Brother shouldn't have to fight brother.

 

[Bonza]

The reports about the Ukrainian mobilization is disturbing. So far, both sides have tried their best to be cordial and calm. As for the Euromaidan backed Government, they seem to be teetering with corruption. They've placed several Oligarchs such as Sergey Taruta, to oversee the Eastern parts of Ukraine. This is adding to the tension and asking for more Russian responses. Plus the newest leaked phone call.....

Though, if Russia does have to engage Ukraine on the battlefield; I wonder if they will be able to overcome the Buk M1 and other SAM systems. I know they had some trouble gaining Air Supremacy during the Georgian War. I found it very ironic that they couldn't effectively counteract there own systems. I'm sure they've come up with some effective measures this time. In all sensibility, I would like this conflict to be resolved peacefully. Brother shouldn't have to fight brother.

I'd think if it came to armed conflict the Russians would probably target SAM sites with ground forces before they started operating combat jets, unless they have a more robust aircraft-based anti-SAM capability than they did in Georgia. From what Feanor said it sounds like they already had a go at capturing/neutralising one air defence unit. I'm just hoping it doesn't come to that as armed conflict on that scale is going to leave a lot of innocents dead and lives destroyed.

 

[Feanor]

Ukraine is trying to rotate units out of the South, and replacing them with units from Western Ukraine. At least one unit so far has refused to take orders. However their chances for a military solution aren't good, to put it mildly.

katmoor -
colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1461645.html

And Russia is breaking diplomatic ties with Ukraine, due to the illegitimacy of the Kiev government.

Colonel Cassad -

I'd think if it came to armed conflict the Russians would probably target SAM sites with ground forces before they started operating combat jets, unless they have a more robust aircraft-based anti-SAM capability than they did in Georgia. From what Feanor said it sounds like they already had a go at capturing/neutralising one air defence unit. I'm just hoping it doesn't come to that as armed conflict on that scale is going to leave a lot of innocents dead and lives destroyed.

The SAM sites in Crimea will be out of play almost immediately. Many probably won't even participate. The real question will be whether they can effectively deploy SAMs that will be outside of Crimea, but able to engage aircraft in Crimean airspace.

But there's bad news. At one of the checkpoints manned by Berkut, unknown men have entrenched a BTR-80, and set up a minefield. Video of the checkpoint is different from what was seen there earlier. No longer is it manned exclusively by uniformed Berkut fighters from the MVD. Now there are people in civilian attire, with AKs and black masks, or various mismatched cammies. They do not look like Russian military, or Berkut. They look like Crimean Militia, but with weapons. Locals say that the men claim to Kuban' Cossacks. Locals also say that many APCs drove around at night. And several kilometers from them are Ukrainian positions, manned by what look like line Motor-Rifle units.

http://conflict.rbc.ua/rus/vooruzhe...le-propusknogo-punkta-chongar--07032014195800

Local sources also claim that VMF BDKs are continuing to deliver vehicles and troops to Crimea. Including additional BTR-80s.

http://conflict.rbc.ua/rus/v-krym-prodolzhaet-postupat-rossiyskaya-bronetehnika---07032014183400

 

[the concerned]

It looks like pro Russian militia's and Russian forces are preparing themselves .I honestly believe it's going to be squeaky bum time when they hold the referendum, that's the most likely time things will kick off. Especially if Crimea goes to Russia because the pro Russian forces will behave like the Ukrainian forces in Crimea are the invading forces and they have the authority to remove them from Russian soil.

 

[ngatimozart]

Seems the BBC have spotted a female pro Russian agitator who has been appearing in interviews across the Ukraine using different aliases. BBC News - #BBCtrending: Pro-Russia 'fakes' in Ukraine? To be expected.

 

[wittmanace]

Odd piece to run, since the face recognition expert in their own clip says it isn't the same person.

 

[wittmanace]

It seems the overnight activity was removing the small arms armoury from the "missile defense command base" (successfully):

BBC News - Ukraine crisis 'created artificially' - Russia's Lavrov

 

[Feanor]

More news.

Crimean officials explained that the reason for the change in the referendum (from March 30 to March 16, and from Status of Crimea in Ukraine to Becoming a Russian Subject) is hostility from Kiev.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðûì ïîÿñíèë èçìåíåíèå âîïðîñîâ ðåôåðåíäóìà "çëûìè ñëîâàìè" Êèåâà

Meanwhile Russian MoD says there are 18 thousand Russian service members in Crimea. The pre-conflict strength of the Black Sea Fleet was 11 thousand, so we can infer that 7000 additional troops were brought in.

Ð’ Крыму находÑÑ‚ÑÑ 18 Ñ‚Ñ‹Ñ. военноÑлужащих Ð*Ф, - Минобороны | Конфликт Ñ Ð*оÑÑией | Ð*БК-Украина

About 70 Russian military trucks entered Simferopol. This is the largest Russian troop movement so far.

Колонна военных машин вошла в Симферополь | Конфликт Ñ Ð*оÑÑией | Ð*БК-Украина

And the first "Crimean Army" unit has sworn allegiance to Crimea. What this means is unclear.

Ð’ Симферополе принÑло приÑÑгу первое подразделение крымÑкой армии | Конфликт Ñ Ð*оÑÑией | Ð*БК-Украина
*

Meanwhile the 95th Air Mobile Brigade is moving towards Crimea. This time successfully.

bmpd -

Meanwhile the Czech president said that Ukraine would have to make major sacrifices to sign the agreement with the EU.

*

Also some MANPADS may be missing from the Ukrainian Army. Russian sources speculate that they were either handed over to the radicals, or sold off, but concrete info is lacking.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1464132.html

 

[plasmahawk]

odd duplicate post.. cant delete it sorry forum

 

[plasmahawk]

More news.
Meanwhile Russian MoD says there are 18 thousand Russian service members in Crimea. The pre-conflict strength of the Black Sea Fleet was 11 thousand, so we can infer that 7000 additional troops were brought in.

Ð’ Крыму находÑÑ‚ÑÑ 18 Ñ‚Ñ‹Ñ. военноÑлужащих Ð*Ф, - Минобороны | Конфликт Ñ Ð*оÑÑией | Ð*БК-Украина

just to correct ... the above force of 18 000 per the article was stated by Ukrainian minister TENYX to the UK ambassador to Ukraine Simon Smith... 18 000 was never stated by RF and there is no evidence to support this number beyond the Ukrainian statement.

without facts... I would have said say ... 100 000 :

English Ukrainian news site

Almost 18 thousand of Russian soldiers are in Crimea now

 

[gf0012-aust]

without facts... I would have said say ... 100 000 :

source?

some on ground western observers are estimating 35,000 - ie 5000 above legal limit