Ukranian Crisis

[ngatimozart]

They seem to be using lots, and lots of flashbangs to get the Ukrainians to give up ground. At least that's what has been reported so far. I'm guessing there's some pretty strict instructions to avoid using lethal force.

On another forum (Kiwi aviation one) Putin has been labelled a despotic dictator, much like Hitler, but more to the point the post there compared the Crimean situation to the Sudatenland annexation in 1938 and the subsequent Nazi invasion of the rest of Czechoslovakia which eventually led to WW2; which raises an important point, there could be historical similarities here, could this crisis end up leading to another long European war?

I thought maybe returning the Crimea to Russia would've resolved the situation somewhat, but after reading the I am wondering if that would be the correct solution and as mentioned above a historical precedent exists. Putin has stated that he wants to restore the Russian empire to something like it was in the days of the USSR. Federalising the Ukraine maybe another solution but I believe the divisions are to great for that. I feel that the Ukraine is going to split in a Russian part and a European looking part. I fear that it will not be a peaceful split and the ramifications will be very widespread.

 

[the concerned]

Wasn't the reason Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons was that both Russia /Uk/USA would honour Ukraine's soverign territory. Now that Russia has broken that agreement what would stop Ukraine from developing a nuclear detterent.Please don't say finance's because North korea is also broke but that hasn't stopped them.Also how many other eastern European countries have a Russian population.

 

[My2Cents]

Countries can divide without bloodshed, Czechoslovakia managed it.

Czechoslovakia did it by mutual consent, with a 10 year trial period to make sure that they weren’t making a mistake and then a 2nd vote to confirm that a majority still thought it was still the right thing to do. The 2 countries are still each other’s best friends and trading partners. That’s the right way to do it alright.

Doing it because someone is holding a gun to your head is absolutely the wrong way to do it, as demonstrated by a couple millennia of history. The bloodshed is only deferred and multiplied.

 

[KiwiRob]

Wasn't the reason Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons was that both Russia /Uk/USA would honour Ukraine's soverign territory. Now that Russia has broken that agreement what would stop Ukraine from developing a nuclear detterent.Please don't say finance's because North korea is also broke but that hasn't stopped them.Also how many other eastern European countries have a Russian population.

Many do, the Baltic States all have large minority Russian populations, but I don't see any threat to them, to say there is is just creating a problem out of nothing. The Baltic states are now EU and NATO members, Russia isn't stupid.

 

[plasmahawk]

Airforce in Crimea stands up against the "Temporary" government

Belbek Airforce base, personnel and Mig aircraft defect over to Crimean side.

https://www.google.ca/maps/@44.6865306,33.5723862,327m/data=!3m1!1e3

Well, now this puts the entire Mig 29 force of Ukrainian airforce in alignment with Crimea. I am wondering what guarantees have been provided to Naval and Airforce commanders and officers by Russia as if things "dont go" the Crimean way, there will be sever punishment.

http://rt.com/news/crimea-air-base-allegiance-593/

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5Y_wjT-530"]Switching Sides: Ukraine's Air Force brigade, Navy chief pledge allegiance to Crimea - YouTube[/nomedia]


---
"Сегодня командование 204-й базы в Бельбеке заявило об ее переходе на сторону крымского народа", - сказал он, уточнив, что речь идет о более чем 800 военнослужащих.

204th airbase in Belbek has moved over to back the Crimean people - this includes about 800 enlisted personell.

"На аэродроме Бельбек находятся 45 истребителей МиГ-29 и 4 учебных самолета Л-39. Из них исправны только четыре истребителя и один учебный самолет", - отметил чиновник.

Belbek airport maintains 45 mig 29 and 4 l39 trainers. However, only 4 fighters and one trainer are in working condition.
---

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

So if that is accepted then he has committed treason.

Indeed. He can refuse to accept orders from Kiev and say the former president is still his boss. But he can't swear allegiance to a foreign power or a non-national authority like the acting Crimean leader.

 

[ngatimozart]

It's been reported in various media that Russian forces have delivered an ultimatum to all Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Crimea. Surrender by Tuesday or face attack. This is of course denied by the Russian Govt. The Russian Ambassador to the UN has cited a letter from deposed President Yanukovych requesting assistance to restore order in the Ukraine. Russia recognises Yanukovych as the legitimate ruler of the Ukraine.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-march-3-live-updates-338232.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-military-issuing-ultimatums-to-ukraine-forces-in-crimea/
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-tensions/

 

[Feanor]

News time.

Social media photos of Russian and Ukrainian (but mostly Russian) troops in Crimea.

Krim-Krise: Keine Angst vor Putins Panzern - Politik Ausland - Bild.de
u_96: "

A meeting was held at the headquarters of the Ukrainian Navy where the officers were given an option whether to serve the Kiev government of Ukraine, or the Crimean Autonomy. The meeting didn't go that well for the Autonomy.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ОфицерÑкое Ñобрание в штабе ВМС Украины

Nikolaev, Kherson, and Odessa, stated that they would like to be part of an expanded autonomous Crimea.

ХерÑон, Ðиколаев и ОдеÑÑа заÑвлÑÑŽÑ‚ о желании войти в ÑоÑтав Крыма | Ð*ИРÐовоÑти

Nearly 150 000 Ukrainians have requested asylum in Russia over the past month. Russia's Far East Development agencies has offered jobs and housing to them in the Far East.

*

Donetsk has decided to have a referendum like the Crimean one. The government building is partially under the control of pro-Russian demonstrators. The top floors are barricaded with metal shields and barbed wire.

In Odessa the regional government building lowered the Ukrainian flag, and raised the Russian one. The protesters are demanding that a referendum be held on the status of federalism in Ukraine and on the status of the Russian language.

*

Apparently ~5000 service members of the MVD, MoD, and Border Guards, have sworn allegiance to the Autonomy of Crimea. However the Marine btln is still holding out and has refused to switch sides.

The Ukrainian MinDef is claiming that Russian fighter jets (sic!) violated Ukrainian airspace.

http://newsru.com/world/03mar2014/russia_ukraine_army_bases.html

Also parts of the Ukrainian Navy are still blockaded in Sevastopol. Allegedly, they've been given an ultimatum to leave their ships.

http://newsru.com/world/03mar2014/alarm.html

 

[Feanor]

On another forum (Kiwi aviation one) Putin has been labelled a despotic dictator, much like Hitler, but more to the point the post there compared the Crimean situation to the Sudatenland annexation in 1938 and the subsequent Nazi invasion of the rest of Czechoslovakia which eventually led to WW2; which raises an important point, there could be historical similarities here, could this crisis end up leading to another long European war?

I thought maybe returning the Crimea to Russia would've resolved the situation somewhat, but after reading the I am wondering if that would be the correct solution and as mentioned above a historical precedent exists. Putin has stated that he wants to restore the Russian empire to something like it was in the days of the USSR. Federalising the Ukraine maybe another solution but I believe the divisions are to great for that. I feel that the Ukraine is going to split in a Russian part and a European looking part. I fear that it will not be a peaceful split and the ramifications will be very widespread.

Honestly the similarities are eerie. Some of the circumstances line up perfectly. A nationalistic government recovering from an economic depression. A former territory, now independent. A minority that requires protection. An indecisive and divided international community. Important trade relations with the West.

Of course the rest of the situation is not what it was back then. Nuclear deterrence is still in play, and the US is a super power with a global network of bases and a huge Navy. Most of Europe belongs to a military-political block (NATO) with a mutual defense clause. And Russia today isn't much of an economic power house (unlike Hitlers Germany).

It's been reported in various media that Russian forces have delivered an ultimatum to all Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Crimea. Surrender by Tuesday or face attack.

There's a good chance that an unofficial ultimatum was delivered, but that Russia doesn't intend to carry it out. A couple of Ukrainian units were given ultimatums to surrender earlier. They ignored the ultimatums, and nothing happened. These units are isolated, outnumbered, and under-equipped. In many cases they don't want to fight. They just don't want to surrender. Russia is trying to apply pressure on them, to get them to lay down their weapons.

Wasn't the reason Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons was that both Russia /Uk/USA would honour Ukraine's soverign territory. Now that Russia has broken that agreement what would stop Ukraine from developing a nuclear detterent.Please don't say finance's because North korea is also broke but that hasn't stopped them.Also how many other eastern European countries have a Russian population.

Well lets start with their lack of plutonium. Lets continue with their lack of facilities and finances. And lets end with the extremely negative reaction this would get from the West (their only potential saviors).

As for North Korea, they're not broke. The population is in poverty, but the country has money. Not to mention - look how long it took.

Hypothetically speaking it's certainly possible for them to do so, but they have little reason to, and the government in charge isn't strong enough to make that decision.

Belbek Airforce base, personnel and Mig aircraft defect over to Crimean side.

Fun fact, this is the same unit that Russian troops were storming with flashbangs, less then 48 hours ago. I wonder how deep their loyalties run.

 

[Beatmaster]

Fun fact, this is the same unit that Russian troops were storming with flashbangs, less then 48 hours ago. I wonder how deep their loyalties run.

Russian media and Russian reports are contradicting virtually everything that can be seen by news crews.
So the propaganda machine on Russian side is running overtime.
communication and miscommunication keep them guessing cloak the truth and deny the agreed....

Almost classical "cold war" propaganda.

Fact is that Russia is playing a very dangerous game, because even while the fall out seems to be minimal for Putin on the short term, it can blow up in his face.
So far he is putting the west down like a laughing stock.
Knowing that NATO/EU/US are not able to do something serious.
Well they can but not on a short notice, and yes I am sure that NATO does have some military plan set up just in case, but from Putin POV the odds that NATO is going to do something serious seem minimal.
So one could say Putin is walking a fine line between conflict and total escalation.

I like the quote of Merkel saying that Putin lost all sense of reality and is out of this world. But honestly other then laughing about that, I do not know if that is a good thing or a bad thing because Putin must know that he can only carry this so far. Before things go badly for him.

The western world seem to be having problems with making up their mind and doing something serious, but I wonder what would happen if Putin orders more troops into Ukraine to occupy more territory, either by force either by the idea of force aka do as we say or else.

So my question is when does the west run out of talks? because it is EU's backyard and I just cannot believe that they would drop Ukraine like that and give Russia their way...just because they do not want a conflict.
Obviously none wants a conflict but if things escalate then conflict might be the only thing left.

That said there is so much news coverage about it, and so many people voicing their opinion that I honestly do not know what to think anymore here as so far everyone "predicting" Putins moves on CNN and other major news outlets seem to be wrong or at least way off.

 

[John Fedup]

So my question is when does the west run out of talks? because it is EU's backyard and I just cannot believe that they would drop Ukraine like that and give Russia their way...just because they do not want a conflict.
Obviously none wants a conflict but if things escalate then conflict might be the only thing left.

It wouldn't be the first time Europe dropped a country for the sake of "peace". The Crimea is likely lost and the eastern Ukraine may be Putin's next rescue. If this happens, the question will be will the West grow a pair? With Europe's banks exposed to Ukrainian loans and their dependence on Russian natural gas, it is not looking good for the Ukraine.

 

[Todjaeger]

It wouldn't be the first time Europe dropped a country for the sake of "peace". The Crimea is likely lost and the eastern Ukraine may be Putin's next rescue. If this happens, the question will be will the West grow a pair? With Europe's banks exposed to Ukrainian loans and their dependence on Russian natural gas, it is not looking good for the Ukraine.

It is more complicated, or at least more dangerous than the West "growing a pair" as it were. Russia knows and admits that in a conventional conflict the Russian military cannot prevale against NATO/US forces. As a result Russia has adopted a nuclear first strike policy in the event of such a conflict.

This puts the West in a difficult position, since any attempt to intervene in the crisis by deploying troops could result in fighting between Western and Russian forces, which could in turn trigger a Russian nuclear launch. Western leaders have a difficult calculation to make assessing the risk of a nuclear exchange vs. stopping Russia from seizing territory of sovereign nations.

Of interest is the recent commentary from Russia that suggests Russia reserves the right to intervene in the affairs of any of the former Soviet republics, by virtue of the fact that all of them have a large ethnic Russian minority population. This is something which even some of the more Russian-friendly ex-Soviet republics find worrisome.

 

[mAIOR]

Well, I don't want to be controversial for the sake of controversy but after gather all the info I could muster, it doesn't appear to be such and outrageous thing that Russia is doing. Considering that the government was toppled in Kiev and an interim government which is not representative of all the Ukranians was put in place, Putin's actions (albeit leaving a bad taste in my mouth) are not so far fetched as to be called an international crime. So far, Russian forces have restricted themselves to Crimea and are not indiscriminately killing or causing violence. If the people of Crimea want to be independent and don't see themselves as part of the Ukraine and certainly not as part as this interim government, it's a subject that they will have to discuss. I don't see the west doing anything about it and to be honest, after Iraq or Lybia, it would be very hypocritical of them to do something. Just my quick thoughts on the situation. i may provide some more detailed explanation when I have a bit more time.

 

[wittmanace]

I have to say I'm surprised at the lack of coverage regarding China's response and views. Chinese state media has been slamming the western interference ( as it puts it, not my words) that led to the overthrow of yanukovich, and from what I gather "voice of china" sign offs are on pieces supporting Russia.

As neither a Russian nor Ukrainian (nor pro Kiev) I have to say I am surprised at some of the media analysis too. Last night the reporter for sky news in the Crimea was telling viewers that an important point was that it was unlike Georgia, because "most of Georgia's soldiers were in Iraq at the time". Just an example.

People are also saying that the "polite people" are Russian special forces, whereas even western media blogs from journalists there have said that local Ukrainian soldiers/sailors/marines confirm they recognise them as they are naval infantry from the 810th, which is based in the Crimea and has exercises with their Ukrainian colleagues. I don't doubt that there are others too (7th or 76th vdv elements depending on who you believe, etc)

The extent of misinformation and so forth is very frustrating, and the worst kind is the kind that seems to be intended to ratchet up tensions and alarmism (the way the bbc initially reported the missile test, for example). Let's hope cooler heads prevail, and everyone in the area, regardless of nationality etc stays safe. Big lesson (not news) from all this is that media all round, regardless of where they're from, is the same, selling tensions, alarmism and their own brand of taurine fecal matter.

I do have to say that the unarmed balbek march was ballsy, though if it was ordered by politicians in Kiev, I'd rather have seen the politicians do that march themselves to the Crimea, than risk those servicemen. Hats off to those servicemen, they're a credit. To the politicians who sent them to do that, not so much.

Finally, did anyone else see the report form a journalist there that the "officer who shot in the air" had identified himself as having been in the square "beating fascists with a stick"? If so, I guess some of them are former berkut?

 

[gazzzwp]

Russia fires Topol missile.

US states that they had advance warning which I'm sure is true, but can this be a coincidence?

More sabre rattling NK style?

BBC News - Russia reports ballistic missile test amid Crimea tension

 

[wittmanace]

Russia fires Topol missile.

US states that they had advance warning which I'm sure is true, but can this be a coincidence?

More sabre rattling NK style?

BBC News - Russia reports ballistic missile test amid Crimea tension

It is confirmed as having been planned pre Crimean tensions.

From bbc live updates:
"20:36: A US official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, says Washington received prior notification of Russia's missile test plans, which pre-dated Russia's military movements in Crimea.
This comes in line with Moscow's commitments under the nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the USA, the official adds."

 

[Feanor]

People are also saying that the "polite people" are Russian special forces, whereas even western media blogs from journalists there have said that local Ukrainian soldiers/sailors/marines confirm they recognise them as they are naval infantry from the 810th, which is based in the Crimea and has exercises with their Ukrainian colleagues. I don't doubt that there are others too (7th or 76th vdv elements depending on who you believe, etc)

I think the 31st Para-Assault Brigade. The 7th is more likely then the 76th though since a lot of units from MD South have been used in Crimea. This is one of the things that makes me wonder if an intervention in Eastern Ukraine is planned. West MD and Center MD were activated as part of large scale exercises, while South MD is actually being used in Crimea.

Russia fires Topol missile.

US states that they had advance warning which I'm sure is true, but can this be a coincidence?

More sabre rattling NK style?

BBC News - Russia reports ballistic missile test amid Crimea tension

No. The RVSN launches a lot of missiles every year. This one isn't special.

It is more complicated, or at least more dangerous than the West "growing a pair" as it were. Russia knows and admits that in a conventional conflict the Russian military cannot prevale against NATO/US forces. As a result Russia has adopted a nuclear first strike policy in the event of such a conflict.

This puts the West in a difficult position, since any attempt to intervene in the crisis by deploying troops could result in fighting between Western and Russian forces, which could in turn trigger a Russian nuclear launch. Western leaders have a difficult calculation to make assessing the risk of a nuclear exchange vs. stopping Russia from seizing territory of sovereign nations.

Of interest is the recent commentary from Russia that suggests Russia reserves the right to intervene in the affairs of any of the former Soviet republics, by virtue of the fact that all of them have a large ethnic Russian minority population. This is something which even some of the more Russian-friendly ex-Soviet republics find worrisome.

I think you're right, except it goes further then that. Russia has effectively asserted the right to intervene in the FSU as it pleases, with whatever justification it can scare up. The only standard seems to be a certain level of reasonableness. Which, granted, the actions in Crimea seem to meet. I also think that a lot of this unties Russia's hands in Central Asia in the future.

As for Western reaction, I really have to wonder. Western countries launch much more overt military interventions in much further removed countries. However they play the offended innocence when Russia does it.

 

[BlueRose]

I'd say Russia has very legitimate reasons, for going into the Crimea. I haven't yet to see the BBC, Fox News or CNN address concerns of the large Neo Nazi groups in Western Ukraine.

Alexander Muzychko, for example, leads one of the larger radical groups. He fought as a "Chechen Mercenary" and called on Dokka Umarov for terrorist attacks against the Russians. I find this to be very disturbing and needs to be addressed.
I'm neither pro Russian or pro Nato/Kiev, but this is troubling.

 

[Feanor]

I'd say Russia has very legitimate reasons, for going into the Crimea. I haven't yet to see the BBC, Fox News or CNN address concerns of the large Neo Nazi groups in Western Ukraine.

Alexander Muzychko, for example, leads one of the larger radical groups. He fought as a "Chechen Mercenary" and called on Dokka Umarov for terrorist attacks against the Russians. I find this to be very disturbing and needs to be addressed.
I'm neither pro Russian or pro Nato/Kiev, but this is troubling.

Hehe. Try Sashko Beliy on for size if you're worried about those kinds of persons. He openly called to Chechen terrorists to attack Russia, over the internet. And beat up a procuracy worker on camera. Right Sector and Svoboda are very worrying, to put it mildly. They've been sent a powerful message by the massive pro-Russian demonstrations in the East, but it remains to be seen whether they take the message.

 

[Feanor]

The new Ukrainian government is indignantly demanding that Russia follow through on pre-revolution promises to provide a 2bln USD loan. In other words, two days ago they indignantly accused Russia of invading them, and asked for NATO protection. Now they're indignantly demanding financial assistance from Russia.

Яценюк хочет поÑтроить новые Ð¾Ñ‚Ð½Ð¾ÑˆÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ Ð*оÑÑией и интереÑуетÑÑ Ñудьбой обещанного кредита - ПолитичеÑкие новоÑти Украины - Яценюк Ñнов

Putin gave his first interview on the situation in Ukraine. He mentioned several ugly incidents, including the murder of two Party of the Regions workers by the euro-Maydan protesters, and the violent beating of one of the governors in Ukraine. When he was asked about Russian military intervention he said that Russian and Ukrainian troops are colleagues and would be on the same side of the barricades. He also said, look at Crimea, where not a single shot was fired. The then said that even if he decided to move troops into Ukraine it would be a legitimate humanitarian mission.

He said that 22 thousand Ukrainian troops in Crimea have crossed over to the Autonomy (probably untrue). And made other commentary about the situation in Ukraine, corruption, revolutionary situation, the new governors in Eastern Ukraine (appointed by Kiev) who are corrupt oligarchs. He finished by blaming the West for the situation in Ukraine, calling it an experiment by the West.

*

An interview was given by the commander of the Crimean Berkut. Key points, few Berkut members have come from outside of Crimea (a few from Odessa). When they were in Kiev, their unit lost 1 dead and 30 wounded. He said they would not go elsewhere in Ukraine, he's had enough of dealing with other regions problems. They will supposedly get their first paychecks from Crimea on the 20th.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/3/4/675459.html

Also the exercises of the Russian military have come to an end. Most units seem to be returning to their bases.

http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/4/675410.html

Odessa has decided to reform their dissolved Berkut. This time also under local authority (just like Crimea).

http://vz.ru/news/2014/3/4/675389.html

Also Russia has decided to end the gas price discount for Ukraine.The reason for it is the unpayment of gas debts. Ukraine has until the end of the month to come up with the money. But they can't. And what they had paid earlier came from a Russian credit line. The same one that Russia halted after the revolution.

http://vz.ru/economy/2014/3/4/675535.html