I think the whole problem at the moment in speculating which shipyards are going to have a future (or not), or which shipyards should have investment in expanded facilities will remain up in the air till the new Abbott Government produces it new Defence White Paper due in early/mid 2015.
And that is the problem, there is no consistency from one DWP to the next, going back to the Rudd Governments 2009 DWP, the proposed future new ships/subs for the Navy included:
* 12 new Submarines
* 8 Future Frigates
* 20 larger OCV's (to replace the ACPB's, Mine Warfare and Hydrographic fleets)
* 2 Replenishment ships
* 1 Strategic Sea Lift Ship
* 6 Replacement LCH
That was a fleet of 49 new ships/subs, which the majority could have been built here in Australian yards, but by the time we get to the Gillard Government 2013 DWP, back in May this year, the landscape had changed:
* The Strategic Sea Lift ship seemed to have disappeared, or at least disappeared well into the future (the Government confirmed that the second hand Choules would remain as a permanent part of the amphibious capability).
* The actual number of Future Frigates, originally stated as '8', disappeared (will it still be 8 or is it now 6? Then Def Min Smith was quoted as saying '6' when discussing the Type 26 with the UK Def Min at a press conference earlier this year, so who knows, 6 or 8?).
* The 20 OCV's were put on the back burner and would become a 'longer term' capability and instead in the short term, the ACPB's would be replace with another class of PB's.
* The Government said it would bring forward the replacement of Success and Sirius, (there's one possible bone for the shipbuilding industry).
* And lastly at the same time, the then Def Min stated there would be 'no' 4th AWD, so the possibility of the option of another AWD was gone.
And for some reason we are yet to see the updated 2013 Defence Capability Plan either, it seems to have 'disappeared' completely, maybe it ended up in the shredder at the change of Governments!
In that four year period between the Rudd and Gillard Government DWP's the proposed composition of the fleet changed substantially.
So here we are today, waiting for another 12 months or so for the next DWP to be delivered in 2015, what will it look like? Will it look more like the 2009 DWP or will it look more like the 2013 DWP? Or will it be totally different again?
Would I like to be running a shipyard today and trying to plan what investments should be made for the future in that facility? Hell no!
So other than the possibility of a few bones (eg, some attempt at avoiding the Valley of Death) that may be thrown at the shipyards in the next little while, we will all have to sit back and wait till early/mid 2015.
If only a 10 or 20 year plan could be set in concrete, regardless of changes of Government, anyway that's a dream that I know will unfortunately never happen!