Sadly I have the feeling that what the RNZAF ends up with in terms of airlift will end up being a poor choice, or perhaps a series of poor choices. By that I mean either more money being spent for nn capacity then needed, and/or insufficient total capacity.
Part of the reason I feel this way is due basically to have the airlift replacement programme has been handled. Basically a decade ago it was recognized that the RNZAF airlift needed replacement, so instead of that being started, a SLEP was done on the existing C-130H's and the B727's were retired and replaced with B757's. Now that would have been somewhat acceptable if a long-term airlift replacement programme was running in the background, defining Future Airlifter capability requirements, getting RFI's and RFP's, etc. It still IMO would have been problematic, particularly with the Herc upgrade cost blowout, but better than the situation now.
It is my understanding that the airlift study which is due to be completed with some sort of recommendations by 2015 will more or less fufill many of the early duties of a replacement programme (i.e. airlift requirements, basic platform capacity needed, range/number of platforms, etc). However, given that a 'normally' run programme can take a decade or more between the initial stages defining what is needed/desired and IOC, it is likely that even if the study provides specific platform recommendations, it could easily be 5+ years between the study publication and IOC.
Given that even with the SLEP underway for the C-130H's, the clock is ticking on those aircraft, and it is likely that the future airlifter(s) could not reach IOC until 2020 at the earliest. Basically that means that if everything goes smoothly, NZ could have the first replacement reach IOC right about when the first of the C-130H SLEP's need to either be retired or undergo another SLEP... Taking into account how often military procurement programmes run smoothly... (this applies to all countries, not just NZ) then I would expect delays and/or cost overruns. This is even assuming that whatever recommendations the study makes are available in a timely fashion and for a reasonable amount. If designs have gone out of series production (IIRC the C-17 and C-295 both have sufficient orders booked until towards the end of 2014, after that...) then the recommended platform(s) could cost more because production must be restarted. That or the study results might have to be ignored outright since platforms would have gone out of production.
The way things appear at present, the C-17 and C-295 will cease production in 2014 with the lines likely getting closed some time in 2015 (some long leadtime items may already have gone out of serial production). The study results and any recommendations will come some time in 2015, at which point the RFI and/or RFP process can start. Unless of course Gov't has already selected either the A400M or C-130J (the only two significant Western military airlifters which would be in production at the time) in which case it would just be a matter of pricing, support, and contract negotiations. I suspect at the earliest a contract could be signed would be in ~2016, with 2017-2018 more likely if Gov't has not already made a decision without a RFP. This means the RNZAF finally getting into the order queue, but depending on which airlifter was chosen and what the order bookings look like, it might still be several more years before the first replacement airlifter reachs IOC with a Kiwi roundel.
Now from a military and planning perspective, one of the things I would not wish to see the RNZAF repeat would be a purchase of a civilian airliner as an airlifter. I freely admit that I feel the B757 purchase was and has been a mistake. Quite apart from the fact that the B757's were purchased second-hand having ceased production in 2004, and the lack of a self-defence suite which restricted operations to 'benign' environments... The design itself is suited to transporting a number of personnel and some palletized cargo between functioning airports. The movement of outsized cargo, and/or operations from areas without the cargo handling facilities of an airport, limit the usefulness of the B757 and for that matter basically all civilian airliners. I could be mistaken, but AFAIK the NZDF does not routinely need to move 250+ personnel at a time by long-ranged aircraft. If/when that sort of airlift is required, then the NZDF should charter airliners from Air NZ. This could allow the RNZAF to concentrate on operating airlift which is capable of moving vehicles and pallets without the use of outside kit. IMO anyways.
-Cheers
