Let see if I can summarize TNI-AU fighter jets situations, how it come this way, and What will happen in near future. I try summarize from any public information already circling around, plus some info gathering from local media in here or local forum. Some I wrote already being discussed before in this thread, but try again to summarize it.
For one thing, TNI-AU aim for at least in this decade on having 10 Fighter Sq. Some media in here talking about 10 Flankers sq based on an interview with Miniter of Defense. However, actually it's a misquote. The minister actually said 10 Fighter sq as part of RENSTRA (Strategic Plan). Now, why 10 sq. I believe it's the best that TNI-AU can hope due to several reasons aside budget to procured them.
1. TNI-AU actually have limited Air Based that can permanently support and housed Fast Jets. Right now, Fast jets/Fighter can only be supported by AB in Pontianak (West Kalimantan), Pekanbaru (Sumatra), Jakarta, Madiun, Malang and Makasar. Few other AB can support Fast Jets operations like Biak, Medan, Padang and Natuna, however only temporarily. Other TNI-AU AB actually being used in tandem for commercial airport, in such they can take temporary Fast Jets operations but not for permanent housing.
2. Manning. TNI-AU ability to produced pilots is not that big. The current infrastructure including trainers are getting old, and some of the replacements actually less that what they replace. Grob G 120 which going to replace AS-220 as basic trainers, can not replace them on 1 on 1 basis. So does the KT-1 for T-34C. In short the replacements in my mind actually did not increased the ability for TNI-AU for producing new pilots. In fact, at best they can only maintained the current level. Moreover, there are also in my opinion problem on getting the best supply in future. With booming airline Industry in Indonesia, the current new airline pilots can fetch 5 to 6 times higher salary than 10 years experiences (that rank Captain or Major) of TNI-AU pilots.
In short, aside on securing budgets for procurement new Fighters, or Transports or other aircraft they need to replace the existing Inventory, TNI-AU also has to prepared increasing budget for supporting them and producing Pilots to manned them. Thus considering the challenge, 10 Fighter sq is the best that TNI-AU can hope for foreseeable future.
Lets see the Inventory:
1. Hawk 109/209. This is not the Fighter that TNI-AU wants for, However this is the fighters that TNI-AU stuck with, considering the political situations on the 90's when they're procured. This 2 sq (currently housed in Pontianak and Pekanbaru), being bought due to Soeharto's children business needs rather than TNI-AU need. After Soeharto falls some info on this being trickled down, and show the money that being prepared for additional F-16 being transferred to this deal. Suspicions on Soeharto's children involvement is strong due to involvement of local companies that close to Soeharto children as agent for BAe during this transactions. However Hawks 200 series do meet some TNI-AU need, and considering the situations, current administrations still put decisions to maintain and upgrade them as the latest deal with UK stated. It's not the best solution for TNI-AU, but do provide the TNI-AU with the numbers.
2. F-5E/F. The Fighter housed in Iswahyudi Madiun AB, put for me an interesting question. For one thing TNI-AU and MIndef officially stated on their communique that they plan to replace them. However other information come out including from latest Indo-defence that show effort to upgrade them so at least they keep operational until 2020. I my self believe that will depend on how many F-16 actually TNI-AU end up with.
3. SU-27 SKM/SU-30 MK2. From what I gather so far, I do believe TNI-AU is not really keen for SU-27, they are more keen with SU-30. Just like the fail deal for 12 SU-30 KI during the last days of Soeharto era, the Flankers being look upon as result US blocking for more F-16 (and latter on embargo) due to East Timor situations. However I do believe TNI-AU genuinely want Su-30 to developed the capabilities that RSAF has with F-15E and RAAF done with F-18F. For that the latest batch of Flankers order is 6 SU-30, while the other two previous batch usually consists of 50:50 order of Su-27 and Su-30. The need for Su-27 dissipated with US opening doors for more F-16.
4. Super Tucano. I my self not a big fan for TNI-AU continuing maintain specialized COIN Fighter as replacement for OV-10. However TNI-AU still think they need COIN Fighter to maintain patrol over bordered area especially in Kalimantan/Borneo.
5. F-16 A/B/C/D. Simply in my mind, the real love of TNI-AU. It's capable to meet nearly all their need, relative economics to maintain, and from what I heard, the TNI-AU Planners willing to ditch all other types (except SU-30), if they can get enough of them. The current plan talked about 24 upgraded F-16 C/D (airframes upgrade to Block 32, but electronics/aviation up to block 50 standard), and 10 existing F-15A/B OCU which are also plan to be upgraded soon. Unconfirmed report indicated the plan to get additional Airframes so TNI-AU will operated 48 of them.
In short, TNI-AU did plan to simplified their Fighter Jets operations, however they are facing with numbers problem. Current plan only show 7 sq (1 Flankers, 3 F-16, 2 Hawk 200, and 1 Super Tucano) from expected 10 sq. If 10 sq still aimed to be achieved, realistically it mean keeping 1 sq F-5 operational, plus 1 sq TA/50 as LIFT.
This open for another additional sq, that's open to speculation. I do speculated to fulfill 10 sq target, they will go for another Flankers (SU-30). Thus potentially by 2018-2020 TNI-AU ORBAT will be:
3 Sq F-16
2 Sq Su-27/Su-30
2 Sq Hawk 200/100
1 Sq F-5 E/F
1 Sq Super Tucano as COIN
1 Sq TA-50 as LIFT
The Air Force and Mindef already stated that no further Flankers order beyond existing 16 (1 sq) being procured up until 2014. Which mean another sq of Flankers procurement will be up to next Administrations thus it means it's a very questionable pre-conditions. The continuations of keeping F-5 E/F up to 2020 for me is also questionable, even with some info from Indo-Defence stating otherwise.
For that I do believe by 2020, unless some significant changes happen the ORBAT of TNI-AU:
1 Sq of Su-27/Su30
1 Sq of TA-50 as LIFT
1 Sq of Super Tucano as COIN
2 Sq of Hawk 100/200
2-3 Sq of F-16.
In short 7-8 Sq max.
Well this is my amateur assessment of TNI-AU fast jets/Fighter conditions up to 2020. Feel free to agree or disagree. However my point is, TNI-AU will not conduct any significant change of posture for foreseeable future rather than just updating/replacing their current capabilities.
