Indonesian Aero News

From BAe site:
http://www.baesystems.com/article/B...dvw17ndhBV1sSMpYrqnGrpN2Rq1h26d1yhp!791695071

The contracts enhance the company’s strong global position and ability to deliver the right systems and expertise to support F-16 aircraft operated by U.S. allies.

“We are extremely pleased that Indonesia has called upon BAE Systems to again deliver the systems and services they require to affordably achieve their mission readiness,” said Carl Huncharek, program director for BAE Systems.
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More update for Indonesia upgrade project for 10 existing F-16 A/B Block 15 OCU. Seems now come out claim from BAe that they got contract for the project. HOwever this contradict with LM claim that they will get the contract and will partner with DI/IAe on conducting the project in Indonesia.

I personally suspect that BAe got contract for system integrators, but the one that actually conducting the upgrade work still being discussed. However LM claim that they will bring DI/IAe along on conducting upgrade work share is politically can get strong support from Indonesian political establishment.
 
I find it silly that if we're willing to buy this much on what seems to be only equipment, we're not even trying to develop nor buy on munitions other than indirect munitions such as bombs and rockets (apart from that new JDAM-esque guidance kit that we're developing).

I mean with the F-35's around the corner for SG and AU would it really be too much to prepare our fighters with AAM weapons or maneuverability upgrades for any future confrontation against them, I mean anything can happen right?


Btw. I heard that mindef was complaining to the US about how India received their 22 Apaches for a similar price, is there any truth on that?
 
Vegan-Zombie said:
I find it silly that if we're willing to buy this much on what seems to be only equipment, we're not even trying to develop nor buy on munitions other than indirect munitions such as bombs and rockets (apart from that new JDAM-esque guidance kit that we're developing).

I mean with the F-35's around the corner for SG and AU would it really be too much to prepare our fighters with AAM weapons or maneuverability upgrades for any future confrontation against them, I mean anything can happen right?


Btw. I heard that mindef was complaining to the US about how India received their 22 Apaches for a similar price, is there any truth on that?
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The DSCA announcements show a very similar price:

Indonesia - $1.42b

http://www.dsca.mil/pressreleases/36-b/2012/Indonesia_12-53.pdf

India - $1.4b

http://www.dsca.osd.mil/pressreleases/36-b/2010/India_10-62.pdf

But these are only the basic package details and in the case of India, only "estimated" costs. They do NOT cover every single item to be acquired, nor identify over what time frame the through life support contract is to be for and so on.

At India's price, there has to be a not yet announced support package that will add significantly to the overall price. Everyone has to support their aircraft, some choose to announce those costs up front, some choose not to.

You can't compare these programs without knowing the full details of the package so there's no point getting upset about it. Your country isn't being "ripped off" and neither is India.

Korea's request for 36 AH-64E helicopters is only 14 more aircraft than India's, but is almost 3 times the cost at $3.6 billion:

http://www.dsca.osd.mil/pressreleases/36-b/2012/Korea_12-32.pdf

Again, you can't judge these on the publicly announced price only.
 
Both Australia and Singapore are providers of aid, information and resources to the TNI (including sub-rescue from Singapore), to help the your country grow your capability in a planned manner. There is a strong concerted push by both Australia (transfer of C-130s and funding for counter terrorism), and Singapore (provision of maritime domain awareness, transfer of trainer aircraft and dive boat) to 'partner' with Indonesia and to strengthen the military to military relationships.

I also note that Indonesia and Singapore have a long standing and strategic relationship. Our bilateral defence cooperation has kept both our countries safer, built interoperability, and forged personal friendships. A good example is the Indonesia-Singapore Coordinated Patrols. Our interactions and exchanges also provide both sides with professional operational benefits. SAF Commandos train alongside KOPASSUS in an annual Special Forces exercise. In 1996, RSAF provided remotely piloted vehicle to the TNI for an operation to safeguard the lives of Indonesian and foreign citizens held by a rebel group. The SAF and the TNI have also worked closely together in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions, such as the relief efforts in Aceh following the Boxing Day Tsunami in 2004, Yogyakarta in 2006 and the Padang earthquake in 2009.

Further, RSAF officers undergo C-130 simulator training in Indonesia, while TNI-AU officers train on our F-5, Super Puma, EC-120 helicopter and G-tolerance simulators in Singapore. Somewhere between 50 and 70 pilots from Indonesia come to Singapore every year for simulator training.

Vegan-Zombie said:
I mean with the F-35's around the corner for SG and AU would it really be too much to prepare our fighters with AAM weapons or maneuverability upgrades for any future confrontation against them, I mean anything can happen right?
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I have 2 questions for you:-

Q1: Are Australia and Singapore likely to be Indonesia's enemies?

Q2: Are you saying that TNI-AU needs to growth its capabilities to meet future threats from Australia and Singapore?
 
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As always nice post OPSSG :)

On topic, the procurement practices of the TNI-AU keep baffling me?!? I don't really get why they would spend a lot of money to buy more F-16's. For several reasons I think this is just a bad idea.

First there is always the problem of sanctions, sure things are fine now, but the US is fickle and Indonesia doesn't have the best track record where human rights are concerned and it doesn't look like that has changed significantly (or will in the future).

Secondly as mentioned above, it doesn't look like the TNI are investing in multi-role capabilities for the F-16, and I haven't seen any advanced weapons purchases for the vipers such as AMRAAM or paveway etc. So it seems like a waste to buy upgraded F-16's if they're not really going to be multi-role.

Thirdly, instead of rationalizing their fighter fleet they are diversifying it. I think the F-16 is a fantastic aircraft, and one of the best and most cost effective weapons platforms available today. I just think it's not right for the TNI-AU, they should go for the SU-27/30 family all the way for their high end option. If you look at the size of Indonesia, the vast distances and coastlines make the Sukhoi a vastly superior option in my regard. Furthermore if you operate one platform instead of two, you can invest much more into developing its capabilities and save on operating costs.

Personally I think they should go for an SU-30 only fleet, and invest in aerial refueling, ground attack, anti shipping weapons and some massive AEW&C capability.

What also seems weird is the purchase of the Tucano's AND Kt1's, I get that the Tucano's are bad ass and I also get that Korea is an important partner that makes great products. But JUST CHOOSE ONE FFS :S ?!? The KT1 is also offered in an attack version, and the Super Tucano is a very very good trainer aircraft. Why spend money on infrastructure and life cycle support and upgrades for two small fleets while they could spend money on one larger fleet, again saving money (no conversion necessary and emergency surplus capability for example).

It just seems to me that they're spending money left and right and they don't have much more to show for it than some rudimentary air defense capability...

(ps: Oh and the old F-16's are so old it must be getting very expensive keeping those in the air)

I don't know I might be stupid, but it seems to me like they're just buying to buy something and be friends with everyone. Not really looking at what's the best and smartest thing to buy and what the best place to buy it from. (just my 2cents though)
 
OPSSG said:
I have 2 questions for you:-

Q1: Are Australia and Singapore likely to be Indonesia's enemies?

Q2: Are you saying that TNI-AU needs to growth its capabilities to meet future threats from Australia and Singapore?
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Q1: As I said, anything can happen, with the geopolitical state of the world shifting from one place to another I feel its best to prepare and be ready then face what I assume to be regional technological military dominance of the FPDA nations (I mean really, we're surrounded by you guys) and China.

Q2: If conflict does arise, then yes. Currently we have about 34 fighters in our inventory along with 8 different kinds of missiles, compared to Singapore's 96 F-16C/D's, 24 F-15SG's, and 49 F-5E/F's and Australia's 95 F/A-18A/B/E/F's plus the weapons and equipment for all the aircraft. This and the 100 F-35's for both Singapore and Australia, and the budget problems of KF-X program gives us a large air-superiority imbalance.


And while I'm at it, what is with our armed forces and the ridiculous paint schemes, why not low visibility grey? Like the marine vehicles for example, using camouflage paint and then paint bright, big, yellow letters on the side of them is just... redundant...
 
Toptob said:
As always nice post OPSSG :)

On topic, the procurement practices of the TNI-AU keep baffling me?!? I don't really get why they would spend a lot of money to buy more F-16's. For several reasons I think this is just a bad idea.

First there is always the problem of sanctions, sure things are fine now, but the US is fickle and Indonesia doesn't have the best track record where human rights are concerned and it doesn't look like that has changed significantly (or will in the future).

Secondly as mentioned above, it doesn't look like the TNI are investing in multi-role capabilities for the F-16, and I haven't seen any advanced weapons purchases for the vipers such as AMRAAM or paveway etc. So it seems like a waste to buy upgraded F-16's if they're not really going to be multi-role.

Thirdly, instead of rationalizing their fighter fleet they are diversifying it. I think the F-16 is a fantastic aircraft, and one of the best and most cost effective weapons platforms available today. I just think it's not right for the TNI-AU, they should go for the SU-27/30 family all the way for their high end option. If you look at the size of Indonesia, the vast distances and coastlines make the Sukhoi a vastly superior option in my regard. Furthermore if you operate one platform instead of two, you can invest much more into developing its capabilities and save on operating costs.
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Firstly, this purchase is all about rationalising their fighter fleet. The existing and new F-16 fleet, will comprise the bulk of the TNI-AU's air combat capability. The lower end counterpart if you will, to the higher end SU-30 and is an expansion of their current in-service F-16 capability.

This acquisition IS covering the replacement of other aircraft including their F-5 fleet, so they are consolidating aircraft types, albeit somewhat slowly.

Secondly, it is prudent to acquire the aircraft and commence upgrading them and THEN worry about your weapon and support contracts. No point placing weapon and support contracts if the main aircraft contract doesn't go through for whatever reason.

The F-16 contract seems to have gone through now, so I expect in due course we'll see expanded weapons, support and training contracts let out. We've already seen the first one with the August 2012 contract for additional AGM-65 Maverick air to ground missiles to equip the existing and future fleet.

TNI-AU F-16's will therefore, even without additional weapons acquisition and with the addition of Sniper XR or Litening targetting pods (my bet is Sniper XR), have air to air, close air support and precision guided air to ground weapons capabilities, within this fleet. I have little doubt the TNI-AU will be looking to expand this capability in years to come.

Thirdly, TNI-AU cannot afford to replace it's entire fighter fleet with SU-27 or SU-30 fighters. These are big aircraft that are expensive to buy and expensive to operate. Upgraded F-16's provide a much better compromise between an expansion of overall capability and the ability to afford sufficient numbers to replace older assets and provide genuine combat capability available for deployment.

Personally I think they should go for an SU-30 only fleet, and invest in aerial refueling, ground attack, anti shipping weapons and some massive AEW&C capability.
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I'm sure they'd love to, the point being they so far haven't been able to afford it. The F-16 acquisition and upgrade gives them a capable fighter they are able to afford, in large enough numbers to replace even older, less useful assets.

I believe the TNI-AU is studying it's options for an AEW&C capability. Whether funding will be available is another story.

(ps: Oh and the old F-16's are so old it must be getting very expensive keeping those in the air)
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Yes, which is why they are getting service life extensions, they are being re-engined and having other improvements made.

I don't know I might be stupid, but it seems to me like they're just buying to buy something and be friends with everyone. Not really looking at what's the best and smartest thing to buy and what the best place to buy it from. (just my 2cents though)
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It's not stupidity, it's just not looking at all the relevant factors. TNI-AU for many years has maintained an F-16 capability. They know the capability very well. They also know the SU-30 and that they need to rationalise their aircraft types as far as possible within their budget, whilst simultaneously improving their capability.

Indonesia is getting 24 F-16 fighters granted to them as excess defence articles. In other words: free. They are paying for upgrades and regeneration of these aircraft, as well as an advanced targeting pod capability all for the same money as about 6 or so more Flankers would cost.

This way Indonesia gets to maintain a fleet of 34 F-16 Block 25+ fighters, which are of a reasonably advanced standard (AMRAAM capable, precision targetting capable, datalink capability for networked operations etc) in addition to it's fleet of 16 Flankers. If it chose the 6 Flanker option for the same money, it'd have a fleet of 22 Flankers and it would likely have to retire the F-16 and F-5 fleet without replacement, meaning TNI-AU would not have 50 reasonably capable fighters as it will under this plan, it would have 22 reasonably capable fighters (or so)...
 
Vegan-Zombie said:
Q1: As I said, anything can happen, with the geopolitical state of the world shifting from one place to another I feel its best to prepare and be ready then face what I assume to be regional technological military dominance of the FPDA nations (I mean really, we're surrounded by you guys) and China.

Q2: If conflict does arise, then yes. Currently we have about 34 fighters in our inventory along with 8 different kinds of missiles, compared to Singapore's 96 F-16C/D's, 24 F-15SG's, and 49 F-5E/F's and Australia's 95 F/A-18A/B/E/F's plus the weapons and equipment for all the aircraft. This and the 100 F-35's for both Singapore and Australia, and the budget problems of KF-X program gives us a large air-superiority imbalance.


And while I'm at it, what is with our armed forces and the ridiculous paint schemes, why not low visibility grey? Like the marine vehicles for example, using camouflage paint and then paint bright, big, yellow letters on the side of them is just... redundant...
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This isn't counting the additional 24 F-16's, plus the upgrades they've signed up for I presume?

This will provide a fleet of 34 F-16's + 16 Flankers for your higher end air combat capabilities in years to come. I believe the TNI-AU ARE interested in acquiring additional Flankers of at least in another squadron of 16 beyond the present force too, so numbers-wise you aren't as far "behind" as you might think.

66 fighters, will allow TNI-AU to field 3 full strength operational squadrons, with leftover training and maintenance pool aircraft, only a single squadron short of what Australia maintains.

Yes Australia and Singapore may be acquiring largish numbers of F-35's (though I doubt either will reach 100) but these will be to replace existing fighters for the most part.

I can't see Singapore or Australia's air combat inventories growing substantially within the next decade in terms of numbers.
 
ADMk2 said:
The F-16 contract seems to have gone through now, so I expect in due course we'll see expanded weapons, support and training contracts let out. We've already seen the first one with the August 2012 contract for additional AGM-65 Maverick air to ground missiles to equip the existing and future fleet.


This way Indonesia gets to maintain a fleet of 34 F-16 Block 25+ fighters, which are of a reasonably advanced standard (AMRAAM capable, precision targetting capable, datalink capability for networked operations etc) in addition to it's fleet of 16 Flankers. If it chose the 6 Flanker option for the same money, it'd have a fleet of 22 Flankers and it would likely have to retire the F-16 and F-5 fleet without replacement, meaning TNI-AU would not have 50 reasonably capable fighters as it will under this plan, it would have 22 reasonably capable fighters (or so)...
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Do you know the amount and version of the AGM-65s ordered?
As far as i know TNI-AU has now an unknown number of AGM-65D and G....

I'm still confused about the upgrade of the 24 additional (+ 6 airframes for spares) F-16C/D, will they become Block 32 or 52?

BTW, the order of the six Sukhois cost us $300-350jt if im not wrong, the acquisition of the 24+6 F-16 (including the upgrade, engines, spares and additional equipment) cost us around $750jt.
 
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Toptob said:
As always nice post OPSSG :)

On topic, the procurement practices of the TNI-AU keep baffling me?!? I don't really get why they would spend a lot of money to buy more F-16's. For several reasons I think this is just a bad idea.

First there is always the problem of sanctions, sure things are fine now, but the US is fickle and Indonesia doesn't have the best track record where human rights are concerned and it doesn't look like that has changed significantly (or will in the future).

Secondly as mentioned above, it doesn't look like the TNI are investing in multi-role capabilities for the F-16, and I haven't seen any advanced weapons purchases for the vipers such as AMRAAM or paveway etc. So it seems like a waste to buy upgraded F-16's if they're not really going to be multi-role.

Thirdly, instead of rationalizing their fighter fleet they are diversifying it. I think the F-16 is a fantastic aircraft, and one of the best and most cost effective weapons platforms available today. I just think it's not right for the TNI-AU, they should go for the SU-27/30 family all the way for their high end option. If you look at the size of Indonesia, the vast distances and coastlines make the Sukhoi a vastly superior option in my regard. Furthermore if you operate one platform instead of two, you can invest much more into developing its capabilities and save on operating costs.

Personally I think they should go for an SU-30 only fleet, and invest in aerial refueling, ground attack, anti shipping weapons and some massive AEW&C capability.

What also seems weird is the purchase of the Tucano's AND Kt1's, I get that the Tucano's are bad ass and I also get that Korea is an important partner that makes great products. But JUST CHOOSE ONE FFS :S ?!? The KT1 is also offered in an attack version, and the Super Tucano is a very very good trainer aircraft. Why spend money on infrastructure and life cycle support and upgrades for two small fleets while they could spend money on one larger fleet, again saving money (no conversion necessary and emergency surplus capability for example).

It just seems to me that they're spending money left and right and they don't have much more to show for it than some rudimentary air defense capability...

(ps: Oh and the old F-16's are so old it must be getting very expensive keeping those in the air)

I don't know I might be stupid, but it seems to me like they're just buying to buy something and be friends with everyone. Not really looking at what's the best and smartest thing to buy and what the best place to buy it from. (just my 2cents though)
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ADMk2 has already give his answer/comment on your points.
But as you said, the only problem of the F-16 is the chance of embargoes, thats also one of the reasons TNI-AU has a squadron of Sukhois.

For some reasons TNI-AU keep the number and type of weaponry (AAMs, ASMs) secret. I can not believe that the Sukhois still only using dumb bombs and the 30 mm gun.

But indeed buying the KT-1B and then the EMB-314 (instead of the KO-1/KA-1 armed advanced trainer variant) doesnt make any sense.
 
Sandhi Yudha said:
Do you know the amount and version of the AGM-65s ordered?
As far as i know TNI-AU has now an unknown number of AGM-65D and G....
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Don't know about previous orders, but the latest order was for an initial batch of 18 missiles, plus the opening of an FMS case for the weapons, which allows for additional orders, but without publicly announcing the numbers involved...

Exact inventories of weapons are usually a closely guarded national secret, so I'd guess the real answer is that you have enough to meet training and some limited operational needs, with the ability to buy additional weapons if needed for anything more serious.


I'm still confused about the upgrade of the 24 additional (+ 6 airframes for spares) F-16C/D, will they become Block 32 or 52?
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As I read it, all TNI-AU F-16 aircraft are being upgraded to a Block 32+ standard. I say + because they will have additional capability than the traditional Block 32, to allow for integration of a modern targetting pod, plus I expect far more modern processors, datacards, flight recorders and so on. Block 32 was first rolled out in 1987 or so, so many of the capabilities will be greater now, simply because of the increased capability of modern components etc.

The important aspects are that these aircraft will have good flight performance (big mouth air intakes and "big motor" F100 or F110 engines) plus a modern targetting, communications and EW system, with a reasonably modern AMRAAM and precision weapons capability.

BTW, the order of the six Sukhois cost us $300-350jt if im not wrong, the acquisition of the 24+6 F-16 (including the upgrade, engines, spares and additional equipment) cost us around $750jt.
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I believe that was the price for the SU-27/SU-30 order. I'm fairly certain the full six SU-30 order was a couple of hundred million dollars more expensive, plus weapons and support must have gone on top of that.

Regardless, there's no real way the TNI-AU could achieve the fighter coverage it will have with the SU-27/30 and F-16 combo, that they could with an SU-27/30 only fleet, the exact reason the TNI-AU has taken this path.

Interim upgraded F-16's will hold them over well until the KF-X, assuming that pans out well...
 
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koxinga said:
The first T-50i for Indonesia, in the Elang Biro livery.
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Shit, i saw these pics on skyscrapercity.com, but you was quicker than me in posting them here.....
BTW, it Elang Biru.
Is the T-50i the official designation for these airplanes? Not TA-50?
 
Sandhi Yudha said:
Shit, i saw these pics on skyscrapercity.com, but you was quicker than me in posting them here.....
BTW, it Elang Biru.
Is the T-50i the official designation for these airplanes? Not TA-50?
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My apologies for the typo. I am not sure if the T-50i designation it is official although. As I understand, these TNI-AU bound are in T/A-50 configuration, replacing the Hawks as trainers with a secondary attack role.

T
 
Let see if I can summarize TNI-AU fighter jets situations, how it come this way, and What will happen in near future. I try summarize from any public information already circling around, plus some info gathering from local media in here or local forum. Some I wrote already being discussed before in this thread, but try again to summarize it.

For one thing, TNI-AU aim for at least in this decade on having 10 Fighter Sq. Some media in here talking about 10 Flankers sq based on an interview with Miniter of Defense. However, actually it's a misquote. The minister actually said 10 Fighter sq as part of RENSTRA (Strategic Plan). Now, why 10 sq. I believe it's the best that TNI-AU can hope due to several reasons aside budget to procured them.

1. TNI-AU actually have limited Air Based that can permanently support and housed Fast Jets. Right now, Fast jets/Fighter can only be supported by AB in Pontianak (West Kalimantan), Pekanbaru (Sumatra), Jakarta, Madiun, Malang and Makasar. Few other AB can support Fast Jets operations like Biak, Medan, Padang and Natuna, however only temporarily. Other TNI-AU AB actually being used in tandem for commercial airport, in such they can take temporary Fast Jets operations but not for permanent housing.

2. Manning. TNI-AU ability to produced pilots is not that big. The current infrastructure including trainers are getting old, and some of the replacements actually less that what they replace. Grob G 120 which going to replace AS-220 as basic trainers, can not replace them on 1 on 1 basis. So does the KT-1 for T-34C. In short the replacements in my mind actually did not increased the ability for TNI-AU for producing new pilots. In fact, at best they can only maintained the current level. Moreover, there are also in my opinion problem on getting the best supply in future. With booming airline Industry in Indonesia, the current new airline pilots can fetch 5 to 6 times higher salary than 10 years experiences (that rank Captain or Major) of TNI-AU pilots.

In short, aside on securing budgets for procurement new Fighters, or Transports or other aircraft they need to replace the existing Inventory, TNI-AU also has to prepared increasing budget for supporting them and producing Pilots to manned them. Thus considering the challenge, 10 Fighter sq is the best that TNI-AU can hope for foreseeable future.

Lets see the Inventory:

1. Hawk 109/209. This is not the Fighter that TNI-AU wants for, However this is the fighters that TNI-AU stuck with, considering the political situations on the 90's when they're procured. This 2 sq (currently housed in Pontianak and Pekanbaru), being bought due to Soeharto's children business needs rather than TNI-AU need. After Soeharto falls some info on this being trickled down, and show the money that being prepared for additional F-16 being transferred to this deal. Suspicions on Soeharto's children involvement is strong due to involvement of local companies that close to Soeharto children as agent for BAe during this transactions. However Hawks 200 series do meet some TNI-AU need, and considering the situations, current administrations still put decisions to maintain and upgrade them as the latest deal with UK stated. It's not the best solution for TNI-AU, but do provide the TNI-AU with the numbers.

2. F-5E/F. The Fighter housed in Iswahyudi Madiun AB, put for me an interesting question. For one thing TNI-AU and MIndef officially stated on their communique that they plan to replace them. However other information come out including from latest Indo-defence that show effort to upgrade them so at least they keep operational until 2020. I my self believe that will depend on how many F-16 actually TNI-AU end up with.

3. SU-27 SKM/SU-30 MK2. From what I gather so far, I do believe TNI-AU is not really keen for SU-27, they are more keen with SU-30. Just like the fail deal for 12 SU-30 KI during the last days of Soeharto era, the Flankers being look upon as result US blocking for more F-16 (and latter on embargo) due to East Timor situations. However I do believe TNI-AU genuinely want Su-30 to developed the capabilities that RSAF has with F-15E and RAAF done with F-18F. For that the latest batch of Flankers order is 6 SU-30, while the other two previous batch usually consists of 50:50 order of Su-27 and Su-30. The need for Su-27 dissipated with US opening doors for more F-16.

4. Super Tucano. I my self not a big fan for TNI-AU continuing maintain specialized COIN Fighter as replacement for OV-10. However TNI-AU still think they need COIN Fighter to maintain patrol over bordered area especially in Kalimantan/Borneo.

5. F-16 A/B/C/D. Simply in my mind, the real love of TNI-AU. It's capable to meet nearly all their need, relative economics to maintain, and from what I heard, the TNI-AU Planners willing to ditch all other types (except SU-30), if they can get enough of them. The current plan talked about 24 upgraded F-16 C/D (airframes upgrade to Block 32, but electronics/aviation up to block 50 standard), and 10 existing F-15A/B OCU which are also plan to be upgraded soon. Unconfirmed report indicated the plan to get additional Airframes so TNI-AU will operated 48 of them.

In short, TNI-AU did plan to simplified their Fighter Jets operations, however they are facing with numbers problem. Current plan only show 7 sq (1 Flankers, 3 F-16, 2 Hawk 200, and 1 Super Tucano) from expected 10 sq. If 10 sq still aimed to be achieved, realistically it mean keeping 1 sq F-5 operational, plus 1 sq TA/50 as LIFT.

This open for another additional sq, that's open to speculation. I do speculated to fulfill 10 sq target, they will go for another Flankers (SU-30). Thus potentially by 2018-2020 TNI-AU ORBAT will be:

3 Sq F-16
2 Sq Su-27/Su-30
2 Sq Hawk 200/100
1 Sq F-5 E/F
1 Sq Super Tucano as COIN
1 Sq TA-50 as LIFT

The Air Force and Mindef already stated that no further Flankers order beyond existing 16 (1 sq) being procured up until 2014. Which mean another sq of Flankers procurement will be up to next Administrations thus it means it's a very questionable pre-conditions. The continuations of keeping F-5 E/F up to 2020 for me is also questionable, even with some info from Indo-Defence stating otherwise.

For that I do believe by 2020, unless some significant changes happen the ORBAT of TNI-AU:

1 Sq of Su-27/Su30
1 Sq of TA-50 as LIFT
1 Sq of Super Tucano as COIN
2 Sq of Hawk 100/200
2-3 Sq of F-16.

In short 7-8 Sq max.
Well this is my amateur assessment of TNI-AU fast jets/Fighter conditions up to 2020. Feel free to agree or disagree. However my point is, TNI-AU will not conduct any significant change of posture for foreseeable future rather than just updating/replacing their current capabilities.
 
I agree great explanation Ananda thanks. However I do have one question after this. Can you describe/explain the procurement process and rationale behind the purchase of the Tucano's?
How did they come to buy this aircraft? Was there a competition? And why didn't they double up on the KT1, upgrade the ones they have and buy additional ones? That way the training fleet would have been increased, and the COIN capacity would be much greater.
I know the Tucano has a more powerful engine, built in machine guns and greater payload. And I am not an expert in COIN. But even though that all sounds pretty sweet to me, buying KT1-C/KA-1 would yield 16 more possible training aircraft and a bigger pool of both training and COIN aircraft. I would think that should help availability rates for both roles. Also (and again I'm no expert) how much ordnance is really necessary for the TNI-AU COIN operations, and how much of these operations are done on a regular basis.
Are they used as surveillance aircraft? If so that seems a waste of airframe hours, because it seems to me the TNI-AU has more appropriate aircraft available for such tasks.
All these things may be obvious, but I'm really interested into the rationale behind this procurement and how it was explained within the Indonesian military aerospace community.
(Thnks in advance and again, Ananda your posts are always very good and very informative)
 
Ananda,

What TNI-AU aircraft are permanently based at Natuna? In the 1990's there were Hawks based there but I'm not sure if they were permanently there or just on deployments?
 
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