Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad

[My2Cents]

The second and equally important point is the role of Moscow if & when all-out war invoked by Turkey alone. Here Turkey needs full military backing (not the mare words of alliance & partnership) of NATO to counter Russians.

All out war by Turkey on the Assad regime in Syria would be counterproductive, especially as it would almost certain to be perceived by the Syrian population as an attempt to revive the Turkish Ottoman Empire. That would result in a 3 way war between Turkey, the rebels, and the Assad regime.

Russia does not have an effective means of intervening militarily in the event of Turkey taking any actions. Assuming no direct support for Turkey by NATO:

• Any attack by Russia on Turkey would result in the immediate loss of the access between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea for Russian shipping and goods. This would have dramatic impact on the Russian economy, and the loss of oil exports would be compounded by Europe shifting its long term energy focus from Russia to Africa as a result.
• The only land routes to Turkey go through Georgia and Azerbaijan, neither of whom are on good terms with Russia, and offer good terrain for the defenders in those countries and Turkey.
• Naval attacks by Russia would prompt a massive naval response by NATO if it threatens the tanker traffic across the Black Sea, independent of any Turkish request for support. The Russians do not have an advantage in ships or firepower versus the Turkish navy, and Turkey controls the only means to reinforce.
• Russian air attacks across the Black Sea would face the largest non-USA air force in NATO, with over 200 F-16 fighters. Russia can exceed this only by stripping fighters other fronts.
• Russian naval power in the Mediterranean Sea will be cut off from its bases on the Black Sea in event of a conflict with Turkey. The Russian base at Tartus can offer only limited logistical support, and is vulnerable to Turkish attack.

 

[explorer9]

All out war by Turkey on the Assad regime in Syria would be counterproductive, especially as it would almost certain to be perceived by the Syrian population as an attempt to revive the Turkish Ottoman Empire. That would result in a 3 way war between Turkey, the rebels, and the Assad regime.

Russia does not have an effective means of intervening militarily in the event of Turkey taking any actions. Assuming no direct support for Turkey by NATO:

• Any attack by Russia on Turkey would result in the immediate loss of the access between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea for Russian shipping and goods. This would have dramatic impact on the Russian economy, and the loss of oil exports would be compounded by Europe shifting its long term energy focus from Russia to Africa as a result.
• The only land routes to Turkey go through Georgia and Azerbaijan, neither of whom are on good terms with Russia, and offer good terrain for the defenders in those countries and Turkey.
• Naval attacks by Russia would prompt a massive naval response by NATO if it threatens the tanker traffic across the Black Sea, independent of any Turkish request for support. The Russians do not have an advantage in ships or firepower versus the Turkish navy, and Turkey controls the only means to reinforce.
• Russian air attacks across the Black Sea would face the largest non-USA air force in NATO, with over 200 F-16 fighters. Russia can exceed this only by stripping fighters other fronts.
• Russian naval power in the Mediterranean Sea will be cut off from its bases on the Black Sea in event of a conflict with Turkey. The Russian base at Tartus can offer only limited logistical support, and is vulnerable to Turkish attack.

Your points are quite valid in the context of Geo-strategy and military maneuvering. All out war may turn it in to Arab vs Turks and keeping in the mind the Ottoman history, it may turn into counterpunch for the Turks. The possible scenario is the GCC, Arab league political & military backing to Turks to hammer the Al-Assad hard.
Also first point of my previous post is equally important.

 Access from black sea to Mediterranean goes through Turkish straits and that choke point is firmly in control of the Turks.
 We should keep in mind that the regime is now changed in Georgia and the recent pool result are much to the encouragement for Russians (keep in mind Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipe line).
 Yes Turkey possesses around 250 F16 & some Phantoms and its Navy equipped with all the modern war machines and so to in good numbers but I still feel it is not to match with Russians.
 Turkish dependence on Russian & Iranian energy supplies makes it vulnerable ( supplier can bear the losses but consumer may die without supply)

The scenario suggest that Turkey with Arabs and NATO will carve out safe zone in 2 to 4 sectors along with its border to Syria and let the foot soldiering done by FSA & other fighters.

 

[explorer9]

Your points are quite valid in the context of Geo-strategy and military maneuvering. All out war may turn it in to Arab vs Turks and keeping in the mind the Ottoman history, it may turn into counterpunch for the Turks. The possible scenario is the GCC, Arab league political & military backing to Turks to hammer the Al-Assad hard.
Also first point of my previous post is equally important.

 Access from black sea to Mediterranean goes through Turkish straits and that choke point is firmly in control of the Turks.
 We should keep in mind that the regime is now changed in Georgia and the recent pool result are much to the encouragement for Russians (keep in mind Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipe line).
 Yes Turkey possesses around 250 F16 & some Phantoms and its Navy equipped with all the modern war machines and so to in good numbers but I still feel it is not to match with Russians.
 Turkish dependence on Russian & Iranian energy supplies makes it vulnerable ( supplier can bear the losses but consumer may die without supply)

The scenario suggest that Turkey with Arabs and NATO will carve out safe zone in 2 to 4 sectors along with its border to Syria and let the foot soldiering done by FSA & other fighters.

Turkish military has fired artillery on fourth straight day into Syria shortly after a mortar round fired from Syria hit the southeastern Turkish border village of Akcakale.

 

[Beatmaster]

Turkish military has fired artillery on fourth straight day into Syria shortly after a mortar round fired from Syria hit the southeastern Turkish border village of Akcakale.

My2Cents is pretty much right on the money here.
And i do not see a all out war with Syria either but it needs to be said that Russia's ability to help its ally Syria grows smaller with the day.
If Turkey would go against Syria, even if its just a coordinated attack to establish some sort of buffer then this would be a major blow to Assad, and given the rather good navy and rather good air-force of the Turks and their ability to be able to support their troops this close at home would render Russian support ineffective unless Russia goes all the way and even then Turkey is pretty much able to hold their own for a pretty long time.
Keep in mind Turkey is one of the biggest forces in the EU and has the ability to support such a force.
Another pretty important thing to consider is that Turkey has deep ties with the US in terms of hosting bases and such, so any Russian involvement would also deeply hurt the US presence in the region.
But lets not go that way, Turkey has the sovereign right to defend itself with measured strength and a all out attack will not be supported by the west UNLESS Syria or any other aggressor pulls the trigger first.
In other words if Turkey would stick to a rational and measured response to the Syrian threat then everything will be pretty much ok and Turkey will enjoy the support of its allies.
And if Russia would feel the need to intervene to protect Assad then Turkey could be a really big problem for them as Turkey is still a member of NATO and the EU and with big bases in Italy and Greece NATO and the EU could lock down access to Turkey and Syria.
So to speak the best way for Russia to support Assad is to play the UN council like they have been doing for the past years.

Also as My2Cents said the Turkish government voiced loads of criticism in terms of Syria and Iran and the western approach to deal with it and thus made some friends and enemies in the process.
And he is right that nobody will be happy with a new ottoman empire idea.
On the other hand it would solve the western problem in Syria, not to mention the fact is that Turkey can be considered the gate way to the middle east, and its strategic importance is undeniable in the region, so one could say that Erdocan needs to please and play both sides to keep a balance at home without causing to much of a stir as this would cause havoc at home.

But in the end of the day Ottoman history or not, I believe that Turkey can defend itself and if needed will defend them selfs successfully.
There will be some major problems for Turkey in doing so but they will and can pull trough.

And i share the idea with you that Russia might be a superior foe on paper, But Turkey has the benefit of the home turf and the ability to cut down support to the blacksea fleet in such way that for Russia to be success full its going to take weeks if not months to overcome that and to relocate their logistic network to overcome this.
And by that time Turkey will have harvested enough support to stop Russian involvement. As any rational mind would know that any step further will bring the point of no return to close for comfort.

But i am pretty sure that others like My2Cents can explain this much better then i could.
Still i think i got a solid point here.

 

[explorer9]

My2Cents is pretty much right on the money here.
And i do not see a all out war with Syria either but it needs to be said that Russia's ability to help its ally Syria grows smaller with the day.
If Turkey would go against Syria, even if its just a coordinated attack to establish some sort of buffer then this would be a major blow to Assad, and given the rather good navy and rather good air-force of the Turks and their ability to be able to support their troops this close at home would render Russian support ineffective unless Russia goes all the way and even then Turkey is pretty much able to hold their own for a pretty long time.
Keep in mind Turkey is one of the biggest forces in the EU and has the ability to support such a force.
Another pretty important thing to consider is that Turkey has deep ties with the US in terms of hosting bases and such, so any Russian involvement would also deeply hurt the US presence in the region.
But lets not go that way, Turkey has the sovereign right to defend itself with measured strength and a all out attack will not be supported by the west UNLESS Syria or any other aggressor pulls the trigger first.
In other words if Turkey would stick to a rational and measured response to the Syrian threat then everything will be pretty much ok and Turkey will enjoy the support of its allies.
And if Russia would feel the need to intervene to protect Assad then Turkey could be a really big problem for them as Turkey is still a member of NATO and the EU and with big bases in Italy and Greece NATO and the EU could lock down access to Turkey and Syria.
So to speak the best way for Russia to support Assad is to play the UN council like they have been doing for the past years.

Also as My2Cents said the Turkish government voiced loads of criticism in terms of Syria and Iran and the western approach to deal with it and thus made some friends and enemies in the process.
And he is right that nobody will be happy with a new ottoman empire idea.
On the other hand it would solve the western problem in Syria, not to mention the fact is that Turkey can be considered the gate way to the middle east, and its strategic importance is undeniable in the region, so one could say that Erdocan needs to please and play both sides to keep a balance at home without causing to much of a stir as this would cause havoc at home.

But in the end of the day Ottoman history or not, I believe that Turkey can defend itself and if needed will defend them selfs successfully.
There will be some major problems for Turkey in doing so but they will and can pull trough.

And i share the idea with you that Russia might be a superior foe on paper, But Turkey has the benefit of the home turf and the ability to cut down support to the blacksea fleet in such way that for Russia to be success full its going to take weeks if not months to overcome that and to relocate their logistic network to overcome this.
And by that time Turkey will have harvested enough support to stop Russian involvement. As any rational mind would know that any step further will bring the point of no return to close for comfort.

But i am pretty sure that others like My2Cents can explain this much better then i could.
Still i think i got a solid point here.

Yes no doubt about that, you got solid points in your analysis of the current situation of Syrian crisis. My2cent’s observation is very methodical too. I have no doubt on the strength, ability and the capability of Turkish armed forces. I just raised few major main points

Huge Turkish dependence on Russian energy supplies (almost 65% of total gas consumed and some % of oil too)

Significant ethnic and religious minority of Kurds & Alevis ( Alevis even support Al-Assad) who openly oppose the war ( look CHP’s & DPP’s vote against the motion in Parliament). Country is not united when it comes to war.

Ottoman baggage (for that Turks need open support of Saudi Arabia & Egypt)

If Russia enters in the Warfield then how NATO reacts (just mare words or clear cut action), we must remember the Georgian adventurism and the brutal Russian response not long ago, though Turkey is not Georgia yet Russian is Tough nut to handle.

I am also of the view that the Turkish response will be limited to carve out the safe & no fly zone only.

 

[swerve]

... Yes Turkey possesses around 250 F16 & some Phantoms and its Navy equipped with all the modern war machines and so to in good numbers but I still feel it is not to match with Russians.....

No match for Russia, but it doesn't need to be. That's what being a member of NATO is good for.

 

[My2Cents]

Huge Turkish dependence on Russian energy supplies (almost 65% of total gas consumed and some % of oil too)

Don’t put too much faith in this, Russia has discovered the hard way that the use of its ‘gas weapon’ is a double edged sword. Since their last tiff with the Ukraine showed GASPROM working hand-in-glove with the Russian government western Europe has become very concerned about its dependency on Russian gas. The response including greater emphasis on offshore and north African sources, and backing away from plans to expand the Nord Stream pipeline (which gives Russia the ability to bypass the eastern European states).

For Russia to be seen to use their ability to withhold gas exports to politically influence Turkey would be the kiss of death for their future European export plans, with a huge impact on the Russian economy.

 

[Beatmaster]

No match for Russia, but it doesn't need to be. That's what being a member of NATO is good for.

On paper yes, but in reality Russia will have a major problem getting around the Turkish navy and their air force (not to mention their land based assets) so personally the Turkish Airforce will be a major challenge for Russia.
Keep in mind Turkey is NOT Georgia it actually will fight back

Also it has been said that turkey has 200 aircraft.
Just did look on their webpage and they got nearly 350+ combat aircraft.
Turkish Airforce Official Site
[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Turkish_military_aircraft"]List of active Turkish military aircraft - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

Ill assume these numbers are correct.

Alright back on topic, question is does Russia want to help Syria and can Russia help Syria? I mean we all know that Syria is the last "cold war" puppet of Russia, but with Turkey being put into a position where it might have to take action against Syrian aggression it becomes increasingly more difficult for Russia to justify any help towards Syria it all, and the cost of this help/ diplomatic hassle might be a to big of a burden.
So honestly i could see Russia redraw from helping Syria as Assad sort of put himself in a position where he cannot be helped anymore.

 

[explorer9]

Don’t put too much faith in this, Russia has discovered the hard way that the use of its ‘gas weapon’ is a double edged sword. Since their last tiff with the Ukraine showed GASPROM working hand-in-glove with the Russian government western Europe has become very concerned about its dependency on Russian gas. The response including greater emphasis on offshore and north African sources, and backing away from plans to expand the Nord Stream pipeline (which gives Russia the ability to bypass the eastern European states).

For Russia to be seen to use their ability to withhold gas exports to politically influence Turkey would be the kiss of death for their future European export plans, with a huge impact on the Russian economy.

export & import is give and take and yes, Turkey itself a big hydrocarbon market and it is a energy hub. Major supplies go through its land and territorial waters. After regime change in Ukrain and now in Georgia made Russians comfortable to handle other issues with ease than before.

 

[explorer9]

On paper yes, but in reality Russia will have a major problem getting around the Turkish navy and their air force (not to mention their land based assets) so personally the Turkish Airforce will be a major challenge for Russia.
Keep in mind Turkey is NOT Georgia it actually will fight back

Also it has been said that turkey has 200 aircraft.
Just did look on their webpage and they got nearly 350+ combat aircraft.
Turkish Airforce Official Site
List of active Turkish military aircraft - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Alright back on topic, question is does Russia want to help Syria and can Russia help Syria? I mean we all know that Syria is the last "cold war" puppet of Russia, but with Turkey being put into a position where it might have to take action against Syrian aggression it becomes increasingly more difficult for Russia to justify any help towards Syria it all, and the cost of this help/ diplomatic hassle might be a to big of a burden.
So honestly i could see Russia redraw from helping Syria as Assad sort of put himself in a position where he cannot be helped anymore.

It is always being said about F-16's that Turkey posses, apart from that they have old mid life upgrade F-4 & F-5's so over all they have around 400 combat aircraft.

Turkey should take along Egyptian & Saudi Arabian armed forces and conduct joint operation against Al-Assad forces. Use NATO umbrella as a bulwark to contain Russians.

 

[the concerned]

I think if Turkey where forced to conduct full military operation s against Syria then Saudi arabia won't be far behind maybe even Jordan then Russia would be pushed to intervene.Even Iran has started to voice concerns with regards to the Syrian uprising they definetly won't back Syria against turkey.

 

[explorer9]

I think if Turkey where forced to conduct full military operation s against Syria then Saudi arabia won't be far behind maybe even Jordan then Russia would be pushed to intervene.Even Iran has started to voice concerns with regards to the Syrian uprising they definetly won't back Syria against turkey.

Syria is quagmire much more complex than Libya. Ethnic, Religious, Geo-strategic mix of Syria is difficult to handle by any regional power alone. The aftermath of the conflict will be messy and there will be long lasting chaos. A new diplomatic proposal is augmented by Turkish external affairs minister that Al-Assad would be replaced by his deputy president, Farook Al-Shara for the transition period

 

[STURM]

Why are we even comparing Turkey's military capabilities to that of Russia?
As far as I can make out, Russia has not even indicated that it will get militarily involved in the event of Turkish intervention in Syria!!

It would be more interesting to discuss the long term implications of a Turkish clash with Syria, e.g., how will it affect the Kurdish situation, how will it affect Turkey's long term relations with the Arabs, would intervention signal Turkey's rise as a regional power, etc,? With Turkey already calling for regime change and being a haven for Syrian rebels, in the event of a clash, will the Turks decide to go all the way to remove Assad, with the tacit support of the West?

A point everyone should bear in mind is that in historically, the Arabs have always been cautious of Turkey, this is due to the fact that the Ottoman empire ruled what is now called Jordan, Iraq, Palestiane, etc. And this is precisely why until recently, Turkey has always had better defence ties with Israel rather than with the Arabs. In the short term, the Arabs may welcome a clash between Syria and Turkey in the hope that Turkey will do away with Assad - which is something the Arabs are unable and unwilling to openly do - but in the long term do Arab states like Saudi and Egypt welcome the idea of a Turkey which has assumed the status of a regional superpower or onr that is more vocal and has incresing regional influence?

 

[explorer9]

Why are we even comparing Turkey's military capabilities to that of Russia?
As far as I can make out, Russia has not even indicated that it will get militarily involved in the event of Turkish intervention in Syria!!

It would be more interesting to discuss the long term implications of a Turkish clash with Syria, e.g., how will it affect the Kurdish situation, how will it affect Turkey's long term relations with the Arabs, would intervention signal Turkey's rise as a regional power, etc,? With Turkey already calling for regime change and being a haven for Syrian rebels, in the event of a clash, will the Turks decide to go all the way to remove Assad, with the tacit support of the West?

A point everyone should bear in mind is that in historically, the Arabs have always been cautious of Turkey, this is due to the fact that the Ottoman empire ruled what is now called Jordan, Iraq, Palestiane, etc. And this is precisely why until recently, Turkey has always had better defence ties with Israel rather than with the Arabs. In the short term, the Arabs may welcome a clash between Syria and Turkey in the hope that Turkey will do away with Assad - which is something the Arabs are unable and unwilling to openly do - but in the long term do Arab states like Saudi and Egypt welcome the idea of a Turkey which has assumed the status of a regional superpower or onr that is more vocal and has incresing regional influence?

We are discussing the emerging scenarios of Syrian crisis and the recent upheaval caused by border shelling form Syrians and the Turkish response for the same. It is the sixth consecutive day of the shelling from both the sides is continued unabated. Russians have urged, advised and warned on numerous occasions for the dire consequences of direct foreign military intervention in Syria.

We have previously discussed the impact of Turkish intervention and its aftermath on regional politics especially how would Arabs take the Turkish mentoring and Kurdish resurgence. You are advised to have looked on earlier posts

 

[STURM]

Russians have urged, advised and warned on numerous occasions for the dire consequences of direct foreign military intervention in Syria.

You are advised to have looked on earlier posts

I have looked at the previous posts.

What I was questioning was the comparison that was made between the Turkish military and that of Russia's, as I'm of the opinion that it has no direct bearing to the current mess in Syria and the increasing likehood that things will flare up with Turkey. I'm fully aware of the warnings Russia has made but as far as I'm aware, these warnings were aimed at the potential for things getting out of hand with devastating consequences first for the region, then further afield, and was not a direct warning as to the likehood of direct Russian military intervention. Although Syria is exremely important to Russia, it is extremely unlikely that Russia would intervene militarily against Turkey as this would lead to all out war with NATO and would not be to Russia's interests at all.

Everything is wholly dependent on what Syria might do next in response to rebel activity along the border and whether or not Turkey is actually eager to assume a greater role in the crisis and is looking at a greater pretext for doing so. I would expect that Syrian government forces along the border have been told to be very selective in returning fire and have has strict rules of engagements imposed on them as the last thing Assad needs is for an open conflict with Turkey. And it goes without being said that rebel forces along the border, will in all certainty do all they can and encourage Syrian govrnment forces to hit back at them, in the hope that this will draw the Turks in.

Though this article is not about the potential of a clash between both countries and its implications, it does make for interesting reading.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-syrian-revolution-a-report-after-15-months-of-conflict

 

[explorer9]

I have looked at the previous posts.

What I was questioning was the comparison that was made between the Turkish military and that of Russia's, as I'm of the opinion that it has no direct bearing to the current mess in Syria and the increasing likehood that things will flare up with Turkey. I'm fully aware of the warnings Russia has made but as far as I'm aware, these warnings were aimed at the potential for things getting out of hand with devastating consequences first for the region, then further afield, and was not a direct warning as to the likehood of direct Russian military intervention. Although Syria is exremely important to Russia, it is extremely unlikely that Russia would intervene militarily against Turkey as this would lead to all out war with NATO and would not be to Russia's interests at all.

Everything is wholly dependent on what Syria might do next in response to rebel activity along the border and whether or not Turkey is actually eager to assume a greater role in the crisis and is looking at a greater pretext for doing so. I would expect that Syrian government forces along the border have been told to be very selective in returning fire and have has strict rules of engagements imposed on them as the last thing Assad needs is for an open conflict with Turkey. And it goes without being said that rebel forces along the border, will in all certainty do all they can and encourage Syrian govrnment forces to hit back at them, in the hope that this will draw the Turks in.

Though this article is not about the potential of a clash between both countries and its implications, it does make for interesting reading.

The Syrian Revolution: A Report After 15 Months of Conflict | Small Wars Journal

The comparison was not drawn for the possible Russo-Turkish war but to analyze the threat perception emerging from the current situation. We must bear in mind that “in international diplomatic parlays” threats play a very important role in preventing the military aggression against the relatively weaker nation. Russian warnings have played a major in the survival of basher Al-Assad regime; it is almost two years since the uprising started and we have seen only the talks of military intrusion. Russians prevented the regional powers including Turkey against the direct military intervention inside the Syria. In all likelihood the Russians would not like to intervene militarily to save Al-Assad regime.

You rightly said that the Syrian government would not like to enter into direct military conflict with the Turks bearing in mind the superior military machines of Turks and their own fragile situation inside Syria. What is important for me to determine the role of NATO, if and when Turkish military marches inside the Syrian territory either for creating a safe zone or all out war (if situation arises)?

Thanks for sharing the article, yes a good one with proper analysis.

 

[the concerned]

Would Turkey really need to invade Syria,its been stated that the main advantage that the Syrian forces have over the rebels is airpower and heavy weaponry.So taking the airforce out would create a level playing field.

 

[explorer9]

Would Turkey really need to invade Syria,its been stated that the main advantage that the Syrian forces have over the rebels is airpower and heavy weaponry.So taking the airforce out would create a level playing field.

Yes deep land invasion is not required as they have FSA and other groups for foot soldiering. First they need to destroy Syrian air defense they posses self-effacing and efficient air defense Missiles and anti aircraft guns that is in good numbers. Then comes the Syrian air force and that is very weak in compare to modern Turkish Air force.

 

[My2Cents]

Would Turkey really need to invade Syria,its been stated that the main advantage that the Syrian forces have over the rebels is airpower and heavy weaponry.So taking the airforce out would create a level playing field.

Depends on your definition of ‘invade’.

To suppress the Syrian Air Force they will need to first take out the anti-aircraft. With a sufficient quantity of the appropriate weapons it is not to difficult to eliminate the fixed defenses, but it may be necessary to insert small groups of troops on the ground to track down the mobile units if they are being sneaky (i.e. a Scud hunt).

Speaking of which, Syria has a large ballistic missile inventory which has not been used. Most of these are fairly short ranged (Israel is a small country), but there are still some that can reach well into Turkey, and for political as well as practical reasons must be taken out ASAP. That probably means even more troops on the ground to locate them. This was not a problem in the Libyan intervention.

So how many troops do you need on the ground inside Syria before it becomes an invasion?
You can bet that there will be Press outlets pumping the ‘invasion’ meme for all it is worth, including some that are not Syrian.

 

[Beatmaster]

Depends on your definition of ‘invade’.

To suppress the Syrian Air Force they will need to first take out the anti-aircraft. With a sufficient quantity of the appropriate weapons it is not to difficult to eliminate the fixed defenses, but it may be necessary to insert small groups of troops on the ground to track down the mobile units if they are being sneaky (i.e. a Scud hunt).

Speaking of which, Syria has a large ballistic missile inventory which has not been used. Most of these are fairly short ranged (Israel is a small country), but there are still some that can reach well into Turkey, and for political as well as practical reasons must be taken out ASAP. That probably means even more troops on the ground to locate them. This was not a problem in the Libyan intervention.

So how many troops do you need on the ground inside Syria before it becomes an invasion?
You can bet that there will be Press outlets pumping the ‘invasion’ meme for all it is worth, including some that are not Syrian.

Heey 2cent, you are deffo right here, but given the fact that Syria is a puppet of Russia and given their internal problems i think the question should be asked if Assad is able to counter Turkey's efforts.
I mean yes the ballistic assets of Assad pose a real danger, on the other hand how much fight is there left inside Assad.
Fighting his own people is one, but fighting a superior force given the instability is another thing specially with the internal opposition within the government will add enough difficulty for Assad to do anything i believe.
Personally i could see his whole government structure split into fractions and thus creating a new civil war within the current civil war and given the international stance i think its save to say that Assad his days are numbered.
Even with the support of Russia its going to be nearly impossible for Assad to keep his head above the water.
So to speak his ship is sinking and a war with Turkey (Small or big) will deffo punch some new holes into his sinking ship.
So regardless the strategic efforts by Russia to protect Assad, its not wroth it for Russia to keep protecting him, so i could see Russia swing around and have Assad replaced by a more western accepted key figure, who at the same time has a warm link with Russia.
This would be the least painful option, because the alternative (Either by force or by waiting it out) is in nones interest.

Just saying Assads ship is sinking question is when? and when is Russia going to write Assad off as a "lost" case, specially with even Iran criticizing Syria.
Many analysts say that Assad has started digging his own grave, so one could say that Assad is already beyond the point of no return.